India Last Week #75
A round-up of research & reportage on India across climate, energy, foreign policy, politics & more over the last week
Climate, Energy & Environment:
“India is harnessing some of the cheapest solar in the world to power its industrial rise – bypassing an expensive, insecure, fossil-burning interlude. Where China and the West took the long road to the energy future, India is taking a shortcut. India’s shortcut has consequences, both at home and abroad. It offers a faster, cheaper route to growing electricity. It means greater energy sovereignty at an earlier stage of development… Over the last two decades, the cost of core electrotech like EVs, solar panels and batteries have plummeted. To put that in perspective, in 2004, when China crossed 1,500 kWh of electricity use per capita, coal generation was about ten times cheaper than nascent solar photovoltaics (PV). What followed was predictable: over the next decade, coal made up nearly 70% of the growth in China’s electricity generation. In contrast, as India crosses 1,500 kWh of electricity use per capita, now, solar-plus-storage costs around half as much as new coal plants… The energy revolution runs along two tracks. First, renewables coupled with battery storage are taking over electricity supply. Second, electricity is taking over energy demand; everything that can economically electrify will go electric, from transport to industry and buildings. On both fronts, India is achieving greater success at earlier stages of development… In the race to curb oil imports, India is already far ahead of where China was at the same stage of development. Road transport oil demand per capita is significantly lower, thanks first to smaller, lighter vehicles and now to the rise of electric vehicles (EVs).” Read more: Kingsmill Bond and Sumant Sinha, Ember
“India’s ambitious electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage targets have accelerated lithium battery demand, underscoring the strategic importance of lithium-ion cells, almost all of which India currently imports, primarily from China. To reduce this dependence, the Ministry of Heavy Industries (MHI) launched the Advanced Chemistry Cell Production Linked Incentive (ACC PLI) scheme in October 2021 to catalyse domestic cell manufacturing… The 50-gigawatt hours (GWh) ACC PLI tenders attracted strong interest from domestic players, with auctions heavily oversubscribed. Ola Electric, Reliance New Energy, Hyundai Global, and Rajesh Exports emerged as the selected beneficiaries. However, the initial 50GWh allocation remains incomplete after Hyundai Global Motor pulled out of its 20GWh allocation from the first tender. This prompted the MHI to re-tender 10GWh in the second auction, while reserving the remaining 10GWh for a future tender… As of October 2025, progress under the ACC PLI scheme has been limited. Only 2.8% (1.4GWh) of the targeted 50GWh capacity has been commissioned within the stipulated timeline, entirely by Ola Electric. However, this 1.4GWh, too, represents only a partial commissioning of Ola Electric’s awarded 20GWh capacity and is yet to meet the DVA requirements needed to qualify for incentive claims… Beneficiaries have also encountered major supply chain and implementation bottlenecks that have significantly delayed facility installation. India lacks a mature cell manufacturing ecosystem, including critical mineral refining and cell component production, which leaves the industry almost entirely dependent on imports from China.” Read more: JMK Research
“The government on Wednesday unveiled the draft National Electricity Policy, 2026, proposing strict norms for power tariff determination, a framework for sweeping structural reforms to improve the financial health of discoms, financing requirements, and suggestions on long-term generation and transmission planning, nearly two decades after it was first issued… Emphasising the role of state regulators for bringing tariff discipline, the policy has recommended that tariffs fully reflect costs without creating regulatory assets. On the longstanding issue of the delay in annual tariff revision, the ministry has suggested the tariff be linked to an appropriate index to enable automatic annual revisions if state regulators do not pass the order… Despite numerous government bailouts, discoms remain financially strained, creating the need for a more transparent, cost-reflective tariff structure, the ministry said… For renewable energy, the draft policy calls for enforcing consumption obligations an enable mechanisms such as virtual PPAs… State regulators have been advised to ensure parity between renewables and conventional power sources by 2030 to maintain grid stability.” Read more: Economic Times
“China’s rapid electrification has been hailed as a miracle. By some measures, India is even further ahead. The nation is electrifying faster and using fewer fossil fuels per capita than China did when it was at similar levels of economic development, according to a new report from the think tank Ember… Even as it boosts green electricity, India continues to rely heavily on fossil fuels. The government is considering new plans that would double India’s coal power capacity by 2047, and the country’s oil consumption growth was set to outpace China’s last year. But the South Asian economy’s coal and oil consumption per capita is a fraction of what China’s was at similar income levels. In absolute terms, India’s fossil fuel consumption is growing at slower rates than China’s today… In India, 5% of all new car sales in 2024 were electric. The country’s per-capita consumption of oil for road transport is 60% lower than when China hit that milestone. As a result, Bond says that India’s peak road-oil consumption per person will likely never reach Chinese levels… With the US and Europe continuing to add exclusions for Chinese-linked electrotech, countries like India will have an incentive to invest in their own manufacturing capacity.” Read more: Akshat Rathi, Bloomberg
“The ground is impossibly flat, white with salt, and largely uninhabited – a no man’s land where not even a cellphone signal can reach… Then, without warning, the horizon transforms. Rows of hulking electricity towers stretch into the distance, convoys of trucks carry turbine blades longer than plane wings, and a crop of solar panels rises from the marshy ground. This is Khavda, where India is building the world’s largest renewable energy project. Spanning 726 sq km – about seven times larger than the city of Paris – the Khavda Renewable Energy Park is expected to generate 30 gigawatts of power by combining solar and wind on the same site in western India… Most of the Khavda project is being developed by Adani Green Energy and represents a huge outlay for the wider Adani Group, which is also India’s largest importer of coal and operates some of the more controversial coal mining operations around the world… The constraint, Konda says, is not the pace of renewable construction, but how electricity is delivered once it is built, through a grid “built around thermal plants” which must now accommodate power that is variable by nature. At Khavda, that constraint is being addressed through engineering choices, beginning with combining solar and wind on a single site.” Read more: Stuti Mishra, Independent
Economy:
“The goal set by Narendra Modi, the prime minister, of being a developed economy by 2047, the centennial of independence, has seemed far off. The world’s most populous country has remained peripheral to the global economy. But it is now showing remarkable promise. All the more so, given the headwinds it faces. In August Donald Trump, America’s president, singled India out for a tariff of 50%, combining a 25% “reciprocal” levy with a further 25% as punishment for buying heavily discounted Russian crude oil. Private-sector investment is sluggish. Foreign investors have been selling out of India’s highly valued stockmarket… Yet a combination of three things—luck, macroeconomic policy and structural reform—is reason for optimism, in both the short and long term. In the year to the third quarter, gdp grew by 8.2%, much faster than expected… A programme of fiscal consolidation has cut the budget deficit from 9.2% of gdp in fiscal 2021 (when it was bloated by pandemic spending) towards a target of 4.4% for fiscal 2026. Excluding interest payments, the deficit will be only around 0.9% of gdp… Even so, at the budget the government may reveal it has hit its 4.5% target. It will switch to a more forgiving goal, based on the ratio of debt to gdp. It aims to reduce this to 50% by 2031, from around 56% today. The Reserve Bank of India (rbi), too, has shifted its stance. Sanjay Malhotra, the governor since December 2024, has been readier than his predecessor to let the rupee depreciate.” Read more: The Economist
“Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget on Sunday. The budget is being presented in the backdrop of headwinds from US’s 50% tariff on Indian exports and promised tailwinds from the Indo-EU Free Trade Agreement. These developments raise a larger question about the Indian economy: the importance of exports, both overall and product-specific, for India’s economic growth… A comparison of compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of GDP, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and export of goods and services show that GDP growth was the highest in the period between 2000-01 to 2010-11 if one were to compare long-term growth… Export growth could not retain its momentum in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and overall growth and investment have been subdued too despite the push in government capex in the last few years. The short point is, unless exports rediscover their mojo, private investment or overall growth will not rise sustainably… The long-term growth numbers shown above do not have more recent export numbers. Quarterly numbers on goods exports show that merchandise exports have recovered after what can be termed as a lost decade between the 2008 crisis and the pandemic.” Read more: Roshan Kishore, Hindustan Times
“India will seek to triple the nation’s exports by 2035 by boosting manufacturing through structural changes rather than with hefty spending, according to two government officials. In Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third such attempt, the South Asian nation is prioritising manufacturing in 15 sectors, including high-end semiconductors, metals and the labour-intensive leather industry, aiming to lift India’s growth and boost annual goods exports to $1.3 trillion, they said… “In past years, several government initiatives to boost manufacturing growth have led to modest, incremental progress at best. What is needed is a bold, focused and cohesive strategy to drive transformative change,” according to a government official involved in drafting the policy. The government will spend about 100 billion rupees ($1 billion) to build infrastructure for about 30 manufacturing hubs across the targeted sectors while providing grants of $218 million for advanced areas such as chips and energy storage, said the officials, who asked not to be named because they were not authorised to speak to media… The new structure, called the National Manufacturing Mission, was announced in the budget last year but details were not disclosed. Details could be announced in the budget on February 1, but that will be decided closer to the date, the officials said… It will oversee the building of manufacturing hubs for the 15 sectors, and work with state governments to assure steady and cheap electricity supplies for such units, the sources said.” Read more: Nikunj Ohri and Sarita Chaganti Singh, Reuters
Foreign Policy & Security:
“Tensions between India and Pakistan — two countries that President Donald Trump claimed had been fighting for 1,500 years — escalated rapidly over a few days in May 2025. On May 7–10, the two countries fought an 88-hour war after India accused Pakistan of orchestrating a gruesome terrorist attack in April that killed 26 civilians… In the aftermath of the conflict, analysts noted some basic takeaways. India was willing to cross new lines, take on more risk, and — following lessons from Ukraine and the Middle East — conduct air and missile strikes on targets deep inside its adversary’s territory. New Delhi also seemed to underestimate Islamabad’s capabilities and resolve, which reportedly resulted in some loss of assets even while India asserted it too downed several Pakistani assets… As has been argued in these pages, India’s brief but consequential war with Pakistan — known as Operation Sindoor — may turn out to be a crucible for longer-term Indian strategic and operational thinking. In the weeks and months since the war, five distinct lessons have emerged. First, New Delhi believes it can fight a conventional war below the nuclear threshold. Second, it has developed a preference for “non-contact” warfare. Third, the Indian military has identified — and is beginning to remedy — gaps in its capabilities. Fourth, New Delhi has reassessed the nature of the China-Pakistan threat. Finally, India reaffirmed its strategic ties with Russia.” Read more: Sameer Lalwani, Shailender Arya, and David Brostoff, War on the Rocks
“Peace initiatives usually arrive gift-wrapped in lofty language. Trump’s Board of Peace (BoP) for Gaza has arrived with a bill – a $1bn price tag for permanence, surprising global leaders and seasoned diplomats. A far distance from UN Security Council Resolution 2803 of Nov 2025, where members had authorised a BoP to oversee Gaza’s postwar transition. The resolution had imposed clear limits - end date of Dec 31, 2026, unless renewed, and requested six-monthly reporting to UNSC… But what Trump announced is a permanent fixture, the BoP charter emerging as the core issue… It reads less like a Gaza mandate, more like a roving instrument: portable across theatres, unbounded in time, and heavily dependent on its chair, Trump. The optics are corrosive. Especially the “pay-to-stay” provision that ties permanence beyond a single term to a $1bn contribution. This risks turning a peace mechanism of burden-sharing into an entry fee. It begins to resemble a private club rather than a public international body… India has direct stakes in West Asian stability, from energy and diaspora welfare to shipping routes and investment flows. A credible path to reconstruction is in India’s interest. But precedents travel, and a peace model built on invitation-only membership, pay-to-stay permanence, and personalised authority is not in India’s long-term interest.” Read more: Syed Akbaruddin, Times of India
“In the wake of the National Security Strategy (NSS) document issued by the US White House on December 25, 2025, came the National Defense Strategy (NDS) document released by the US Department of War on January 23, 2026. The NDS elaborates a roadmap to implement the NSS, though it has some new points of emphasis, some notable elaborations of key objectives and several glaring omissions which reflect altered priorities or impulsive, personality-driven initiatives… The NDS reaffirms the NSS priorities to homeland security and the overarching importance of hemispheric security, with the US exercising hegemonic control over its western hemisphere, ranging from the Arctic in the north (including Greenland) to the southern tip of Latin America. Curiously, Antarctica is not mentioned, though its strategic importance is self-evident. One wonders why. The next priority reflects the NSS in focussing on the Indo-Pacific. However, there is a more detailed description of the posture towards China but no reference to other key partners and allies such as Japan, Australia and India and the role of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)… Taken together, these articulations in the NDS can hardly be reassuring to Taiwan and US allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific. To the extent that a shared concern over the expansion of Chinese power in the Indo-Pacific was a significant component in the perceived strategic convergence between India and the US over the past 25 years, the emerging and more positive equation between the US and China will necessitate significant readjustments in our foreign policy posture.” Read more: Shyam Saran, The Tribune
“While there is much discourse on the China–India relationship in New Delhi, such debates are rarely heard in Beijing. Hence, a visit to Beijing last month to discuss China’s role in South Asia was revealing… Beijing tends to see China–India relations through the prism of its more consequential relationship with the US. One interlocutor said the “changing logic of the US–India relationship” (a reference to the recent deterioration in relations between New Delhi and Washington) presented an “opportunity” to improve China–India relations. New Delhi does not see its relations with Beijing and Washington in such zero-sum terms. Interestingly, Washington embraces the idea of an India–China–US triangle, and the Pentagon’s most recent annual report on China refers to Beijing’s efforts to “capitalize on decreased tension” with New Delhi to “prevent the deepening of U.S.-India ties”… Most surprising was that my Chinese counterparts felt differences between the countries had deeper philosophical roots… India now faces a superpower that is both its leading economic partner and its most significant security threat. Navigating this challenge will require a far more comprehensive, whole-of-government approach than employed so far.” Read more: Chietigj Bajpaee, The Interpreter
People & Politics:
“After India challenged its authority to issue summonses, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has moved a federal court to bypass diplomatic channels and allow service on Gautam Adani and Sagar Adani via their US counsel and email. “The SEC does not expect service to be completed through the Hague Convention,” the agency declared in a motion filed Wednesday (January 21) before the US District Court for the Eastern District of New York, effectively abandoning the treaty-based route it has pursued since February 2025. The move marks a shift in the agency’s 14-month effort to formally notify the Indian billionaires of charges stemming from a $750 million bond offering that raised approximately $175 million from US investors. It also signals that nearly a year of back-and-forth with India’s Ministry of Law and Justice has reached a dead end… On December 14, 2025, the SEC received letters from the Indian Ministry of Law and Justice, dated November 4, citing a new and unexpected objection. These letters were also attached as exhibits to the motion… This was the second time India’s Ministry of Law and Justice had refused to serve the documents. The first rejection came in April 2025, citing missing seals and signatures that the SEC said were not required under the Hague Convention.” Read more: Devirupa Mitra, The Wire
“The Trump administration has pushed a sweeping policy agenda intended to hinder immigration. This has included a move in September to increase the fees on H-1B visa applications to $100,000 apiece, a staggering tenfold hike, along with other changes that have made the program less desirable to employers. Foreign-born residents are facing increasing hostility from Washington, regardless of their legal status. For many, the long-term viability of a career in Silicon Valley seems less certain than ever… Days after President Donald Trump’s announcement about the H-1B program, Bahl pledged support for students and professionals facing visa uncertainty. Through his venture fund, Titan Capital, he offered financial backing, mentorship and a bridge to India’s thriving tech ecosystem. His inbox was immediately flooded with more than 60 startup proposals from US-based founders…India is much more prepared to take advantage of an influx in talent than it was when Bahl returned home. Its infrastructure is more robust and capital more abundant; tech and AI-fueled startups are making striking public-market debuts, and entrepreneurs are bolder in ambition and global in their outlook… To bypass the US immigration system, some global corporations that once relied on visas to hire Indian engineers in the US are hiring them in India instead.” Read more: Saritha Rai, Bloomberg
“Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, was humbled in 2024. His party lost its national majority and had to start ruling in coalition. Policymaking looked listless for most of the next 12 months… Yet adversity, and the need to satisfy his coalition partners, seem to have made Mr Modi more pragmatic. Though he still indulges in divisive rhetoric, he has taken fewer actions to goad or bully India’s Muslims since his electoral setback. Instead, he has concentrated on economic reforms, which should help the country maintain its zippy growth rate… Mr Modi seems to recognise that keeping growth high will require more work. In the past few months his government has unveiled bankruptcy reforms, which should shorten drawn-out disputes, and simplifications to India’s bewildering national value-added tax, under which a bag of popcorn could attract one of three different rates… Yet as America grows increasingly protectionist and erratic, India’s reformist turn deserves praise. Mr Modi could have responded to his setback at the ballot box, or to Mr Trump’s tariffs, in a much less constructive manner. Indians seem to have recognised that building a whizzier economy is the best way to gain global clout.” Read more: The Economist
“Grief, rage and despair are the usual responses to a tragedy. Personal loss often gives way to collective outrage against systemic lapses, and this emotion often turns into despair and cynicism. The establishment response, too, is formulaic… Now, a young man has drowned in a pool of water in a city touted as a modern urban settlement. There was no reason for the water to have accumulated at the site of the tragedy. On a foggy night, his car went out of control and fell into the pool because a railing was broken. There was no reason for him to drown in the swamp except that a crude, ill-prepared system did not know how to save a person crying desperately for help… A familiar thread runs through the tragedies at the Delhi coaching centre, Indore and Noida — the lack of responsiveness and accountability. The system, it seems, is a mute witness to its own culpability. When officials say they will “fix” responsibility, they only mean they will “shift” accountability as they did in the coaching centre case, where an SUV driver was arrested for causing water to flood the basement. Unresponsiveness and lack of accountability are not the only problems. A large part of the shortcomings is structural. Scant regard for routine administration is a feature of governance today. The focus on development and “concrete” achievements has become an important part of assessing the performance of administrators. As a result, they tend to neglect routine work. Proper maintenance of records, time-bound disposal of files and periodic inspection of subordinate offices by supervisory officers receive low priority from an administration obsessed with “showcasing” achievements.” Read more: Ashok Lavasa, Indian Express
Tech:
“India’s chief economic adviser called on the government to set age-based limits on access to social media apps to counter “digital addiction”, cautioning against use of platforms by children in the largest user market for Meta and YouTube. A shift in India would align with a growing global trend. Australia last year became the first nation to enforce a social media ban for children under 16. France’s National Assembly on Monday backed legislation to ban children under 15 from social media and Britain, Denmark and Greece are studying the issue… “Policies on age-based access limits may be considered, as younger users are more vulnerable to compulsive use and harmful content,” the adviser, V. Anantha Nageswaran, wrote in the survey. “Platforms should be made responsible for enforcing age verification and age-appropriate defaults,” he added… The recommendations of the adviser are not binding on the Indian government, but are typically considered seriously in policy deliberations by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration… Cheap telecom data plans in recent years have increased usage of social media apps. Among the youth who use a smartphone, over half reported using digital platforms for education, and around 75 per cent use them for social media, the survey report said. “Digital addiction negatively affects academic performance and workplace productivity due to distractions, ‘sleep debt’, and reduced focus,” Nageswaran said.” Read more: Manoj Kumar and Munsif Vengattil, Reuters
“Somwanshi was a star student from a small village in the farm-dotted countryside. Nine months prior, he’d landed a coveted job at Ola Krutrim, an artificial intelligence startup worth $1 billion. He was among the ranks of India’s globally renowned tech industry, which is estimated to be worth around $280 billion and employs more than 5 million people. The industry runs the spectrum from top-end firms like Krutrim to massive consulting and outsourcing companies. Getting a job at Krutrim was a big deal for Somwanshi and his community. Banners went up in his village, congratulating him. He sent funds from his first paycheck to his parents, who built a small temple on their land in gratitude for their son’s good fortune… But something has gone awry in the industry Somwanshi was entering. Eighty-three percent of India’s tech workers suffer from burnout, according to one recent survey. One in four clocks over 70 hours a week… Some of India’s tech leaders, meanwhile, are advocating 70-hour and even 90-hour workweeks, instead of the national legal maximum of 48. Tech workers paint a picture of mounting anxiety. From junior software engineers to senior project managers, workers at firms across the industry told Rest of World they were buckling under the burden of deadlines. They had little time for themselves or their families, and worried about layoffs. Most said they feared conditions would only worsen with the rise of AI… Employees and union leaders point to a series of suicides among tech workers as further evidence of a workforce in distress. Suicides are linked to multiple factors and can’t be traced to a single cause — but the cases have added to the sense of crisis within the industry. A Rest of World analysis of local news articles found 227 reported cases of suicides among Indian tech workers between 2017 and 2025.” Read more: Parth MN, Rest of World