India Last Week #49
A round-up of research & reportage on India across climate, energy, foreign policy, politics & more over the last week
Climate, Energy & Environment -
“Coal India will set up clean energy projects of around 4.5 gigawatts at a cost of 250 billion rupees (about $3 billion), it said on Thursday, as it aims to achieve net zero carbon emissions from its operations. The state-owned miner has been diversifying beyond the polluting fuel, which is still key for the country's power needs, as a part of the wider national aim to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2070. The coal giant targets to supply clean energy through solar and wind energy projects to the upcoming green ammonia facilities of AM Green Ammonia (India). It did not give a date for building these projects. AM Green, in which the founders of India's Greenko Group have large stakes, targets to produce 5 million tons per annum (MTPA) of green ammonia by 2030… India aims to raise its coal-fired capacity by 80 gigawatts by 2031–32, from the current 222 GW, to meet growing demand for power, and, in parallel, the country is also aiming to add at least 500 GW of clean energy by 2030, against 172 GW currently.” Read more: Reuters
“It added that as India's largest industrial and power-consuming state, Maharashtra is expected to witness a 6.5 per cent annual increase in power demand… At the heart of this transition is a strong push for 38 GW of renewable energy (16 GW distributed RE for agriculture) with storage (pump storage and distributed battery storage), solar and wind hybrid energy, with tariff commitments as low as ₹2.54 per unit for solar energy… The broader transition plan is expected to attract investments worth ₹3.3 lakh crore by 2030. Significantly, 75 per cent of this investment will be within Maharashtra and will be largely driven by the private sector.” Read more: Energyworld
“Based on our consultations with RE companies, communities, and policymakers for the responsible RE framework, the majority of the Indian developer ecosystem is at the ‘complier’ level, which our framework describes as level zero. This means that most developers simply follow the laws they are required to follow… Responsible deployment would mean that an RE project has been conceptualised and implemented in a people-centric manner—from its siting to design, execution, and operation. Such projects enhance community value throughout the deployment process… Any large infrastructure project typically requires an Environmental and Sustainability Impact Assessment (ESIA). But in India, RE projects are classified as white industries—essentially those that do not degrade the environment—so they are not obliged to conduct ESIA studies. Yet several investors insist on them.” Read more: Joenna Rebello Fernandes, India Development Review
“India, the fourth largest global solar market for installation, breached the 100 GW total installed solar capacity mark in February 2025 to become the fourth country to achieve this remarkable milestone globally. More than half of this 100 GW has been installed in only the last three years… The rapid pace of installations, backed by a significant project pipeline, has been possible due to factors including a cohesive policy and regulatory ecosystem along with vibrant industry and streamlined implementation… In 2024, India’s solar manufacturing industry achieved an annual production capacity of 60 GW, solidifying the country’s position as a global leader in solar manufacturing. With sustained policy support and strategic investments, India is on course to expand its solar module production capacity to 100 GW by 2030, further strengthening its role in the global renewable energy landscape… To accelerate the clean energy transition, expanding grid infrastructure through Green Energy Corridors, extending ISTS waivers, streamlining open access regulations, and ensuring clarity in rooftop solar policies will be essential.” Read more: SolarPower Europe
Economy -
“The rise in female workforce participation rate (WPR) in India in 2023-24 has sparked considerable debate, with some attributing it to economic improvement in the labour market and others questioning whether it reflects changes in survey methodology or is a distress-led phenomenon… The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2023-2024 introduces additional clarifications in instructions to field staff, which can influence enumerators’ interpretations and effectively modify how work participation status is recorded… These guidelines may have resulted in the reclassification of individuals from code 93 (considered as ‘Not in Labour Force’ category) in PAS to code 92 in PAS and code 11 (self-employed) in SAS, leading to a rise in self-employed workers in UAS. Based on the change in SAS of women, Mohanan and Kar (2025) analyse the possible impact on the WPR of females due to additional guidelines on determining activity codes 92 and 93.” Read more: Priyanshi Chaudhary and Avanindra Nath Thakur, Ideas for India
“Retail inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), continued its downward trend in April, easing to 3.16 per cent — the lowest level since July 2019 — largely due to a decline in food product prices, the government reported on Tuesday. This represents a further drop from the 3.34 per cent recorded in March… Food inflation for April stood at a low 1.78 per cent, reflecting a substantial 91 basis points drop compared to March. This is the lowest food inflation figure since October 2021. Notably, rural areas experienced a sharper decline in headline inflation, falling to 2.92 per cent in April from 3.25 per cent in March… However, caution remains. Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist at Crisil, said agricultural performance is contingent on the quantum and distribution of rainfall, and that the increasing frequency of heatwaves poses a growing risk to farm productivity and consequently, food inflation, warranting close monitoring.” Read more: Shishir Sinha, The Hindu BusinessLine
“In what will be the largest cross-border investment in an Indian bank, Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) is buying a 20 per cent stake in Yes Bank. Public sector major State Bank of India, and seven other lenders, will sell their combined holdings in the bank for a total of Rs134.8bn ($1.58bn), making SMBC the single largest shareholder. The transaction is awaiting approval from India’s central bank as well as the competition commission… In 2020 SBI, ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank, among others, invested capital to rescue Yes from financial distress, taking the stakes that they are now selling. SMBC’s investment is the first bit of good news that has emerged from Yes Bank in years… SMBC’s move has given the beleaguered bank a new lease of life, but it has to focus on the integrity of its internal operations before chasing growth.” Read more: Veena Venugopal, Financial Times
“The cessation of military hostilities between India and Pakistan and a tariff truce between the United States and China brought relief for the rupee on Tuesday, helping the currency recoup nearly all of its losses from the previous week. The rupee strengthened to a peak of 84.6350 before paring gains to quote 0.5% higher at 84.9175 against the U.S. dollar. Dollar-rupee forward premiums and volatility expectations eased after the two nuclear-armed neighbours announced a truce over the weekend following four days of intense fighting. India's currency markets were closed on Monday for a local holiday… Despite the boost to risk sentiment delivered by the two truces, MUFG Bank pointed out that it'll be key to watch not only where U.S. tariffs on China end up on an absolute basis, but also where the tariffs on other Asian countries stand relative to China.” Read more: Jaspreet Kalra, Reuters
Foreign Policy & Security -
“Former army chief General MM Naravane has said that a war is not a “romantic” or “Bollywood” movie but a very serious and expensive last resort… “Unwise people will force us into wars, but it should not be what you cheer for, and again, people are asking why did we not go for all-out war. As a military man, if ordered, I will go to war, but that will not be my first choice. My first choice will always be diplomacy, how to settle differences through dialogue, and not let it reach the stage of armed conflict.”… Naravane said when the Kargil conflict occurred, the total cost was close to Rs. 1,500 crore out of which Rs. 800 crore was of the Indian Air Force… On the social aspects, Naravane said the scars of the war remain in the minds of families for generations.” Read more: Sandip Dighe, Times of India
“A core group of top US officials — including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State and interim national security adviser Marco Rubio, and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles — had been closely monitoring the escalating conflict between India and Pakistan when on Friday morning, the US received alarming intelligence, Trump administration officials told CNN. While they declined to describe the nature of the information, citing its sensitivity, they said it was critical in persuading the three officials that the US should increase its involvement… Rubio had been calling people in the region beginning Tuesday with a general idea of how to reach a ceasefire, but the administration left the finer details of the agreement for India and Pakistan to work out directly… The Trump administration was not involved in helping draft the agreement, the administration officials said and viewed its role mostly as getting the two sides to talk. But from the US perspective, Vance’s call to Modi was a critical moment… India’s foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, did not mention US involvement when announcing the agreement, and an Indian statement said the deal was worked out “directly” between the two countries.” Read more: Alayna Treene, CNN
“Trump, a self-styled dealmaker, may be tempted to try to permanently resolve the status of Kashmir. But he should resist the urge. Any effort by Washington to strike a final deal could encourage Pakistan to fuel further terrorist attacks against India. It will needlessly strain U.S.-Indian relations. And it will almost certainly not work… To stop Pakistan from elevating the profile of Kashmir, Trump must not play into the country’s hands by offering to mediate the dispute. He can affirm the sanctity of the line of control. But he should then focus on aims that are achievable—such as sustaining the current cease-fire… India is more important to the United States, given its fast-growing economy, military, and technological prowess; its role in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (known as the Quad, a partnership with Australia, Japan, and the United States); and its desire to balance against rising Chinese power. But Washington also has an interest in maintaining good ties with Pakistan, partly to compete with China’s influence in the region.” Read more: Lisa Curtis, Foreign Affairs
“Previous conversations in Kabul with the Taliban establishment were focused on re-starting technical and consular activity that had come to a halt post the takeover of Kabul four years ago. In June 2022, India made a conscious decision to send a technical team to talk with the Taliban based on the ground realities in Afghanistan… The Afghan Taliban today seeks enhanced Indian assistance because it urgently needs health care and education. From a security perspective, past precedence shows that the influx of unwanted elements from Afghanistan and; the smuggling of gold, cigarettes and drugs into India has created instability… Kabul’s latest approach to India will certainly irk Islamabad, with whom ties are currently at an all-time low… Prima facie, India’s policy is based on the principle of securing its interests and keeping an eye on Pakistan. It is a risky gamble, given the fact that Pakistan and Afghan Taliban have always had a close relationship, with varying moments of mutual distrust. However, the current state of distrust between Kabul and Islamabad has provided an excellent opportunity for India.” Read more: Bhashyam Kasturi, Natstrat
People & Politics -
“In 2021, an analysis of excess deaths — the increase in the death tally over expected numbers based on previous years (2015-2019) — shows that the number was nearly six times more than the reported COVID-19 death toll. This was the year when the delta variant of the SARS-COV-2 virus wreaked havoc across the country. Some States had a much higher multiple than the national average. For instance, the Gujarat government had officially reported only 5,812 COVID-19 deaths in 2021, but the excess deaths were 44 times this tally, the government data reveals. Similarly, the excess deaths in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh were a multiple of 19.5 times more than the reported toll… While all over India, over 18.2 lakh deaths, most of them due to COVID-19, were possibly not counted, U.P. has the highest number of such deaths on account of a large population. U.P. could have possibly not counted over 2.6 lakh COVID-19-related deaths in 2021. While the State had 2.8 lakh excess deaths in 2021, U.P.’s official COVID-19 tally for that year was only 14,551 deaths. Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu had undercounted over 2 lakh covid deaths in 2021, data shows.” Read more: Samreen Wani and Vignesh Radhakrishnan, The Hindu
“Six months on, Chief Justice Khanna leaves behind a record that is measured, occasionally inconsistent, but not devoid of conviction. His demeanour on the bench—calm yet sharply inquisitive—offered a welcome break from the theatre that had come to define the court in recent years. More importantly, Khanna did not allow his short tenure to become a shield for complete inaction… As Chief Justice Khanna hands over the baton to Justice Bhushan Ramkrishna Gavai, the prevailing sentiment is one of quiet respect. He has not transformed the Supreme Court. But he has not embarrassed it either… Khanna’s judgeship cannot be easily classified. He is no firebrand dissenter like Justice Chandrachud or Justice B.V. Nagarathna, nor is he perceived to be a pliant judge like Arun Mishra. His preference for consensus, incremental style of advancing the law, and occasional flashes of constitutional clarity stands out.” Read more: Saurav Das, Frontline
“Madhya Pradesh Tribal Affairs Minister Kunwar Vijay Shah has courted controversy after he said at an event that India has taught a lesson to those responsible for the Pahalgam terror attack using “their own sister”. While he did not name any individual, the Congress alleged he was alluding to Colonel Sofiya Qureshi, who had briefed the media when Operation Sindoor was underway… In 2013, Shah had to resign from his post as tribal welfare minister after he allegedly made a sexist remark about then chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s wife. He was eventually reinstated. He is an eight-time MLA from the Harsud constituency. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge reacted to the remarks and demanded that Prime Minister Narendra Modi sack Shah… “The mentality of BJP-RSS has always been anti-women. First, they trolled the wife of the naval officer martyred in Pahalgam on social media, then harassed the daughter of Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and now BJP ministers are making such indecent comments about our braveheart Sofia Qureshi,” said Kharge.” Read more: Anand Mohan J, Indian Express
“A recent survey of waste pickers in Bengaluru revealed that every rupee spent towards enabling their access to government entitlements generated a benefit of INR 9.83 for them. The results are strong evidence that social security initiatives, which provide a safety net for the economically or socially vulnerable, create tangible value for marginalised communities… Research indicates that waste pickers require approximately INR 40,000 per month to support a family of four, factoring in costs for education, housing, and other basic needs. However, Hasiru Dala’s study shows that more than 60 percent of them earn less than INR 10,000. Most have no job security or a link to a formal financial institution… Government social security schemes are essential for bridging this income gap. Key entitlements—such as provisions for ration, health cards and medicines, school scholarships, housing, pensions and transportation—are crucial for the waste picker community.” Read more: Ekta Sawant, Nalini Shekar, and Zibi Jamal, India Development Review
Tech -
“Tata’s chip factory (or “fab”) is perhaps the most eye-catching result of an effort to promote Indian chipmaking that got under way in late 2021, when the central government announced $10bn of incentives for investors… So far five big projects have got the green light. Most of these are facilities for “assembly, testing and packaging” of semiconductors: an end-stage of the manufacturing process that involves separating chips that have been printed elsewhere and wrapping them in a protective shell. That is far from the most lucrative part of the industry, but it is less technical and more labour-intensive than other bits of chip production, which makes it a good place for India to start… About 125,000 Indians already work in semiconductor design, most of them for big international chip companies that do a portion of research and development in cities such as Bangalore. These staff account for about one-fifth of the world’s chip designers—but very few of them toil for home-grown firms.” Read more: The Economist
“Indian telecom giant Airtel is planning to double the capacity of its data centre business in less than three years, as growing domestic internet consumption and increasing artificial intelligence adoption drive unprecedented growth… Leading Indian conglomerates have been placing large bets on a domestic industry that recorded $1.2bn in revenues in 2024 and has been growing at more than 20 per cent a year, as demand grows and international cloud service providers — such as Amazon’s AWS, Microsoft’s Azure and Google Cloud — increase their footprint. India could become a regional data centre hub, with already cheap pricing being driven down further by increased competition, and the government pushing for almost all domestic data to be stored locally, say analysts… As consumers spend more time on streaming apps, ordering online and shifting towards digital transactions, “we are seeing a lot of domestic consumption, so that as well is going to fuel the domestic data centre growth”, said Devi Shankar, executive director at real estate company Anarock.” Read more: Krishn Kaushik and Chris Kay, Financial Times
“The $9-billion Murugappa Group’s outsourced semiconductor assembly and testing (Osat) plant, approved in February last year in partnership with Japan’s Renesas Electronics, will commence supplying chips to paying clients by the first half of next year, according to a senior executive… The Osat plant in Gujarat's Sanand, involving a net investment of around $222 million over five years, is majority owned by CG Semi, a wholly owned subsidiary of Chennai-based Murugappa Group. The factory was among the first to be approved to receive state and central government incentives under the India Semiconductor Mission’s first tranche.” Read more: Shouvik Das, Mint
Bonus -
“As graphic trolling and abuse forced the foreign secretary of India, Vikram Misri, to make his X account private, questions have once again emerged on the role being played by aggressive and abusive right-wing accounts and media in shaping public discourse within India… While there are a few prominent right-wing accounts that lead the doxxing, that are remarkably resilient to any police complaints, and hundreds of phone numbers and accounts that then follow up with abusive messages and calls, which suggest a high level of coordination, it is unclear as to what level of control is exerted over whom they target… Beyond specific accounts specialising in doxxing and targeted abuse, which perhaps could be controlled by regulation, there is a general degradation in the nature of public discourse that has been led both by the right wing media and by prominent accounts online. Certain new discursive norms have developed that make online spaces in India fundamentally unsafe.” Read more: Sarayu Pani, The Wire
Watch/Listen -
Reclaiming India’s democratic republic | Lecture by Yogendra Yadav at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs
The risks of the latest India-Pakistan crisis | Sameer Lalwani in conversation with Ankit Panda | War on the Rocks