India Last Week #46
A round-up of research & reportage on India across climate, energy, foreign policy, politics & more over the last week
Climate, Energy & Environment –
“A unit of Tata Sons Pvt. has signed a £750 million ($990.79 million) loan, to build what could be Britain’s largest battery making facility, according to people familiar with the matter. About 15 banks have signed the two-year bridge loan deal this month for Agratas Energy Storage Solutions Pvt., the people said, who asked not to be identified because the matter is private. The deal is among the three largest foreign currency loans for an Indian company this year. The two-year loan has been priced at a spread over the Sterling Overnight Index Average, or SONIA, and the deal has been signed but disbursement is ongoing, the people said… Agratas, a wholly owned subsidiary of Tata Sons Pvt., develops battery cells with factories in India and the UK. The factory will be the biggest in the UK and by the early 2030s will contribute almost half of the projected capacity required for the country’s automotive sector, the company said in a release last year.” Read more: Saikat Das, Bloomberg
“India is considering liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuelled trucks as the long-haul road freight solution to replace the highly polluting diesel trucks. While there is little doubt that diesel trucks, a primary source of freight transport in India, require a cleaner alternative, the conundrum for policymakers is which technology to adopt – LNG trucks or electric ones… While LNG trucks lower carbon emissions, they do not entirely eliminate them. According to some studies, trucks powered by LNG lower carbon emissions by 28% to 30% compared to diesel trucks. Another study points to negligible benefits when all greenhouse gases are considered when switching to LNG trucks instead of diesel trucks… Studies also point to the possibility of increased ammonia emissions from China VI emissions standards-aligned LNG trucks due to changes in the type of combustion. The emission benefits of LNG trucks over diesel would perhaps need more research. For instance, lifecycle emissions analysis of LNG extraction, production and transportation could indicate possibly higher overall emissions due to the methane emissions from using LNG.” Read more: Purva Jain, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis
“In just the first ten days of April, Maharashtra has reported 34 heatstroke cases—already surpassing the 24 cases logged during the same period last year. With a heatwave gripping several districts, health alerts have been issued across the state, sparking concerns over the implementation of existing safety measures. District-level data reveals Buldhana has recorded six cases-the highest so far. It is followed by Gadchiroli, Nagpur, and Parbhani have each reported four cases… Despite warnings, the state’s 16-point Heat Action Plan—drafted after the deadly 2023 Kharghar rally where 14 people died—remains poorly implemented. Public spaces meant to offer relief continue to operate counterproductively. “It’s ironic that BMC-run gardens in Mumbai still close from 1–3 pm—right during peak heat hours,” said Bhagwan Kesbhat, CEO of the Waatavaran Foundation, a Mumbai-based, not-for-profit organisation that works to address climate change… Maharashtra has also become the first state to introduce a climate-responsive budget. All departments are now required to factor in climate risks—like heatwaves—into their annual plans. Still, glaring gaps persist. In rural areas, the shortage of trained medical personnel hinders the accurate detection and reporting of heatstroke cases.” Read more: Rupsa Chakraborty, Hindustan Times
Economy –
“Anurag’s story of mounting debt is becoming more commonplace among India’s middle-class, a supposedly growing segment of society that bankers and consultants regularly highlight to sell the investment potential of the world’s most populous nation… That aspiration has spurred a surge in retail lending, which grew more than 30 per cent annually in 2023. Some of that credit was used to keep up with the Joneses and flaunt a showy lifestyle across social media. Much was also taken just to finance day-to-day expenses as living costs soared following the coronavirus pandemic. But a day of reckoning is fast approaching. Household debt has grown to about 43 per cent of GDP in June, from just over 35 per cent in March 2020, according to the latest RBI data… Consumption is falling at a time when as much as a tenth of all middle-income, wage earning Indians are caught in a debt trap, according to research by Marcellus Investment Managers. The Mumbai fund manager has flagged that India’s household savings as a percentage of GDP are at their lowest level in 50 years, while incomes have stagnated over the past decade. Meanwhile, food prices have nearly doubled.” Read more: Chris Kay and Krishn Kaushik, Financial Times
“As a policy analyst from China with some first-hand experience in the country’s economic planning and industrial regime, a few thoughts that popped in my head may turn out helpful and relevant in India’s case… In an era in which industrialised countries of the West dominate the global value chain, India’s services sector could certainly benefit from outsourcing. But what if the West no longer favours India’s services exports, in the same fashion it turned against China’s manufactured goods? Remember, Trump’s tariff threat against India may extend to the services sector as part of the bargain… While the hope was to raise the share of manufacturing in the Indian economy to 25 per cent by 2025, it unexpectedly decreased to 14.3 per cent last year. That’s why the Modi government has been harping on increasing services exports. Merchandise exports have plunged and India has been losing to Vietnam and Malaysia in the China Plus One formulation as well. After all, if India didn’t focus on services, its economy would have been in even worse shape today.” Read more: Mao Keji, Indian Express
“Goyal has launched his own mini-war with Indian startups, taking potshots at the latter's obsession with dukaandari instead of competing with China on deep-tech. In what is unusual for Indian businesses, many startups retorted, defending their record and questioning the government's policy and contribution in supporting the country’s fledgling startup ecosystem… Holding a meme/ chart titled 'India vs. China, The Startup Reality Check', the origins of which are not clear, Goyal launched a broadside against Indian startups on April 3. Questioning their fascination with retail ecommerce, competing with shopkeepers in delivering groceries instead of focussing on high-tech products, Goyal said: "Are we looking at dukaandari or are we looking to compete globally with our innovations.... Are we going to make ice-creams or (semiconductor) chips?" … Indian businessmen rarely question the government, ministers and bureaucrats. The unfair criticism, triggered by a meme, probably of foreign origin, egged the young pioneers, who have worked hard to build their startups to respond with sarcasm and plain-speak. An e-commerce startup honcho said all global successful startups, including Amazon, started as consumer internet companies and scaled the technology curve later, building cloud computing networks and other high-tech products.” Read more: Subhash Chandra Garg, The Tribune
Foreign Policy & Security –
“India’s trade deficit with China surged to a record level in the fiscal year ended March 31, almost touching the $100 billion-mark, latest government data showed, even as officials fear that the Indian market may see a deluge of Chinese goods, with the US slapping a 245% tariff on imports from China. India exported goods worth $14.25 billion to China in 2024-25, a 14.4% dip from $16.66 billion the previous financial year (2023-24), according to detailed trade data released by the commerce ministry on Wednesday… At least two officials dealing with trade matters expressed concern that the US’ huge retaliatory tariff on Chinese goods could see US-bound shipments diverting to other markets, including India, either directly or through a third country. The government has set up an import monitoring mechanism to take prompt and timely action against such dumping, they added, requesting anonymity,” Read more: Rajeev Jayaswal, Hindustan Times
“As China continues to surge ahead in military modernization — exemplified by the recent unveilings of the J-36 stealth fighter and the Type 076 amphibious assault ship — India finds itself grappling with a stark reality: It is not merely lagging behind but facing a widening and potentially unbridgeable gap… China’s rapid strides in military modernization continue to dominate the regional balance of power, underscoring its growing superiority in defense technology. The recent maiden flight of the sixth-generation stealth combat aircraft — coupled with other advancements in naval power such as the expansion of its amphibious assault fleet — underscore China’s attempts to bolster its military modernization… In contrast, India’s ambitious defense modernization, spearheaded by its highly touted “Make in India” initiative, continues to fall short, particularly in areas of cutting-edge equipment development and technology consciousness… India’s defense sector needs structural overhauls, not just policy tweaks. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited and the Defense and Research Development Organization should be reformed to function with greater efficiency, accountability, and competitiveness.” Read more: Hely Desai, War on the Rocks
“The 2021 ceasefire was born out of the larger strategic interests of both sides. For India, embroiled at the time in a tense standoff with China in Eastern Ladakh, stabilizing the LoC with Pakistan was essential to avoid simultaneous escalation on two fronts. Concurrently, Pakistan was facing substantial internal challenges, including economic instability, rising militancy, and a fragile security environment… In 2023, some commentary in Pakistani newspapers suggested that following the 2021 ceasefire, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was scheduled to travel to Pakistan in April 2021 as part of efforts to establish friendly relations and reopen trade. This did not happen as the Pakistani leadership feared a popular backlash over what could be seen as a sellout on Kashmir… In August 2023, Ajay Bhatt, the Minister of State in the Ministry of Defence, stated in Parliament that since the 2021 understanding, there had been just three incidents of CFVs and no incidents of shelling along the LoC. Not a single soldier or civilian has been killed in CFVs since January 2022… The 2021 ceasefire understanding has been a rare success in the otherwise volatile India–Pakistan relationship. Yet, its longevity cannot be taken for granted. The ceasefire's sustainability rests on continued political commitment, military restraint on both sides and a genuine effort from Pakistan to curb terrorism and infiltration.” Read more: D. S. Hooda, Council for Strategic and Defense Research
People & Politics –
“Ambedkar wanted to see India as a modern society based on liberty, equality, fraternity. That, to him, was democracy and a way of life. His very progressive values are being eclipsed by the “worship” we see now. Worship is very easy: you just hang up somebody’s picture on the wall, garland it and forget it… Ambedkar primarily fought against Hinduism, the source of the caste system. He was against the Congress politically. He was also against communists ideologically. He explicitly named all Hindutva parties, Hindu Mahasabha, Jan Sangh and also the RSS, that he would not have any relation with. When the Constituent Assembly was being formed, the Congress decided not to help Ambedkar enter it. Vallabhbhai Patel, for instance, had publicly said that not only the doors but even the windows of the Constituent Assembly would be closed for Ambedkar. Babasaheb’s political career had almost come to an end in 1946. It was just a miracle that Ambedkar won his membership from United Bengal with the help of Jogendra Nath Mandal, one of his SCF comrades.” Read more: Amey Tirodkar, Frontline
“In a significant ruling clarifying the powers and duties of state governors, the Supreme Court on Tuesday established clear guidelines for how they should deal with bills passed by state legislatures. By limiting their ability to indefinitely withhold action on bills, the decision addresses long-standing concerns about unelected governors delaying or potentially blocking legislation passed by elected legislatures. This judgment arose from a petition by the Tamil Nadu government in 2023 detailing a protracted standoff with Governor RN Ravi over legislative approvals… In 2023, the Tamil Nadu government brought its long-running dispute with Ravi to the Supreme Court, highlighting significant delays affecting the state’s governance. Its primary complaint focused on the governor’s prolonged failure to sign into law 12 bills passed by the state assembly, some pending since 2020… The court held that once a bill is returned and then passed again by the state assembly, the governor is constitutionally required to grant assent. The words “shall not withhold assent” within Article 200 are a binding command. Reserving such a repassed bill for the president, as Ravi did in this case, is generally illegal.” Read more: Vineet Bhalla, Scroll
“The union government has spent Rs 561.08 crore in litigation between 2014-15 and 2024-25 till December even as 7.18 lakh cases involving various ministries and departments are pending in various courts with the Ministry of Finance topping the list with 1.93 lakh cases. This data was made available to the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Personnel, Public Grievances, Law and Justice earlier this year while the multi-party panel was examining the Demands for Grants (2025-26) of the Ministry of Law and Justice… The Parliamentary committee report showed that litigation expenses have been rising year after year though some years witnessed a decline. In 2014-15, the government spent Rs 26.64 crore for litigation while it rose to Rs 37.43 crore, Rs 48.12 crore and Rs 65.83 crore in the next three fiscals only to see a dip to R 51.85 crore in 2018-19.” Read more: Shemin Joy, Deccan Herald
“After several unsuccessful attempts, the BJP and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) announced their alliance for the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections. But their coming together has not yet generated the enthusiasm that should have accompanied this landmark occasion. Both sides are assailed by self-doubt and resentment against the other. The reasons are not far to seek. A smell of cordite hangs over the alliance. The view is widespread that AIADMK leader Edappadi Palaniswami — or EPS, as he is known — was pressured into the agreement. It gained ground because the Election Commission of India (ECI) began examining a petition to freeze the AIADMK’s precious two-leaves symbol on the very day that Union Home Minister Amit Shah was arriving in Chennai for alliance discussions… On the ground, it seems followers of neither party are yet convinced of the value of this alliance. The main dampener for the local BJP is the perception that K Annamalai, who led the party’s state unit from 2021, and is credited with giving the party a statewide profile, was Shah’s sacrificial offering to EPS.” Read more: Nirupama Subramanian, The Tribune
Tech -
“The National Payments Corporation of India did not have a transaction status check limiter in its technology architecture, which resulted in incessant API call requests by banks bringing down the UPI system on April 12, a couple of sources told Moneycontrol. NPCI runs the country’s most popular digital payments platform, UPI. Application Programming Interface is a technology solution that helps two different institutions communicate. On April 15, Moneycontrol reported that NPCI, in its root cause analysis, found banks making non-stop transaction success checks continuously hitting the system beyond what was permitted, causing the platform to face downtime for around five hours, the longest in more than three years. According to an NPCI rule, the banks could check a transaction's success only thrice, and this instruction was to be set up by the banks and not NPCI, said one of the sources. As per NPCI operating circulars, the "Check Transaction" API call needs to be used only once in the interval of 90 seconds… UPI faced four outages in three weeks. While a couple of those were due to banking system overload, two happened because of technical issues at NPCI. The institution has attributed the March 26 outage to a hardware glitch. There are around 40 crore unique UPI users in the country and around 83 percent of all digital transactions happen through the real-time payment system.” Read more: Anand J, Moneycontrol
“The income-tax (I-T) department has issued showcause notices under Section 68 of the Income-Tax Act to several startups over funds routed through Singapore, seeking explanations for investments received over the past five years, people familiar with the development said… According to sources, the crackdown is being driven by data received under the Automatic Exchange of Information framework and bilateral tax treaties… An email send to the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT), which governs the income-tax department, remained unanswered until the time of going to press. According to experts, a significant challenge arises from the retrospective nature of such inquiries, often targeting transactions that were conducted 4-5 years ago.” Read more: Monika Yadav, Business Standard
“Apple Inc. assembled $22 billion worth of iPhones in India in the 12 months ended March, increasing production by nearly 60% over the previous year in a sign of continued diversification away from China. The Cupertino, California-headquartered company now makes 20%, or one in five, of its prized iPhones in the South Asian country, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified as the information isn’t public… The ramp-up suggests the iPhone maker and its suppliers are accelerating a pivot to India from China, a process it began when harsh Covid lockdowns hurt production at Apple’s largest plant. The bulk of India-made iPhones are assembled at Foxconn Technology Group’s factory in southern India. Tata Group’s electronics manufacturing arm, which bought Wistron Corp. and controls Pegatron Corp.’s operations, is also a key supplier… Apple will increasingly prioritize iPhones from the India supply chain for its US customers, Bloomberg News reported previously.” Read more: Sankalp Phartiyal, Bloomberg