India Last Week #35
A round-up of research & reportage on India across climate, energy, foreign policy, politics & more over the last week
Climate, Energy & Environment -
“There are two stories about India’s air pollution that reveal radically different truths. The first is a story of progress, told through government monitors. In September 2024, the National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) showed signs of victory: 95 out of 131 cities showing improvement, with 21 achieving more than 40% reduction in pollution levels. India, it seemed, was finally winning its war against dirty air. The second is a story of despair, told through comprehensive scientific analysis. Satellites scanning the Indian atmosphere tracked the chemical signatures of pollution through entire columns of air. They found NO2 from vehicle exhaust rising 10% and SO2 from coal burning up 30% — the unmistakable fingerprints of fossil fuel combustion growing stronger year by year… This is where the PM10 focus becomes more than just a technical choice—it’s an institutional escape route. Cities can control dust. They can’t control the system that produces pollution. So they chose to measure what they could manage, rather than manage what they needed to measure. Because tackling the air pollution that kills requires something far more challenging. It means confronting four major sources: vehicles, industries, cooking and heating, and garbage burning. Each demands coordination across multiple levels of government, behavioural changes from millions of citizens, and substantial funding.” Read more: Samarth Bansal and Anushka Mukherjee, The Plank
“ Indian refiners Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemical Ltd (MRPL) and Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL) issued tenders this week seeking crude oil, trade sources said on Tuesday, after harsher U.S. sanctions disrupted Russian supply. The tenders come more than a week after Washington announced sweeping sanctions targeting Russian producers and tankers, disrupting supply from the world's No. 2 producer and tightening ship availability. MRPL issued its first crude import tender in more than a year, seeking offers of 1 million or 2 million barrels on a cost and freight (C&F) or a delivered at port (DAP) basis to be delivered on Feb. 16-28, according to the notice and sources. The notice did not specify which crude grades were sought but the sources said MRPL is open to offers of both sweet and sour crude… Late last week, top Indian refiner Indian Oil Corp purchased 7 million barrels of Middle Eastern and African crude via tenders. Separately, Indian state refiners have asked Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) to offer pricing of its crude on a delivered basis to manage costs, three refining sources said on Monday.” Read more: Nidhi Verma and Florence Tan, Reuters
“In a significant step towards sustainability, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is set to commission its green hydrogen plant in Panipat, Haryana, within two years. Arvinder Singh Sahney, Chairman of IOC, during an exclusive conversation at the World Economic Forum 2025 in Davos, Switzerland stated that the plant, with a production capacity of 10,000 tons per annum, has made substantial progress. “Green hydrogen plant is now alive. We have got very good bids for it. And now the tenders are under evaluation. And within a month or so, we will be able to award the job, and within two years, that green hydrogen, the 10,000 tons per annum plant at Panipat (Haryana) will be commissioned” he said. The plant aims to bolster India’s green energy mission, contributing to a sustainable and carbon-neutral future… With this green hydrogen initiative a robust CGD business, Indian Oil continues to play an important role in India’s transition to a cleaner and greener energy landscape.” Read more: EnergyWorld
Economy -
“A drop in the value of India’s rupee has shaken expectations that the new head of the central bank will quickly cut interest rates to stimulate the country’s flagging economy. The currency has repeatedly hit lows and a 0.7 per cent fall against the dollar on Monday was its biggest one-day dip in nearly two years… The falling rupee is only one of a number of indicators taking the shine off of what remains the world’s fastest-growing major economy. India registered a sharp drop in year-on-year GDP growth to 5.4 per cent in the quarter through to the end of September, the lowest level in nearly two years, amid a slowdown in government spending, waning consumption and weak corporate earnings… India relies on overseas suppliers for almost 90 per cent of its oil consumption, making it particularly vulnerable to a rise in crude prices that followed new US sanctions on Russian producers. Robust recent US economic data has also cast doubt on the need for the Federal Reserve to lower rates, helping strengthen the dollar. Stubbornly persistent inflation, which has eroded the spending power of hundreds of millions of poor and middle-class Indian households, lies at the heart of the RBI’s dilemma.” Read more: Chris Kay and John Reed, Financial Times
“Indeed, ever since the new quarterly Periodic Labour Force Surveys were introduced by the NSSO, women’s work participation rates have been increasing continuously—and went up quite sharply in 2023-24—to the point that they have nearly doubled since 2017-18. In turn, this has been the dominant cause of the overall increase in male and female employment combined that is recorded in the same period…. However, because of the ways in which the NSSO defines and classifies “work”, it is necessary to interpret such data trends much more carefully. In particular, we must unpack them to discover which specific types of work have increased to decide whether this is indeed a sign of labour market dynamism and improved conditions for women’s employment, as has been suggested by official spokespersons… By 2023-24, there was a dramatic decline in unpaid workers (Codes 92 and 93) to half of the 2017-18 level. At the same time, there was a significant increase in self-employment, which amounted to 95% of the increase in recorded “employment”. So the decline in the proportion of unpaid women workers (Codes 92 and 93, who are not included in the labour force by the NSSO) is almost completely explained by the increase in self-employment, including both those serving as unpaid helpers in family enterprises and those working for remuneration on their own account. The share of both regular and casual workers barely increased at all, and, in any case, together they account for less than one-tenth of rural women of 15 years and above… If the country is really to experience positive change in this respect, policymakers would do well to move beyond the fairy tale designed to impress public perception to address the realities of stagnating incomes and uncertain, fragile, and low-paying job opportunities, especially for women in India.” Read more: Jayati Ghosh, The India Forum
“The recent statements by the Union labour minister Mansukh Mandaviya rightly suggest that the labour force participation rate is up and the unemployment rate is down based on data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS). He, however, goes on to conclude that the labour market is thriving in India, reflecting the economic dynamism generated by the growth process… Drawing this inference simply from the broad overall trends is puzzling because this period generally experienced a sustained slowdown starting around 2017, well before the pandemic… A first look at the data suggests that the employment numbers are concealing a picture suggestive of economic distress rather than an improved livelihood for the large proportion of now-employed population… While a simple comparison of earnings from the different sources of livelihood should caution us from celebrating the falling unemployment numbers, concern should arise even from the kind of work our workforce is increasingly engaged in… The entire landscape of the workforce is changing with increasing shares of self-employed workers (from 52% to 58% over the seven-year period) and shrinking shares of the salaried class (from 24% to 23% over the seven-year period). The patterns is also seen in the rise of female workers. Employment generation does not appear to be induced by economic growth and therefore, increased labour demand.” Read more: Maitreesh Ghatak, Mrinalini Jha and Jitendra Singh, Hindustan Times
Foreign Policy & Security -
“India’s government is prepared to work with Donald Trump’s administration to identify and take back all its citizens residing illegally in the US, an early signal from New Delhi that it’s willing to comply with the incoming American president and avoid a trade war. The US has identified some 18,000 undocumented Indian migrants to be sent back home, for which India will verify and start the process of deportation, according to people familiar with the matter. The figure could be much higher than that, though, given that it’s unclear how many undocumented Indian migrants live in the US, the people added, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private. Youth from western India, in particular the states of Punjab and Gujarat, are believed to constitute a majority of the undocumented immigrants in the US, the people said… In return for its cooperation, India hopes that the Trump administration would protect legal immigration channels used by its citizens to enter the US such as student visas and the H-1B program for skilled workers. Indian citizens accounted for almost three-fourths of the 386,000 H-1B visas granted in 2023, according to official data. Any slack in taking back undocumented US migrants could also adversely affect India’s labor and mobility agreements with other countries, the people said. With a jobs shortage back home, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has signed migration agreements with an array of countries in recent years, including Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Israel and others.” Read more: Sudhi Ranjan Sen and Dan Strumpf, Bloomberg
“However, despite the apparent easing of tensions between the two countries, the Ladakh crisis of 2020–24 will cast a long shadow over India’s security and role in the region. The period of acute crisis itself was a valuable learning experience for both sides: China likely gleaned important tactical and strategic insights on India, while India developed a new understanding of the threat posed by China. The October deal does not, therefore, restore the status quo ante — there is no going back… Many of the specific details of the new deal remain uncertain or undecided. It appears, for example, that the buffer zones at earlier disengagement sites such as Galwan and Pangong Tso will remain in place, although it is unclear if patrolling will eventually return to pre-crisis patterns there… With the October 2024 deal appearing to resolve the Ladakh crisis, India and China will both continue to adjust their military posture near the shared border. If New Delhi has learned anything from the crisis, it is that India’s national security cannot depend on Chinese goodwill… In the months and years ahead, the challenges for India — and any other country managing a complex relationship with China — will be one of policy coordination. New Delhi will have to grapple with the tension between deepening bilateral engagement with Beijing for mutual benefit, while simultaneously limiting engagement for national security reasons.” Read more: Arzan Tarapore, War on the Rocks
“In a significant move, the United States on Wednesday removed restrictions on three Indian nuclear entities, over a week after National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan announced that Washington was finalising steps to "remove" hurdles for civil nuclear partnership between Indian and American firms. The three entities are Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), Indira Gandhi Atomic Research Centre (IGCAR) and the Indian Rare Earths (IRE), according to the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS). In an address at IIT-Delhi last week, Mr. Sullivan said the U.S. will remove regulations that have prevented cooperation between Indian nuclear entities and American companies. The removal of the three key Indian entities is being seen as an attempt by the outgoing Biden administration to facilitate the implementation of the landmark India-U.S. civil nuclear pact that was sealed 16 years back… Mr. Sullivan said the Biden administration has determined that it is time to take the next major step in "cementing" this partnership. "So, today I can announce that the United States is now finalising the necessary steps to remove long-standing regulations that have prevented civil nuclear cooperation between India's leading nuclear entities and US companies," the NSA had said.” Read more: The Hindu
“In what is being billed as a major milestone in developing next-generation hypersonic missiles, Defence Research & Development Laboratory (DRDL), a Hyderabad-based laboratory of Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), conducted the ground test of active cooled scramjet combustor for the first time… Hypersonic missiles are a class of advanced weaponry that travel more than 5,400 km per hour. These advanced weapons can bypass existing air defence systems and deliver rapid and high-impact strikes. The key to hypersonic vehicles is scramjets, which are air-breathing engines capable of sustaining combustion at supersonic speeds without using any moving parts… The indigenous development of endothermic scramjet fuel, the first time in India, jointly by DRDL and Industry is central to this breakthrough, the defence ministry said in a release. Another major achievement is the development of highly advanced Thermal Barrier Coating (TBC) which is designed to withstand extreme temperatures encountered during hypersonic flight. “The achievement marks a crucial milestone in the development of next-generation hypersonic missiles,” Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said.” Read more: The Week
People & Politics -
“When COVID-19 unleashed chaos across India, the government of India announced a fund with a name that was meant to elicit trust in the citizens: PM CARES. The Prime Minister’s Citizen Assistance and Relief in Emergency Situations Fund. Collecting over Rs 3,000 crore in its first month alone, the fund was supposed to be a beacon of hope in the middle of a crisis. But nearly five years after it was started, there is barely any clarity in the financial reports of the fund released by the government… Repeatedly, the Government of India led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has refused to allow citizens to access information about the fund under the Right to Information Act. The reason, they claim, is that this is not a government body — but a charitable trust set up and controlled by the Prime Minister, Home Minister, and other “trustees”… The PM CARES fund, created on March 27, 2020, has made the receipt and payment accounts reports for the four financial years since its inception public. These reports, however, are bare-bones statements with details of receipts (voluntary contributions, foreign contributions, interest on these amounts etc.), payments (towards oxygen plants and other COVID-19 related expenses), and the remaining balance. What is missing are detailed financial statements that tell us who donated how much to the fund, to whom payments were released, and on what dates; what’s also missing are the auditors’ observations. Two months after PM CARES was set up, IndiaSpend reported that it had collected at least Rs 9,677.9 crore, based on an analysis of government press releases and media reports on private companies and individuals donating and/or pledging money to the fund… The receipts and payments of the PM CARES Fund for the last financial year 2023-2024 are yet to be made public, even as Right to Information requests for information about the fund and its functioning have been denied multiple times.” Read more: Poonam Agarwal, The News Minute
“Delhi Development Authority (DDA) on Tuesday admitted before the Supreme Court that it had committed contempt by allowing felling of over 600 trees in the Ridge area in south Delhi to broaden a road leading to a hospital and promised to plant 70,000 trees over 185 acres in the city to get the proceedings against it closed. However, the petitioner objected to the plea and said responsibility must be fixed for the wrong, leading the court to say a pragmatic approach had to be taken. Contempt proceedings were initiated against the DDA vice-chairman last year for violating the court’s order by allowing cutting of trees without its approval. Though the agency claimed that around 600 trees were chopped illegally, the Forest Survey of India gave the figure of 1,600 trees. As per the record placed before the Supreme Court on the procedure followed for cutting of trees, all authorities, including the CM and the LG, were found acting in violation of law. The DDA vice-chairman, after being issued contempt notice, had on oath admitted the mistake of illegal felling of 174 trees on non-forest land and 468 trees on forest land.” Read more: Amit Anand Choudhary, Times of India
“Millions of pilgrims hoping to cleanse their sins by ritual baths at India's Kumbh Mela festival rely on key lavatory workers to clear up behind them -- those born on the lowest rung of the Hindu caste system… Organisers expect a staggering 400 million pilgrims will bathe during the six-week-long festival in the confluences of the Ganges and Yamuna rivers, holy waters for Hindus. That creates a waste removal and public health challenge of epic proportions, with 150,000 temporary toilets installed across packed riverbank campsites covering an area greater than 2,000 football pitches. Critical to the festival's running are the 5,000 workers hired just to clean the toilets -- and nearly all of them belong to the lower rungs of an age-old rigid social hierarchy that divides Hindus by function and social standing… But sanitation workers say deep-rooted attitudes of contempt towards them remain the same, and many people refuse to clean up after using the toilets. "People say it's our job to clean the toilets, so why should they bother?" said Geeta Valmiki, who travelled nearly 200 kilometres (125 miles) to work at the festival for a daily wage of just over four dollars. Making the job tougher is the lack of water connections in the latrines.” Read more: Arunabh Saikia, Yahoo News
“Jan 26, 2025 is the 75th birthday of the Indian Constitution. When you consider the fact that the average lifespan of a constitution is 19 years, the Indian Constitution has already survived four times longer than the global average… This achievement stands out all the more when we consider the circumstances under which the Constitution was framed. The Constituent Assembly deliberated for three years — between 1947 to 1950 — to craft the document. During this time, the country was partitioned amidst horrendous violence, followed by a border war. At the same time, work was on to integrate 500+ princely states into the Indian Union. The framers, thus, were faced with the immediate, existential task of ensuring that the new nation held together… As we look back upon the last 75 years, these are undoubtedly causes for celebration. This celebration, however, must not be uncritical. Faced with the problems described above, the framers of the Constitution made a series of structural and design choices in response. In short, they framed a heavily centralising Constitution, where significant power was located within the union executive… One may debate the merits of these choices, and argue that the circumstances at the time left the framers with no meaningful options other than creating a central executive, and vesting it with wide-ranging powers. A Constitution, however, is not framed for an immediate moment, or even for a generation, but for many generations to come; and centralising power, once vested, has a habit of entrenching itself even after the necessity for such power has long gone.” Read more: Gautam Bhatia, Times of India
Tech -
“India’s electronics exports surged by 35.1 per cent to touch a two-year high of $3.58 billion in December 2024 from $2.65 billion in the same month of the previous year, reflecting the increase in foreign demand for high-value Indian goods and rising domestic production capacities, data compiled by the Commerce Ministry showed… Electronics goods have emerged as the fastest-growing segment in India’s export basket as new manufacturing capacities have come up in the country driven by the success of the Centre’s production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme… Within the electronics sector smartphone exports have recorded a 45 per cent increase in exports as leading players such as Apple and Samsung expand production in the country. The PLI scheme and quick clearances by the government are proving to be a major success as global giants look beyond alienated China to set up alternative supply chains.” Read more: Economic Times
“MGNREGA has been subject to many technological interventions purported to improve efficiency and transparency. Many of these interventions were introduced without any consultation or scientific piloting resulting in violation of workers’ rights. We focus on two digital interventions. Firstly, in the financial year 2021–22, wage payments of workers were segregated based on their caste. Notwithstanding delays in wage payments, we find there is a statistically significant difference in the time taken to process payments across caste. This provides an empirical corroboration of how this move created caste tensions at worksites. Just in our sample, the compensation as per law that is payable to workers due to delays by the union government alone is ₹399 million… Secondly, we demonstrate that there is no statistically significant difference either in timely payment of wages or in payment rejections between the Aadhaar-Based Payment System (ABPS) and the standard account-based methods. Our analysis is based on 31.36 million transactions across 10 states from financial year 2021–22 crawled from the programme’s Management Information System.” Read more: Suguna Bheemarasetti, Anuradha De, Rajendran Narayanan, Parul Saboo & Laavanya Tamang, The Indian Journal of Labour Economics
“Ati Motors on Wednesday announced a $20 million raise. The funding arrives as the Indian-based autonomous mobile robots (AMR) startup looks toward global expansion. The firm hopes to tap into increased demand for domestic manufacturing in the U.S., India, and Southeast Asian nations, as countries look to lessen their dependence on China. In 2023, the Indian IT ministry proposed a nationwide policy titled National Strategy for Robotics to position the South Asian nation as a global robotics leader by 2030. The country ranks as the seventh largest robotics market, with a 59% YoY growth in annual industrial robotics installations, with 8,500 units in 2023, per the International Federation of Robotics. However, it still lags significantly behind China, Japan, and the U.S… The 7-year-old startup, which has a manufacturing and R&D facility in Bengaluru, has developed seven distinct robots, two of which are currently in testing and will be available starting this quarter. The robots can move trolleys, bins, and pallets in a factory or warehouse… Ati Motors says it has deployed “hundreds” of its Sherpa robots across 40 manufacturers as its customers, including Airbus, Ceat Tyres, Forvia, Hyundai, Samsung, and TVS Motor. Of its total customer base, 80% are in the automobile sector and the U.S. dominates its revenues. Therefore, the startup plans to expand its North American presence in Detroit.” Read more: Jagmeet Singh, TechCrunch
Bonus -
“Irawati Karve led a life that stood apart from those around her. Born in British-ruled India, and at a time when women didn't have many rights or freedoms, Karve did the unthinkable: she pursued higher studies in a foreign country, became a college professor and India's first female anthropologist… A new book titled Iru: The Remarkable Life of Irawati Karve, written by her granddaughter Urmilla Deshpande and academic Thiago Pinto Barbosa, sheds light on her fascinating life, and the many odds she braved to blaze an inspiring trail for the women, and men, who came after her… At a time when it was unthinkable for a woman to travel too far away from home, Irawati went on field trips to remote villages in India after returning to the country, sometimes with her male colleagues, at other times with her students and even her children, to study the lives of various tribespeople. She joined archaeological expeditions to recover 15,000-year-old bones, bridging the past and present. These gruelling trips took her deep into forests and rugged terrain for weeks or months, with the book describing her sleeping in barns or truck beds and often going days with little food.” Read more: Cherlyann Mollan, BBC