India Last Week #33
A round-up of research & reportage on India across climate, energy, foreign policy, politics & more over the last week
Climate, Energy & Environment -
“The ministry of power has proposed significant reforms in the Fuel and Power Purchase Adjustment Surcharge (FPPAS) mechanism to ensure timely recovery of costs by distribution companies (DISCOMs) and reduce tariff volatility for consumers. The proposed changes include the introduction of a stabilization fund and a Base FPPAS mechanism to address month-to-month fluctuations in power procurement costs. The reforms suggest a Base FPPAS charge, calculated using the weighted average of the last three years’ audited surcharge values. This charge would be collected monthly from consumers along with electricity bills and deposited in a dedicated Stabilization Fund… According to the ministry, power procurement costs, which constitute over 75% of DISCOMs’ total expenses, vary due to factors such as changes in coal and fuel prices… The proposed mechanism aims to stabilize consumer tariffs, especially during periods of high fuel price fluctuations. For DISCOMs, the fund would ensure a predictable flow of revenues, reducing dependency on delayed cost recoveries.” Read more: Saurav Anand, Energyworld
“India has achieved progress in reducing particulate matter (PM) levels, with a nationwide average reduction of 26.84% from 2019 to 2024, but persistent challenges in heavily polluted cities such as Delhi and Faridabad highlight the need for more cohesive and localised strategies to accelerate this progress… Despite nationwide improvements in air quality, the data for 2024 reveals that some cities, like Byrnihat, Assam, and Delhi, continue to face alarmingly high PM2.5 levels, making them hotspots for pollution management. Addressing the challenges in these cities will necessitate targeted efforts, including stricter enforcement of pollution control norms, cleaner technologies, and enhanced public awareness… From 2023 to 2024, 99 cities across India recorded an increase in pollution levels, reflecting ongoing challenges in air quality management. Among these, 40 cities were NCAP-designated, while the remaining 59 cities were nonNCAP cities.” Read more: Respirer Living Sciences
“One of the first decisions taken by the Union cabinet in 2025 entails an extension of the one-time special package on DAP (Diammonium Phosphate) till December, 2025. This is done to ensure its affordable availability to farmers involving an estimated budget of Rs 3,850 crore. Moreover, a total of 6,38,92,286 and 4,91,56,960 farmers have benefitted from fertiliser subsidy schemes in 2023-24 and 2024-25 respectively, as answered by the Union Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilisers and Health & Family Welfare on December 6, 2024 in response to a Lok Sabha question… However, as pointed in the Economic Survey 2023-24, several challenges hinder effective implementation of these programs as Centrally allocated agricultural subsidies get diverted towards non-agricultural purposes owing to non-integration of fertiliser outlets with land ownership data, non-existent ceiling on sale of fertiliser to a person/family as well as absence of a mechanism to sell subsidised fertilisers to only those individuals identified as farmers.” Read more: Priya Priyadarshini, Down to Earth
Economy -
“Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to witness pressure on volumes in the October-December quarter. However, price hikes will help push up revenues, said brokerages. The volumes may be impacted as persistent weak urban demand may play out in the performance of consumer companies in the third quarter (A3) of 2024-25 (FY25)… Brokerages noted that companies have hiked prices in categories like soaps, tea, coffee, and edible oils. Delayed winter is expected to hurt companies that have products with exposure to the season… Nomura noted that it expects rebalancing of channel mix to continue as quick commerce continues its aggressive penetration-led growth.” Read more: Sharleen Dsouza, Business Standard
“India forecast annual growth of 6.4% in the year ending in March, the slowest in four years and below the lower end of government's initial projection, dragged by a weaker manufacturing sector and slower corporate investments. India's had initially projected a growth rate of 6.5%-7%. The forecast by the National Statistics Office (NSO) follows several disappointing economic indicators in the second half of 2024 - including low growth, high inflation, anaemic capital flows and a record trade gap - that cast doubt on the robustness of the country's growth… Private consumption, which accounts for nearly 58% of GDP, was seen expanding by 7.3% year-on-year compared to 4% in the previous fiscal year. But private investment is seen rising by 6.4%, lower than 9% growth in the previous year. Government spending is estimated to rise by 4.1% year-on-year in 2024/25, up from a 2.5% increase in the previous fiscal year… Manufacturing, which accounts for about 17% of GDP, is projected to expand at 5.3% year-on-year in 2024/25, compared with 9.9% a year ago, while construction output was seen growing by 8.6%, down from 9.9% in the previous year, data showed.” Read more: Shivangi Acharya and Nikunj Ohri, Reuters
“Since there is a strong association between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of a country and financial inclusion as measured by account penetration (the percentage of eligible population with an account), claims of rapid progress are worth examining carefully - if they are valid, the experience could offer lessons for others… Account opening is only the input for financial inclusion. What matters for people is whether they use the accounts - usage implies output; and the impact this has on their economic lives - impact implies outcome… The most basic measure of usage is whether the accountholder has used the account at all in the recent past… On this measure, India was by far the lowest ranked middle-income country. In 2021, 35 percent of the respondents’ accounts in India were inactive. On this measure, the median for the middle-income countries was 7 percent… At a maximum, only 9 percent of the respondents in India were regularly using accounts for consumption smoothing. Since 78 percent reported having an account, this is a very low number.” Read more: Suyash Rai, XKDR Forum
“India’s market regulator has unearthed a plot to allegedly generate millions of dollars in illegal gains through the legitimate trades of a large overseas investor. The “Big Client",” which is how the Securities and Exchange Board of India identified the victim of the scheme in its interim order last week, is none other than Capital Group. The Los Angeles-based fund manager with $2.6 trillion worth of equity stakes worldwide confirmed Tuesday that it has indeed been taken for a ride. The alleged organizer is Ketan Parekh, a former stockbroker the regulator has chased out of the market once before… The market structure for equities in India has some well-known shortcomings. Most bulky orders that would get negotiated in a quiet corner in other jurisdictions have to be punched into the main market screen, where other participants are waiting to pounce because the term sheet of the bilateral deal has leaked beforehand.” Read more: Andy Mukherjee, Bloomberg
Foreign Policy & Security -
“While an immediate purchase of state-of-the-art missiles may not be in offing due to the Prabowo government's strong focus on social sector projects in the first year in office and its budget constraints, the president is keen to import the supersonic cruise missile developed by BrahMos Aerospace, an Indo-Russian joint venture, sources said. Jakarta could be the third BrahMos customer from Southeast Asia after the Philippines purchased the missile system from India and Vietnam finalised a purchase deal… This time, Prabowo could also seek India's support to maintain the Sukhoi30 fighter jets of the Indonesian Air Force, ET has learnt. Following the Russia-Ukraine war, Indonesia has faced some difficulties in maintenance of Su30s and may approach India. The Indonesian Air Force has Su27, Su30 MKK/MK2, and Su30 MKI in its fleet.” Read more: Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, Economic Times
“Trump, who effectively launched a trade war with China in his first term, has threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on imports from China. But while describing Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a “good man”, Trump has also threatened tariffs against India. As the date of his inauguration – January 20 – approaches, Trump appears to have mellowed a little on China, a country central to the business interests of the incoming US president’s ally, billionaire Elon Musk, who is poised to also have a role in the administration. All of that is sparking unease in sections of India’s strategic community. Trump “has the tendency to flatter his enemies and unsettle his friends”, said Jayant Prasad, a former Indian diplomat… Trump’s ambivalence towards China troubles New Delhi, said analysts, who warned that either extreme – an extra-harsh anti-China campaign from Washington or a deal with Beijing – would be bad for India.” Read more: Sanjay Kapoor, Al Jazeera
“The tech crowd backed legal immigration and pointed to its role in sustaining American competitiveness, while rejecting the racism that was at least partly driving the opposition… The older MAGA base made it clear that they were opposed to current levels of legal immigration and dug out data to claim that Indian companies in US hired Indian workers and brought them through the H-1B route when they could have employed Americans, thus engaging in labour arbitrage… For one, despite anti-immigrant politics showing its ugly face over the past decade, Indians had largely managed to escape the wrath of the nativist MAGA base - both because the primary ire was directed at illegal immigrants and because Indians were often considered a “model minority”. But racism isn’t selective and those who engage in the politics of othering are on the constant lookout for the next target... Given that the lives and futures of Indian citizens are at stake, New Delhi should closely monitor this debate and vigorously protect its citizens’ interests. But the signal is unmistakable - the political era that enabled the post-2000 surge in Indian immigration to the US is drawing to a close.” Read more: Prashant Jha, Hindustan Times
“Xinhua reported on December 25 that the Chinese Government had approved the largest-ever hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet. This announcement, reportedly made without informing India, a lower riparian state, is a reminder of the complexity of rebuilding relations with the northern neighbour… The proposed project is likely to be at a site in the Big Bend area of the Yarlung Tsangpo, where the river takes a U-turn and enters India just over 20 km downstream. The adverse consequences of the project for us will manifest in many ways. It will disrupt water flows in the Siang, as the river is called after entering India and is the main channel of the Brahmaputra river system… This writer recalls emergency management by a group headed by the Cabinet Secretary when an artificial lake had formed in 2004 on the Parechu river, a tributary of the Sutlej, in Tibet. Given the relatively good relations with China at that time, we could get advance notice and data, augmented by information generated by our geospatial resources and other means… India has hitherto opted for quiet diplomacy. However, we are in new territory now, given the unprecedented scale and implications of the proposed project that will involve diversion and huge storage, unlike the existing run-of-the-river projects in Tibet. The Indian side must seek clarifications on technical parameters of the project and environmental impact studies.” Read more: Ashok Kantha, Tribune
People & Politics -
“A vigorous debate in the recently concluded Winter session of Parliament has brought into the limelight one of the most important political issues of our times. What is the relationship between Babasaheb Ambedkar, the architect of India’s Constitution, and Hindutva?… The BJP’s principal claim was that it had done more than any other major party, targeting the Congress in particular, to restore the justly great status of Ambedkar in the national public realm. However, the speech of Home Minister Amit Shah seamlessly slipped into the claim that the iconisation of Ambedkar had become too much of a political fashion, and if only similar attention was paid to God, one would earn a place in heaven. The former was an attempt to embrace Ambedkar politically, the latter was barely concealed ridicule… To Ambedkar, Hindu unity was exactly the opposite of what his own project sought. He wanted to “annihilate” caste and leave Hinduism altogether. Though Savarkar initially had some sympathy for Ambedkar, the fundamental clash between the two projects became all too obvious.” Read more: Ashutosh Varshney, Indian Express
“The body of an Indian journalist who had reported on alleged corruption in the country has been found in a septic tank in Chhattisgarh state. Mukesh Chandrakar, 32, went missing on New Year's Day and his family registered a complaint with the police. His body was found on Friday in the compound of a road construction contractor in the Bijapur town area after officers tracked his mobile phone. Three people have been arrested in connection with his death, reportedly including two of his relatives. A media watchdog has demanded a thorough investigation… Mr Chandrakar, a freelance journalist, had reported widely on alleged corruption in public construction projects. He also ran a popular YouTube channel, Bastar Junction… It has been reported in Indian media that one of those under arrest over the journalist's death is his cousin. One of the main suspects - compound owner Suresh Chandrakar, also a relative - is on the run. Local journalists have held a protest demanding strict action against the alleged perpetrators.” Read more: Anbarasan Ethirajan, BBC
“Saroj is among at least 2,700 people who have been implicated in over 835 criminal cases under the anti-conversion law in the state (according to official figures till July 31, 2024) since November 2020. The law was brought in to give legal heft to the Sangh parivar’s agenda of criminalising romantic relationships and marriages between Hindu women and Muslim men, and targeting Muslim men and their families… Saroj, who was born into the Pasi sub-caste of Dalits, believes that his caste identity was a major factor behind his ordeal. The Pasis, the second largest Scheduled Caste community in the state, have a long historical legacy and cultural claim in the areas of Awadh adjoining Lucknow… The anti-conversion case was only one part of Saroj’s battle. After he and his family were assaulted by the right-wing activists, he struggled to get an FIR registered against them, running from pillar to post. Eventually, he had to approach a local court seeking the registration of a criminal case and in February 2024, an FIR was lodged against seven persons and 10 unidentified others. Among the accused were Bajrang Dal district convenor Suresh Singh and his alleged associates Pappu Kaushal, Ram Sajeevan, Satish Joshi, Aman Singh, Shiva and Dheeraj Kaushal.” Read more: Omar Rashid, The Wire
“Tamil Nadu Governor RN Ravi walked out of the Assembly on Monday without delivering his customary address, which is read out in the House on the first day of the first session every year. Ravi’s move was to protest the House’s alleged refusal to sing the national anthem before his speech, immediately after Tamil Thaai Vaazhthu – the state anthem of Tamil Nadu – was played… In February 2024, Ravi refused to deliver the customary address in the Assembly, alleging that his request to sing the national anthem at the beginning and end of the address was ignored. He also said that the address contained several passages with which he disagreed on “factual and moral grounds”. In January 2023, Ravi walked out of the House after Stalin disapproved of his digression from the scripted address and moved a resolution to take on record only the transcript distributed to MLAs.” Read more: Scroll
Tech -
“A recent study by Nomura found India’s data centre installed capacity is about 960 megawatts (MW) and could increase to as much as 9.2 gigawatts (GW) in the optimistic scenario – a whopping ninefold expansion. Nomura estimates data centres consume 0.5% of India’s total electricity usage, which could swell to 3% by 2030… India’s emergence as a major global data centre is expected to drive exponential growth in demand for energy and water in an already constrained supply-side ecosystem. The surge in energy demand, often met by fossil fuels, could complicate India’s decarbonisation plans for its economy… India’s coastal regions offer many advantages as a strategic location for new data centres. Proximity to near-shore wind and solar generation and energy storage facilities can significantly reduce transmission infrastructure costs, energy losses and right-of-way land acquisition issues for data centres.” Read more: Labanya Prakash Jena and Prasad Ashok Thakur, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis
“The draft Digital Personal Data Protection (DPDP) Rules are finally with us and the long wait has for the most part been worth it. There is enough detail in the rules to give businesses the clarity they need, but not so much that compliance becomes cumbersome. That said, there are two areas—data breaches and the obligations of Significant Data Fiduciaries — where I believe the government has exceeded its brief. It has in the process greatly increased the burden on Data Fiduciaries… The government had an opportunity to reframe how a data breach could be handled. Not only has it squandered that opportunity, it has placed such a burden on Data Fiduciaries and the Board that its made matters worse… With Rule 12(4) suggesting that Significant Data Fiduciaries may have to localize certain categories of personal data, it feels like the government is sneaking in a provision that we all believed we’d seen the back off. We tend to conflate location with access—assuming that if data is physically situated in the territory of India, it will be easier to access. This is not the case, just as it is wrong to assume that merely because data happens to reside in a foreign jurisdiction, Indian law enforcement authorities will never be able to access to it.” Read more: Rahul Matthan, Ex Machina
“Microsoft will spend $3 billion to expand its Azure cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) capacity in India, CEO Satya Nadella said on Tuesday, doubling down on a country with tech expertise and low costs to help turn such investments profitable. The two-year investment, its biggest ever in the country, will also be used to upskill Indians in AI, a Microsoft spokesperson said, clarifying this outlay was on top of the company’s recently announced plan to invest $80 billion on AI-enabled data centers in fiscal 2025… Microsoft, which has more than 20,000 employees across 10 Indian cities, is aiming to both help the local tech community develop and tap into its talent base, Nadella said at a conference in the southern Indian city of Bengaluru… Microsoft plans to train 10 million people in AI in India by 2030, Nadella said. The company upskilled 2.4 million people last year.” Read more: Aditya Soni and Deborah Mary Sophia, Reuters
Bonus -
“From more hostels and washrooms for female students to their own sports teams — a silent revolution has been taking shape at the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) over the last six years, ever since a supernumerary quota of 20% was set aside for women. The quota, under which extra seats were created instead of reserving them in the existing pool, was implemented in 2018 based on the recommendations of a committee led by then IIT-Mandi Director Timothy Gonsalves, which called it “the required slight push”. While most IITs implemented a 14% quota for women in 2018-19, by 2019-20 it stood at 19% and by 2021-22, most of them had 20% seats for women. Six years on, data obtained by The Indian Express under the Right to Information (RTI) Act from 21 of the 23 IITs reveals a steady increase in the number of women entering these prestigious institutes… According to the data, IITs Delhi and Bombay crossed the 20% threshold as early as 2017 — even before the quota was implemented. Of IIT Delhi’s 2,878 students that year, 607 or 21.09% were women. In the first semester of 2024 at IIT Delhi, that number stood at 840 — a rise of 38.39%. In the case of IIT Bombay, of 2,790 students in 2017, 570 or 20.43% were women.” Read more: Vidheesha Kuntamalla and Pallavi Smart, Indian Express
Loved the wide coverage! Continue with the great work, you have one extra diligent reader to your substack now.