India Last Week #31
A round-up of research & reportage on India across climate, energy, foreign policy, politics & more over the last week
Climate, Energy & Environment -
“On 27 February, 2024, a union government committee approved the clearing of over 450 hectares of lush forests—prime habitat for elephants, sloth bears, leopards, hyenas and other threatened wildlife species—in the hills of Jeypore and Malkangiri in southern Odisha for a new railway line… The loss of such wildlife and its ancient habitat was compounded by a new fiddle with the law, which requires “compensatory afforestation”, itself a much-criticised concept (here, here and here) that requires any forests cleared to be replaced with the equivalent area of man-made forests… The ‘afforested’ land—often a different biome, such as grassland, mountain deserts or scrub forest—remains with the forest department, but does not mitigate the loss of forests they replace, likely causing more harm by irrevocably altering the ecology, damaging resident wildlife and impinging on the rights of local people who depend on these forests… Most of these diversions contravene a basic compensatory-afforestation tenet of the environment ministry: providing “non-forest land for (loss of forest) land,” and defy three Supreme Court orders, including the latest 19 February 2024 interim order in a case that challenged the constitutionality of the FCAA.” Read more: Prakriti Srivastava, Prerna Singh Bindra and Krithika Sampath, Article 14
“The quantity of electricity consumed by public charging stations (PCSs) for electric vehicles (EVs) in the national capital territory (NCT) of Delhi has more than doubled on an annual basis in the first seven months of the current financial year. As per the latest data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), PCSs in Delhi consumed 206.23 million units (MU) during the April-October period in FY25, a growth of more than 101 per cent on an annual basis. In fact, the power consumption by charging stations in Delhi is on way to account for half of the total electricity consumed by PCSs in the country. Delhi raised its share in the total electricity consumption by EV PCSs in the country to 46.93 per cent during April-October of FY25, compared to 44.31 per cent during the same period a year-ago. Maharashtra was the second highest power consuming state via EV PCSs during the first seven months in FY25, with consumption growing by 59 per cent y-o-y to 108.13 MU.” Read more: Rishin Ranjan Kala, Hindu Businessline
“The Union Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) may soon mandate the inclusion of battery storage capacity in upcoming solar and wind power plants, according to a senior government official. The move is aimed at addressing the intermittency of renewable energy supply and ensuring round-the-clock power delivery. Speaking at the 21st Global MSME Business Summit organized by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), MNRE Secretary Prashant Kumar Singh said an initial mandate of 10% battery storage could be introduced, with provisions to scale it up gradually… He added that recent tenders for projects combining solar, wind, and battery storage have shown competitive rates compared to coal-based power plants… The secretary also highlighted the immediate need for storage systems in areas where transmission infrastructure is underutilized for large parts of the day. Earlier, the government approved a INR 3760 crore viability gap funding (VGF) scheme for battery energy storage systems (BESS). Under the scheme, financial support of up to 40% of the capital cost is being provided for projects totaling 4000 megawatt-hours (MWh) by FY31.” Read more: Saurav Anand, Energy World
“Eleven districts in India, including Kendrapara, face a ‘very high’ risk of both floods and droughts, revealed a pan-India climate risk assessment, commissioned by the Department of Science and Technology (DST) under the central government in collaboration with the Swiss Development Council…The study categorises 51 districts as having ‘very high’ flood risk and 118 as ‘high’ flood risk. Similarly, 91 districts fall into the ‘very high’ drought risk category, with another 188 categorised as ‘high’ risk. While 85 per cent of drought-prone districts are concentrated in 13 states, the majority of flood-prone districts lie within seven states… Now, considering the combined flood and drought risks, structural interventions must be carefully prioritised and implemented without compromising the district's ecological sensitivity… Other interventions, such as rehabilitating and lining irrigation canals, constructing cascade reservoirs and strengthening embankments, must be undertaken cautiously.” Read more: Avilash Roul, Down to Earth
Economy -
“Once the backbone of domestic consumption, India’s middle class, which represents 31% of its population, is cutting back sharply on daily and discretionary expenditure… A recent FICCI-Quess Corp report on the marginal increase in wage growth in the corporate sector, despite a four-fold growth in profits over the last four years, has brought the issue of stagnant wages into sharp focus in India. The report, prepared for the government, notes that the compounded annual wage growth between 2019 and 2023 in key sectors including engineering, manufacturing, FMCG, retail, IT and BFSI, has hovered between 0.8% to 5.4%, contributing to slowing of demand among the middle classes… A recent report by the market researcher states the share of socio-economic classes A and B, who are affluent consumers, has jumped to 45.5% and 30.8% each in 2024. While the share of socio-economic classes C, D and E, which are middle class and lower middle-class consumers, has shrunk to 40.1% in 2024.” Read more: Viveat Susan Pinto, Financial Express
“The Public Accounts Committee (PAC), headed by senior Congress leader K.C. Venugopal, in a report tabled during the recently-concluded Winter session of Parliament, revealed that Ministries of Finance, Defence, Railways, and Chemical & Fertilizers spent ₹1,291.14 crore in excess of the 2021-22 Budget sanctioned by Parliament. In the report titled ‘Excesses over voted grants and charged appropriations (2021-22)‘, the PAC took the government to task, saying that “overspending should not continue in the age of e-governance and e-payment systems, where Ministries have access to real-time tools to monitor expenditure”. The Committee found that for the financial year 2021-22, a total of ₹1,291.14 crore was incurred by Ministry of Finance (₹742.56 crore), Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers (₹493.38 crore), Ministry of Railways (₹55.16 crore), and Ministry of Defence (₹3.17 crore)… The panel also pointed out that in all four cases of excess expenditure, the Ministries and departments involved had already obtained substantial Supplementary Grants. Excess expenditures still occurred, with the percentage of overspending ranging from 0.67% to 10.41%.” Read more: The Hindu
“The sudden, less-expected appointment of Sanjay Malhotra as the new Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor comes at a critical time for the governing dynamics of the Indian economy, which is currently grappling with structural challenges of increasing growth, a need to keep inflation in check, and creating good jobs., while allowing non-performing assets and credit flows to essential job creating sectors… The sudden transition in this monetary policy-anchoring institution’s leadership has the market and its investors a little tense. Especially as the new governor’s stance on either of these areas or critical policy issues is not very clear nor publicly known yet… On the growth front, the economy faces challenges from weak global demand and disruptions in supply chains, compounded by high interest rates that have tightened credit availability. Adding to these complexities is the evolving relationship between the RBI and the Ministry of Finance. Over the years, the government’s dependence on the central bank for financing fiscal deficits has increased significantly. This growing reliance raises questions about the RBI’s autonomy, as its monetary policy decisions are often influenced by the fiscal needs of the government.” Read more: Deepanshu Mohan and Aryan Govindakrishnan, The Wire
“In a series of recent pieces, we have been arguing that the just-ended Reserve Bank of India (RBI) regime made a radical change in exchange rate policy, which reduced export competitiveness and rendered monetary policy inappropriate for a slowing economy. And in the process the RBI’s intervention to prop up the rupee has led to a reserve loss of about $200 billion over three episodes, with over $50 billion lost since end-September alone… Now, there is an immutable lesson - almost an iron law - derived from umpteen emerging market crises over the last 50 years that countries which run a dollar peg for long periods become vulnerable to speculative attacks… India now holds about $650 billion in reserves, enough to finance nearly a year of imports. The problem is that global financial markets have bene more firepower, as China discovered in 2015, when it lost over $1 trillion in reserves - yes, trillion with a “t” - defending its dollar peg… To be absolutely clear, India today is not like the UK in 1992 or Thailand in 1997. But it would be unwise to ignore the risks when markets percieve that central banks’ defense of exchange rate pegs is unsustainable.” Read more: Abhishek Anand, Josh Felman and Arvind Subramanian, Business Standard
Foreign Policy & Security -
“Zhang Jiadong, director of the South Asian Studies Centre at Fudan University, said the level of people-to-people and cultural exchanges between China and India lagged “far behind”, considering the strength and international status of the two Asian powers… Zhang’s commentary came as he and other Chinese scholars, including those from the Tibetan Academy of Social Sciences, wrapped up talks with a delegation from the India Foundation – a think tank affiliated with India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party – in China’s Tibet autonomous region. The discussions in regional capital Lhasa, aimed at easing tensions between the two nations, were the second phase of the Dialogue on China-India Relations. The first phase was held at Fudan University in Shanghai last month. The dialogue is an example of “track 2” diplomacy, which brings together non-state actors from both sides for discussions… After the Galwan Valley clash in 2020, the number of newly registered Indian students in China dropped to nearly zero. The figure then rose to 8,580 during the 2021-2022 school year before dropping to 6,500 the next year, he said.” Read more: Maple Leung, South China Morning Post
India to commission 2 frontline warships & a sub in New Year in big boost to blue-water capabilities
“In a major boost to India’s blue-water combat capabilities to counter China’s ever expanding footprint in the Indian Ocean Region and beyond, the Navy is all set to commission two indigenous frontline warships and a diesel-electric submarine next month, even as the new Russian-built frigate INS Tushil also heads home. The biggest of the new warships will be the guided-missile destroyer Surat, with a displacement of 7400-tonne, followed by stealth frigate Nilgiri (6670-tonne) and submarine Vagsheer (1600-tonne), all of which are packed with heavy-duty sensors and weapons for a deadly punch. Surat and Nilgiri were delivered to the Navy by the Mumbai-based Mazagon Docks (MDL) last week… Overall, the Navy now has 60 warships and vessels under construction in Indian shipyards… The Navy, however, will reach a force-level of just about 155-160 warships by 2030, given the slow pace of construction in Indian shipyards as well as the progressive decommissioning of older warships, as earlier reported by TOI. In contrast, China is constructing warships and submarines at an astonishing rate, while it has stepped-up naval forays into the IOR and the hunt for overseas bases. Numerically, it already has the world’s largest Navy, with over 370 ships and submarines, including 140 major surface combatants.” Read more: Rajat Pandit, Times of India
“Examination of more than a quarter-century of India’s high-level diplomatic engagement across six different prime ministers enables us to test a variety of predictions regarding the drivers and orientation of contemporary Indian foreign policy… First, we assess the drivers of VIP travel to determine whether such undertakings are the result of intentional decision-making rather than diplomatic habit. Focusing specifically on bilateral visits, a series of cross-sectional time-series logistic regression models explore the domestic, international, and bureaucratic determinants of overseas visits. With evidence indicating intent rather than bureaucratic routine best explaining such engagements, we then examine the patterns of travel for insights into India’s orientation toward the present US-led international order… The specific travel choices made by Indian VIPs can provide insight into the country’s orientation toward the present international order. Both the Prime Minister and the External Affairs Minister are more likely to visit rising powers than other states, which is behavior consistent with a challenger orientation.” Read more: Sumitha Narayanan Kutty and Walter C Ladwig III, International Studies Quarterly
“Months after announcing that the Free Movement Regime (FMR) along the Myanmar border has been entirely suspended, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has brought in fresh protocol to regulate the movement of people living within 10 kilometres on either side of the largely unfenced international border. A senior government official told The Hindu that the notification ending the FMR, which involves a bilateral agreement with Myanmar, is yet to be notified by the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). Union Home Minister Amit Shah announced on February 8 this year that the FMR was being scrapped to ensure the internal security of the country and to maintain the demographic structure of India’s northeastern States. However, the new guidelines indicate that the regime has not been done away with but stricter regulations such as reducing the range of free movement from the earlier 16 km to the present 10 km have been introduced… The scrapping of the FMR was opposed by the States of Nagaland and Mizoram. The Nagaland government led by the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), an ally of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), had passed a resolution in the State Assembly against scrapping the FMR.” Read more: Vijaita Singh, The Hindu
People & Politics -
Centre changes election conduct rules days after HC tells EC to provide poll documents to petitioner
“The Union government on Friday amended the Conduct of Election Rules to the effect that not all election-related documents can be accessed by the public. The earlier Rule 93(2)(a) of the 1961 Conduct of Election Rules stated that “all other papers relating to the election shall be open to public inspection”… With this change notified by the Union Ministry of Law and Justice, in consultation with the Election Commission, not all poll-related papers can be inspected by the public. Only those papers specified in the Conduct of Election Rules can be inspected by the public… This came days after the Punjab and Haryana High Court, on December 9, directed the Election Commission to provide videography, security camera footage and copies of documents related to votes polled at a polling station during the recent Haryana Assembly elections to advocate Mehmood Pracha… The Congress on Saturday said the amendment to the Conduct of Election Rules was a “vindication” of its repeated assertions regarding the “rapidly eroding integrity” in recent times of the electoral process managed by the Election Commission.” Read more: Arvind Gunasekar, Scroll
“From 70 FIRs over deletion of voters earlier this year in Andhra Pradesh to allegations about erasure of voters in poll-bound Delhi, electoral rolls seem to have replaced EVMs as a primary opposition concern over the last few months… Over 32,000 voters were struck off the rolls in Uttar Pradesh’s Farrukhabad, where the margin of victory was just 2,678 votes. In our small sample survey, the deletion rates were much higher in areas housing Yadav, Muslim, Shakya and Jatav voters as compared to localities with upper caste voters… Fake voters thrive in Meerut. Our two-booth survey revealed that 27 percent of existing voters were bogus in the Lok Sabha constituency, where the BJP’s candidate won by just around 10,000 votes. More than 1 lakh voters were added this year. And findings from our field visit cast a shadow on certain patterns in both deletions and additions… The overall indication from our surveys is that areas with a higher share of voters from religious and caste groups who were less likely to vote for the BJP saw disproportionate deletions. Additionally, the inclusion of new voters needs further and comprehensive scrutiny to identify bogus voters.” Read more: Sumedha Mittal, Newslaundry
“With 13 MPs - three Lok Sabha and 10 Rajya Sabha - AAP's highest-ever strength in Parliament, the party seems upbeat. However, the beginning of 2025 is likely to be challenging as the party faces a do-or-die battle in Delhi assembly elections… In absolute terms, the strength of AAP in Parliament seems encouraging. But the electoral fine print of 2024 is far from that. The recent electoral outings of AAP have been dismal. In the Lok Sabha elections, AAP (in alliance with Congress) could not win a single seat in Delhi - a state held by the party since 2015. Even in Punjab parliamentary elections, the party could not capitalise on its decisive victory in 2022 assembly elections. It improved its Punjab tally from 2 seats in 17th Lok Sabha to a mere 3 this year… The year will begin with the biggest political test for AAP - Delhi Assembly elections. The party has ruled the capital city for 10 years and faces an obvious anti-incumbency. AAP is aware of this disadvantage as it has dropped almost a third of its MLAs.” Read more: Nidhi Sharma, Economic Times
“Motorists and commuters using the Western Express Highway in Mumbai got stuck in traffic jams for nearly four hours on Saturday. Flyers trying to reach the city airport were among those majorly impacted by the traffic jam. Sources in the police department told The Indian Express that supporters of a newly inducted BJP minister and other politicians had arrived at the city airport on Saturday evening unannounced in nearly 500 vehicles to welcome them, thus causing a jam on the roads connecting the airport. “This was not a pre-planned event, and we were not kept in the loop regarding this. The unannounced inflow of politicians’ supporters and their vehicles caused traffic jams near the airport, and later it led to long traffic jams on the northbound stretch of the Western Express Highway from Bandra to Goregaon. Goregaon to Andheri traffic flow was also impacted,” a senior police official said.” Read more: Vijay Kumar Yadav, Indian Express
Tech -
“Thirty Indian companies have answered the space regulator's call to build and operate constellations of Earth observation (EO) satellites in a groundbreaking private-public partnership to reduce the country's reliance on foreign data for defense, infrastructure management and other critical mapping needs. "We have received 9 applications ... Each applicant represents a consortium, involving a total of 30 companies," said Pawan Goenka, chairman of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre, or IN-SPACe. The regulator had sought "expressions of interest" (EoI) in July to build home-grown satellite constellations as part of a broader strategy to monetize the sector and ensure data sovereignty… IN-SPACe's eligibility criteria include applicants raising or investing at least 850 million rupees ($10 million) in space-related activities, having a valuation of 8.5 billion rupees, or a turnover of 2 billion rupees in the past three years. They must also set up spacecraft control centres in India or partner with ground station service providers for operational needs. The government plans to loan up to 3.5 billion to the winner, with private companies expected to cover the remaining costs, according to a source familiar with the matter.” Read more: Nivedita Bhattacharjee, Reuters
“Google’s appointment of Preeti Lobana as the head of its Indian operations last week topped a fast-growing trend of women executives taking charge at technology corporations across the country. A slew of women leaders from Salesforce India chief Arundhati Bhattacharya, who was recently elevated as the head of its Asean region, to Sandhya Devanathan who helms Meta’s India business, are among those reversing the long-held narrative of gender disparity at the highest echelons of the industry. The boom in global capability centres (GCCs) in India has also enabled women to take on leadership roles. About 25% of women working in the technology sector are employed in GCCs, and this figure is projected to increase to 27% by 2027, according to industry data. Despite the presence of women leaders in technology firms, they still represent only about 14.5% of top positions in GCCs, data shows. Recruitment firm TeamLease estimates that the overall percentage of female work participation rate (FWPR) in tech increased by 9.1% between 2022 and 2023. The firm added that it expects a steady growth of between 8% and 9% in the next two years.” Read more: Economic Times
“India’s broadband connections dropped by 0.31% from 944.40 million in September to 941.47 million in October 2024, as per the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India’s (TRAI) telecom subscription data. This is the second consecutive month that India’s broadband connections have declined. Just like the September, the decline in broadband connections this month is coming from a drop in wireless connectivity, with total wireless subscribers going from 900.77 million to 896.81 million. Within the wireless connectivity segment, mobile wireless connections (dongles and phones) fell by 0.42% going from 899.79 million to 896.05 million in October. Fixed wireless connections declined by 22.72% going from 0.99 million to 0.76 million… Total wired connections this quarter increased by 2.37% going from 43.63 million to 44.66 million in October.” Read more: Kamya Pandey, Medianama
Bonus -
“Banerjee grew up in Kolkata, the son of London School of Economics graduates. His mother Nirmala Banerjee was a prominent feminist whose research included work on women’s labour-force participation, and who he says was “very blunt about male Indian feelings”… Our conversation is drifting back towards India. I ask him whether he thinks Modi is doing poverty alleviation right; his ministers boast of having resisted the urge to spend lavishly on stimulus during the pandemic, although the government did extend a free foodgrains giveaway programme to more than 800mn people. “I would say one thing that is striking about Modi’s economic policy, and I’ve said this before, is how much continuity there is with the previous governments since the 1990s: a combination of macroeconomic stability combined with some welfarism.” Read more: John Reed, Financial Times
Watch/Listen -
What is India's potential of Reusing Treated Wastewater | Down To Earth