India Last Week #28
A round-up of research & reportage on India across climate, energy, foreign policy, politics & more over the last week
Climate, Energy & Environment -
“For over 20 years, as Gautam Adani first grew in Gujarat and then spread his business empire across India—from a turnover of Rs 3,300 crore in 2000 to Rs 309,000 crore in 2024 —allegations of preferential treatment by governments in New Delhi and in the states accompanied his expansion… The bribery scandal rips the progressive facade off India’s renewable-energy (RE) sector… SECI floats a tender—spanning solar manufacturing and generation— that few RE firms can bid for. Such a project would consume greater capital expenditure than a standalone solar developer—and the price of its power costs will be higher. As the SEC complaint says, the cost of power was known to Adani and Azure by the time the letter of award was signed. In a fair marketplace, they would have gone back to the drawing board to redo project calculations. What they did, instead, was to allegedly pay-off regional governments and find buyers… Hardwired into the SEC complaint are larger truths about the links between Indian politics and business. Adani Green, industry analysts told SEC investigators, would earn more than a billion dollars or Rs 8,000 crore in profits. Azure Power was more bullish, anticipating profits over $2 billion or Rs 16,000 crore over 20 years. Where would this money come from? Discoms pass these costs to their customers.” Read more: M. Rajshekhar, Article 14
“India’s per-capita emissions are among the lowest in the world. However, according to the World Inequality Database, the per-capita emissions of the richest 10% are 20-times greater than that of the poorest 10% and in absolute terms almost half of the country’s total… India’s size and diversity mean it’s a country of countries, and some of them are more polluting than others vis-à-vis the climate. Importantly, India lacks the carrying capacity to support the developed world’s lifestyle standards for its entire population… In a scenario where consumption rises unchecked and India electrifies all end-use applications, the power demand could increase nine- to tenfold by 2070. Meeting it entirely via renewable energy will require more than 5,500 GW of solar and 1,500 GW of wind, up from the current 70 GW and and 47 GW, respectively. This target is achievable if India’s only priority is to expand renewable energy generation capacity. But if India is to maintain food and nutritional security, increase forest cover, and preserve biodiversity as well, these energy targets will become very challenging. By modelling land-use change dynamics over time, the authors have found going beyond 3,500 GW solar and 900 GW wind will demand considerable land trade-offs.” Read more: Ramya Natarajan and Kaveri Ashok, The Hindu
“The climate negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan, concluded on Sunday morning with a contentious $300 billion climate finance deal for developing countries by 2035, despite objections from several nations… While the COP29 agreement acknowledges the $1.3 trillion target, it shifts the responsibility to collective global efforts to enable it by 2035 rather than the developed countries alone. Developed countries agreed to mobilise only $300 billion annually—and that too by 2035… Chandani Raina, an Indian negotiator, expressed her disappointment during the final plenary session after the agreement was adopted. She remarked, “We wanted to make a statement prior to any decision on the adoption; however, this has been stage managed. We are extremely disappointed with this incident. We absolutely object to this unfair means followed for adoption.” Her statement was met with loud applause from delegates in the plenary hall. Raina also criticised the proposed amount as “abysmally poor,” emphasising its inadequacy in supporting ambitious NDCs and addressing adaptation requirements. “India does not accept the goal proposal in its present form,” she said.” Read more: Kundan Pandey, Mongabay
“Air pollution is a shared problem for the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) countries, India stressed at the 29th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) being held in Baku, Azerbaijan. “Most of our countries fall under the same air-shed, i.e., the Indo-Gangetic Airshed. This is a transboundary issue," said Naresh Pal Gangwar, joint secretary, Union Ministry of Environment and Forest and Climate Change, India… He called for nations, particularly Pakistan and Bangladesh, "to take proactive, collaborative steps to manage and mitigate air pollution across borders", according to a press note shared by International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)… Experts have advocated for a regional rather than a state-level air pollution management mechanism through cross-sector and multi-jurisdictional strategy.” Read more: Preetha Banerjee, Down to Earth
Economy -
“On November 20, two major cases were filed against Adani Green and its executives in the US for alleged business malpractices and misrepresentations to their shareholders and investors… Regardless of the verdict in the case in the US courts, these repeated incidents are bad for India’s economy… Infrastructure investment in any developing country is complicated at the best of times. If the state entity responsible for facilitating this is itself considered a risk, what hope can foreign companies and smaller companies without access to the highest levels of politics and bureaucracy have in navigating such processes?… Since the early 1990s, for at least a few decades, it seemed that India was selectively embracing market characteristics, liberalising licensing processes, deepening financial inclusion, and encouraging the growth of regional entrepreneurs. As many scholars have shown, India’s recent reversal towards conglomerate capitalism and concentration of capital raises serious questions about how serious the government is about making India an equal access investment destination. Do we care about ease of doing business for everyone, or do we want only incumbent businesses to do business easily?” Read more: Rohit Chandra, Scroll
“Indian states stand out for their diversity across metrics and labour force participation is no different. Data from the latest Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) shows that the labour force participation rate (LFPR) in India in 2022-23 was 58.3 percent among those aged between 15 and 59 years. The LFPR includes those who were engaged in economic work or were looking for work but were unemployed. For rural India, the LFPR was 59.9 percent, while in urban India, the LFPR was 54.2 percent… The survey shows that some of India’s smallest states by population recorded the highest LFPR in 2022-23. Sikkim topped the list, with 76.6 percent of its working age population part of the labour force, followed by Himachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh. At the bottom of the pile were states that had a large population or those where agriculture is the dominant economic activity. Bihar had the lowest LFPR among all states, with only 49.7 percent of its population employed or looking for work in 2022-23. Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand had the next lowest rates of labour force participation, respectively.” Read more: Ananta Bhushan, Centre for Economic Data & Analysis, Ashoka University
“Asia’s middle class is not growing as it once did. Between 1991 and 2014, the average annual growth rate in the number of Asian middle-class households was 6%, according to our analysis. In the past decade, it has slowed to 2%. In a few countries, including China, it has shrunk. Exclude India, where the middle class is still growing, and Asia’s middle classes have stagnated… Since 2021 just 12m households have been added to the middle class per year, and the vast majority of growth is coming from a single source: India. Without it, the post-pandemic rate of addition collapses to only 1.7m households a year. eiu forecasts suggest that, outside India, the Asian middle class will soon stop growing, and could even shrink… Even in India, impressive middle-class growth has been lopsided. It has been propelled by the 130m households in India’s upper-middle class, or those making between $5,000 and $25,000. By contrast, real incomes among the 150m households earning between $1,000 and $5,000 have stagnated.” Read more: The Economist
“If there was one theme running through the just concluded Q2 earnings season, it was that urban India is showing signs of distress… .Tata Consumer Products called out “softness" in urban demand, while cigarettes-to-hotels conglomerate ITC mentioned that high frequency indicators such as automobile sales, bank credit & personal loan growth, credit card transaction volumes, GST collections, merchandise exports growth and manufacturing PMI pointed to a deceleration in the pace of economic activity during the quarter… Urban India accounts for around two-thirds of the FMCG sector’s overall sales, and thus, any slowdown in this segment sends alarm bells ringing across corporate headquarters… As for housing, the less said the better. Real estate pricing, especially in tier-I cities, has assumed a stark ‘Après moi, le déluge’ tone. Rates of some apartments in Gurugram and Mumbai would have made Louis XIV blush.” Read more: Abhishek Mukherjee, Mint
Foreign Policy & Security -
“In 1986, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev described the Soviet Union’s relationship with India as “exemplary.” Indeed, from the mid-1950s until the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Moscow often saw its relationship with India as a “model” for Soviet foreign policy toward developing countries… Over the course of the 36 years from the Soviet leadership’s maiden visit to India in 1955 to the disintegration of the Soviet Union as a unified state, Moscow’s association with New Delhi stands out as perhaps the Soviet Union’s only bilateral relationship of consequence with a non-communist country that remained relatively stable and resoundingly positive… Three distinct drivers can help us to understand the making of Soviet foreign policy toward India. The desire to spread communism as a domestic political ideology was the first driver, considering the “central role” of Marxist-Leninist ideology in Soviet politics. The second driver dealt with the Cold War confrontation between the Soviet Union and United States that played out across the world. Finally, developments in the Sino-Soviet relationship and Moscow’s regional vision for Asia were the third driver of Soviet policy.” Read more: Gokul Sahni, Texas National Security Review
“In the US fiscal year 2024 which ended in September, more than 1,000 Indian nationals had been repatriated by charter and commercial flights, according to Royce Bernstein Murray, assistant secretary at the US Department of Homeland Security. “That has been part of a steady increase in removals from the US of Indian nationals over the past few years, which corresponds with a general increase in encounters that we have seen with Indian nationals in the last few years as well,” Ms Murray told a media briefing. (Encounters refer to instances where non-citizens are stopped by US authorities while attempting to cross the country’s borders with Mexico or Canada.)… Since October 2020, US Customs and Border Protection (CPB) officials have detained nearly 170,000 Indian migrants attempting unauthorised crossings at both the northern and southern land borders… More families are trying to cross the border. In 2021, single adults were overwhelmingly detained at both borders. Now, family units make up 16-18% of the detentions at both borders. This has sometimes led to tragic consequences. In January 2022, an Indian family of four - part of a group of 11 people from Gujarat - froze to death just 12m (39ft) from the border in Canada while attempting to enter the US.” Read more: Soutik Biswas, BBC
“Several Indian men who were fraudulently enlisted in the Russian Army and forcibly sent to the war zone on the Russia-Ukraine border are still said to be missing, months after Prime Minister Narendra Modi raised the issue with President Vladimir Putin, according to a communication from the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) with the family members of two missing persons… Mr. Kumar met MEA officials in Delhi, who told him that at least 25 Indians were said to be missing in Russia. “The MEA officials told us that the Russian government wants to help but there was no response from the Army commanders on the ground. I tried approaching the Russian authorities through phone and spoke with them with the help of Google translate. They asked me for Mandeep’s badge number, which I do not have,” Mr. Kumar said. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar informed the Lok Sabha on August 9 that 91 Indians had been recruited for the Russian Army in the past nine months, and eight of them had been killed. He said that 69 Indians await release from the Russian Army, and Mr. Modi, during his visit to Moscow in July, had raised the issue “personally” with Mr. Putin.” Read more: Vijaita Singh, The Hindu
“CHIEF of Army Staff (COAS) Gen Upendra Dwivedi’s five-day visit to Nepal (November 20-24) — during which the honorary rank of General of the Nepal Army was conferred on him — was marked by efforts to improve military cooperation between the two countries. Sadly, unlike the pre-Agnipath times, the occasion attracted only routine attention in that country. A diplomatic void was created when India introduced restrictive terms of engagement under the Agnipath scheme in 2022, different from the traditional long-term service and pension in place since 1947… Not a single Nepali Gorkha has been recruited since the Covid-19 pandemic… Agnipath does not create a level playing field for Nepali Gorkhas. Nepal’s economy is small; its nationals have been barred since the 1970s from joining India’s paramilitary forces, which have reserved jobs for demobilised Indian Agniveers. Nepal fears that demobilised soldiers will be an easy catch for dormant insurgent groups… Some former Indian ambassadors to Nepal have asserted, many of them in writing, that Gorkha ex-servicemen in Nepal constitute a pro-India constituency at a time when China is buying up strategic space with Left-leaning Nepali governments. Gorkha ex-servicemen, at times, have acted as a foil to anti-India sentiments. The recruitment of Nepali Gorkhas is not simply the hiring of foreign soldiers but creating a strategic bond between two sovereign countries and providing a foundation for defence cooperation between their armies, which the two Army Chiefs periodically sanctify.” Read more: Ashok Mehta, Tribune
People & Politics -
“The BJP’s landslide victory in Maharashtra has illustrated its ability to course-correct quickly — coming as it does just over five months after the Lok Sabha elections in which its tally dipped — and pull out all stops to retain power, countering the dissatisfaction any government faces… The entire MVA has ended with a number of seats 11 short than the Sena tally. That Shinde and Ajit Pawar have emerged as the “asli (real)” Sena and NCP has ramifications for Thackeray and 84-year-old Pawar who hinted during the campaign that this would be his last election… Maharashtra has thrown up a template for winning elections that other parties will now find difficult to ignore or undo. Even as such schemes empower women, who have emerged as a powerful vote bank, it has implications for the country’s political economy and fiscal health. Maharashtra is already reeling under a debt burden and having promised to increase the monthly payout from Rs 1,500 to Rs 2,100 if it returns to power, the new government will have to spend Rs 63,000 crore annually to cover the 2.5 crore women it intends to reach out to under the Ladki Bahin scheme… But even before the results were out, worried officials in the Mantralaya in Mumbai who had worked round the clock to operationalise the scheme saw it leading to a slowing down of existing and future projects because of the financial crunch that is bound to come. This is going to be one of the major challenges before the new government.” Read more: Neerja Chowdhury, Indian Express
“The death toll has risen to five as police fired on Muslims protesting the survey of Shahi Jama Masjid in Uttar Pradesh’s Sambhal on Sunday. Tensions erupted after locals resisted the court-ordered survey team, who were accompanied by a Hindutva mob chanting “Jai Shri Ram,” leading to clashes with the police. The killed were identified as Naeem (28), Mohd Bilal Ansari (25), Noman, Ayaan, and Mohd Kaif (17). Family members of the deceased alleged that their kin were killed in police firing. The killings have sparked outrage in the region… The incident took place when the local court-appointed commissioner and six members of his team entered the mosque for the second survey at around 7 am on Sunday. A purported video shows members of the survey team shouting slogans alongside a Hindutva group. The first survey had been conducted on November 19. The survey followed a court order based on a complaint by Hindutva groups alleging that the Mughals demolished a temple to build the historic mosque. Members of a Hindutva group accompanied the survey team, locals told Maktoob.” Read more: Maktoob
“Indian billionaire Gautam Adani has been charged by US prosecutors over an alleged years-long scheme to bribe Indian officials in exchange for favourable terms on solar power contracts that were projected to bring in more than $2bn in profit… US federal prosecutors said more than $250mn in bribes were “offered and promised” between 2020 and 2024 to people in the Indian government as part of the scheme, which was allegedly concealed from the US banks and investors from which they raised billions of dollars…Prosecutors further alleged that the defendants “extensively documented their corrupt efforts” on mobile phones, on PowerPoint presentations and in Excel spreadsheets “that summarised various options for paying and concealing bribe payments”… Adani’s rise in business has coincided with India’s drive to harness private-sector expertise and capital to develop its infrastructure, which has accelerated during Modi’s decade in power.” Read more: Joe Miller, Stefania Palma, John Reed, and Chris Kay, Financial Times
“A month after he tried to demonise Muslim journalists covering the Bahraich violence, Shalabh Mani Tripathi, a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) MLA from Deoria in Uttar Pradesh, has done it again. On Thursday (November 21), Tripathi circulated a list of Muslim journalists accusing them of spreading falsehood during bypolls underway in the state. The voting process for the nine seats in UP was marred by large-scale allegations of police misconduct and discrimination against the Muslim community. The Election Commission (EC), which took cognisance of some of the complaints raised by the Samajwadi Party, suspended five police personnel for violating its guidelines and arbitrarily checking the identity cards of voters. However, Tripathi, a former television journalist who entered politics with the saffron party, was more bothered by the identity of some of the journalists covering the bypolls. In a post on X, Tripathi singled out Muslim journalists, accusing them of spreading lies.” Read more: Omar Rashid, The Wire
“Tuesday will mark 75 years since the Constitution of India was adopted by the Constituent Assembly. This desk brief is about an unprecedented event in the summer of 1948. Judges from across the country gathered in Delhi to discuss issues concerning the judiciary in the work-in-progress Constitution… In the conference memorandum, the judges demanded that the Chief Justice of India not merely be “consulted” for appointments, but that his recommendation be binding on the executive. De writes about it as a watershed moment, for it was the first time that the Indian judiciary was framing a collective identity… Ultimately, the suggestion for the age gap in retirement between SC and HC judges made it to the Constitution. Some others did not. The CJI’s consultation on appointments, for instance, was not made binding. But the demand didn’t disappear… In recent years, despite judges pronouncing that the Collegium’s decisions have to be “followed to the T” by the executive, recommendations and reiterations have been ignored. As my colleague Advay and I reported recently, 15.4 percent of proposals for the elevation of judges to High Court during CJI Chandrachud’s two-year tenure were not cleared.” Read more: Sushovan Patnaik, Supreme Court Observer
Tech -
“Since 2022, the Indian government has oscillated between a hands-off approach to AI regulation and one that is more direct and interventionist, which has led to some confusion. Broadly, India supports a “pro-innovation” approach to AI regulation. It wants to unlock the full potential of AI while taking into account the anticipated risks… The reason for the government’s fragmented approach is that there are multiple, differing views within the establishment. MeitY, which is the nodal ministry for technology regulation in the country, favors a “light touch approach.” An official suggested that the much-criticized AI advisory from March 2024 was the product of another agency’s influence and not the brainchild of MeitY… For a developing country like India, which is committed to reaping the full range of benefits from AI, we suggest self-regulation at least for the next six to twelve months (because binding regulation would entail significant costs, co-regulation is broken, and self-regulation is relatively efficient). However, as AI systems continue to evolve, the government should be empowered to prevent harm with clear legal mandates.” Read more: Amlan Mohanty and Shatakratu Sahu, Carnegie India
“The Competition Commission of India (CCI) has approved Google parent Alphabet’s stake acquisition in ecommerce major Flipkart. “Commission approves transaction involving subscription of shares of Flipkart Private Limited by Shoreline, an Alphabet, Inc. subsidiary,” the watchdog said in a statement. The proposed deal comprises the acquisition of a “minority, non-controlling investment” in Flipkart through subscription of shares… For the uninitiated, the infusion was part of a massive $1 Bn round that Flipkart raised earlier this year. While Walmart committed $600 Mn, Google is said to have reportedly contributed $350 Mn as part of the round. As per reports, the capital was raised at a 5%-10% premium to Flipkart’s last reported valuation of $33 Bn during the previous fundraise… The approval comes at a time when Flipkart has been on an expansion spree. Earlier this year, it forayed into the quick commerce segment with the launch of ‘Flipkart Minutes’ and has plans to rapidly scale up the offering.” Read more: Inc42
“The country has reported 6.32 lakh cases of UPI payment frauds worth INR 485 crore as of September 2024, according to the RBI data. There were 13.42 lakh UPI fraud cases in FY24, in which around INR 1087 crore were involved, a huge spike from INR 573 crore in FY23… The information was shared by Minister of State (MoS) Finance Ministry Pankaj Chaudhary in the Lok Sabha today… The minister said that based on a review of the earlier master directions, circulars and emerging issues, the RBI in July 2024 issued revised master directions on “fraud risk management” in commercial banks and AIFIS… To curb frauds emerging from UPI transactions, the minister said the RBI has implemented the Central Payment Fraud Information Registry (CPFIR), a web-based payment-related fraud reporting tool since March 2020.” Read more: Manoj Sharma, Fortune India
Watch/Listen -
'India Not A Democracy But..': Ex-Bureaucrat EAS Sarma Has His Say On Gautam Adani's US Indictment | Former bureaucrat EAS Sarma opens up on the U.S. indictment of industrialist Gautam Adani, the role of Modi government and whether this controversy is bigger than the Hindenburg fallout? | HW News English
Bonus -
“Kashmir’s rich history includes the legacy of Buddhist pilgrims, Islamic rulers, Sikh dynasts and Central Asian Silk Road traders, who brought their arts, crafts and rituals to this treasured land that remains one of the world’s most militarized regions, marred with decades of conflict and violence. But beyond the troubled state’s borders, few talk of the artisans who work with flour, water and ghee (clarified butter) to give Kashmiris their daily bread… With so much traditional knowledge guarded and passed down through generations, Kashmir’s bread culture could qualify for a UNESCO intangible heritage listing and possibly rival France’s boulangerie tradition. So why does no one talk about this culinary legacy?… Kandurs, the traditional bakers of Kashmir, use clay tandoor ovens to prepare various breads. This baking tradition is similar to those found throughout Central Asia. The term “tandoor” comes from the Persian word “tanur,” meaning oven. Despite its ancient origins, the technique of using the clay oven for bread making has remained largely unchanged, deeply ingrained in Kashmiri culture.” Read more: Smitha Menon, CNN
“In a new social-media savvy world of appearance over substance, image is everything. From rumours that Prime Minister Narendra Modi used a range of consultants to mould his image from right-wing fringe politician to international leader, to Sobhita Dhulipala’s character Tara in the Amazon Prime Video series Made In Heaven, whose learnings at Princess Grooming School catapulted her from middle-class obscurity to the wife of a millionaire, our society is dotted with the successes of personal and professional grooming. A number of schools, institutes and consultants are stepping in to cater to an increasingly wide range of needs and necessities of the aspirational and upwardly-mobile. Though there is no official record of the number of personality development schools across the country, a cursory search reveals around 3,668 results for English classes in New Delhi alone, many of which offer broader personality development… These are all soft-skills that are a prerequisite to making it in the modern world, but for which the formal education system rarely prepares you. If you’ve got them, chances are they came to you via heredity or money or privilege. Or perhaps you picked them up mimicking people around you. For the rest, these ‘grooming schools’ are, above all, equalisers, offering skills needed to thrive in today’s globalised economy. They are the face of aspiration in modern India.” Read more: Neha Mehrotra, The Hindu