India Last Week #26
A round-up of research & reportage on India across climate, energy, foreign policy, politics & more over the last week
Climate, Energy & Environment -
“The bulk of investment in the power sector is expected to come from corporations, both private and State-owned, with capital flowing in as either debt or equity. Assuming that most investments will be corporate-led (including government-owned entities), we assess the necessary mix of equity and debt at a 3:1 debt-to-equity ratio, deemed commercially viable. This implies that at least 25% of the investment must be equity, while 75% can be financed through debt. Based on these assumptions, an annual infusion of Rs. 900 billion (approximately US$11 billion) in equity and Rs. 2,800 billion (around US$44.5 billion) in debt will be required from FY25 to FY30 to achieve the 2030 targets… India’s transition to a HELE power sector presents a monumental challenge, particularly in terms of securing the necessary investment. While substantial capital is required, the current supply of both debt and equity capital falls short of the projected demand. Addressing this gap will require a concerted effort by policymakers to create an enabling environment that attracts and mobilises the necessary financial resources. By implementing a mix of regulatory reforms, incentives, and innovative financing mechanisms, India can enhance its ability to finance the HELE transition, ensuring that the country meets its ambitious climate goals while continuing to foster economic growth.” Read more: Akhilesh Tilotia and Harsh Vardhan, Ideas for India
“Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is set to make its largest investment outside Gujarat, committing Rs 65,000 crore to establish 500 compressed biogas plants in Andhra Pradesh over the next five years… The compressed biogas plants, requiring an investment of Rs 130 crore each, will be developed on wastelands across the state. These projects are expected to generate direct and indirect employment opportunities for 250,000 people, based on estimates by the Andhra Pradesh government… To attract investments in biofuels, the Andhra Pradesh government has introduced several incentives under its newly unveiled integrated clean energy policy. These include a 20 per cent capital subsidy on fixed capital investments in compressed biogas plants for five years, along with complete reimbursement of state goods and services tax (SGST) and electricity duty for the same period.” Read more: Nandini Singh, Business Standard
“The National Biodiversity Plan (NBSAP) seeks to integrate biodiversity conservation and its sustainable use into national decision making. India’s NBSAP was last updated in 2014. The latest update has been at least a year in the making, when the government formed a working group in 2023 to hold consultations with stakeholders and come up with a draft plan. The 200-page plan takes a “whole of government, whole of society” approach, according to Kirti Vardhan Singh, minister of state of the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change… The 23 targets and goals in the latest national plan align with broader targets set by the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, an agreement to halt and reverse biodiversity loss that was adopted by countries in 2022. Putting the plan into action is projected to cost an average of Rs. 81,664 crores (Rs. 816 billion) per year between 2024-2025 and 2029-2030, split across 23 ministries and departments within government.” Read more: Simrin Sirur, Mongabay
“The Obama administration emphasized clean energy and established the Partnership for Clean Energy (PACE) with India in 2009, a flagship initiative of technical assistance and engagement. This was well received by the then incumbent government in India, the center-left United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition led by the Indian National Congress (INC), as well as the center-right successor National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP). The Trump administration paid little attention to climate cooperation with India, and instead implemented policies that focused on energy access, security, and fossil fuel exports… Under SEP, the Trump administration did not announce any significant clean energy financing initiatives throughout his term, and also handicapped and zeroed out contributions to the Green Climate Fund, a multilateral fund for climate investments in developing countries. However, these commitments under the Biden administration have returned with figures totaling over $1 billion in government-to-government climate financing. Despite an ambitious international climate finance request in the budget to the tune of $11 billion, the Biden administration, however, has not had success in corralling the U.S. Congress to allocate close to the entire amount.” Read more: Medha Prasanna, ORF America
Economy -
“For the past 15 years, incomes of ordinary Indians - those between the top 15% and 50% of the population - are stagnating. (The poorest 20% see a rise in incomes due to growing subsidies and handouts.) Over 120 mn people between 18 and 35 are neither in education nor looking for employment… The default mode of production continues to be the informal and unorganised sectors. The average resident of UP and Bihar continues to earn less than the average Bangladeshi or Nepali. This reveals a malaise that, if untreated, will land India in the middle-income trap into which many countries have fallen… Private final consumption expenditure growth has declined to way below pre-pandemic levels. Stuff that has underpinned Indian growth due to a quantum increase in prosperity of the top 15% of the population is not selling any more. From 2- and 4-wheelers to FMCG, to (non-iPhone) smartphones, the consumption of everyone other than the very rich is plateauing. Income-tax payers (who earn at least 350% of India's per-capita income) are complaining about 'crushing' tax burdens. Many prosperous Indians are acknowledging that, for the first time in independent India's history, the economic fortunes of their children is going to be the same, if not worse, than their own.” Read more: Rathin Roy, The Economic Times
“Among women aged 25-60 in rural areas, the labor-market participation rate dropped sharply from 54% in 1980 to 31% in 2017 (National Sample Survey (1980) and Periodic Labor Force Survey (2017)). In urban areas, the decline has been less dramatic, from 26% to 24%… To encourage women to enter the labor market, policymakers must first understand the root causes of India’s low female workforce participation rate. Early research points to a range of supply-side barriers, such as the U-shaped relationship between income and education, the unequal division of domestic labor (particularly childcare and eldercare), and social norms that discourage women from working outside the home… As long as burdensome regulations, inflexible labor laws, infrastructure bottlenecks, and unfavorable industrial and trade policies persist, job creation will continue to stagnate. By fostering a business-friendly economy – one that simplifies firm entry and exit and removes barriers to growth – India could both empower women and unlock its economic potential.” Read more: Kanika Mahajan, Project Syndicate
“If we recognise that economic behaviour — spending, saving, investing, working — is underpinned by our social nature, our vital human desire to enjoy love and connection, the care economy and the consumer economy should hardly be disconnected islands… UNFPA estimates suggest the demand for care is daunting — nearly 360 million children and 147 million elderly people require care in India. Overwhelmingly, it is women who respond to this demand, supplying 5.6 hours of unpaid work daily. Men supply 30 minutes…Finally, no policy fix can truly help without a radical revolution in how we value the work of care as a society. This revolution is not about hollow sloganeering or tweets of appreciation. The great scholar of care, Nel Noddings, saw practical education and experience of caregiving as being central to the cultivation of caring in society…If politicians and policy makers wish to incentivise more child births, if they want a productive and healthy workforce, if they want cleaner air, they will need to care about encouraging and rewarding our intrinsic instincts to perform such unhistoric, hidden acts of care.” Read more: Shrayana Bhattacharya, Indian Express
Foreign Policy & Security -
“If the current Dalai Lama chooses to reincarnate, possibly outside the territory of the PRC, and another reincarnation is selected by the PRC, more than one reincarnation of the 15th Dalai Lama could co-exist. This situation will be monitored with great interest in India, where the Dalai Lama has been residing since 1959. His presence has been a continuing sore point in India’s relations with the PRC. After his passing, a sizeable Tibetan community-in-exile will continue on Indian soil… In India, the issue of the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation is usually viewed from a bilateral perspective—as either giving India leverage vis-à-vis China or imposing a burden upon it in the context of India–China relations. It presumes that India’s posture on the sensitive matter of the reincarnation could be central to the crafting of the PRC’s policy in a post–14th Dalai Lama scenario. This approach attributes a passive or reactive role to the PRC… The paper concludes that the PRC’s policy on the Dalai Lama and the reincarnation question is not primarily driven by India’s actions or policy. The primary drivers are the overriding domestic requirement of politico-social stability in an ethnically distinct borderland region and the external dynamics of the U.S.–China competition. The PRC has tolerated the Dalai Lama’s presence in India so long as it does not impinge on the two critical concerns of social stability and Sino–U.S. competition.” Read more: Vijay Gokhale, Carnegie India
“US President-elect Donald Trump has picked Florida congressman Mike Waltz as his National Security Advisor (NSA), reported The Associated Press on Monday citing sources familiar with the development. Mike Waltz, who is the head of India caucus, advocated for advancing US defence and security cooperation with India… Mike Waltz has been a critic China’s alleged economic practices, such as intellectual property theft, unfair trade practices, and exploitation of US supply chain vulnerabilities. He advocates for policies that reduce US dependence on Chinese manufacturing and secure American technology.” Read more: Hindustan Times
“The Sunday Guardian has reported that India is considering accepting Ikramuddin Kamil as a Taliban representative, with a potential appointment as Second Secretary at Afghanistan's consulate in Mumbai. According to the report, Kamil recently entered India using a standard passport. Published on Sunday, the report highlights that Delhi is taking a notable step towards expanding diplomatic relations with the Taliban by potentially accepting an official representative from the group. The Sunday Guardian noted that the Taliban have proposed Ikramuddin Kamil for the role of Second Secretary at Afghanistan's Mumbai consulate. The report interprets India's possible acceptance of a Taliban diplomat as indicative of Delhi's "pragmatic approach" in engaging with the group, suggesting that formal recognition of the Taliban administration might be a future possibility… Since the Taliban assumed control in Afghanistan, Delhi has been seeking to expand its relations with the group, traditionally aligned with Pakistan. The recent visit of J.P. Singh, head of the Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran division within India’s Ministry of External Affairs, to Kabul reflects growing developments in India’s relations with the Taliban.” Read more: Afghanistan International
“Underlining that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have a “chemistry” evident during their meeting in Kazan last month, senior Chinese officials have said that the two sides are discussing a slew of measures to bring ties back to “normal” — as it was before the face-off started in April-May 2020 along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Beijing expects that the “wish-list” will materialise soon and it includes “direct flights” between the two countries, easing of visa curbs on Chinese nationals including diplomats and scholars, lifting of the ban on mobile apps, letting Chinese journalists come to India and report, allowing more Indian movies in Chinese theatres, among others. This was the message from several meetings The Indian Express had with Chinese officials, scholars and analysts in state-run think-tanks and media organisations. This is the first time Chinese officials met with an Indian media delegation after the disengagement in the border stand-off.” Read more: Shubhajit Roy, Indian Express
“France is considering India’s Pinaka Multi-Barrel Rocket Launch (MBRL) system for its requirements and is soon going to carry out a detailed evaluation of the system, according to a senior French Army officer. “Indians presented to my Chief of Army Staff last February the Pinaka. It is very interesting for us. We are organising evaluation of 3-4 best providers of this system, India being among them,” Brigadier General Stephane Richou, French Army staff general international affairs, told The Hindu in an interview. “We have a special mission that is going to come to India in the coming weeks, to evaluate both the launcher and the ammunition… We are considering the possibility among several other systems that we are considering.” Noting that procurement processes take a lot of time, he said it was in the initial stage… Armenia became the first export customer for the indigenously developed Pinaka with interest expressed by several countries in the system. The Indian Army has four Pinaka regiments in service and six more are on order. The Pinaka Mk1 has a range of 38 km and it can fire a variety of ammunition. Several extended range ammunition are under development. Trials for guided extended range Pinaka rockets are in final stages which would increase the range to over 75 km. Eventually, the plan is to increase the range to 120 km and then to 300 km.” Read more: Dinakar Peri, The Hindu
People & Politics -
“Supreme Court justices demitting office are often subject to a legal scorecard. Assessments go through their rulings and catalogue the good, the bad and the ugly… Justice D Y Chandrachud had a long tenure both as a judge and chief justice. In such a long career of a highly pedigreed judge, there are bound to be some judgments that rack up a positive score… Simply put, if a casting director had chosen a chief justice for the Age of Modi, she would not have found a better candidate. This is an age that is characterised by authoritarianism and communalism. Just as Prime Minister Narendra Modi brilliantly used the democratic form to institutionalise these ends, Justice Chandrachud followed the form of a liberal constitutionalism to achieve the same ends: Consistently legalising majoritarianism… On authoritarianism, it gets even worse. Whatever the lofty judicial pronouncements, we were not assured that habeas corpus would be protected. It did not protect dissenters’ rights, or did so only after the state’s processes had literally killed many of them. The arbitrary conduct of agencies continued unabated… It was also a Court which, in so many cases, from the Maharashtra Assembly case to Article 370, from Delhi government crisis to electoral bonds, used discretion over timing to blunt the force of its own judgment. In effective terms, he left our liberties less secure, our institutions less strong, our faith in the Court weaker.” Read more: Pratap Bhanu Mehta, Indian Express
“As I travelled in Uttar Pradesh, a state where the Bharatiya Janata Party received a setback in the Lok Sabha elections, it was evident that the party is in crisis – with workers deeply unhappy with the Adityanath government. They accused it of sidelining the organisation, and giving outsize powers to the police and bureaucrats. Workers from Bahujan communities complained of caste discrimination in the government as well as the party. What also rankled was the central and state leadership’s policy of opening the doors of the party to outsiders and leaders from rival parties, who swiftly climbed up the organisation while leaving older, more loyal workers behind… Dharmraj Gond, a BJP functionary in Jaitpur, a small highway town 10 km outside Gorakhpur, told me that at least 25% of the BJP cadre today comprised workers who tagged along with turncoat politicians.. The BJP cadre in UP is not happy with Modi and Shah either. They blame the duo for messing up ticket distribution in the 2024 polls. “Candidates chosen in Delhi for eastern UP seats were not popular among the party workers here,” a district-level functionary told me at the BJP headquarters in Gorakhpur, on the condition of anonymity.” Read more: Ayush Tiwari, Scroll
“What happens to a judge’s pending matters when they are transferred? These matters have to be heard from scratch. In short, Justice Siddharth Mridul reserved judgement on bail applications of incarcerated individuals and sat on them for seven months, following which – upon his transfer – they were sent to a different bench, for the process to begin all over again. Was the Collegium unaware of this fact when recommending Justice Siddharth Mridul’s name for transfer? If yes, then that is a case of serious negligence – although this is hard to believe, given that in CJI Chandrachud’s time, the Collegium has begun publishing details about judicial candidates such as their annual incomes!… Thirdly, there is the notorious “Maharashtra political crisis case”: another situation that, in essence, was the creation of the Supreme Court, and was then exacerbated through delay. As we have discussed previously on this blog, the origins of the crisis lay in two interim orders that a vacation bench of the Court passed in June 2022, following which the-then Chief Minister resigned, and a new government was installed. Almost one year later, a CJI Chandrachud-led Constitution Bench found that most of the actions of the constitutional functionaries involved had been illegal, but that it could not now “turn the clock back” and reinstate the Chief Minister, as he had resigned of his own volition.” Read more: Gautam Bhatia, Constitutional Law and Philosophy
“For decades, badli work has kept Valmiki sanitation workers across the country stuck in low-paid, insecure jobs. But now, they face a double whammy in Rajasthan. In 2018, the state government introduced a reservation-based system for sanitation jobs, setting quotas for the general category, OBC, SC/ST, and others. Valmikis, who have been doing this work for generations, were overlooked. And now, members of socially dominant castes are taking the government jobs of sweepers but not doing the actual work. “The general category is snatching our jobs. For us, this work is a majboori (compulsion)—we have to feed our kids and have no option to work anywhere else. They want our jobs but they don’t want to do our jobs,” Pushpa said… This modern twist on old caste prejudice keeps the most marginalised at the bottom. The reservation policy, meant to uplift, is defeating affirmative action and being exploited… Government sanitation jobs have sharply declined between 2004 and 2021, with most such posts now outsourced to contractors, according to an analysis in the Economic and Political Weekly. Sweeper positions in the Union government dropped from 1.26 lakh in 2003 to only 44,000 in 2021. During the same period, the proportion of Dalits in these posts fell from over 58 per cent to just above 32 per cent.” Read more: Shubhangi Misra, ThePrint
“A semiconductor company from the US was keen on investing a large amount of money in Tamil Nadu capital Chennai, back in 2022. The company’s officials were in New Delhi to meet with the Commerce Minister to discuss their intentions — and when they stepped out of that meeting, there was a surprise waiting for them. A helicopter was all set to whisk them away to Gujarat, before they could finalise their investment in Chennai… Political leaders, particularly from opposition-ruled states, have raised concerns about this repeatedly. Ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin alleged that a Rs 6,000 crore investment intended for his state was coerced into moving to Gujarat… Ahead of the Assembly elections in Maharashtra, leaders from the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) have intensified their accusations against the BJP-led Union government, claiming it has deliberately diverted major projects — such as the recently inaugurated Tata-Airbus facility in Vadodara — away from Maharashtra. Is there truth to these allegations?… We identified four strategies frequently employed: substantial capital subsidies from the Union government; commitments to reduce import duties; assurances of government orders for manufacturing; and aggressive promotion of Dholera and GIFT City as investment destinations by Union government representatives.” Read more: Pooja Prasanna, The News Minute
Tech -
“Starlink's India licence application is set to move forward after the Elon Musk-led satellite broadband company agreed to meet the government's data localisation and security requirements, a major point of contention, sources have told Moneycontrol… In recent meetings with the department of telecommunication (DoT), Starlink “in principle” committed to complying with these guidelines, a critical step towards securing a satellite broadband service licence or GMPCS licence, they said. Starlink, however, is yet to submit its agreement on meeting the conditions… According to security guidelines, a satellite communications company operating in India must store all data within the country. This requirement is a prerequisite for the grant of licence by DoT.” Read more: Danish Khan, Moneycontrol
“Super Chat is a feature on YouTube that allows viewers to pay to have their messages highlighted during a live stream… ‘Love jihad’ is a bogey peddled by Hindutva organisations who claim Muslims are engaged in a conversion plan and wish to convert Hindu women through marriage. Bharti’s video is about a murder from Karnataka that he repeatedly refers to as having arisen from ‘love jihad’. However, the state police, the chief minister Siddaramaiah and later the state’ crime investigation department have all denied a communal angle to the killing. Bharti’s live video, which was watched 107,000 times, goes against all of YouTube’s guidelines regarding sensitive, false, violent, and dangerous content. The Super Chat by Kumar Saurabh is also a violation of the violent and dangerous content policy of YouTube… An operation similar to Bharti’s is the infamous Sudarshan TV channel, which spreads hatred against Muslims in almost all its videos. YouTube has allowed the channel to exist, and allowed it to make money and also profits from its content.” Read more: Vipul Kumar, The Wire
“In the midst of the continuous evolution of the concept of “gig workers”, there was a groundbreaking movement in India recently — a nationwide digital strike this Deepavali that was organised by women gig workers. This was a call made by the Gig and Platform Services Workers Union (GIPSWU), India’s first union that is dedicated primarily to women gig workers. The strike sought gig worker and service user solidarity across the country and the world on the issue of exploitative and abusive labour practices… For the writers of this article, this moment is pivotal — women gig workers chose the auspicious day of Deepavali to initiate a digital strike, calling it a “Black Diwali”. The response was overwhelming, with media coverage, and support from gig workers and citizen’s forums. However, women workers are aware that this is a long battle as their demands are missing from mainstream labour discourse. They advocate having secure and dignified employment and stricter regulations on platform companies. Governments and larger gig worker organisations seem to focus only on minimal social security measures which are often just a little more than repackaged charity schemes than actual constitutional entitlements. It is essential to remember that workers have fought for over a century for appropriate working hours, safe conditions, living wages, and secure employment norms.” Read more: Seema Singh, Nisha Panwar, Selvi K. and Chandan Kumar, The Hindu
Bonus -
“Beijing and New Delhi pursued quite separate paths to globalization. One set its sights on becoming the world’s factory, starting with toys and electronics, and moving on to electric cars and semiconductors. The other emphasized services like computer software… This is the conventional narrative. But what if there was a more fundamental force operating beneath the surface, a sharp departure in the long history of how the two nations embraced modern education? That’s the thesis of The Making of China and India in 21st Century, a new paper by Nitin Kumar Bharti and Li Yang. The scholars at the Paris School of Economics’ World Inequality Lab have pored over official reports and yearbooks going back to 1900 to make a database of who studied what in the two countries, for how long, and what was taught to them. The different courses charted by China and India for the last 100 years may have led to striking outcomes for human capital and productivity… In the 1950s, the newly formed People’s Republic kept up a steady pace of expansion, not even allowing the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976) to come in the way of secondary schooling. Where the chaotic decade extracted a heavy price was in undergraduate education. In the early 1980s, India’s college enrollment ratio was five times higher than China’s. By 2020, however, the story had changed: China was sending a far bigger share of its university-age cohort to tertiary institutions than India.” Read more: Andy Mukherjee, Bloomberg
“To begin with, for average Indians, history is what they have read in school textbooks. If you look beyond the upper middle-class anglophone Indians sipping coffee at Blue Tokai while perusing a chapter on the Hindu polities of early medieval Southeast Asia, you will find people generally familiar with only school history textbooks… We also have excellent writers in present-day India who write a certain kind of history that is often called popular history. They are supported by a network of trade publishers, literary festivals, and mostly elite upper-caste mentors. Their books synthesise the research of academic historians in a tight narrative that is enjoyable to a reader who wants to know the way things were… The truth is, you can’t train minds to think historically and combat ‘WhatsApp history’ by writing new-age popular history books. For that work, even today you need a history classroom and an academic historian!” Read more: Samyak Ghosh, Times of India
Listen -
An Unequal Citizen? | Editor and journalist Prem Panicker discusses Rahul Bhatia’s latest book The Identity Project for BIC Talks