India Last Week #23
India Last Week #23
A round-up of research & reportage on India across climate, energy, foreign policy, politics & more over the last week
Climate, Energy & Environment -
“Power Minister Manohar Lal said on Monday that to meet its peak power demand of 708 gigawatts (GW) by 2047, India will need to increase its installed power capacity by four times… The challenge of integrating variable renewable energy sources into the grid enhances the need for advanced storage solutions. The government is exploring innovative technologies in pump storage projects (PSP) and battery energy storage systems (BESS) to ensure 24/7 power availability, he added. On capacity addition, Lal said that a big change is coming in terms of the ratio between power capacity and demand. “Till now the ratio was that capacity was double of the power demand. But as we install more RE, this ratio will change because RE sources do not have continuity (variability) particularly for solar. So, we will have to have more RE capacity. By 2047, our demand will be around 708 GW, but our capacity will have to be increased four times. So, now capacity is double, but it has to be tripled. This is the challenge,” he added.” Read more: Hindu BusinessLine
“For several years, the country has fallen well short of the rosy visions proclaimed by its leaders… Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised to connect 500 gigawatts of clean energy by 2030, equivalent to all the generators in France, Germany and Italy put together. The picture on the ground has, until recently, been very different. A previous aspiration to hit 175 GW by 2022 came in 40% below target, and had to be fudged to avoid embarrassment. Ill-advised tariffs on solar panels, combined with contractual and political support for fossil fuels and constant changes to the rules of renewable power auctions, made matters worse. Amid this policy chaos, wind and solar installations fell 19% last year, to 13 GW. That’s less than a third the level that would be needed for the country to be on track for Modi’s 2030 plan. Coal, the dirtiest fuel and the most readily available alternative to renewables in India, took up the slack: Usage by power plants jumped by 8.8% in the latest fiscal year through March. Plenty of analysts (including me) despaired about the prospects for a reversal. The logjam, however, appears to be breaking. Solar panels and wind turbines have been springing up in 2024 like seedlings after the breaking of a drought. In the eight months through August, 18.8 GW of new renewable generators were connected, more than in the whole of 2023. Over the full year, that figure will increase to around 34 GW, the International Energy Agency forecast last week, before nearly doubling to 62 GW in 2030.” Read more: David Fickling, Bloomberg
“In the last two decades, energy and climate have been a foundation of the growing US-India relationship, on par with defense and security. Traditionally, cooperation has centered on meeting India’s growing energy needs through technical and development assistance and commercial ties in the energy sector. However, both countries have recently focused on sharper strategic terms, such as clean energy manufacturing and emerging technologies, in addition to India’s traditional development needs. The US election will impact cooperation in two areas: clean industrial policy and fossil fuels. As seen in multiple US administrations, energy relations with India will be “all-of-the above,” but new ambition and attention at the highest political levels will depend on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump is in the White House. Under a Harris administration, both countries will likely continue to grow cooperation in clean energy manufacturing and supply chain diversification. China’s dominance in clean energy manufacturing is a geopolitical and geo-economic concern for the United States and India… Under a Trump administration, the bilateral relationship will likely ignore climate change and focus on fossil fuels. Fossil fuel trade between the United States and India reached an annual $15 billion in 2023, rising on average 13% annually between 2013 and 2023, including large increases during the Trump administration (2017–2021).” Read more: Shayak Sengupta, Centre on Global Energy Policy
“Our analysis draws on newly available, spatially granular data on relative wealth - the Relative Weath Index (RWI) (Chi et al. 2022) - and variation in extreme heat and flood exposure across South Asia… We find that places with lower wealth are more exposed to heat, in both urban and rural areas of South Asia… The result that households with lower relative wealth index in urban areas are more exposed to flooding is consistent with earlier findings on the urban poor’s exposure to flooding globally and in specific countries like Vietnam (World Bank 2022). It may reflect the residential sorting of richer households into less flood-prone locations (Kim 2012), as well as the direct impacts of asset damage from flooding… [T]he poor are more exposed to these risks throughout South Asia. This is especially true of exposure to heat: the poorest places in both urban and rural environments in South Asia have higher exposure to heat. Rural locations are also systematically more exposed to heat than urban ones.” Read more: Patrick Behrer, Jonah Rexer, Siddharth Sharma, and Margaret Triyana, World Bank
“Nearly 79% of youth across eight low- and middle-income countries (India, Bangladesh, Kazakhstan, Angola, Tanzania, Colombia, Senegal, and China) believe that their country is in a climate emergency, a recent World Bank survey shows (Sabarwal et al. 2024). This includes about 85% of the young people (17-25-year-olds) interviewed in India. Close to 83% of these Indian youth report feeling terrified of what the future holds because of climate change… New data and analysis in the World Bank Report, “Choosing our Future: Education for Climate Action”, highlights this disconnect, showcasing the role education can play to bridge the gap between climate anxiety and climate action… According to the Report, education is the single strongest predictor of climate change awareness globally, with each additional year boosting climate awareness by 8.6%. But the benefits of education extend beyond mere awareness; they also drive action.” Read more: Surayya Masood and Shwetlena Sabarwal, Ideas for India
Economy -
“With 25 of India’s 28 states and eight Union Territories having finalised draft rules under the new labour code laws, the long-anticipated implementation of the four labour codes passed by Parliament in 2019-2020 appears to be finally approaching, according to a report by The Financial Express… To streamline business operations and encourage trade and investment, 44 labour-related laws were consolidated into four comprehensive codes. These reforms aim to simplify compliance requirements while also decriminalising several minor offenses. The new codes place a particular focus on skill development and enhancing mechanisms for dispute resolution. Although the government has not yet set a date for notifying the labour codes, it is expected to happen by next year. In addition to West Bengal, Meghalaya and Nagaland have yet to draft their rules… The new codes ensure all workers have a statutory right to minimum wages and timely payment, supporting inclusive development and sustainable growth. Additionally, a uniform definition of ‘wages’ across all four codes has been introduced to prevent multiple interpretations and reduce litigation.” Read more: Abhijeet Kumar, Business Standard
“The Indian rupee closed at yet another record low of 84.0775 against the US dollar on Tuesday, pressured by outflows caused by Hyundai routing back funds to its parent company in South Korea after its latest IPO, dealers said. Foreign portfolio investment outflows from Indian equities and debt also put pressure on the rupee. However, likely central bank intervention in the form of dollar sales reined in losses for the rupee, traders said. The rupee closed marginally weaker at 84.0775, one paise lower than the previous close. This was its weakest closing level on record. During the day, the local currency touched its all-time intraday low of 84.0825/$1, LSEG data showed.” Read more: Rozebud Gonsalves, Economic Times
“Indian exports recorded good growth of 4.86 per cent in the first half of 2024-2025, as per quick estimates released on October 16, with total exports (merchandise and services) rising from $375 billion in April-September 2023-2024 to $393.2 billion during the same period in 2024-25… Our inability to step up exports to China continues to stymie India’s overall export growth. On the contrary, our import dependence on China has been growing unstoppably. India imported $56.29 billion worth of merchandise from China in the first half of 2024-2025, making 16 per cent of our total imports of $350.66 billion. Worryingly, imports from China recorded a growth of 11.52 per cent, much higher than overall import growth of 6.16 per cent… The government runs hundreds of schemes and spends billions of dollars promoting merchandise exports. Data tells you that it is unfortunately making no real difference. Services exports, on the other hand, have been growing handsomely despite no promotional and financial support from the government. Let the government shift 25 per cent of the resources it spends on merchandise export promotion and invest it in building infrastructure for promoting services export and in providing services tax support.” Read more: Subhash Chandra Garg, Deccan Herald
“Goldman Sachs tactically lowered Indian equities to "neutral" from "overweight" on Tuesday, as the country's slowing economic growth weighs on corporate earnings, amid record foreign outflows from domestic markets. The brokerage also cut its 12-month target for the blue-chip Nifty 50 index to 27,000 from 27,500, saying that markets could 'time correct' over the next three to six months. The fresh target, however, still represents a more than 10% upside from Tuesday's close of 24,472.10… In the midst of lacklustre September-quarter corporate earnings, foreign fund outflows from domestic equities have reached a record monthly high so far in October. Investors have shifted their focus away from richly-valued local stocks to China after Beijing unveiled stimulus measures to reinvigorate its sputtering economy. The Nifty 50 index has lost 7% since the record high it hit on Sept. 27. Goldman had upgraded Indian equities to "outperform" last year, citing strong economic growth prospects, steady domestic mutual fund inflows, and a potential supply chain shift from China.” Read more: Reuters
Foreign Policy & Security -
“At a press briefing on the BRICS summit, foreign secretary Vikram Misri announced that India and China had arrived at an agreement on patrolling patterns along LAC in Eastern Ladakh… With the low levels of trust amongst militaries and govts of India and China, this will be a slow, arduous and painstaking series of steps. It may even take weeks to implement. If this procedure leads to a restoration of the status quo ante in Eastern Ladakh as it existed before PLA undertook its shenanigans of summer 2020, then the result will be good for India. Anything short of this will raise as many questions as were being asked before the patrolling agreement was reached. GoI will be far-sighted if it takes Parliament as well as the general public into confidence… There cannot be a free licence for investment by Chinese companies in India. It must continue to be looked at from a national security perspective too.” Read more: Gautam Bambawale, Times of India
“The alleged plot to kill Khalistan propagandist and lawyer Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, for which prosecutors in the United States have indicted Delhi businessman Nikhil ‘Nick’ Gupta and former Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) officer Vikash Yadav, had all the comic elements of an old-fashioned Bollywood cop movie. For India’s external intelligence service, this case is arguably the biggest debacle in its history. It raises hard questions about whether R&AW is truly prepared to stage operations under the gaze of hostile agencies overseas. Even setting aside diplomatic embarrassment, the allegations suggest breathtaking lapses in communication security, amateurish handling of sources, and poor tradecraft… Few senior officers in R&AW embraced covert action with enthusiasm, though. Current deputy NSA and former R&AW chief Rajinder Khanna, who led the intelligence agency from 2014 to 2016, was sceptical of plans to set up a new covert station in Iran to target Balochistan. Khanna argued that the individuals involved did not have the right training, sources familiar with the operation told ThePrint… A botched attempt to kidnap fugitive diamond merchant Mehul Choksi ended in embarrassment for the Government of India, with local courts ruling that he had been subjected to torture… The lack of a legal framework protects political leadership from the consequences of covert actions that go wrong, experts like Shreyas Shende and Rudra Chaudhuri argue, reducing the incentives for reform and capacity development.” Read more: Praveen Swami, The Print
“Defence Minister Rajnath Singh called upon the private defence firms on Friday to move forward from “participation” in defence production to “taking the lead.” He assured private companies of the government’s full support in making India an innovation and technology hub and one of the strongest countries in the world… Highlighting the DRDO’s efforts to promote a scientific temperament, Rajnath pointed out that the defence ministry’s Technology Development Fund (TDF) scheme is providing up to 90 per cent of a project’s cost as grant support to eligible industries… Several cutting-edge indigenous technologies developed under the TDF scheme were handed over to the users, including DRDO and the armed forces. These included: autonomous drones as first responders for search and report missions, developed by NewSpace Research and Technology for Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (CAIR), DRDO.” Read more: Ajai Shukla, Broadsword
“Vikash Yadav, the former government official named by the US Department of Justice as the mastermind behind the plot to kill pro-Khalistan activist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, was arrested by Delhi Police within three weeks of being alluded to in the first US indictment in November 2023, the Delhi police is quoted by Indian Express as claiming… While the November 29, 2023 indictment had not named Yadav – referring to him instead as ‘CC1’ – the second and superseding indictment released on October 17, 2024, revealed his identity as a officer who was employed by the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) of the Cabinet Secretariat at the time… A Washington Post report has it that Canadian officials have told the Indian government that “conversations and texts among Indian diplomats” who were ordered out of Canada on October 14, “include references” to Union home minister Amit Shah and a senior official in the Research and Analysis Wing in India “who have authorised… intelligence-gathering missions and attacks on Sikh separatists,” in Canada… Lawyers familiar with the functioning of the criminal law enforcement system in India have expressed scepticism about the case on which Yadav has been arrested.” Read more: The Wire
People & Politics -
“Maternal mortality data in India comes from the Sample Registration System (SRS), a large-scale continuous survey conducted by the Registrar General of India, designed to track births and deaths at the local level across India. The latest SRS report on maternal mortality, based on the data from about half a million births, covers the period from 2018 to 2020. The most widely used indicator to understand how risky pregnancy and childbirth are in a region is the maternal mortality ratio (MMR), or the number of maternal deaths for every 100,000 live births. For every 100,000 live births in India in 2020, 97 women died of maternal causes. This translates to around 24,000 maternal deaths in one year alone. Maternal mortality levels in India vary widely across regions, with wealthier states generally having lower maternal mortality ratios. Kerala recorded the lowest MMR at 19 per 100,000 live births, which is even lower than the MMR in the United States, where it stands at 21… MMR in India has however significantly improved since the 1990s, driven by better access to healthcare, improved sanitation, enhanced nutrition, and broader social changes. Maternal mortality in India stood at 398 per 100,000 live births in 1998, and by 2020, this number had decreased to a quarter of that figure, with 97 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births.” Read more: Nileena Suresh, Data for India
“Behind the grimy facade of the public washroom, a clandestine network thrives. Anil and fellow sanitation workers converge to snag the “off-the-books” jobs. They seize the fleeting chances to have some extra earnings to send home, often as lifelines to loved ones awaiting sustenance… Asked about manual scavenging and sewer cleaning, Gangaram’s response was, “When I was younger, I was willing to undertake any work to earn something for that day. I was born in a jhuggi in Dhaula Kuan and will die in a jhuggi here in Raghubir Nagar. What choice did I have from the beginning of my life?” … For whatever sum they are offered, these labourers enter danger zones without safety gear whatsoever, not even masks. Most of the able-bodied labourers in the locality, according to Om Prakash, a 40-year-old caretaker of a public toilet, are anyway compelled to do sewer cleaning work by their contractors. These contractors, the sub-surface workers confided, threaten to withhold payment for work if they refuse to go down into the sewers and drains.” Read more: Devanshi Mehta, Times of India
“What are the chances that the frosty relationship between the Sangh and Modi’s BJP will thaw now that the party has won the Haryana assembly elections defying all forecasts and expectations?… In political circles, the BJP’s failure to secure a simple majority in the Lok Sabha was attributed partly to the indifference of the RSS during the election campaign. If the RSS did indeed play a hand in Haryana, has it proved a point? Since the Lok Sabha results in June, the acerbic public remarks of RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat have left little to the imagination… Aware of the BJP’s weakening grip on power at the Centre, the RSS seems to be going all out to bridge the gap between Delhi and Nagpur. Signs that despite all the claims and bravado, the BJP and RSS are losing ground in north India are concerns the RSS will want to address. Also, while Bhagwat may have ruled out any grand centenary celebrations next year, 2025 may well see the RSS usher in some dramatic changes. The new office, insiders say, is not just symbolic, it’s meant to closely watch over the ministries, the PMO and 7 Lok Kalyan Marg.” Read more: Rakesh Pathak, National Herald
“Ten years into the Modi government, non-IAS officers form the clear majority at the level of joint secretaries, often considered the most significant position in the central government. According to data ThePrint obtained under the Right to Information (RTI) Act, out of the 236 joint secretaries serving at the Centre, 156 officers—over 66 percent—are non-IAS… The relatively low-profile railway services benefitted the most from IAS officers’ diminishing dominance… The numbers show a complete makeover at one of the most pivotal positions in the Indian bureaucracy compared to how IAS officers dominated these positions five or six years ago… However, the induction of non-IAS officers in central government ranks did not translate into a push for domain expertise within the government. According to data obtained through the RTI, officers from specialised services such as accounts and audit, railways, forest, revenue, etc., are appointed in ministries having little to do with their domains. While non-IAS officers feel the change has been a long time coming, IAS officers, who keep shuttling between states and the Centre, see a deliberate attempt to sideline their services, making them politically less committed to one dispensation. As pointed out by a retired IAS officer, unlike IAS and IPS officers, officers of the Central Civil Services, which includes the other government services, are entirely the “creatures of the Centre”, making them more “committed” to the central dispensation.” Read more: Sanya Dhingra, The Print
“Historically, India has experienced uneven growth of population across regions and administrative units. Today, different parts of the country are staying at or passing through different stages of demographic transition… The first delimitation commission redrew electoral boundaries based on the population figures of the 1951 census. The second delimitation commission was set up in 1962, and it redrew electoral boundaries and redistributed seats on the basis of the 1961 census. The third delimitation commission was constituted in 1972, which prepared a delimitation plan based on the 1971 census. Thus, the first three rounds of delimitation occurred every 10 years as envisaged in the Constitution. Uninterrupted delimitation of electoral constituencies ensured that the variation in people to representative ratio (PRR) for Lok Sabha seats across states (minus the smaller ones) was insignificant… The suspension of delimitation for a long period of time has led to two negative consequences. First, it has created huge population disparities amongst constituencies within and across states. Broadly speaking, there have been two axes of population disparities. At one level, the urban constituencies have grown very large compared to rural ones because of increasing spatial mobility (from rural to urban areas). At another level, the northern states have seen a higher rate of population growth than the southern ones because of their failure to implement family planning programmes.” Read more: Mohd. Sanjeer Alam, The India Forum
Tech -
“BSNL has recently changed its logo along with offering seven new services in the Indian market. One of the major highlights of all the new features is providing access to a spam-free network to the users. Other solutions offered by BSNL are WiFi roaming service, intranet TV, and a lot more. Talking about the current scenario, BSNL’s 4G services are only available in limited circles of India and the telecom service provider is already prepping up for the launch of 5G services in the Indian market. BSNL has claimed that it is bringing a spam-free network backed by a custom program that eliminates spam communications… The company has also introduced a national WiFi roaming free service for all Fibrenet customers. The service will allow the users to take benefit of the high-speed internet at BSNL hotspots without paying any extra dime.” Read more: Nishit Raghuwanshi, Techlusive
“In a move that could likely target unregistered finfluencers, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has asked for public comments on a consultation paper regarding the recognition of ‘Specified Digital Platform’ (SDP). The paper discusses the preventive and pre-emptive measures a platform must take to prevent illegal activity and be recognised as an SDP. According to SEBI, registered entities must not associate with unregistered finfluencers who illegally provide advice, recommendations or make any claim, of returns or performance related to a security or securities, explicitly or implicitly through content or advertisements. These entities include stock exchanges, recognised clearing corporations and registered depositories, and their agents. However, these provisions did not apply if entities were associating with unregistered individuals through a specified digital platform.” Read more: Simone Lobo, Medianama
“Shares of Indian fintech firm Paytm jumped nearly 6% on Wednesday after the country's payments regulator allowed the company to sign new users for digital payments via UPI, which analysts said removed a key regulatory overhang. UPI, or Unified Payments Interface, is India's home-grown real-time payments system that allows users to transfer money digitally without disclosing bank account details. It is one of the country's most popular online payment method. The National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) gave Paytm permission to restart onboarding new UPI customers, the company said late on Tuesday. That was hours after it reported second-quarter results that showed it barely slowed its revenue decline as its digital payments user base dwindled since the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) ordered the winding down of Paytm's banking unit in January due to persistent compliance issues… To be sure, Paytm has still not cleared all regulatory hurdles. The RBI, also India's financial regulator, is yet to give the company a license for payment aggregation, a third-party service that allows businesses to accept and disburse payments online.” Read more: Reuters
“Kaynes Technologies is a four-decade-old listed integrated electronics manufacturer. It is now setting up a 47-acre OSAT facility under Kaynes Semicon. The fabrication unit will have the capacity to produce 60 Lakh chips per day… Supported by an established electronics design and manufacturing (ESDM) business and government initiatives, Kaynes Semicon aims to capture a significant share of the Indian semiconductor market, which is projected to grow from $33 Bn in 2023 to $150 Bn by 2030. As per Panicker, chips designed by SoC (system on chip) companies like Infineon, Texas Instruments, Microchip, NXP, and even Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm are already being consumed by new-age manufacturing startups like Ola Electric, Atomberg and others… Kaynes Semicon’s parent Kaynes Technology has a strong customer base across other sectors, too, and it counts names such as Intel, Schneider Electric, Honeywell, Bosch, Tata Communications, and ISRO in its list of clients.” Read more: Tapanjana Rudra, Inc42