India Last Week #21
India Last Week #21
A round-up of research & reportage on India across climate, energy, foreign policy, politics & more over the last week
Climate, Energy & Environment -
“Hundreds of copies of the Environment Ministry’s elephant census report — Status of Elephant in India 2022-23 — have been gathering dust since February this year. The government hasn’t released the report citing a delay in the census in the Northeast. The data from the unreleased report, reviewed by The Indian Express, shows a 20 per cent drop in the elephant population from five years ago, with the Central Indian and Eastern Ghats even recording an alarming 41 per cent dip compared with 2017 estimates… When contacted, the ministry said this is an interim report. The final report, including the estimation of elephants in the northeast, is expected by the end of June 2025, it said.” Read more: Jay Mazoomdaar, Indian Express
“This study reports the results from daily surveys of nearly 400 workers in two slums in Delhi for a month in the summer of 2019. Every degree Celsius increase in wet bulb temperature was associated with a fall in gross earnings of 13(± 3.5) percentage points, a fall in earnings net of work-related expenditure of 19(± 4.5) percentage points, an increase in the self-reported probability of sickness of the worker or a family member of 6(± 0.5) percentage points, and a decrease in the probability that a worker went to work of 2(± 0.5) percentage points. Net earnings were 40\% lower during the two heatwaves that occurred during the study period.” Read more: Saudamini Das and E. Somanathan, Environmental Research
“A major source of air pollution in some agricultural regions is seasonal fires caused by farmers burning crop residue, which also harms neighboring areas due to wind flows. This represents a major externality – an indirect cost to the public arising from individuals’ actions – and one the Indian government has introduced multiple measures to reduce, with limited efficacy… Can Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES), whereby cash transfers are given out conditional on not burning, improve on the status quo?... A randomized controlled trial (RCT) in the northern Indian state of Punjab found that Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) contracts with partial upfront payments reduced crop residue burning by 10 percentage points, while standard PES contracts without upfront payments showed no effect on burning compared to the control group.” Read more: Rohini Pande, Kelsey Jack, Seema Jayachandran, and Namrata Kala, American Economic Review
“India has witnessed a 500% increase in groundwater consumption over the past half-century making it one of the greatest groundwater guzzlers in the world… Output subsidies are provided to farmers in India via guaranteed government procurement of water-intensive crops like rice and wheat at pre-determined prices. This policy was introduced during the Green Revolution of the 1960s in the Punjab region and has subsequently expanded to other states… Researchers and experts have argued that while the policy was justifiable during the 1960s as India faced acute food scarcity, it is no longer optimal… [I]n this work, we show that the output subsidy policy is a significant driver of groundwater stress not only in the deep alluvial aquifers of northwestern India but also in the hard rock aquifers of central India. Additionally, we show that not paying attention to the nature of aquifers can lead to an underestimation of the effects of output subsidies on groundwater stress.” Read more: Shoumitro Chatterjee, Rohit Lamba and Esha D. Zaveri, Nature Communications
Economy -
“It's raining investments in Tamil Nadu, as the state nets close to 1 trillion rupees (approx. $12 billion) in commitments this year. India's most industrialized state and largest exporter of cars and electronics now competes with not just Gujarat or Maharashtra, but Vietnam and Mexico… The China Plus One trend is what is driving investments to India and especially to Tamil Nadu, TRB Rajaa, the state's industries minister, told me. India is producing to global standards, he said, adding that some Japanese investors send their teams to Chennai to study low-defect manufacturing… Since Gujarat bagged the two biggest semiconductor projects, Tamil Nadu has set its sights on new investments in compound semiconductors, chip design and life sciences… When it comes to commerce, the state has the largest number of factories (many small and medium sized) and factory jobs, and the best export preparedness, but lags behind Maharashtra and others in foreign investment.” Read more: Menaka Doshi, Bloomberg
“The latest Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) for 2022-23 paints a dismal picture of India’s labour productivity and income levels—wage growth has lately been slower than inflation, and value added per worker actually contracted in 2022-23. In other words, while output and employment have increased, workers have seen their real incomes shrink, and their productivity fall—highlighting a stark contrast between quantity and quality of employment… Three of the four years between 2019-20 and 2022-23 saw wage growth come in lower than the rate of inflation, effectively meaning that workers saw their real incomes shrink. This trend started in the pre-pandemic year of 2019-20, when inflation exceeded wage growth by 0.8 percentage points… Finally, the data shows that the growth in the overall GVA for the manufacturing sector has been slowing to very low levels, once the impact of inflation is accounted for… That is, where the sector’s GVA grew 9.4 percent in 2014-15 in nominal terms (without incorporating inflation), the real growth after factoring in the 6 percent inflation that year was actually only 3.4 percent.” Read more: TCA Sharad Raghavan, The Print
“The recently released Annual Report of the latest Period Labour Force Survey (2023-24) shows a continuation in the trend of increasing labour force participation rates (LFPR) and worker population ratios (WPRs) and decreasing unemployment rates (UR) observed since the first PLFS conducted in 2017-18… Even a superficial glance at the data show that most of these trends are being driven by women’s employment. Since the 1980s, India had been facing a situation of declining female LFPRs in rural (except for an increase in 2004-05) until a reversal of this trend in 2017-18. In urban areas, the FLFPRs have been more or less stagnant but low, and even here there seems to be an increase in recent years… While further analysis is required to unpack this trend of increasing FLFPRs along with a much higher share of self-employment, the sectoral distribution of employment observed also show that at least partly this has to do with distress. The share of agriculture in rural women’s employment is still very high and has also increased from 73.2% in 2017-18 to 76.9%. In urban areas there is no major shift with a large proportion of women workers being in ‘other services’ and in manufacturing. Therefore, this increase in labour force participation is not accompanied by any positive structural change in employment, rather is mostly dependent on agriculture.” Read more: Dipa Sinha, The Wire
“Of the three reasons for the humiliating performance of the Bharatiya Janata Party in the Lok Sabha elections a few months ago, one was high actual inflation, the other two being unemployment and lack of any real change in living conditions. Official inflation is low but real inflation on the ground is not… While the overall inflation is low, food inflation is almost in double digits. Also, official inflation is low because oil prices are low, which India can’t claim credit for. The fact is, only three-four countries in the past 100 years have transformed themselves into developed nations - Japan in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, Taiwan and South Korea in the mid-20th century, and China in the 1990s. Such radical transformation has three markers. One is farm-sector reforms, which would lead to a high rural surplus. The second is double-digit growth in manufacturing for years together. And the third is trade surplus from higher value-added products. Just ask yourself, have we even taken the first step on our journey towards any of these goals?” Read more: Debashis Basu, Business Standard
Foreign Policy & Security -
“Ministry of Defence (MoD) data indicates that India's defence exports reached a record Rs 22,000 crore (US $2.63 billion) in 2023-2024. This amounts to a startling 31-fold growth over the past decade since 2013-14. Exports growth is showing no signs of diminishing either. Rather, exports have risen 32.5 per cent over the previous financial year (2022-2023)... The sharp uptick in India’s defence exports is due partly to our migration up the valuation ladder. As recently as a decade ago, India’s defence exports consisted mainly of low-cost ammunition and weaponry… Major defence exporters like the US have a dedicated department – called the Office of Defense Cooperation (ODC) – to oversee weapons sales and distribute responsibilities. This has resulted in a “munitions list” to tighten controls; while a standard operating procedure (SOP) has been promulgated for export controls. However, other than a small cell in the Department of Defence Promotion, we have no agency specifically charged with all export-related functions.” Read more: Ajai Shukla, Broadsword
“Visiting Moscow in early July, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi described Russia as New Delhi’s “trusted ally” and “all-weather friend”, referring to the decades-old strategic collaboration between the two nations. Yet, less than three months later, that relationship is being tested, especially after reports that Kyiv has accessed Indian ammunition and is using it in the Russia-Ukraine war. An investigation by the Reuters news agency suggests that Indian shells, bought by Italy and the Czech Republic, have been routed to Ukraine… Russian officials are unconvinced by India’s response, and pose a central question: Has New Delhi pressured buyers of its shells to make sure it does not reach the war in Ukraine? “There is ample proof of Indian artillery shells being used by Ukrainian forces. There are even photographs to suggest that,” a Russian official told Al Jazeera, requesting anonymity. He pointed to the end-user agreements that accompany all military exports — for sellers to track the final users of their sold armaments.” Read more: Sanjay Kapoor, Al Jazeera
“After being sworn in as prime minister for the third consecutive time, Narendra Modi has continued with his spree of foreign travel… He fancies these foreign jaunts where he is welcomed by foreign leaders, gets to hug them, address the curated crowd of his supporters among the local Indian diaspora, and garner some nice pictures and choreographed videos to be posted on social media… In the past decade under Modi, the reality has been rather different. Take the case of his recent trip to Russia. The sole outcome highlighted by Indian officials after his meeting with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, was the return of young Indian men fighting along with Russians on the Ukraine front… Three months later, nearly half of the 91 Indians remain trapped in Russia. The US was also not happy with Modi’s Moscow visit as it coincided with the NATO summit. A few days back, we witnessed the rather ignominious footage, released by Russian television, of the national security adviser, Ajit Doval, sitting on the edge of his chair like a supplicant, briefing an imperious Putin about all that transpired on Modi’s trip to Ukraine.” Read more: Sushant Singh, The Telegraph
“Since the nineteenth century, European powers, the United States and Russia, were dominant extra-regional powers in the Middle East (Barr, 2018; Takeyh & Simon, 2016). These powers had a vital interest in accessing and controlling strategic goods, such as crude oil and gas, as well as maintaining freedom of navigation in the region. Over the last two decades, however, China and India have become increasingly involved in Middle Eastern affairs… The region has been key for India and China’s energy security, and, to some degree, for their own domestic political stability. This development has happened as many regional actors have remarked a gradual decline of US interest and involvement in the Middle East… [T]his article argues that while India faces direct security challenges from a rising China on its borders in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, the competitive dimension of Sino-Indian relations is not as acute in the Middle East, and this has led to the absence of explicit hard balancing from India. India has not yet developed a notable military presence or joined any military alliances in the Middle East.” Read more: Nicolas Blarel, Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs
“India will participate in the 6th round of Moscow Format talks on Afghanistan on Friday, looking to renew its engagement with the Taliban whose acting foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi will also attend the meeting… Addressing the humanitarian situation, formation of an inclusive and representative government, concerted efforts to counter terrorism and regional security remain high on India’s agenda for Afghanistan.. Indian representative, MEA joint secretary JP Singh, is also expected to have a bilateral meeting with Muttaqi and other Taliban officials on the sidelines of the meeting. While India has not officially recognized the Taliban, it has surprised many by establishing a working relationship with the regime in Kabul, owing mainly to its humanitarian support to the people of Afghanistan.” Read more: Sachin Parashar, Times of India
“Nepal, India, and Bangladesh have signed a trilateral agreement to trade 40 megawatts of electricity. The historic deal, signed in Kathmandu on Thursday, for the first time allows Nepal to sell electricity to a third country. Thus far, Nepal’s energy trade had been taking place only with India, the southern neighbour… As per the agreement, Bangladesh will now import 40 megawatts of electricity from Nepal. The Indian side has also been involved as Nepal’s electricity will be transmitted to Bangladesh through the transmission infrastructure on the Indian territory. Nepal and Bangladesh are not territorially linked. Nepal is expected to sell 144,000 MWh (megawatt-hour) of electricity in five months—mid-June to mid-November—every year at the rate of 6.4 US cents a unit.” Read more: Kathmandu Post
People & Politics -
“The Union government on Thursday defended the marital rape exception in rape laws on the grounds that removing it would destroy the institution of marriage, even as it asked the court to respect the legislature’s wisdom in retaining the exception, arguing that Parliament has done so after understanding complex socio-economic and cultural aspects… The government asserted that while consent is foundational, breaches of this consent in marriage should be dealt with through less severe penalties than the“ghastly” provisions applied to cases involving strangers… The affidavit maintained that Parliament has adequately balanced these rights by enacting alternative provisions because applying the harsh label of “rape” to marital settings could potentially destabilise the institution itself.” Read more: Utkarsh Anand, Hindustan Times
“Ever since the Bharatiya Janata Party came to power for the first time in Haryana in 2014, gau rakshaks in the state have been associated with incidents of harassment, assault and even murder. Most of their victims have been Muslim. The BJP state government even set up “cow task forces” of the police that works in tandem with these groups, providing state backing for their violence… Members of these groups told Scroll that they had stood with the BJP in the 2019 assembly elections. However, with time, their expectations with the government have also increased which the Hindutva party has not been able to fulfill. “The BJP government has been good to us, but it has not supported us enough,” Jat said. A key unfulfilled demand, said Pavan Kumar, a member of the Gau Raksha Dal Faridabad, is that indigenous cows be designated as rashtriya mata – literally national mother… Another common refrain among gau rakhaks was that they had to finance their own vigilante operations. Thakran said that the Haryana government had failed on its assurances to gau raksha groups to provide more ambulances for injured cattle and vehicles for night patrols. Jat also added that the government should have taken care of stray cattle on roads and housed them in cow sheds.” Read more: Vineet Bhalla, Scroll
“The Supreme Court today (October 3) declared that provisions relating to caste-based discriminatory practices in prison manuals are unconstitutional, and directed all states and Union Territories to revise their Prison Manuals, in a landmark judgment… Reading out the judgement, Chief Justice of India D.Y. Chandrachud, heading a bench also of Justices Pardiwala and Manoj Misra, congratulated the journalist and said that had it not been for Sukanya Shantha’s report, the injustice may have never come to light.” Read more: The Wire
“A host of journalists’ welfare organisations on Thursday (October 3, 2024) resolved to resist in peaceful and democratic forms the “assault” on the freedom of speech and expression of media. Marking the anniversary of 2023’s raid on news website Newsclick, the Press Club of India, the Delhi Union of Journalists, the Indian Women’s Press Corps, Press Association, and the Kerala Union of Working Journalists passed a resolution that said: “The right to life, a fundamental constitutional right, cannot exist without the right to work. The two are inextricably connected”... In recent years, India had been characterised by the Committee to Protect Journalists as one of the most dangerous places for journalists, especially investigative reporters. “The campaign to defend media independence and freedom cannot succeed if it is episodic,” Mr. Ram said, adding that the bigger challenge of the day was to develop a sustained campaign in a toxic information ecosystem where disinformation and politics of hate ran riot on social media and also in some sections of mainstream media.” Read more: The Hindu
“Shailaja Paik was born into India’s Dalit community — one of the millions who belong to historically marginalized and oppressed castes due to their professions… She’s one of 22 recipients of the 2024 MacArthur fellowship, one of the most prestigious awards for creative and intellectual achievement — informally known as “the genius grant.”.. A research professor of history at the University of Cincinnati, Paik is not a public figure as some recipients are. She has documented the deep social inequity rising from India’s repressive caste system that she is a part of. Her focus is the plight of Dalit women like herself.” Read more: Kamala Thiagarajan, NPR
“The RSS and Modi supporters have portrayed Modi as India's first decolonial prime minister. The narrative of history on which they base this argument is that the main opposition, the Congress Party, which led the Indian independence movement from British rule, was in fact dominated by colonial stooges. They also claim that prior to the British, India suffered from hundreds of years of colonial rule at the hands of raping, pillaging, looting Mughals… Ekbote's objection to the Dalit celebrations of the Bhima Koregaon battle, which seemingly ignited the riots of January 2018, is part of this broader RSS narrative of decolonization which has deep roots in its Hindutva intellectuals… Targeting Adivasis and Dalits is more nuanced: the message is selective incorporation rather than the outright rejection that Muslims face. Adivasis and Dalits together make up as much as 25% of the Indian population and are important political constituencies and vote banks for the BJP. For those who converted to Christianity to escape the caste system, the message is to leave that foreign/colonial religion and return to Hinduism… The Bhima Koregaon case warns that decolonization can and has been hijacked by authoritarian forces. As Indians with “Hindu Lives Matter” placards demonstrating outside the BBC London offices show, this is not just a concern about what is happening in some faraway land. In fact, it has already emerged in university contexts outside of India.” Read more: Alpa Shah, American Anthropologist
Tech -
“The Indian government has unveiled BharatGen, the first government-funded initiative for developing multimodal LLMs, which stands for building “GenAI for Bharat, by Bharat.”... Spearheaded by IIT Bombay under the National Mission on Interdisciplinary Cyber-Physical Systems (NM-ICPS) of the Department of Science and Technology (DST), BharatGen focuses on creating AI models tailored for India’s diverse languages and cultural contexts… The project is being executed by the TIH Foundation for IoT and IOE at IIT Bombay, in collaboration with several leading academic institutions, including IIT Bombay, IIIT Hyderabad, IIT Mandi, IIT Kanpur, IIT Hyderabad, IIM Indore, and IIT Madras… BharatGen stands out with four key features: its multilingual and multimodal foundation models, the use of datasets specific to India for model building and training, its open-source platform, and the creation of an ecosystem for generative AI research across the nation.” Read more: Mohit Pandey, Analytics India Mag
“The rise of Blinkit, Zepto, Swiggy, Instamart has certainly thrown a big curveball to ecommerce giants Amazon India, Flipkart and Meesho. So how large of a dent will quick commerce make on the biggest sales season for these ecommerce giants? … Industry insiders and experts believe while the quick commerce capacity-building is impressive, it will take a lot more to dethrone marketplaces as the primary festive season destinations for online shoppers. That’s because a majority of the festive season sales in India are driven by non-impulsive shopping behaviour where trust factor, planning, pricing and brand legacy are important metrics for shoppers. Quick commerce players still have a way to go in this regard. Data released by market intelligence firm Datum Intelligence last week suggested that quick commerce players will only contribute around $1 Bn in GMV to the total estimated GMV of $12 Bn during the festive season sales.” Read more: Bismah Malik, Inc42
“Hindi is the world’s most widely spoken language after English and Mandarin. Yet it constitutes only 0.1% of all freely accessible content on the internet. That is one obstacle to India developing its own generative artificial-intelligence (ai) models, which rely on vast amounts of training data… Generative ai tools such as Chatgpt, a chatbot, are powered by large language models, or llms. The “language” bit is crucial: without a corpus of data it is impossible to make models, whether large or tiny. That is one reason why, two years into the new ai race triggered by the launch of Chatgpt, India has yet to produce any noteworthy ai innovations. But behind the scenes the government, non-profit outfits, Indian startups and global tech giants are working to adapt the technology to the country’s needs. The pace and scale of their success will influence India’s progress in the coming century. It will also offer lessons for other developing countries.” Read more: The Economist
Bonus -
“In the Indian context, it has been argued that educational decentralization received a significant boost following the constitutional amendments of 1992, which mandated local government school management in rural and urban areas across India. However, drawing from the history of school management in India, we show that in colonial India, government-funded schools were locally managed by district boards and municipal bodies. By studying the education Acts of Indian states post-independence, we show that nearly all states adopted a centralized management system with state-controlled appointment and transfer of teachers and funding. Nationally, about 77% of government schools are managed by the state Department of Education, while only 18% of schools are controlled by local bodies. By analyzing sections of the Right to Education Act of 2009, we show that while the Act advocates for decentralized management of schools, it fails to devolve funds and functionaries to the local level.” Read more: Shivakumar Jolad and Khushi Rajpuria, Management in Education
Watch/Listen -
Sukrit Puri on the Entanglement between Business and Politics in India | Ideas of India podcast at the Mercatus Center
India’s Evolving Manufacturing Landscape | India’s Minister of Commerce and Industry, Piyush Goyal, in conversation with Richard Rossow, Center for Strategic and International Studies
This is great. Thanks for putting it together!
Much appreciated, by an NRI in London.