India Last Week #20
A round-up of research & reportage on India across climate, energy, foreign policy, politics & more over the last week
Climate, Energy & Environment -
“The Shompen are a particularly vulnerable tribal group. They are semi-nomads. And then there are the Nicobarese who are more ‘contemporary’. ‘Shompen’ is what the Nicobarese call them. It is a distorted form of ‘Shamhanp’ or ‘Somhanp' which means forest dweller. In earlier literature, it was spelt ‘Shom Pen’. Till today, we do not know how the Shompen identify themselves. They prefer a life of their own… There is a sense of betrayal among the Nicobarese community because their signatures for diversion of forest land for the project were taken by force and without providing correct information. They were made to attend the meeting without knowing the agenda. So, they withdrew their consent. With the Shompen, there is no dialogue at all! The government has not engaged in any dialogue with the Shompen about the mega project.” Read more: Rishika Pardikar, Article 14
“India and the United States are likely to sign an initial pact for cooperation on critical minerals this week, two Indian government sources said, as the two countries try to bolster trade ties despite diplomatic hiccups. They are expected to sign an agreement to partner and cooperate in the area of critical minerals during Indian trade minister Piyush Goyal's visit to Washington, the sources said… The initial pact on critical minerals would help build supply chains, exchange technical know-how, and promote collaboration between Indian and American businesses in the sector, the first official said… India has also proposed a separate critical minerals trade deal with the United States. This deal would prohibit the imposition of tariffs by both countries and will be similar to a pact with Japan that grants Japanese automakers wider access to U.S. electric vehicles tax credit.” Read more: Economic Times
“Thousands of tribals residing in the core zones of India’s tiger reserves have launched protests against the government’s directive to accelerate their relocation from these areas. The tribal communities, asserting their rights under the Forest Rights Act, are now planning to gather in Delhi to demand “justice” for their livelihoods and traditions that are closely linked to the forests. The National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA) issued an order on June 19, directing forest officials to expedite the rehabilitation of 64,801 families from 591 villages located within the core areas of 54 tiger reserves… Tribal and indigenous communities residing in the core areas say they have lived in harmony with nature and forests for generations and their livelihoods, culture, and traditions are deeply connected to the forest ecosystem. Under the Forest Rights Act (FRA), 2006, these communities are granted individual and community rights to access, manage and use forest resources, as well as live in these forests.” Read more: Gaurav Saini, The Print
“Over the past decade, climate change has increasingly come to the focus of Indian academics and policymakers. But, until recently, explicit attention to climate change by the Indian judiciary has been limited. This is poised to change with the Supreme Court’s March 2024 judgment in MK Ranjitsinh v. Union of India… For those interested in climate change, but also for the much larger audience interested in understanding how climate change could impact decision making in many spheres of Indian policy, it is well worth unpacking and understanding this judgment and how it is likely to be interpreted… We share the view that Ranjitsinh is potentially groundbreaking, and could open the door to an array of creative legal and policy pathways through the articulation of a climate right anchored in Article 14 and Article 21. But we are cautious because the judgment could also be interpreted in ways that conflate action on climate change with action on renewable energy, and contribute to an inadequate and incomplete framing for future climate law and policy… Since Ranjitsinh invariably dwells on the specific issue before the court – infrastructure for renewable energy – it provides limited guidance on operationalising the new right to be free from the adverse effects of climate change that it reads into the Constitution.” Read more: Navroz Dubash and Shibani Ghosh, The India Forum
Economy -
“India’s economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of global geopolitical challenges and is poised for steady growth,” said ADB Country Director for India Mio Oka. “Agricultural improvements will enhance rural spending, which will complement the effects of robust performance of the industry and services sectors.” The report highlights that an above-average monsoon in most parts of the country will lead to strong agricultural growth, enhancing the rural economy in FY2024. It maintains a positive outlook for the industry and services sectors, private investment, and urban consumption for FY2024 and FY2025. Additionally, a new government policy offering employment-linked incentives to workers and firms could increase labor demand and support job creation starting in FY2025.” Read more: Asian Development Bank
“The share of Indians who work in manufacturing is lower than in comparable countries, at 11%, and has not much budged for years. Exports of textiles and garments, one of the biggest sub-sectors, have actually fallen in value over a decade… India’s clothing and textile industry is the third-largest sector by employment, after farming and construction. Yet only a fraction of its 45m workers labour in the formal industry, meaning for firms that are registered and pay tax… Amended labour laws were passed a few years ago. But their implementation has stalled at the state level. In any case, say firms, the reforms have not tackled their biggest concerns. Goodies that have supposedly been made available through the government’s flagship industrial-subsidy scheme (“production-linked incentives”, or plis) are “too hard to get”, says Mr Ahuja. The subsidy requires a minimum size of investment. Most clothes-makers do not qualify because they split big investments across a number of factories in order to make sure that they are close to workers.” Read more: The Economist
“The change in the tax regime from the earlier value-added tax (VAT) to the goods and services tax (GST) marked a transition from a source-based tax to a destination-based tax for states. In the previous regime, inter-state transactions were taxed by the exporting state, whereas now, the revenues accrue to the destination state. This change in the design of the tax regime was argued to shift the revenue to consuming states from producing states… To understand the impact of GST on this aspect of economic activity, we can explore the changes in the share of Integrated GST (IGST) settlements in the total revenue collection of states. IGST is the tax levied on inter-state transactions — the tax is collected by the Union government, with full input tax credit made available to the exporting state. This would mean that the exporting state does not get any revenue from this transaction. On the other hand, in the importing state, the importer can claim input tax credit against local sales, thus transferring the revenue to the importing state.” Read more: R. Kavita Rao, Business Standard
“The state has an important role to play in solving this market failure by encouraging spending on activities that generate innovation. In India, the government did so by: (i) building research organisations like CSIR and ISRO and hiring career scientists, and (ii) providing tax exemptions. The Income Tax Act, since its inception in 1961, has exempted expenditures on scientific research. Since 1996-97, goods used for R & D have been exempt from customs and excise duties. In the last ten years, both the Union and various state governments have perceived "startups" as major drivers of innovation. A host of incentives have been put in place for them. These include: (i) reduced fees and priority in processing patent and design applications; (ii) full exemptions on income tax for the startup following approval from an Inter-ministerial Board (IMB); (iii) priority during public procurement, etc. However, in a previous article (Chitgupi et al., 2023), we analysed Indian patent filings and grants and found that, despite enjoying government incentives, the overall share of startups in patent filings and grants --- a proxy for innovation --- remains small. Moreover, only a few startups receive income tax exemptions aimed at spurring innovation… We note that "startups" are not necessarily major drivers of innovation in India. Firm size has no role to play in how innovative it can be. Therefore, tax exemptions for startups, even if they are "innovative", have little measurable effect on innovation in Indian society as a whole. Mashelkar et al (2024) recommend that the government "buy" i.e. contract out more research and innovation functions to firms in the private sector. The spillovers this can generate would be substantive and would have a multiplier effect.” Read more: Aneesha Chitgupi, Karthik Suresh, and Diya Uday, The Leap Journal
People & Politics -
“For the first time since Modi catapulted to power in 2014, the BJP is reliant on its NDA coalition partners to stake its claim to the government… On paper, at least, these results heralded a return to coalition politics—marking a sharp break with the previous decade of unquestioned BJP single-party dominance. Between 1989 and 2014, India experienced a “coalition era” of national politics in which no single party was powerful enough to form the government on its own… The resurgence of coalition politics in New Delhi and the presence of a much stronger political opposition together raise the question of whether the 2024 verdict reflects a repudiation of the fourth-party system and a reversion to a more decentralized, fragmented era.6 Drawing on newly available data from the 2024 general election, this paper argues that, while the 2024 verdict represents a curtailing of the BJP’s dominance, many attributes of the fourth-party system remain intact. Although the BJP fell short of a parliamentary majority, it remains a system-defining party. By and large, parties contest elections in India in favor of, or in opposition to, the Modi-led BJP. Furthermore, the BJP remains the single largest party in terms of its presence in the Lok Sabha, the Rajya Sabha (India’s upper house), and the country’s various state assemblies. While the recent general election results produced a greater degree of political fragmentation, stimulated more intense political competition, and lacked a coherent, all-India narrative, prevailing political conditions have more in common with a dominant party system than truly decentralized coalition politics.” Read more: Milan Vaishnav and Caroline Mallory, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
“Last fortnight, armed gangsters looted and torched to cinders an entire settlement of Dalits near Nawada in central Bihar; nobody was killed, fortuitously, but the assailants would probably not have hesitated to take lives. They came armed, they fired several rounds in the air as they arrived. The victims, as often in Bihar, were Dalits, from the Musahar and Ravidas communities. Their tormentors, as rarely in Bihar, were also Dalits, from the Paswan community. Another layer of feudal hierarchy — and excess — may have been inaugurated in the state — politically more empowered and economically prosperous Dalits oppressing ‘lesser’ Dalits.” Read more: Sankarshan Thakur, Telegraph
“The Supreme Court on Monday directed that a student who lost out on his seat at Indian Institute of Technology Dhanbad after failing by a few minutes to meet the deadline to pay the requisite fee of Rs 17,500 be granted admission… Kumar had approached the court saying his father was a daily-wage labourer and that by the time he arranged the fee amount of Rs 17,500 for the electrical engineering course at IIT Dhanbad which was allotted to him, the server of the portal had stopped responding. He initially approached the Madras High Court since IIT Madras was the JEE Advanced exam authority for the year. After the high court said the relief sought by Kumar was not under its jurisdiction, he approached the Supreme Court.” Read more: Ananthakrishnan G, Indian Express
“Thirty years ago, when Bilal was a young man struggling to make ends meet, he bought a small house of three rooms in Khatakheri. It was a modest beginning. His eldest son was just five or six at the time, and Bilal and his wife dreamt of creating a home that would provide security and stability for their growing family. Bilal ran a small tea shop along with his brother, barely earning enough to cover their needs, but every spare rupee was put towards the house… Rumours of violence at the clock tower area spread quickly and reached Khatakheri. Like everyone else in the neighbourhood, Bilal’s wife immediately began fearing whatever would come next upon hearing the speculation of the clashes… It wasn’t long before the dreaded sound of a bulldozer echoed through the streets. The machine rumbled down the thin lane, its massive claw poised to strike. Inside the house, the women of Bilal’s family were huddled together in a back room on the first floor, clutching their children closely… The demolition was partial—the bulldozer tore down a section of the front wall before the police called it off. But the damage was done. The house, that became a home over a period of thirty years, a symbol of the family’s hard work and perseverance, was now a scarring reminder of the violence that had been visited upon them.” Read more: The Polis Project
“The Central Bureau of Investigation has closed the case registered against NDTV, Prannoy Roy, Radhika Roy, and others in 2017 for alleged causing a wilful loss of over Rs 48 crore to ICICI bank. The central agency has closed the case for “want of evidence”, a source told The Wire… At the time, former officers of the premier investigative agency had flagged as unusual and irregular the fact that the CBI had taken cognisance of a private complaint in the matter even though ICICI bank had not filed any complaint of its own… The CBI raid triggered protests by journalists and the opposition, who saw the raids as an attack on press freedom. At the time, NDTV was considered the only television news channel in India willing to be critical of the Modi government. The Roys were summoned and questioned in this matter by the CBI as late as 2022 while the Adani Group was moving to acquire the channel… The Adani group’s subsequent acquisition of NDTV was seen in India and abroad as a ‘big blow to independent media’.” Read more: Arvind Gunasekar, The Wire
Foreign Policy & Security -
“As India and China discuss a potential resolution of their dispute along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) that has been ongoing for four years, Chinese negotiators have suggested to New Delhi that their troops be allowed to patrol in two sensitive areas along Arunachal Pradesh. The two spots — one in the Yangtse area north-east of Tawang, where the two sides had a deadly clash in December 2022, and the second in central Arunachal along the Subansiri river valley — have been firmly under Indian control for decades. The recent Chinese demand came in response to the 21 rounds of talks that have been held between the two sides over the past four years, to discuss the existing dispute on the LAC in eastern Ladakh… Government sources, speaking to The Tribune on the condition of anonymity, said the Chinese demands were “unreasonable” and “devoid of logic”… The government sources reiterated that the so-called Chinese demand to allow its troops to patrol these two spots in Arunachal Pradesh was not a “quid pro quo”, as both had been in Indian control for decades.” Read more: Ajay Banerjee, The Tribune
“[T]he Pakistan-India non-attack agreement can serve as a guiding principle for other states to follow at both the bilateral and multilateral levels. The accord was signed between Islamabad and New Delhi in 1988 and came into force in 1991. It has survived for more than 30 years and has endured many small and major crises during that time. Under the agreement, the two countries pledged to “refrain from undertaking, encouraging, or participating in actions aimed at causing destruction or damage to nuclear installations or facilities in each country”. As part of its verification measures, on January 1 every year, each country shares a list detailing the location of all of its nuclear facilities with the other side. The bilateral agreement serves as an important example that can be followed for mitigating security risks to nuclear plants in conflict zones.” Read more: Abdul Moiz Khan, South China Morning Post
“Senior officials led by Union Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw undertook a three-day trip to Japan in September to resolve a number of problems that have resulted in a deadlock between India and Japan over Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pet project — the bullet train. Sources said, among the problems they discussed were Japan’s insistence on Japanese vendors for the trains and signalling systems, as well as costing and timing estimates for the completion of the project. Member (Infrastructure) Railway Board, Anil Kumar Khandelwal, and Vivek Kumar Gupta, Managing Director of the National High Speed Rail Corporation Ltd (NHSRCL), also accompanied Mr. Vaishnaw, sources said, as pressure to complete construction milestones in the project grows ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Tokyo for the annual summit later this year… “Japan which is providing all the technical support and technology for running the bullet trains is keen that the train sets and the signalling system be purchased from Japanese suppliers only,” sources in the know told The Hindu. According to Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) loan conditions, only Japanese manufacturers such as Kawasaki and Hitachi can participate in the bid. The increase in the project’s costing is also becoming another issue. According to NHSRCL figures, an expenditure of up to ₹60,372 crore (unaudited) has already occurred between FY 2020-21 to FY 2023-24, against a total outlooked budget of ₹1.08 lakh crore.” Read more: Maitri Porecha and Suhasini Haidar, The Hindu
“India and France are nearing a deal for the acquisition of Rafale Marine fighter jets for Indian aircraft carriers. The Indian Navy requires 26 fighter jets capable of operating from its aircraft carriers. After several rounds of negotiations, the price offer has been significantly reduced, and the deal will be benchmarked on the 2016 deal for 36 Rafale jets acquired for the Indian Air Force… The Defence Acquisition Council, led by Rajnath Singh, approved certain amendments that led to the offering of a final price bid. These included dropping an earlier plan to integrate an Indian radar and weapons on the naval jets due to the high cost and estimated timeline of eight years for completion. The Rafale Ms are being purchased as a stop gap arrangement until the development of indigenous twin-engined deck-based fighters by the Aeronautical Development Agency.” Read more: Times of India
“Today, it is a tragedy that India’s rich history as a leader and coordinator of Global South power and solidarity through the vehement rejection of apartheid in South Africa via diplomatic, commercial, cultural, and sports boycotts; condemnation of the war in Vietnam and recognition of the government in North Vietnam in 1972 (three years before the Fall of Saigon); and military support for the Bangladeshi War of Independence has been replaced by weak rhetorical gestures… Further illustrating this nihilist turn, over the last year, Indian foreign policy has been diminished to parroting the quite dead reality of a two-state solution; indicating support for a ceasefire yet using no diplomatic tools towards the same; abstaining in a United Nations General Assembly vote that Israel “end its unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory without delay and within the next 12 months”; and lastly, by materially supporting the Israeli state by sending at least 6000 construction workers to replace Palestinian workers whose permits the Israeli government suspended en masse after 7 October.” Read more: Zainab Firdausi, The Quint
Tech -
“Seven days after the principal scientific advisor (PSA) replied to scientists on the issue of omission of two academics from the list of Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar awards, another group of academics shot a letter to him. There are 176 signatories of this second letter which was written to PSA, Ajay Sood, on September 24. While most of them are from the scientific community, a few other academics hailing from various other backgrounds as well have signed the letter. Some of the signatories of this letter are former heads of institutions like Inter-University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Indian Institutes of Science Education and Research, and Indian Institute of Astrophysics… The award was instituted about 60 years ago. The signatories have said the practice of “involving non-academic considerations” in the selection process is “a rather unhealthy development for Indian science”.” Read more: The Wire
“These supercomputers worth Rs 130 crore will be deployed in Pune, Delhi and Kolkata to facilitate pioneering scientific research and will help in many fields like science, healthcare, and space research… Giant Metre Radio Telescope (GMRT) in Pune will use the supercomputer to explore Fast Radio Bursts (FRVs) and other astronomical phenomena while other supercompdeployed Inter University Accelerator Centre (IUAC) in Delhi will enhance research in fields like material science and atomic physics. The S. N. Bose Centre in Kolkate will drive advanced research in areas such as physics, cosmology and earth sciences. Additionally, PM Modi also inaugurated two High-Performance Computing (HPC) system, ‘Arka’ and ‘Arunika’ made for weather and climate research. These systems worth Rs 850 crore will be deployed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meterology (IITM) in Pune and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecase (NCMRWF) in Noida.” Read more: Times of India
“When Prime Minister Narendra Modi and United States President Joe Biden announced establishing a semiconductor fabrication plant in India focused on meeting defence and national security needs, two names stood out: Bharat Semi and 3rdiTech. From being incubated at the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi to securing a place at a prestigious accelerator at the University of California in Berkeley just four years ago, Bharat Semi, and its holding entity 3rdiTech, is an Indian start-up focused on designing chips, especially for military and defence purposes. Now, the firm, started by Vrinda Kapoor a biologist, Vinayak Dalmia, an economist and Mukul Sarkar, an academic, is going to be at the heart of designing chips and getting them manufactured at the country’s first fabrication plant focused on national security, of course with help from technology and equipment provided by the United States. Kapoor, the firm’s co-founder and chief executive, told The Indian Express over a phone call that they were first introduced to the US armed forces by the Indian government as part of the old Defence Trade and Technology Initiative (DTTI) in 2019. A year later, the firm got selected for an accelerator programme hosted at the University of California, Berkeley, which further opened doors to working with the United States’ armed forces.” Read more: Soumyarendra Barik, Indian Express
“India has been a leader in internet shutdowns, by a huge margin, for nearly a decade, according to data shared by digital rights watchdog Access Now. While some authoritarian regimes, such as those in China, North Korea, and Russia systematically censor, surveil, or limit the internet, India’s citizens have relatively free access. But India is unique among democratic countries for its frequent enforcement of blackouts. Between 2016 and 2023, India shut down the internet 771 times, Access Now’s data shows… Reasons for the blackouts in India have included the government’s attempts to control agitation surrounding the Citizenship Amendment Act, suppress the farmers’ protests, and curb cheating during exams, according to Software Freedom Law Center, India’s tracker on internet shutdowns. The majority of shutdowns in India have historically occurred in Jammu and Kashmir, a region at the center of a decades-long dispute between India, Pakistan, and China. In August 2019, it experienced 552 consecutive days of internet blackout, the world’s longest shutdown in history… Last year, the Indian government shut down the internet 116 times, Access Now’s data shows. Myanmar and Iran were a distant second and third, with 37 and 34 shutdowns, respectively.” Read more: Ananya Bhattacharya, Rest of World
Bonus -
“If the bee’s knees of Ahmedabad – politicians, bureaucrats, real estate tycoons, building magnates and allied government beneficiaries – are to be believed, the bid to host the 2036 Olympics is a done deal. Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar 2036 it is… The IOA or the Indian Olympic Association, the umbrella body for Olympic sports in India, is the only organisation through which any proposed bid for 2036 by India goes through to the IOC. At the moment, the IOA itself is in turmoil, its familiar habit of faction fighting over positions and tenures playing out. The latest ruckus that has spooked India’s Olympic pitch is related to the appointment of Raghuram Iyer as the IOA’s first professional (and salaried) CEO. His appointment in January 2024 sparked off a protest by 10 of 15 the IOA’s executive council members, who signed a letter declaring the CEO’s appointment “null and void” and named a parallel CEO. Iyer, it is being reported, is not allowed into the IOA’s office and has not been paid since his appointment… In the minds of the Gujarati establishment, however, there is zero doubt. Gujarat’s minimal contribution to excellence in sport or nurturing athletes or grassroots development is not an issue because the Olympics are being viewed through a very different lens: one trained on infrastructure, construction, and real estate… Outside of land acquisition in Gujarat and a pink-walled India House in Paris, there appears to be no cogent plan for a 2036 Olympic bid from India. Leave aside identifying an energetic city mayor or the charismatic head of a smart, switched-on, top-quality bidding team, Indian Olympic sport is still searching for the team itself.” Read more: Sharda Ugra, The India Forum
“As mentioned by Dr Ambedkar in his letter, which is preserved in the British Library, his first leg of travel, on his first foreign trip, was from Bombay on the ship that went by the name S.S. Sardegna. A ‘The Times of India’ article dated 16 June 1913 provides information that corroborates Dr Ambedkar’s letter… He would later describe his times at Columbia University as the very first time he experienced social equality, and speaking with the New York Times, he said, “The best friends I have had in my life were some of my classmates at Columbia and my great professors, John Dewey, James Shotwell, Edwin Seligman, and James Harvey Robinson.” The foreigners of different ethnicities whom he would have mingled with cared the least about his caste. For the first time in his life, he was tasting true freedom.” Read more: Nikhil Bagade, Forward Press
Watch/listen -
Understanding India's Pensions Disaster | Everything is Everything - a weekly podcast hosted by Amit Varma and Ajay Shah.
Chanakya Defense Dialogue | Chief of Army Staff General Upendra Dwivedi in conversation with Palki Sharma