• Understanding India’s coal mine methane landscape

“India is the second-largest coal producer and consumer globally, with production surpassing 1 billion tonnes in the fiscal year (FY) 2024-25, underscoring its dependence on coal for over half of its primary energy needs and more than 70% of electricity generation. Despite significant progress in renewable energy adoption, the consumption of coal is rising in the near term due to increasing energy demand even as its share in the energy mix is projected to decline… This expansion presents a major environmental challenge. Annual methane emissions from coal mining are projected to more than double from 2019 levels by the end of the decade, potentially exceeding 1.6 million tonnes of methane… Ember’s abatement assessment study provides a conservative approach for a gradual increase in capturing and utilising fugitive methane. It can potentially save up to $980 million USD by the end of the decade, by offsetting imported fossil gas. While a pilot project at the Moonidih underground mine in Jharia coalfield successfully demonstrated the technical feasibility of methane capture and utilisation, no commercial CMM mitigation projects have followed since. This is mainly because of a lack of clear policies, incentive structures and a regulatory framework mandating CMM abatement. Therefore, developing a national CMM roadmap with clear milestones is a key step towards effective mitigation.” Read more: Rajasekhar Modadugu, Ember

• Godrej launches India’s first multi-ion forklift battery

“Godrej Enterprises Group has introduced what it claims is India’s first multi-ion battery technology for electric forklifts through its Material Handling Equipment business. The launch comes as demand rises for energy-efficient and low-maintenance equipment across manufacturing, warehousing and logistics operations. The company said the new battery system is designed to lower the total cost of ownership by up to 25 per cent while improving equipment uptime and operational reliability. The batteries are engineered to last through the operational lifecycle of the forklift, reducing replacement requirements and associated downtime… Developed in partnership with an Indian deep-tech battery company, the battery platform delivers up to 5,000 life cycles, which the company stated is nearly 60 per cent higher than conventional lithium-ion alternatives. The battery is also designed to function in temperatures above 45°C, making it suitable for Indian industrial operating environments… Godrej said the technology has undergone more than 5,000 hours of field validation and is backed by a seven-year warranty. The company views the development as part of its broader strategy to strengthen supply-chain productivity and industrial automation capabilities through advanced engineering and digital integration.” Read more: Manufacturing Today

• Lithium imports rise tenfold in 8 years riding on EV boom

“India’s lithium imports have surged more than ten-fold in eight years, reflecting the rapid expansion of the electric vehicle (EV) market and rising demand for battery storage, even as domestic manufacturing capacity continues to lag behind consumption growth. According to data from the ministry of commerce and industry, lithium imports rose from Rs 3,532 crore in FY18 to Rs 37,624.6 crore during April-February FY26. Imports stood at Rs 25,458.6 crore in FY25, and have already climbed nearly 48% in the first 11 months of FY26, underscoring the sharp acceleration in demand for lithium-ion batteries… Industry executives say the import trajectory is likely to remain on an upward curve as India continues to push for accelerated electrification of transport and mobility. However, analysts caution that without a matching expansion in domestic battery manufacturing and critical mineral processing capacity, rising demand from the EV transition could deepen import dependence and keep the import bill elevated over the medium term… The delay in scaling up domestic production has kept India heavily dependent on imported lithium and battery materials, much of which flows through China-linked global supply chains. Industry players say demand creation has significantly outpaced supply-side readiness.” Read more: Nitin Kumar, Financial Express

• India is rapidly scaling up renewable energy. Now it needs to store it

“As India rapidly scales up its renewable energy capacity to meet its climate goals, a key challenge is emerging for its power system — electricity supply that is abundant in some hours but insufficient in others. This is because renewable power generation sources come with a fundamental limitation: They are intermittent… This creates a growing mismatch between when electricity is generated and when it is needed. This mismatch can stretch the grid and even threaten its stability if not managed properly. This challenge is particularly relevant for India, where renewable sources account for 53% (283 gigawatts) of the total installed power generation capacity of 532 GW… The deployment of energy storage systems in India has not kept pace with the rapid addition of renewable energy capacity. This widening gap is raising concerns over whether the grid will be able to efficiently absorb and manage the rising share of renewable power in the years ahead… At present, India has an installed BESS capacity of around 0.27 GW. PHS capacity stands at about 7.2 GW. There are plans, however, for a massive scale-up over the next decade… The project pipeline for both technologies is already expanding rapidly… On the battery storage side, 10,658.94 MW/28,739.32 MWh of BESS capacity is currently under construction. Projects totalling 22,347.15 MW/69,836.70 MWh are at the tendering stage.” Read more: Pratyush Deep, Indian Express

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Economy:

• The warning signs in India’s import bill

“Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to reduce spending on petroleum products, cut edible oil consumption, delay non-essential gold purchases by a year, avoid unnecessary foreign travel, and prioritise the purchase of locally made products… Mr Modi’s appeals have a singular focus — reducing the country’s foreign currency spending. This is an alarm bell that no government has sounded before, not even during the severe economic crisis of 1991, when the country’s foreign exchange reserves were less than $1 billion, barely enough to finance imports for a fortnight… The Prime Minister’s announcement seems to be in response to the delicate situation India is facing in its merchandise trade account. In 2025-25, India’s merchandise trade deficit reached a record $333 billion, an increase of over 17% as compared to the immediately preceding year… India’s imports in 2025-26 were driven by four product groups - gold and silver, edible oils, fertilisers, and electronic components. Imports of precious metals, valued at over $90 billion, accounted for about 12% of the import bill, marking them the third largest product group in the import basket after crude oil and electronics… Imports have brought bad news for agriculture. Spiralling fertiliser prices in international markets are not only causing the country to lose foreign currency due to its high import dependence, but they are also likely to raise the fertiliser subsidy bill.” Read more: Biswajit Dhar, The Hindu

• Why India’s central bank should not turn into a fiscal stabiliser for the government

“India’s central bank has quietly become a key pillar of macroeconomic stability. It is not just a monetary authority, but increasingly playing a role as a fiscal shock absorber. This deserves appreciation and caution. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has managed an extraordinarily hard decade. It navigated demonetisation, the IL&FS collapse, covid, global supply-chain disruptions, volatile oil prices, geopolitical shocks and shark capital-flow sings. India avoided a banking collapse, runaway inflation and sovereign instability. That is no small achievement. RBI has also been far more restrained than many advanced economy central banks in expanding its balance sheet… Nearly three-fourths of RBI’s assets are linked to forex and gold reserves. This makes India’s experience quite different from the post-2008 Western model of central banking. But also note the extraordinary rise in RBI’s surplus transfer to the Union government. In 2023-24, it transferred INR 2.11 trillion, which was 7.6% of the Centre’s overall revenue receipts. The transfer for 2025-26 may be even larger than last year’s record INR 2.69 trillion… This raises an uncomfortable question: has RBI started functioning as a quasi-fiscal stabiliser?… This slippage matters become monetary institutions derive credibility from restraint. Monetary policy needs insulation from political compulsion… The strength of a central bank lies not in its balance sheet or magnitude of profits, but in the credibility of its restraint.” Read more: Ajit Ranade, Mint

• Why is the Prime Minister advocating austerity?

“On May 10, during a speech in Secunderabad, Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid out a seven-fold set of suggestions for the Indian public to help the economy and the government’s finances weather the storm created by the war in West Asia… It is now well established that the war in West Asia has created a global energy crisis. One of the aspects of this crisis is that the prices of oil and gas have shot up… India imports 85-90% of its oil requirement… Oil alone makes up about 17% of India’s total goods import basket… The war has also led to an increase in the price of gold as investors flock to it as a ‘safe haven’ asset in times of uncertainty… A third major trend is the depreciation of the rupee. The currency breached the INR 96-to-a-dollar mark on May 15 before closing a little higher at INR 95.96. A year ago, the currency was trading at about INR 85 to a dollar… Foreign Institutional Investors have been pulling out large sums from Indian markets… Taken together, all this means that India’s Current Account Deficit (CAD) - the amount by which its imports of goods and services exceed exports - is set to grow to about 2.5% of the GDP in this financial year from 1.4% as recently as the quarter ended December 2025.” Read more: T. C. A. Sharad Raghavan, The Hindu

Foreign Policy & Security:

• India, US companies hold talks on nuclear energy cooperation

“Power minister Manohar Lal and Minister of State in the Department of Atomic Energy Jitendra Singh on Monday held discussions with a delegation of US nuclear industry executives on strengthening cooperation in the nuclear energy sector, including reducing financing costs, improving construction timelines, and supporting long-term energy security goals… According to a person familiar with the discussions, the meeting was attended by nuclear industry executives, including Daniel Seth Lipman, president of Westinghouse Electric Company; Seth Grae, president & CEO of Lightbridge Corporation; and Mehul Shah, founder and CEO of Clean Core Thorium Energy. The US-India Strategic Partnership Forum and Nuclear Energy Institute co-hosted the US nuclear industry delegation to India, led by Maria Korsnick, president and CEO of NEI, for four days starting Monday in New Delhi and Mumbai… During the visit, the delegation aims to identify new opportunities for collaboration between US nuclear companies and Indian industry as India looks to expand its nuclear power capacity.” Read more: Economic Times

• PM Modi skips questions from press; Norwegian PM Store says ‘different traditions’

“The Ministry of External Affairs defended India’s record on democracy on Monday (May 18 2026), for the second time during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s European tour, over the PM’s decision not to take questions from the press. During the joint press appearance with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, Mr. Modi was confronted by a Norwegian journalist who stood up and asked him to respond to media questions, as was the norm in the European country… Earlier in the day, Helle Lyng Svends, a correspondent for the Dagsavisen, stood up after the press statements made by Mr. Modi and Mr. Store in Oslo. “Prime Minister Modi, why don’t you take questions from the freest press in the world,” she said, then following him out of the room, adding, “Do you deserve the trust of our … [government]?”… Speaking to The Hindu, Mr. Store said he had to respect the wishes of other leaders from countries of “different traditions.” “All my Nordic colleagues have talked to journalists from different news [media] outlets, but I have to respect that India may have different traditions. That’s for [Indians] to resolve,” he said.” Read more: Suhasini Haidar, The Hindu

• The Trump administration’s view of the US–India relationship

“The Trump administration’s relationship with India is more interest-based and transactional than the US–India relationship under the Joe Biden administration, when the focus was more on shared democratic values… The most important political appointment by the Trump administration in relation to India and South Asia is that of Sergio Gor as US Ambassador to India and Special Envoy to South and Central Asia… Leader-level contact in mid-to-late 2025 was limited due to difficulties in the bilateral relationship – notably on trade, tariffs and the India–Pakistan conflict. Since Gor’s arrival in New Delhi in January 2026, high-level visits from the Trump administration to India have increased and the bilateral relationship has strengthened, reflected by calls between Modi and Trump in each month of 2026 so far… Despite continued and strong bipartisan policy consensus on India and the Quad in both the US House of Representatives and Senate, the main congressional challenge is that there is less priority, bandwidth and engagement from House representatives and senators on India compared to other geopolitical areas such as Iran, China and Russia–Ukraine… However, despite the strong working-level cooperation, the bilateral relationship must overcome the challenges presented by the Trump administration since 2025. The main challenge is trade, which has been a weaker area of cooperation compared to other areas such as defence.” Read more: Viraj Solanki, International Institute for Strategic Studies

• India may have to ‘bilaterally negotiate transit corridors with Iran,’ says Moody

“India and other oil-importing countries that are dependent on energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are likely to negotiate bilaterally to secure imports via coordinated transit corridors, Moody’s Ratings has estimated. The credit rating agency also predicted that a return to pre-war traffic volumes is unlikely this year… “We expect oil importers — particularly China, India, Japan and Korea — to negotiate passage bilaterally with Iran, potentially through coordinated transit corridors such as those reportedly emerging near Larak Island and through Omani territorial waters… A return to pre-conflict traffic volumes in 2026 is unlikely,” it said, as quoted by news agency PTI. Moody’s said even if safe passage in the Strait were to resume in the next six months, oil supply would remain constrained, with persistently higher and more volatile energy prices and broader knock-on effects… Moody’s, in its May Global Macro outlook, has also cut GDP growth estimates by 0.2-0.8 percentage points for several major economies, attributing it to higher energy prices… The report has also slashed India’s GDP growth estimate for 2026 by 0.8 percentage points to 6 per cent. “India is among the most exposed, given around 46 per cent of its crude oil imports come from the Middle East, its sensitivity to currency depreciation and pressure on its current account and fiscal management,” Moody’s said.” Read more: Indian Express

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People & Politics:

• CJI Says Some ‘Unemployed Youth’, Like ‘Parasites’, ‘Cockroaches’, Become ‘Media’, ‘Social Media’, ‘RTI Activists’

“While questioning the genuineness of the law degrees of some advocates who had approached the top court over senior designations, the chief justice, Justice Surya Kant lashed out at “several bogus advocates in Delhi”, as per Live Law… In the process, he also hit out at unemployed youth, comparing them with cockroaches, and suggesting they become media and social media activists critical of the system… CJI Surya Kant said he had been following comments being made on social media by the lawyers. He said that the Bar Council of India (BCI) was “absolutely in collusion” with the lawyers and so could not be expected to act… Going on to also attack some persons he characterised as “parasites” and “cockroaches,” insistent on “attacking the judiciary”, the chief justice asked lawyers to not join hands with them. He said: “There are already parasites of society who attack the system and you want to join hands with them? There are youngsters like cockroaches, who don’t get any employment and don’t have any place in profession. Some of them become media, some of them become social media, some of them become RTI activists, some of them become other activists, and they start attacking everyone…and you people file contempt petitions!” The apex court refused to entertain the lawyer’s application for senior designation.” Read more: The Wire

• Three reasons Modi’s patriotic appeal to Indians is not the answer to the Iran war crisis

“Prime Minister Narendra Modi has called on Indians to tighten their belts, particularly on fuel and gold consumption… Modi loves nothing better than appealing to the language of sacrifice, patriotism, and civilisational virtue as an asset to be deployed in solving problems… But there is a larger danger that India will once more fail to attend to the three risks inherent in these forms of appeal. The first risk is to assume that what we are witnessing is a temporary shock. For starters, the duration of the war is still uncertain. It is exerting immense pressure on the US economy as well. But in most scenarios, there is no quick resolution to the war… The challenge with the language of sacrifice is that it works, if at all, on short-term time horizons. Otherwise, it is a recipe for inducing more cynicism… We also misread the world economy. We assumed that there would always be capital sloshing around the world, and were caught off guard by the massive reallocation of capital induced by AI. Private domestic investment is finally rising, but only after a decade of stagnation. There are individual success stories in manufacturing, but our aggregate share in global manufacturing has barely moved… It is a time to double down on the fundamentals of the economy, in a framework that is credible and concrete. This is the only way to avoid a possible confidence doom loop in the Indian economy… One of the secondary effects of this war, and the inflation it creates, will be political and social churn across the world. Just like we were underestimating the vulnerability of our economy, we may also be underestimating the social churn about to follow. The age of cumulative uncertainty will require, not patriotic exhortation, but sophisticated statecraft. Right now, patriotism is a substitute for statecraft.” Read more: Pratap Bhanu Mehta, Indian Express

• U.S. Set to Drop Charges Against Indian Billionaire Accused of Fraud

“When the Justice Department indicted India’s richest man in the final weeks of the Biden administration, prosecutors described an “elaborate” bribery scheme involving “corruption and fraud at the expense of U.S. investors.” Now, according to several people with knowledge of the case, the Justice Department is planning to drop the charges altogether. The reversal came after the Indian billionaire, Gautam Adani, hired a new legal team led by Robert J. Giuffra Jr., one of President Trump’s personal lawyers and the co-chairman of the prominent firm Sullivan & Cromwell. The reversal came after the Indian billionaire, Gautam Adani, hired a new legal team led by Robert J. Giuffra Jr., one of President Trump’s personal lawyers and the co-chairman of the prominent firm Sullivan & Cromwell… Another slide also made an unusual offer: If prosecutors dropped the charges, Mr. Adani would be willing to invest $10 billion in the American economy and create 15,000 jobs, echoing a pledge he had made in the wake of Mr. Trump’s election… The proposal — which Mr. Trump could have held up as a political and economic win — underscores the highly transactional approach to justice in Mr. Trump’s second term… Even if the criminal charges against Mr. Adani are dismissed, he is still expected to incur financial penalties, the people with knowledge of the case said.” Read more: Nicole Hong, Ben Protess, William K. Rashbaum, and Devlin Barrett, New York Times

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Tech:

• India as a Democratic Tech Power in the Liberal International Order

“Recent years have seen India invest in tech diplomacy—pursuing new international partnerships, convening global dialogues and information-sharing mechanisms, sharing its digital public infrastructure model with Global South countries, and investing in capacity-building and technical assistance programs… Unlike its mostly defensive past stances on trade or climate negotiations, India’s approach to technology is proactive, seeking a leading role… To understand how India could shape the emerging global technology order, it is imperative to consider its domestic experience governing technological change, which has been markedly shaped by its democratic trajectory since 1947… Yet despite questions about whether Indian democracy is backsliding, stagnating, or progressing, its regulatory record suggests that, in technology at least, India’s approach remains much closer to that of its democratic peers than to China, Russia, or other autocracies… Although several of India’s domestic tech governance choices were developed democratically, they were not made in a vacuum, nor are they locked into the country’s foreign policy… In this turbulent environment, marked by the global order’s uncertain transition and the leadership vacuum left by the United States, India occupies a unique position. It is the only rising democracy with both the strategic interest and the material capability to shape global technology norms at scale.” Read more: Constantino Xavier, Council on Foreign Relations

Bonus:

• The honey collectors who risk their lives in tiger country

“Each year, men enter the Sundarbans—a nearly 4,000-square-mile mangrove forest stretching across southwestern Bangladesh and southeastern India—to collect wild honey, one of the region’s most lucrative and dangerous livelihoods. The honey collectors, known as Mawalis, travel deep into the forest during April, May, and June, when the forest authorities issue a limited number of permits. In those three months, these bioresource collectors can earn as much as they do during the rest of the year through farming, fishing, or mud crab collecting. But the work carries extreme risk. The Sundarbans are home to Bengal tigers, and more than 50 people are attacked each year. Few survive to tell the story. Climate change has made the work even more precarious. Rising seas, stronger storms, and repeated flooding are reshaping life in the Sundarbans, forcing many families to move again and again. Yet even as the landscape becomes less stable, local communities remain economically dependent on the mangroves and waterways, bringing people and wildlife into closer contact.” Read more: Mark Rammers, Atmos.Earth

Chart of the Week:

How extreme heat has changed across India over the past four decades

Source: How Extreme Heat is Impacting India (2025), Council on Energy, Environment and Water

Watch/Listen:

• The Great Indian Mango Crisis! | Investigative documentary on the ground reality of the Alphonso mango business | Stories that Matter

• Ruchir Sharma on Why India Seems to Be on the Wrong Side of the AI Trade | Ruchir Sharma in conversation with Haslinda Amin | Bloomberg Television

• Estimating Coal Demand in India: Why realism matters

“Achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 demands maintaining a steady-state path of declining emissions intensity. Sectoral growth will both depend on and increase electricity demand, which is expected to go up about 15 times by 2070, while GDP might grow about 17 times during the same period, according to our macroeconomic model. Such a rise in electricity demand would require continued use of coal in the generation mix, particularly in the absence of storage facilities and the concomitant infrastructure to support a renewables-led sectoral growth of the Indian economy… A realistic assessment of coal demand is crucial to assess how far India’s present policies and business practices are conducive to a rapid energy transition… The Ashoka Centre for a People-centric Energy Transition (ACPET) has developed a framework that estimates India’s thermal coal demand until 2070 based on the causal relationships between GDP growth, sectoral electricity demand, and the resultant demand for coal… Based on the above framework and assumptions, it can be observed that thermal coal demand peaks at about 1680 MT only around 2060, even with very ambitious assumptions about the progress of the renewable energy sector… The CEA has estimated coal demand in two documents. The first is the National Electricity Plan (NEP) for 2022-2032. The second is the cost minimization report (CMR), which covers the period from 2023-30. Both show no peak in coal demand for thermal power plants during this period.” Read more: Anvesha Adhikari, Navya, Anjali Goyal, Anandajit Goswami and Rakesh Kacker, Money Control

• States hold the key to India’s energy transition

“Amid the disruptions caused by the conflict in West Asia and the accompanying risk that climate action will be pushed down the global agenda, India has reaffirmed its commitment to climate goals by updating its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). In March 2026, the Union Cabinet approved NDC 3.0 for submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the 2031–2035 period… Achieving these goals will require every Indian state to play a role, as most power procurement decisions are made at the state level… India achieved the milestone of 50% non-fossil fuel-based installed capacity in October 2025, five years ahead of schedule. This progress was driven largely by Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka, which together account for more than 60% of the total non-fossil fuel installed capacity as of February 2026… The Indian States’ Electricity Transition (SET) 2026 report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) and Ember highlights that while states have advanced on multiple fronts, the pace and depth of their progress vary significantly across several parameters… States like Bihar, Kerala, Odisha, Telangana, and Uttar Pradesh are yet to accelerate renewable capacity deployment. Encouragingly, though, they have begun adding energy storage and preparing their grids for higher renewable penetration.” Read more: Tanya Rana and Ruchita Shah, Mongabay

• Evaluating India’s Energy Ambitions: Evidence from Electricity Generation Project-Level Data

“India's electricity demand has been growing rapidly, at 9% per annum since 2021. Meeting this demand by 2030 would require around 777 GW of installed capacity, as estimated by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA)… A study by CEEW (2025) finds that meeting this target would require adding around 56 GW of non-fossil capacity every year between 2025 and 2030, failing which India would need an additional 10 GW of coal-based capacity to meet future demand… However, the next phase of the transition is likely to be more complex. India is now facing new challenges regarding grid integration and transmission infrastructure, leading to delays in commissioning projects and curtailment of operational projects… In this backdrop, our paper Evaluating India's Energy Ambitions: Evidence from Electricity Generation Project-Level Data studies how electricity generation projects evolve from announcement to completion. Using project-level data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) CapEx database, we analyse 8,540 projects announced between January 1957 and December 2024 to understand how project size, cost, ownership, energy technology and location influence project timelines… We find a significant divergence between projects announced and completed: of the total announced conventional (CE) and renewable (RE) capacity, only 15% and 9% have been completed, respectively… If the current completion trends continue, total installed capacity would fall short of the 777 GW target by around 56 GW for CE and 45 GW for RE. Similarly, for the 500 GW non-fossil target, the projected shortfall is around 77 GW. It is important to note that our analysis does not include new projects that may be announced after 2024.” Read more: Upasa Borah, Akshay Jaitly and Renuka Sane, The Leap Blog

• Why India will write the next chapter of the global energy story

“For the past 25 years, energy analysts, investors, planners, and policymakers have been fixated on China… But for the next quarter century, it is India’s energy decisions that will most likely be most impactful for the world economy… What makes India the most interesting energy story of the coming decades is not the inevitability and relevance of its size; it is the uncertainty of where it lands and which direction it will choose… For all that is said about China being the world’s largest oil and natural gas importer, it is also among the Top 5 producers of oil and gas. Because India has had very limited success in increasing its hydrocarbon production, it depends more on imports… Furthermore, India has far greater cooling and air conditioning needs than China, driven by its climate and its rapidly urbanising population. It has less heavy manufacturing. As such, its energy demands will skew more residential and less industrial, which changes load profiles, grid design, price expectations, and the consequences of grid failures or energy shortages… India today consumes only about 35% of the global average per-capita primary energy. That is not a sign of efficiency but a measure of unmet demand... The question is not whether India will grow. The question is what kind of energy system it builds as it does. The choices made over the next five years on grid infrastructure, industrial policy, clean technology deployment, and carbon pricing will shape not just India’s future but the trajectory of global emissions for decades.” Read more: Kaushik Deb and Michael Webber, Fortune

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Economy:

• How Modi Is Ditching Indian Protectionism in Favor of Free Trade

“India this week signed the latest in what’s been a run of rapid-fire free trade agreements. The deal, with New Zealand, is far from the South Asian country’s largest, but like others over the past year it marked a swift conclusion to what had been a drawn-out process… This all amounts to a striking reversal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s earlier turn toward protectionism, and a resumption of what had been a long-term trend of declining tariffs… But the shift also reflects a deeper realization for India: There is no durable alternative to export-led growth. Modi’s original protectionist pivot rested on prioritizing domestic demand and economic self-reliance over exports… The bet was that higher trade barriers also would lure global firms to relocate production to India. That template now is being cast aside… Between 2017 and 2020, India’s average tariff rate rose from roughly 13% to roughly 18%. Modi’s protectionist tilt included an increase in quality control orders (QCOs), which effectively served as non-tariff barriers aimed at low-cost imports, primarily from China… But India’s domestic demand, although large in absolute terms, isn’t deep enough to sustain the high growth needed to match the ambition of achieving developed-nation status by 2047… The numbers tell the story: Manufacturing’s share of India GDP has slipped from 16% to 13% in the last decade and job creation remains Modi’s Achilles heel. High tariffs also hurt India’s exports, which are import intensive — in other words, they depend on intermediate items made elsewhere.” Read more: Chetna Kumar, Bloomberg

• Govt hikes import duty on gold, silver to 15% amid forex concerns

“Days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to defer gold purchases for a year as part of a broader national effort to conserve foreign exchange, the government on Wednesday sharply increased import duty on precious metals amid concerns over the external sector and the impact of the West Asia crisis on India’s import bill. A Finance Ministry notification said import duty on gold and silver has been increased to 15 per cent from 6 per cent, while duty on platinum has been raised to 15.4 per cent from 6.4 per cent… “This has been done as a policy measure aimed at safeguarding macroeconomic stability, conserving foreign exchange, and moderating non-essential imports during a period of heightened global uncertainty arising from the ongoing West Asia crisis,” an official said… The government has simultaneously tightened the concessional import route available under the India-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), raising the duty on gold imported under the tariff rate quota to 14 per cent from 5 per cent… Economists said the higher tariffs could moderate gold demand and offer some relief to the CAD, though part of the gains may be offset by smuggling. Chief Economist at CareEdge Rajani Sinha said a cumulative 9 percentage point increase in duty could reduce gold demand by 50-60 tonnes annually, lowering imports worth $6-9 billion at current international prices.” Read more: Shishir Sinha, The Hindu Businessline

• Indian shares post worst drop in six weeks; $115 bln wiped out as Mideast hopes fade

“Indian stocks tanked on Tuesday, wiping off about $115 billion from the market value of firms listed on the National Stock Exchange, as fading hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal worsened the outlook for Asia's third-largest economy… The rupee, Asia’s worst-performing ⁠currency in 2026 so far, fell to a record low as crude hovered near $107 per barrel and outflows continued ​unabated, hammering stocks across sectors. “The pressure on equities is now being amplified by a macro ‘triple hit’ of higher crude prices, ​rupee slipping to record low and continued aggressive foreign outflows,” said Hariprasad K, founder of Livelong Wealth… India, the world’s ​third-largest oil importer and consumer, meets more than 90% of its crude oil needs and about half of its ​natural gas demand through imports. The country has yet to raise prices of fuels used by the public, but the oil minister ‌said on ⁠Tuesday the government would at some stage need to assess how long state-run refiners can sustain losses from selling fuels below market prices… Shares of Indian IT firms fell 3.7% to a ​three‑year low over ⁠concerns of AI disrupting their traditional business models, and ahead of U.S. inflation data that could revive rate‑hike concerns. All 16 major sectors declined, while small-caps and mid-caps dropped 3.2% and 2.5%, respectively.” Read more: Bharath Rajeswaran, Reuters

• Market Access Challenges for India in its FTA with EU

“Within a week in early 2026, the government of India performed a veritable miracle by agreeing to bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) with the two largest economies, the United States and the European Union (EU)… However, as of now, the two FTAs are headed in different directions. The EU-India FTA is following the official procedures that are laid down for the 27-member bloc. The draft chapters of the FTA have been published in keeping with the transparency policy of the European Commission (EC)… At the conclusion of the EU-India FTA negotiations, the most protracted ever for a bilateral trade deal, both governments are optimistic about the expected benefits… India’s hopes of increasing its merchandise exports to one of its largest trade partners, hinges on the EU’s decision to eliminate its tariffs on 99% of its exports terms of trade value. Of India’s current exports to the EU, 90.7% by value (or 70.4% of tariff lines at the 6-digit level) would attract no import duties once the FTA comes into effect… The EU-India FTA is the first bilateral trade agreement negotiated by India that not only recognises Indian traditional medicine (ITM) services as health and wellness-related services but also facilitates trade in such services… Though the Government of India is optimistic about its gains from this FTA, the realisation of expected benefits may not be as straightforward as it appears, given that the EU is an extensive user of regulatory standards, or NTMs… Compliance with the EU’s complex regulatory standards will be critical for Indian businesses seeking to realise the expected gains from this FTA.” Read more: Biswajit Dhar, The India Forum

Foreign Policy & Security:

• The Unexplained Op Sindoor Ceasefire that Gave Pakistan a Diplomatic Escape

“With various versions still in play, the precise circumstances remain murky but the fact is clear that India and Pakistan agreed on a ceasefire at around noon on May 10 last year. There is, however, a major unanswered question: Just why did India, by its own account, “accede to the request of Pakistan” for a ceasefire?… The premature ceasefire actually enabled Pakistan to wriggle out of a sticky spot that the escalation of hostilities had created and ride on US shoulders towards diplomatic rehabilitation. As a result, the terrible terrorist act at Pahalgam lost its resonance and India’s campaign to isolate Pakistan failed. In short, India was unable to convert its claimed military victory into a durable strategic reality… So, the question is, yes, India wiped out nine terrorist camps across Pakistan. But what did its action achieve with regard to the state sponsorship of terrorism? And thus brings back the issue of whether India agreed to the ceasefire prematurely. The issue becomes even more pertinent given the fact that Pakistan was able to snatch diplomatic victory from the jaws of military defeat thereafter… This is why it is important to understand the role of the United States here and to ask whether or not India undertook the ceasefire on account of American pressure. The bald fact is that the announcement of the ceasefire was made first in the US, by president Trump through a Truth Social post and not by any spokesman in New Delhi or Rawalpindi… The issue here is not the need for a ceasefire to prevent the conflict between two nuclear armed countries from escalating. But the judgment as to the extent of punishment that Pakistan needed in order to be deterred, at least for a while. Here, the Indian decision may have fallen short of the mark.” Read more: Manoj Joshi, The Wire

• Advancing India-South Korea defence innovation ties

“Since establishing diplomatic relations in 1973, India and South Korea have maintained defense ties. .Their first formal agreement, the 2005 MoU on Defense Industry and Logistics, promoted cooperation in production, research and development, and procurement… On April 20, 2026, at the India-South Korea Summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Lee Jae Myung, a new defense innovation platform called the Korea-India Defense Accelerator (KIND-X) was announced. As part of the Joint Strategic Vision, KIND-X aims to connect businesses, incubators, investors, defense start-ups, and universities from both sides… What can KIND-X unlock? KIND-X can emerge as the “defense innovation bridge”, expanding defense R&D, innovation, co-development and co-production, involving startups, investors, universities, academia, and think tanks, essentially creating a joint defense innovation and industrial ecosystem from both countries…. It may facilitate access to testing facilities through universities and laboratories in both countries, promote joint certification and standardisation processes, and support accelerator and incubator programmes connecting investors and innovators from both sides… The success of KIND-X will depend on leveraging existing co-production ventures such as the K9 Vajra-T howitzers by L&T and Hanwha Aerospace to create templates for future defense projects… The onus is now upon both defense ministries to curate tangible deliverables under KIND-X, clarifying its steering template, funding mechanisms and areas of joint innovation.” Read more: Tejas Bharadwaj and Mugdha Satpute, The Hindu

• An Indian Perspective: Bridging Continents Through IMEC

“The India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) was unveiled at the G20 Summit in September 2023 by a coalition including India, the European Union, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Two years hence, 2025 exemplified geopolitical tensions, shifting alliances, protectionist trade realignments, supply chain shocks, and Red Sea disruptions that spiked Asia–Europe shipping costs by five times early in the year… Yet, amid ongoing conflicts, IMEC continues to be at the heart of current debates on robust alternatives to traditional economic corridors and strategic partnerships… Despite geopolitical turbulence, the economic logic of India–Middle East–Europe convergence remains. The 16th India-EU Summit in January 2026, held alongside the Republic Day visit of EU leaders, concluded FTA negotiations and endorsed a new strategic agenda, while the EU connectivity policy under Global Gateway aligns with IMEC’s broader goals of resilient trade and supply-chain diversification… Yet, Middle East instabilities have cast doubts on IMEC’s viability. Furthermore, while President Trump initially emphasised IMEC’s importance as a partnership against unfair practices in trade and export control in February 2025, his America First Trade Policy, and subsequent tariff strategies through broad unilateral instruments suggest diverging priorities… The rollout of IMEC is shaped by the absence of a unified Indo–Mediterranean strategy and the diverse priorities of its stakeholders. While IMEC marks a significant step toward deeper India–Mediterranean linkages, both New Delhi and Brussels are yet to elevate it into a fully codified regional vision.” Read more: Abhishek Agarwal, Centre for Social and Economic Progress

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People & Politics:

• India’s Narendra Modi celebrates a return to dominance

“After Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party won a historic landslide victory in the opposition stronghold of West Bengal, India’s prime minister donned a traditional Bengali dhoti trouser cloth for his victory speech at the BJP’s New Delhi headquarters… Just two years after the shock loss of the BJP’s majority in India’s national parliament, Modi and his party are as dominant as ever. As well as winning West Bengal, the biggest prize in this year’s state elections, the BJP increased its majority in the north-eastern state of Assam and won joint control with allies of the territory of Puducherry… The BJP and its allies now control states and territories containing more than 70 per cent of India’s population — a high-water mark comparable to that achieved by the Indian National Congress party with Indira Gandhi as prime minister in the 1970s. Key to Modi’s revival, analysts say, is a relentless focus on grassroots campaigning, increased use of welfare handouts and determination to stay close to voter concerns… Opposition parties have cried foul, saying the deletion of more than 9mn voters from West Bengal’s electoral rolls, ostensibly to remove duplicate entries and illegal residents, tainted the result… The BJP also took advantage of opposition parties accused of complacency and a lack of unity. Parliamentary opposition leader Rahul Gandhi, a grandson of Indira, publicly accused Banerjee on the eve of the vote of not running a clean government, an allegation the BJP took up with glee.” Read more: Andres Schipani and Michael Stott, Financial Times

• India’s aspiring doctors heartbroken by exam paper leak

“For the past two years, Manas Sharma’s life revolved around one goal - cracking the tough exam that would get him admission to a medical college in India so he could become a doctor. But the exam - the National Eligibility Entrance Test (Undergraduate), known as NEET-UG - has been at the centre of a controversy this year following allegations that the question paper was leaked. On Tuesday, the federal government’s National Testing Agency (NTA), which conducts the exam, cancelled the test that took place on 3 May because of an investigation into the allegations. The agency also said that a new date for a retest would be announced next week… Nearly 2.28 million candidates sat the exam on 3 May at more than 5,000 centres across India. The NTA's announcement has left most of them devastated… “Becoming a doctor has always been the plan for me,” says Sumi (who goes only by her first name), a 20-year-old aspirant from the northeastern state of Assam. When she heard that the exam was cancelled, her first thought was that it could not be true… The cancellation has renewed scrutiny of India’s examination system, which has faced repeated allegations of leaks and irregularities in recent years. The NEET itself faced a major controversy in 2024 after allegations of paper leaks, fraud and irregularities. The claims triggered nationwide protests after thousands of candidates received unusually high scores.” Read more: Abhishek Day and Nikita Yadav, BBC

• Ways of seeing

“‘A person will die just furnishing proof of their existence through documents; in death, we will have to furnish documents too.’ This is what an exasperated Hindu woman we met in the slums of Titagarh, West Bengal, had to say about the onerous demands of the Special Intensive Revision of the electoral rolls. Her daughters’ names had been struck off the rolls and she was now scrambling to assemble documents to ‘prove’ their existence… The election is over. The verdict is in and West Bengal, along with Tamil Nadu and Kerala, is ushering in a new government. But the dark cloud of the SIR will continue to loom large. Did the SIR with its deletions and active disenfranchisement of over 27 lakh voters propel the Bharatiya Janata Party to power in West Bengal? This is the question that is dominating the political debate. To understand the full effects — and dangers — of the SIR, we must look beyond electoral math. Its real impact and its most enduring consequence lie in the countless stories of State harassment: the endless chase for documents to ‘prove’ one’s identity; the callousness of algorithmic decisions; and the sharply differentiated ways in which this burden of proving identity are experienced across religious lines — differences that were unmistakable in the voices we heard during our travels… The true danger of the SIR lies in this systematic Othering of fellow citizens. It must be recognised for what it is — a tool through which the seeds of deep exclusion are sown using routine bureaucratic practices that in the eyes of the majority citizens carry within them a veneer of legitimacy.” Read more: Yamini Aiyar, The Telegraph

• 111 killed, 72 injured as storm, heavy rain batter Uttar Pradesh; relief work underway

“At least 111 people were killed and 72 injured after a strong storm and heavy rain pounded several districts of Uttar Pradesh, uprooting trees and damaging houses, an official statement said on Thursday. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath took cognisance of the loss of lives and damage caused by the unseasonal rain, thunderstorms and lightning on Wednesday and directed officials to ensure relief reaches the affected families within 24 hours. In a statement, the Relief Commissioner's office said, "Due to bad weather on May 13, including storms, rain, hailstorm and lightning, reports of 111 deaths were received from 26 districts. 72 persons were injured, 170 livestock losses and damage to 227 houses have been reported in the state”… According to a list issued by the Prayagraj district administration, till morning, 17 deaths were reported due to the storm and rain. As reports pour in from other areas, the district administration said that a total of 24 deaths have come to the fore in Wednesday's incidents. In Bhadohi, district administration sources said at least 16 people died in storm-related incidents… Additional District Magistrate (Finance and Revenue) Dushyant Kumar said reports regarding human and livestock losses have been sought from local officials, and financial assistance will be provided as per government rules.” Read more: Deccan Herald

Tech:

• The Unresolved Challenges in U.S.–India Semiconductor Cooperation

“The U.S.–India semiconductor cooperation story is well-stocked with top-level strategic intent. What remains unresolved, however, are some underlying challenges that will determine whether the cooperation actually functions. Three such friction points stand out. First, the state of export control regimes on both sides. Second, the absence of a clearly articulated economic case for U.S.–India semiconductor cooperation. Third, a newly articulated anxiety on the U.S. side about India becoming a China-like strategic risk… The U.S. export control regime is not without its own complexities and is also facing new challenges. For example, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) is under-resourced and appears to be directing significant capacity towards enforcement in response to broader geopolitical pressures… A second friction point, perhaps less visible but more consequential, concerns the economic logic underpinning U.S.–India semiconductor cooperation… The India Semiconductor Mission’s (ISM) first phase provided a commercial rationale for U.S. firms to treat India as an attractive investment destination. But as these firms weigh further expansion, the final contours of a successor incentive scheme will determine their top-up amounts and next tranches of investment, and those contours remain unsettled… Finally, a concern that has surfaced with some regularity in recent U.S.–India discussions, including semiconductor-focused ones, is the notion that India could eventually mirror China’s trajectory as a technology-acquiring, supply chain-dominating strategic competitor.” Read more: Shruti Mittal, Carnegie India

• Motorola’s India lawsuit could make platforms police speech faster

“Motorola wants social media platforms to take down “defamatory” reviews of its devices in India. But the way it’s doing this has digital rights activists alarmed. In March, Motorola’s India arm sued major companies and their platforms — Google, Meta, X, YouTube, Instagram, Facebook, and Threads— over more than 360 posts by users that allegedly portray its devices as unsafe… What sets this case apart is Motorola’s decision to name platforms as co-defendants rather than pursuing standard requests to take down specific posts… “Motorola could have filed takedown requests with the social media platforms. … Instead, it bypassed that and chose to name them as co-defendants,” said Jayshree Bajoria, Asia associate director at watchdog Human Rights Watch… On April 17, an Indian court issued a temporary injunction ordering the removal of all existing defamatory content about Motorola — including negative campaigns, abusive remarks, and boycott campaigns — until the next hearing in June… Saurabh Gupta, a content creator who has made videos on Motorola’s durability and service, called out the company in a post on X, saying its legal action was a “direct killing” of freedom of speech… Legal experts are particularly concerned about the inclusion of a “John Doe” provision in the complaint, which allows action against unidentified future creators.” Read more: Ananya Bhattacharya, Rest of World

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Chart of the Week:

FPI outflows from domestic markets surpass 2025 annual record highs (in $ billion)

Source: National Securities Depository via Reuters

Bonus:

• India’s DNA map uncovers millions of missing genetic variants

“A genetic atlas emerging from India’s most extensive genomic sequencing exercise has revealed vast diversity in the population, with nearly 130 million genetic variants, almost a third of which have not been reported previously. The GenomeIndia project analysed the whole genomes of 9,768 healthy people from 83 populations, uncovering 44 million variants absent from global scientific databases, including gnomAD, 1000 Genomes Project and GenomeAsia… Funded by India’s Department of Biotechnology through a consortium of 20 research institutions, the map opens up a path for investigations into human ancestry, disease genetics, pharmacogenetics and precision medicine across South Asia. Aiming to scale to a million genomes and disease-specific cohorts, the project seeks to fill gaps in global databases skewed toward populations of European descent… The atlas captures many rare variants from the DNA of specific communities, reflecting a long history of migration, isolation, and marriage within a group (endogamy), says Kumarasamy Thangaraj, a population geneticist and joint national coordinator of the exercise… The dataset flags other such loss-of-function (LoF) variants linked to metabolic disorders — genetic alterations that inactivate or reduce a gene’s functional capacity — such as in LPA and CD36, both central to lipid metabolism and cardiovascular risk. In all, it reports 15,849 high-confidence LoF variants across more than 7,000 genes, some of which heighten disease risk, while others may be neutral or even protective.” Read more: Sahana Ghosh, Nature

Watch/listen:

• India’s 2026 Elections Explained | Yamini Aiyar and Neelanjan Sircar in conversation with Milan Vaishnav | Grand Tamasha | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

• What does Trump’s China visit mean for India and the world? | Nirupama Rao in conversation with Karan Thapar | The Wire

• Electrification can slash 1.2 bn tonne CO2

“India’s industrial sector could cut 51% of its carbon emissions, reduce energy consumption by over 22% and prevent nearly 7,94,000 pre-mature deaths every year by shifting to electrified heat, according to a new study, positioning clean electricity as a cost-effective shift against volatile global fuel markets. The findings come at a time when rising global oil and gas prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, are increasing cost pressures for Indian manufacturers dependent on imported fuels… The scale of this opportunity is significant. Industry, India’s largest energy consumer accounts for nearly 47% of total final energy use, with over 40% met by coal and another 27% by petroleum and natural gas, leaving the sector highly exposed to global price shocks and import dependence… The report also highlights a strong economic case. “Electrifying industrial heat is already cheaper than producing heat with biomass, natural gas, or petroleum across all temperatures needed by industry,” it said, adding that electrified heat is cheaper than coal in three our of five temperature ranges, covering 55% of industrial heat demand.” Read more: Saurav Anand, Financial Express

• India Is Blocking a Cheap Way to Beat the Heat Wave

“Keeping 1.4 billion people cool in 47 degree Celsius (116 degree Fahrenheit) heat was never going to be easy. In India, it’s about to get a whole lot harder. A heat wave that’s baking the subcontinent sent electricity demand soaring last week, as tens of millions of air conditioners cranked up to take the edge off intolerable temperatures… As recently as 2006, there were just two million AC units in the entire country. Only 10% of homes have one installed at present. With incomes rising and temperatures soaring, that’s changing fast. Last year, 15.4 million were sold, and volumes will almost double to 28 million by 2030… To give you a sense of the scale of that: Accommodating the rise of Indian air conditioners over the coming decade will require twice as much generation capacity as will be needed for new US data centers. If this sounds daunting, there’s good news: A relatively simple tweak to AC design could slash those numbers, while also lowering costs for Indian households and reducing the impact of climate-warming gases. The hitch? Right now, it’s effectively outlawed… Propane — the same stuff you find in a gas bottle for domestic heaters, stoves or barbecues — can also be used as an AC refrigerant, where it’s known as R290. It’s a far less damaging greenhouse gas, equivalent to just three tons of CO2, and is drastically cheaper to buy… Why, then, isn’t it more widely used? Propane is highly flammable, and standards in India have forced it to be used in such small quantities that it can’t counter the intense heat of the South Asian summer… The claimed safety risks of propane in AC, meanwhile, are largely theoretical. With more than 10 million R290 units already installed, we’re yet to see cases of fire outbreaks. One 2024 study estimated that you’d get just one every three years from a fleet of 10 billion R290 air conditioners — five times more than all the AC units on the planet right now.” Read more: David Fickling, Bloomberg

• India should build strategic buffers for energy shock: CEA Nageswaran

“Chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran on Saturday said India needs to create strategic buffers in the face of the “most difficult” energy shock that the country is facing amid the West Asia crisis. Nageswaran also said that the rising prices of fertiliser and petroleum products globally due to the crisis will make it challenging to achieve the 4.3 per cent fiscal deficit target for the current fiscal, while below normal monsoon and pass-through of higher energy prices could lead to “potential inflation spike”… Speaking at the ICPP Growth Conference organized by the Ashoka University, Nageswaran said the current account deficit (CAD) in the current fiscal could rise to over 2 per cent of GDP, from less than 1 per cent in FY’26… “And we also need to use this occasion to think about other areas where we are vulnerable in terms of import dependence, nickel, tin, and copper. We need to build strategic buffers if we have to make a shot at manufacturing and becoming indispensable,” Nageswaran said.” Read more: Business Standard

• The fading climate shields

“In Himachal Pradesh, the influence of traditional beliefs, religion and cultural practices continues to shape the conservation of forest land. Dev Vans, or sacred groves, are forest patches revered as the domain of local deities (devtas). Village customs strictly prohibit tree-felling, leaf collection, and the entry of alcohol or meat within its boundaries… For generations, in Himachal Pradesh, it was faith, not legislation, that determined which forests would remain untouched… The sacred groves continue to remain at the centre of community life, where rituals and festivals reinforce connections between people and nature, particularly in Himachal’s remote and elevated zones… These belief-based practices have also helped preserve forest patches across generations, outside of formal conservation efforts. Cultural researcher Rahul Bhushan, who studies Himalayan communities, says sacred groves reflect an earlier worldview where forests were looked at as living, inhabited spaces rather than unclaimed land… This restraint, he contends, operated as an unwritten environmental governance system. “It was not conservation by modern definition, but it worked,” he says. Bhushan says these systems are weakening as tourism and migration enter mountain communities… As road networks expand and tourism enters previously isolated areas, land is more often viewed through the lens of economic opportunities.” Read more: Amir Bin Ragi, Mongabay India

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Economy:

• Why NITI Aayog and EAC-PM should produce reports on where the Indian economy is headed

“Should the government’s think tank and the Prime Minister’s advisory body also follow this principle of providing guidance on the Indian economy’s growth and inflation trajectory?… But more analyses and forecasts on how the Indian economy is going to fare can surely be of immense help. Not only markets, but even the government’s policymakers would benefit from such early assessments. At present, such guidance comes principally from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the annual Economic Survey from the Union finance ministry. The RBI’s assessment is more frequent, coming every two months along with the monetary policy reviews. The annual Economic Survey’s outlook for the economy is comprehensive but it can quickly become outdated, as recent developments show. For instance, the Economic Survey for 2025-26 was presented on January 29, almost a month before the war began in West Asia. It had, therefore, forecast an economic growth rate of 6.8 to 7.2 per cent for the Indian economy in 2026-27, which is not what anyone is expecting now… There is no reason for the EAC-PM or the NITI Aayog not to issue a quarterly or a half-yearly report on the state of the Indian economy and the measures they believe the government should consider. In the past, EAC-PM did produce such reviews of the Indian economy, igniting a healthy debate over how the economy should be managed. In its earlier avatar as the Planning Commission, NITI Aayog was also engaged in producing such reviews to supplement the work done by the RBI or the finance ministry..” Read more: A. K. Bhattacharya, ThePrint

• India’s RBI Mulls New Move Using Foreign Bonds to Prop Up Rupee

“India’s central bank is weighing a plan for state lenders to sell foreign-currency bonds, mulling a tool last used nearly three decades ago to draw capital inflows and shore up the beleaguered rupee, according to people familiar with the matter. Reserve Bank of India officials discussed a proposal that would see lenders issue foreign-currency bonds, potentially with five-year maturities, the people said, asking not to be named as the talks are private. Discussions are preliminary and no decision has been made, they said… The central bank also considered offering foreign-exchange swaps to participating lenders to hedge currency risk, allowing them to offer more attractive yields to investors, the people said… An RBI spokesperson didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking comment on the matter. State-owned lenders report to the finance ministry, which often coordinates with the central bank on policies and measures to stabilize the currency… The rupee has weakened close to 6% against the dollar this year, the worst performance in Asia. While anti-speculative measures rolled out by the central bank in March and April briefly helped the currency, pressure is building up again as oil prices remain elevated, exerting strain on the fuel-importing nation’s trade deficit. Stock outflows also exceeded $5 billion last month.” Read more: Bhaskar Dutta, Bloomberg

• India’s Labour Productivity Puzzle

“Sustained economic growth accompanied by structural transformation is a necessary condition for India to achieve its developmental goals over the next few decades. While the Indian economy has consistently been among the fastest growing large economies over the past few decades, this growth has not been accompanied by adequate structural transformation… A large share of the workforce remains concentrated in agriculture and low-productivity services, alongside a relatively small but highly productive modern sector comprising parts of manufacturing and high-value-added services… Against this backdrop, recent developments in India are striking. Since 2018, employment levels have increased, female labour force participation has risen, and India has emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic as the fastest-growing large economy in the world, combining robust output growth with relatively low inflation. In a macroeconomic sense, India’s recent performance appears enviable, especially when viewed against a global environment marked by repeated shocks. However, sustained output growth has been accompanied by a dramatic slowdown in labour productivity growth. In this paper we argue that this pattern represents a departure even from India’s historically distinctive trajectory. Rather than combining output growth with gradual structural transformation, India has experienced what we describe as structural retrogression. By structural retrogression we mean a sustained reversal in the direction of labour reallocation. Employment expansion has coincided with stagnant or declining labour productivity, indicating a growth process increasingly reliant on the extensive margin—more people working, more earners per household, and greater labour mobilisation—rather than improvements in output per worker or firm-level efficiency. While segments of the modern sector have continued to expand impressively, the bulk of employment growth has occurred in surplus labour sectors. In a historically unusual development, agriculture has absorbed more labour in recent years than it did half a decade earlier. This has persisted post Covid.” Read more: Amit Basile and Arjun Jayadev, Centre for the Study of the Indian Economy

• India’s Axis Bank Raises $500 Million in Offshore Loan From MUFG

“Axis Bank Ltd, India’s third-largest private lender, has signed a $500 million offshore loan with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., according to people familiar with the matter, underscoring rising demand for bank credit. The three-year facility will be priced based on the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) plus 85-basis point interest margin, the people said, asking not to be identified as the details are private. The bank plans to use the funds for lending and general business purposes, they said… The fundraising comes at a time when banks in India are facing challenges because loans are growing significantly faster than deposits. For instance, Axis Bank’s loans expanded 19% to 12.3 trillion rupees ($130 billion) in the year ended March, while its deposits grew by only 14%, according to its data. Axis Bank has secured the loan facility, with MUFG acting as the sole mandated lead arranger and bookrunner, Girish Vasnani, director in the capital markets group at the Japanese lender, said by email.” Read more: Saikat Das, Bloomberg

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Foreign Policy & Security:

• Modi, Lam Meet as India and Vietnam Deepen AI, Defense Ties

“India and Vietnam agreed to strengthen economic and defense ties as both sides seek to deepen their partnership while tensions persist in the Middle East. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held talks with Vietnam President To Lam in New Delhi on Wednesday, with agreements signed across sectors ranging from rare earths to payment systems. The two countries aim to boost bilateral trade to $25 billion by 2030, Modi said at a joint press briefing after the meeting… The visit is Lam’s second overseas trip since securing the presidency last month, and he is accompanied by key ministers and a business delegation. He met India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval on Tuesday, and the two sides agreed to expand cooperation in areas such as security, artificial intelligence and energy, according to a statement on the Vietnamese government’s website… Vietnam is seen as a key partner in India’s “Act East” policy, underpinned by growing defense and economic ties, while the South Asian country is Vietnam’s eighth largest trade partner. Indian companies have invested in 473 projects in Vietnam with a total registered capital of $1.1 billion. Vietnamese investment in India has also accelerated, highlighted by VinFast’s electric vehicle factory in Tamil Nadu state and Vingroup’s plan to invest about $6.5 billion in Maharashtra state. Defense cooperation has increased in recent years through expanded maritime cooperation, joint exercises and capacity-building support. The Indian Navy transferred the indigenously-built missile corvette INS Kirpan to Vietnam in 2023.” Read more: Sudhi Ranjan Sen and Nguyen Dieu Tu Uyen, Bloomberg

• Navy chief meets Myanmar naval leadership, discusses steps to boost def ties, enhance maritime security in Bay of Bengal region

“As part of efforts to intensify Modi govt’s ‘Act East Policy,’ Navy chief Admiral Dinesh K. Tripathi has held a meeting with Myanmar Navy’s commander-in-chief Admiral Htien Win in Naypyitaw and discussed growing bilateral ties and enhancing maritime security in the Bay of Bengal region. Their meeting also focused on advancing naval engagements between both countries, including on maritime engagement opportunities, capacity building, training exchanges and mobile training teams (MTTs), hydrography and greater interoperability… On Monday, Admiral Tripahit met Myanmar’s defense minister General Htun Aung and discussed the current canvas of bilateral ties. During the visit, Myanmar Navy will host the crew of IOS Sagar for an official interaction.” Read more: Surendra Singh, Times of India

• ‘Politicisation of the Military’: Veterans Question Senior Army Officer’s Meeting With Union Minister Gadkari

“Service veterans have expressed unease over a senior Indian Army officer’s meeting with Union road and transport minister Nitin Gadkari in Nagpur last Friday (May 1), during which he sought support for expanding NCC infrastructure and training capabilities across Maharashtra – an interaction they claimed sat uneasily with established institutional channels for such requests. They further contended that the Press Information Bureau’s (PIB) projection of the May 1 meeting between Major General Vivek Tyagi, additional director general, NCC Maharashtra Directorate and Gadkari, went well beyond a routine recording of official engagements… The PIB’s 320-word press note stated that during an ‘inspection-cum-review visit’ to Nagpur, General Tyagi had sought Gadkari’s assistance for developing “dedicated infrastructure” for the NCC in Mumbai and Kolhapur, including the establishment of a State Academy for it in Nagpur. “What is revealing is not the meeting itself, but the phrasing and tone of the PIB note, which point to a steady politicisation of the military’s relationship with the civilian executive,” a three-star Army veteran said. Speaking on condition of anonymity, he remonstrated that there was “no basis or precedent” for a serving two-star officer to be “seeking assistance” from an individual minister, as though the Army were operating within a patronage system.” Read more: Rahul Bedi, The Wire

• Why the Next India-Pakistan War Will Escalate

“The May 2025 crisis, in which the neighbors exchanged intense cross-border fire for four days, was the most serious fighting between two nuclear powers in decades. It marked a significant expansion of conventional conflict below the nuclear threshold, with drones, missiles, and artillery striking an unprecedented number of sensitive targets, including military bases and urban centers. Far from being chastened by the scale of the fighting, military planners in India and Pakistan have instead spent the last year drawing lessons about how to inflict greater damage on each other in future conflicts. Both sides have concluded that the next major clash will turn on their ability to strike faster, farther, and in greater volume than they have in the past… They also appear increasingly convinced that, should the conflict erupt again, more intense conventional fighting would not risk nuclear escalation… Yet despite their confidence and bluster, the continued risk of escalation in a region home to a quarter of the world’s population should not be underestimated… If and when it comes, the next crisis between India and Pakistan is likely to prove more dangerous, more destructive, and more difficult for Washington to manage. Both sides have historically shown considerable caution in managing crises and avoiding uncontrolled escalation. But India and Pakistan climbed new rungs of the escalation ladder in the last conflict without serious repercussions, emerging both more determined to exact meaningful costs on the battlefield and more confident in their ability to do so.” Read more: Elizabeth Threlkeld, Foreign Affairs

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People & Politics:

• Verdict Bengal: Decisive win in a divided state

“The streetfighter has been beaten. For the first time in many years, some people on the ground in West Bengal saw weakness in Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). Voters complained of cut money, the violence of local workers, a lack of jobs, a desire for poriborton (change) — ironically the same tagline on which Banerjee swept to power in 2011. The TMC had pinned its hopes of holding on to power to the “Bengal model” it used five years ago, a combination of winning Muslim voters and counteracting Hindu-Muslim polarisation by appealing to female voters across the spectrum… Since its drubbing in 2021, the BJP had revamped its strategy in West Bengal. Knowing that it had a weaker party organisation, it sought to simultaneously dent TMC’s welfarism advantage (by promising ₹3,000 to women — double of Lakshmir Bhandar), while seeking to find a narrative that would allow it start winning more in Greater Kolkata, hitherto TMC’s stronghold, by painting the TMC as a party incapable of bringing economic development. But the BJP was also helped by the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls. Its impact was far greater than mere cuts and additions. As I documented with Bhanu Joshi, the real impact came in the murkiness of how it was being applied. When Hindus saw Muslims in neighbouring localities and villages being struck off the electoral rolls in a charged atmosphere, it gave way to a series of rumours to sow greater division between the Hindu and Muslim communities.” Read more: Neelanjan Sircar, Hindustan Times

• How delimitation gave a boost to BJP and allies in Assam

“The landslide victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies in the Assam assembly elections came as no surprise to Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. One of the reasons, he told reporters after the result, was the delimitation exercise carried out in 2023, which ensured that Muslim voters would play a decisive role only in 23 of the state’s 126 constituencies… As Scroll had reported, the delimitation exercise in Assam had been conducted ostensibly to protect the political rights of the state’s indigenous people. But the manner in which constituency borders were redrawn effectively reduced Muslim representation in the state. Sarma was not far off the mark. The BJP ended up with 82 seats, and its allies, the Bodo Peoples Front and the Asom Gana Parishad, won ten seats each, taking the tally of the alliance to 102… How much was delimitation a factor in this boost? Scroll’s analysis shows that the BJP-led alliance benefited from the exercise in 19 seats. This includes five new seats created in the tribal areas of the state, two erstwhile Muslim-majority seats that were reserved for Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe groups and 12 other seats that saw a significant restructuring of demography. Opposition leaders have described the delimitation exercise in Assam as gerrymandering – redrawing the boundaries of constituencies to give an advantage to a particular political party.” Read more: Rokibuz Zaman, Scroll

• Did SIR exercise win West Bengal for the BJP?

“The short answer: Likely not… The question above is the most polarising one to ask vis-à-vis the West Bengal results. Of the 14 states and union territories where the Election Commission of India (ECI) has conducted the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) or special revision (SR) of electoral rolls since last year, six states/UTs have had elections after the exercise. SIR was the most contentious and potentially disenfranchising in nature in West Bengal, where 2.7 million electors were removed from the rolls under the adjudication process (and were awaiting their fate even on the day of election) over and above the 6.2 million who were deleted in SIR apart from the adjudication category… The BJP and the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) (both are taken along with any allies throughout this analysis) have vote shares of 45.8% and 41.1% respectively in the 2026 assembly elections as of 10pm. The BJP has gained 7.1 percentage points in vote share and the TMC has lost 4.7 percentage points compared to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the latest pre-SIR poll in the state. In absolute terms, the BJP has polled 5.6 million more votes while the TMC has polled 1.7 million less votes compared to the 2024 elections (according to ECI data as of 10pm)… The BJP, won 121, 77, and 90 ACs in the 2019, 2021 and 2024 elections, if one were to break up 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha results into AC-segments. It won 54 ACs in all of these elections. In 2026, the BJP has won all of the 54 ACs it won in 2019, 2021 and 2024 elections. It won 100% of the 142 ACs it won in any of these elections. And it added another 65 ACs to its kitty which it had never won.” Read more: Abhishek Jha and Roshan Kishore, Hindustan Times

Tech:

• Karnataka’s tech ecosystem raises $868 million in first three months of 2026

“Karnataka’s tech industry raised $868 million in the first quarter of this year, registering a 16 per cent decline from the preceding three months but a 7% rise annually, according to a report by market intelligence firm Tracxn. Deal volume fell 38% to 117 rounds, yet total capital raised remained nearly steady, indicating that investors are concentrating their bets by writing fewer but larger cheques rather than retreating from the market. Bengaluru accounted for 98% of the capital flow across these rounds at $848 million, followed by Tiptur, which accounted for the remaining 2% at $19.3 million, driven absolutely by Akshayakalpa’s Series D funding… “What is notable is that all four of the largest rounds went to companies founded before 2020 - mature businesses continuing to scale rather than new entrants breaking through,” Tracxn said. Three Karnataka-based companies - Amagi, at a market cap of $858 million; Shadowfax, at $782 million; and e2E Rail, at $33.3 million, all went public in the first quarter of 2026.” Read more: Economic Times

Chart of the week:

Trade volume passing through Strait of Hormuz

Source: Fabio Murgia, Matthew P. Funaiole, Harrison Prétat, Aidan Powers-Riggs, and Jasper Verschuur, Center for Strategic & International Studies

While the introduction was written in late January 2026, and the conversation focuses on a pre-February 2026 economic reality, many of the themes covered in this conversation remain relevant, and some (such as the re-routing of trade networks) might be even more pertinent.

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I. Introduction:

The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) ‘World Economic Outlook’ report, released in January 2026, noted,

“Global growth is projected to remain resilient at 3.3 percent in 2026 and at 3.2 percent in 2027: rates similar to the estimated 3.3 percent outturn in 2025. The forecast marks a small upward revision for 2026 and no change for 2027 compared with that in the October 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO).”

The report goes on to note that the headwinds from “shifting trade policies” were “offset by tailwinds from surging investment related to technology.”

That IMF’s global economic outlook for 2026 remained largely the same in October 2025 and in January 2026^[1] is surprising given that 2025 was defined by “protracted and system-wide uncertainty over trade policy shifts and geoeconomic challenges.”

2025 was indeed a banner year for trade. Sample the following: Soon after President Trump’s return to office, his administration issued the America First Trade Policy; April saw ‘Liberation Day’ with the U.S. announcing a minimum of 10% tariff on its trading partners only to pause the decision within days; the U.S.-China trade war escalated and then de-escalated within months; China’s weaponization of its rare earths chokehold disrupted industries globally; analysts ratcheted up estimates of a global recession in 2025; the EU and India stabilized their respective ties with China while remaining wary of lopsided bilateral trade ties (see Figure 1); the politicization of energy flows continued (if not increased); and several major economies (notably Brazil, Canada, and India) were in trade disputes with the U.S. for ostensibly non-trade reasons.

Despite this there are limited signs that point to “serious damage to trade in goods and services.” Alan Beattie, in the Financial Times notes,

“Longer-term trends towards politicizing and weaponizing globalization of course remain in place, but for now the most striking thing about world trade is its resilience.” [emphasis added]

In the same paper, Gita Gopinath cautions against complacency, stating that it’s a mistake to “think the global economy is unaffected by tariff fights and policy chaos.” She adds,

“We have seen this movie before. When the Brexit referendum passed, despite the sharp increase in uncertainty, the economic impact was initially minimal. But a decade later, the UK is estimated to have lost between 6 to 8 per cent of GDP relative to its pre-Brexit trajectory. The lesson is simple: structural damage reveals itself slowly, and always too late to be reversed.” [emphasis added]

Alongside warnings by economists, maritime trade experts have sounded the alarm noting that IMF trade outlooks are “skewed” because projections obscure “the reality of weaker physical demand for volume‑dense goods.” Furthermore, according to Gary Hufbauer and Ye Zhang, at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, many of the factors that contributed to steady US trade shares – including firms frontloading exports to the U.S. in the early months of 2025, exemptions to negotiated or announced U.S. tariffs (for instance, see Figure 2), slow rates of change in trade relations, and lack of retaliation against US exports – may fade in 2026.

Even as the impact of the significant upheavals in the global trading order plays out, one of the most notable factors remains the disproportionate trade headwinds that least developed and developing countries will have to navigate (see Figure 3).

To make sense of changes in the global trading order and the crazy year that was 2025, I reached out to Gilberto García-Vazquez. He is the Chief Economist at the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab, former Chief Economist at Datawheel, and a Senior Fellow with the Mexico Program at the Inter-American Dialogue.^[2] He is a keen observer of trade dynamics, writes insightful pieces on the subject, and regularly shares his knowledge on LinkedIn. His former role at DataWheel, deep familiarity with data, and regular interface with leading policymakers gives him a unique perspective on trade patterns.

I first heard Gilberto speak at a panel on ‘Just and Green Development in the Global South’, organized by the Jain Family Institute during the 2025 New York Climate Week. In that conversation, he presented an image of economic growth (see question #2) that made me sit up in my seat. While such metaphors maybe intuitive to trained economists, I knew I had to try and interview him to better understand global trade dynamics in 2025.

He kindly took time out of his busy schedule and agreed to speak with me. I’m really happy to share an edited transcript of our conversation with Indialog readers. Views expressed are personal.

This is the fourth edition of the Policy Playbook series: a series where I will speak with experts, policymakers, bureaucrats, and others to delve deeper into policy issues that deserve nuance and greater scrutiny.

ICYMI: For the first edition, I spoke with Ajay Srivastava (former Indian Trade Services officer, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative, and a scholar of India’s trade dynamics) on India-China trade ties; for the second edition, I interviewed Rohan Mukherjee (Assistant Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science, non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of the award-winning book Ascending Order: Rising Powers and the Politics of Status in International Institutions); for the third edition, I spoke with Elizabeth Threlkeld and Dan Markey (experts on U.S.’s relationship with South Asian countries with decades of government service between them; they currently lead the South Asia Program at the Stimson Centre) on U.S.-South Asia ties under Trump 2.0.

On to the conversation with Gilberto –

II. Policy Playbook #4: Economic Growth & Trade Networks with Gilberto García-Vazquez

Shreyas Shende: In a LinkedIn post (Figure 4) you observed that trade is complex and when it is disrupted, trade routes often adapt, showcasing this underlying resiliency that we may not see when trade is initially disrupted. It’s fair to say that 2025 was this definitive year when trade networks were realigned, and highly disrupted. What are some key takeaways for you in terms of how global trade ties fared over the last year, and what key themes would you like to highlight?

Gilberto García-Vazquez: Obviously, 2025, in terms of trade, was a year of disruptions (Figure 5), something that we haven’t seen historically… maybe only a few times before. I think the main lesson, or the difference that I see now that I didn’t see before, a year before when all this started, is more and more of this understanding that trade is a network. When you shock a network, when you shake it, usually what you get is a rerouting and increasing prices, but not a clear break. That’s something that people have come to realize that this is not the end of trade or a stop of trade given this disruption that happened.

A network shakes, it is rerouted, there are new prices (see Figure 6). There are three things that have stood out to me during this year in the way that trade has been shifting. The first one is that reliability is now extremely important. You can see it clearly in the data. Firms are now treating reliability as a core input. Disruptions increase the variance of delivery times. Now what you see in the data is that companies are paying for redundancy. They have multiple suppliers, have multiple routes, and they move more inventory around. That is giving an advantage to those firms that can be in a location or sector or an activity that can deliver, on a schedule, with consistent quality, and at scale. Now, that is a big advantage, where you are in a location that allows you to do those things.

The other lesson is that policy and geopolitics are now material trade costs. More and more firms are assuming these as a trade cost. Tariffs, sanction risks, more compliance requirements that countries are seeking in terms of regional trade, for example, they are changing the expected margins that firms have over their activities. What do you do when this happens? You respond by diversifying across locations and redesigning supply chains because you want to limit single-country exposure. Competitiveness now also depends on how you become a low-risk node, not just a low-cost one. When a location can position itself as low risk and not just low cost, it is a good thing.

The third learning is that there has been selective regionalization. I’m looking at all these data and trying to answer questions around globalization, regionalization, what’s going on. There are still a lot of variances, and you don’t see full regionalization, and you don’t see full globalization.

There are certain standardized products that have deep supplier bases and they are remaining global. At the same time, there are activities that are time sensitive. They require a lot of compliance. These activities concentrate on a smaller set of low-risk hubs. Those are trying to be more in line with regionalization. For a country like India or Mexico that have certain similarities, the key takeaway is that this realignment that is happening globally, it’s a great opening for your country, but only if you can offer predictable logistics and predictable policy to temper the risks that are perceived globally. Firms are asking if they can commit capital and integrate their supply chains, perhaps with India, to their network as a reliable supplier.

SS: This metaphor of trade networks being disrupted and shifting is helpful in visualizing how global trade might be structured. The next question is based on another framing device you’d previously invoked that really stood out to me. In a panel on ‘Just and Green Development in the Global South’ organized by the Jain Family Institute, you outlined how a country should think about economic complexity and growth. You recommended that we shouldn’t picture economic growth as going up “a ladder [that goes from] mining, to refining, to batteries [for instance].” Rather, you suggest that we should rethink of progress in the economy in terms of a “climbing wall” [remarks between 2:07:00 – 2:08:15]. At any point, a country will have multiple pockets that it can reach from a certain starting point, and many more pockets become available after a country makes a few moves up. Can you elaborate on this metaphor taking the example of the Indian economy or a particular sector within India’s economy?

GGV: Moving up on the economic ladder is something that you read over and over in articles and books about economic development. I have also used this framing. I was thinking about this, and I realized that the ladder metaphor is misleading. It’s misleading because it implies that there’s one sequence… that there is one correct sequence and that moving upstream automatically leads to downstream competitiveness. This is the one and only correct way and that you can integrate upstream and downstream competitiveness automatically.

I believe that the climbing wall framing is closer to how capability accumulation actually works. This works for a location, a country, a region or even a state municipality. The thing is that at any moment, a country, a place, has specific sets of capabilities. These capabilities are, for example, your skills, suppliers, the logistics that you can offer. These capabilities make some new activities feasible because they thrive in that ecosystem. They are closer to those new sets of capabilities and skills.

Other capabilities are totally unrealistic or very difficult to achieve. Even if they look attractive on paper, certain preconceptions about sectors or hierarchy or value chains can make you think certain goals or capabilities to acquire are a good idea. They may not be because each successful move in a location, what it’s doing is that it is expanding the set of feasible next moves that you can make to achieve in terms of your economic diversification and development.

In this case, a climbing wall is a more correct method of framing, and well-suited because it is very context based. It starts with the capabilities that your location already has. In each country and each context, these capabilities are different.

In this framing, the second point is that when you are at a climbing wall, you have a rope. The rope in this case, is your fiscal space. This money matters because it’s a tool for bearing the risk and the coordination capability in that location. You can finance a few moves if you have discipline, but you cannot actually fund every pocket [aka step in the value chain] at once. You can’t.

The policy problem is then that you have two choices in a portfolio that face constraints. There are different constraints. For example, you want to select a small number of adjacent moves that are feasible to you, that have high learning potential, that help you to go to new places that you couldn’t go to before because you’ve created certain capabilities.

They also have a clear market pool. These things enforce performance measurement and with this fiscal rope, you can establish sunset clauses because you don’t want to be subsidizing or financing these sectors permanently. You need to move to the new capabilities or sections that you want to climb as well (Figure 7).

In terms of an example, it could be electric mobility. In India, electric mobility and power electronics is discussed a lot. Instead of assuming that the path must run from mining to refining to assembly to sales, kind of like an economic ladder, countries like India can move across multiple adjacent pockets, like on a climbing wall.

This includes scaling battery pack assembly and battery management system that leverage electronics and software, something India is very competitive in and very strong at. Then, you can expand to motors, inverters, and charging equipment, building on the already existing strong auto components base in India. It also includes investing in testing and standards and recycling to reduce coordination failures that happen in the market. In this framing, the idea of refining comes later – if capabilities and fiscal space allow for it. At the end of the day, capabilities come from sequencing jumps that you can do, the paths that you can follow, and by compounding capabilities. Not from trying to own an entire value chain all at once.

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SS: I’d like to turn to India. You’ve spoken about the wide array of tools that a nation can deploy to grow its economy, its manufacturing base, its export competitiveness. One of the key goals of the Indian government has been to increase its manufacturing capabilities. The government aimed to increase the share of manufacturing to 25% of India’s GDP by 2025. It has taken many steps towards this effort including the flagship Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, labor reforms, and changes to the Goods and Services Tax (see Table 1). However, according to official data, the manufacturing sector contributes 17% to India’s GDP (as of March 2025). What steps can India take to increase its manufacturing output? What are some relevant examples for India to learn from?

GGV: Manufacturing goals are very important. In India’s case, the gap between 17% manufacturing share and the 25% target shows that the incentives you’ve provided have not been enough or aren’t aligned.

Taking a step back, you see manufacturing share rise in countries when firms can scale output and do so competitively in international markets. That is because they have predictable costs. Markets respond to that. These firms’ products are consistent in quality, and they create a brand and reference in those markets.

Then these firms are reliable in delivery times. We have been seeing how global chains are disrupted by those mismatches in delivery times. Now, again, companies are very sensitive about that, and it has become very important, even to the point of having excessive inventory.

In this case, if I were advising the Government of India, I would focus on at least three steps. The first one is that you have to lower the end-to-end cost of both producing and shipping. Normally, when you talk about these things, you immediately think about infrastructure, ports, roads, railroads, and so on [see Figure 8].

Of course, that is true, but it’s not just infrastructure. You also want to have predictable customs processes; your custom works is digitally solid with clear rules and performance and is properly funded and operational. That allows you to have fast movement not only from your international borders, but also internally across states. You have fewer compliance frictions. Normally, those frictions create delays, and they are heavy on the working capital that you are using for expansion of your firms.

The second one is you need to build capability at the firm and supplier level. Normally, with industrial policy, you’re thinking about building capabilities at the macro level. You have to go to the supplier-level, to the firm-level. In this case, with countries like India, you need more plans that can meet global quality standards consistently. Consistently is the important word here. That requires testing and certification capacity, skills development that are tied to specific production processes that you discovered that are critical and form bottlenecks in your system, and a diffusion of reliable manufacturing practices that move across supplier networks.

This article that I just wrote shows the in some countries, industrial policy is heavy on the capex side of things. Its physical, visible, you can sell it. But there are a lot of things that don’t have financing. The capability of companies to export, to access global networks for instance. As a firm, if you don’t find a laboratory for testing your materials, if you don’t have access to certain certifications, if those certifications are not transferable among suppliers, buyers, or sectors… if you don’t facilitate all of these things, you create a very high cost of entry for companies that is very difficult to finance because there’s also the huge risk that you will not find the market. Because certain OEMs, tier one companies, have a lot of power in terms of defining those suppliers, and so it’s a high level cost of entry, and a lot of risk for you to even land a consecutive set of contracts that allows you to create muscle, build capacity, and subsidize that access to global markets. So that’s very important.

The third one is that you need to strengthen your industrial ecosystems. When you are scaling in terms of development, what you see is that the fastest scaling happens when you have dense clusters where anchor firms, tier suppliers, logistics, services, they all collocate and learn together. You are creating that industrial ecosystem (Figure 9). And policy, in this case, should push vendor development, and not only focus on the final assembly. Some countries also make the mistake where they focus too much on the anchor firm instead of on the entire ecosystem.

These type of goals and measurements, they could really help. There need to be policies and subsidies, but they have to be highly performance based. The policies have to be simple to manage, to administer. They need to be linked to exports and supplier deepening into your production networks and you need to have clear sunset rules.

These are the lessons from countries that have been very disciplined in terms of export-oriented industrial policy. We have examples in East Asia, Vietnam for example, where they focus on capability accumulation within specific manufacturing lanes. It’s not shooting for everything but being very disciplined in your capability accumulation strategy. In this case, competitiveness improves when policy support is around repeatable production capabilities that you can expand into products that have a market globally.

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SS: I’m glad you invoked the example of Vietnam. It represents one of those recent success cases when it comes to export diversification and manufacturing growth (Figure 10.a & 10.b). India’s journalists, philanthropists and civil society actors, scholars, and policymakers (including the Chief Economic Advisor) often invoke Vietnam’s industrialization as a reference point. In a Phenomenal World article, you pointed out Vietnam’s progress up the advanced electronics value chain was “based on structural agreements, progressive accumulation of capabilities, and clearly defined objectives.” Could you speak to what Vietnam has done and the lessons that India can derive from its growth?

GGV: It’s interesting. I can talk a little bit about Vietnam. I’ve been involved in a couple of projects on the subject. With Vietnam what’s interesting is that I can’t point to one single policy. The lesson from Vietnam is not like some other countries where there’s this industrial policy where you can track everything to a master plan.

What I see in Vietnam, and I don’t know if it was planned or it happened that way… a lot of things in this world happen by accident and coincidence too right… What I see is more of a method… They locked in a stable environment for exporting firms.

Exporting firms in Vietnam have been enjoying a very reliable, stable environment in terms of regulation, policy and so on. These firms are able to build capabilities in sequence, moving from assembling activities to the following steps in terms of value and filling gaps in your value chain.

They have done so with explicit targets (Figure 11). Again – the importance of having those clear targets as part of your policy. You can see the start of that with some of the structural agreements in the country. The core mechanism is to build credibility in terms of the seriousness and depth of industrial and economic reforms.

When you have rules on market access and investment, and create stable operating conditions, as Vietnam has been able to do during the last few decades, this leads firms to commit capital and to co-invest with suppliers. When we are talking about reshoring or onshoring, you have to realize that it requires a lot of co-investments, a lot of trust building, making sure that the relationship is worth it. When you create those stable conditions, this can ensure that laws of trade can be sustained over time – that lowers the risk and leads to investments.

The second point will be on the progressive accumulation of capabilities. As I was saying before, you cannot try to jump immediately to the hardest activities. You are assembling and then suddenly you want to go to the most complex part of the puzzle that you’re working on? The process is step by step; you have to be disciplined and realistic. Not conformist in terms of what you can achieve but realistic in terms of what your current capabilities are and where you can move next.

You go step by step, and begin with activities that can be executed using your existing capabilities, and then you move to adjacent capabilities through supplier development, skills so on… It’s a lot of procedure and very boring stuff that you need to do to start consolidating those capabilities and extending them. And at each step, what your goal is, what you’re trying to achieve is to increase supplier density. You want a denser network of the supplier base in the country, and the ability to meet global standards consistently. You are moving from assembly activity to becoming part of a dense network of suppliers.

The third thing that has happened in Vietnam is that they have clearly defined objectives. That matters because you can turn industrial policy into a performance system. What you also see with industrial policy at times is a lot of inertia and ideas that are generalist. What you try to have is a system that performs well and these metrics are important.

Finally, support from the government should be conditional. Your policies need to be measurable in terms of outcomes, have to work, must show that it is delivering. For instance, you want reliability in terms of the supplier base you are building, there need to be certification milestones, export targets, how many local suppliers are you onboarding, what are the productivity improvements you’re seeing in the country, what are the sunset rules, what will happen if those targets are not met. Then you have an industrial policy system that delivers.

In the case of India, the adaptation is to select a small number of export lanes. You don’t go for everything. You have to develop a target policy where there is a capability base. You start from something that already exists, that is real, and you build dense clusters around anchor firms. You use performance-based support tied to export competitiveness and supplier deepening.

Competitiveness improves with the right policies, when you’re reducing uncertainty and converting investment that are happening or could happen into repeatable capabilities that expand the export basket from where you are to where you can and want to be.

SS: I also wanted to speak about the ‘Observatory of Economic Complexity’ (OEC), one of the projects created by DataWheel. It’s a widely used tool and consists of so many interesting datapoints. Among other factors, the OEC measures and ranks a country according to its economic complexity. On the trade front, India’s economic complexity ranking has improved marginally over the past twenty years from 41 in 2003 to 39 in 2024 [see figure 12]. What do these figures say about the Indian economy?

GGV: So economic complexity index is a measurement of the skills capability that exists in a place. Its data driven so it’s heuristic in the way that you don’t start from preconceived ideas. It’s very helpful in that way and it matters because it has been linked to economic growth, to the reduction of inequality, to the reduction of your CO₂ emissions per economic unit.

With respect to India, there are different elements that I want to mention so that it gets a fair assessment. The first is that, in the economic complexity index based on trade that is pictured above [Figure 12], moving from rank 41 to rank 39 over twenty years, shows that there has been more of incremental change than a structural shift. In that period, you may see other countries with a more structural shift.

In this case we are talking about economic complexity index based on trade. This is a trade-based framing – we’re using trade as a proxy for the set of capabilities a country can deploy on global markets and be specialized at. So, when the ranking moves only slightly, in the case of India, it suggests that India has added capabilities but not fast enough or at a sufficient scale in order to change its position relative to its peers.

Economic complexity index is a comparative measure; it’s not an absolute measure. That’s the first point. This is a relative ranking: the question is not only what India improved on but how quickly other countries improved at the same time.

The second point is that this is built on an export basket. It reflects what is produced competitively for external markets. It also shows a lot in terms of what is your connection to global value chains. You are not taking into consideration what’s produced domestically or other measurements of economic complexity.

For example, there’s also an economic complexity index measured with research and an economic complexity index measured with patents (Figure 13). If you see India’s rankings on these fronts, the economic complexity of research is lower than economic complexity index for trade. This research-focused is based on the papers that are published and peer-reviewed magazines from India.

The third economic complexity index, based on technology, here India goes to around 0.76 which is almost a standard deviation (Figure 14). It is bigger than the global average and that’s actually very interesting and an encouraging sign for India. It means that India is doing better on the patents front, compared to economic complexity measured through trade or research, and this could be a driver for future economic growth in India.

In this case, the practical takeaway is that India’s challenges aren’t simply about expanding output, they are also about accelerating in terms of diversification into different products. Especially into products that require more demanding and less commonly available capabilities. You don’t want to be involved in commodities; you want to be involved in high knowledge activities and do that at scale. So, policies that reduce trade costs, build supplier level quality, and lead to process capabilities is what could shift economic complexity for trade over time. Competitiveness improves when India’s export basket expands into capability intensive products, deliver reliably to global markets over time. [All of this] combined with research and technology capabilities are very important things to keep in mind.

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SS: I want to wrap up this conversation, and the penultimate question is related to recent events, in the past few weeks but also over the year. Safe to say that the use of tariffs as a geopolitical weapon will continue for a while. There have also been conversations about how middle powers need to step up, and there has been much discussion around the Canadian Prime Minister’s speech at Davos (Figure 15).^[3] I’m curious about India’s place in this evolving order. India has signed a number of trade deals over the past few years (Figure 16) and is keen on expanding its trade profile. What is something that Indian policymakers should keep in mind over the next decade or so given the lessons that we have learned about how geopolitical forces can realign to disrupt trade linkages? What is something that those who are interested in learning about trade keep in mind given our experiences over the last year or so?

GGV: Yeah, extremely interesting stuff happening during the last few days. It’s impossible not to feel that there’s a system that is breaking very fast and then we have a lot of uncertainty about what’s next… what is going to come of all this. Canadian Prime Minister Carney’s speech was also very interesting considering that he spoke of this rupture and we have the USMCA renegotiation that is coming up in a few months, in the summer this year, and these discussions will have some cost, some impact on the Canadian economy.

I understand and actually applaud the idea of building a diversification strategy and relying less on an unreliable partner. But the problem is you cannot do that at once. Not possible for a country like Canada, or even for a country like India that is not as connected as to the U.S. economy as Canada or Mexico is.

In terms of your question, the first point would be that these tariffs are not only a price shock – they are an uncertainty shock. You’re creating uncertainty in the trade network. What happens in such a scenario is that tariffs raise the risk premium on trade and investment and that leads to some responses… One of those responses is of reducing both the trade exposure and vulnerabilities you have.

I was thinking about these impacts in the context of Mexico. If I were making decisions, I would do three things at the same time. It’s easier said than done but these three things require a lot of attention and focus but I think it’s the only way around the problem.

The first is that you have to concentrate on bilateral engagement and focus on small set of products where you have clear capabilities… In dealing with the U.S. your objective is to gain some predictability, and you need to have specific coordination on standards compliance, supply reliability. What you’re trying to do here is to keep trade flowing even when political and geopolitical conditions are shifting. If you’re an incumbent firm, you want to solidify your position following a change in policies.

The second is that you have to help firms adapt in terms of their operations. That means you have to help them move faster on trade facilitation; you have to have a smoother duty and tax administration, export financing and insurance support… You have to support a compliance system that is better at trustability and documentation that are important for trade and accessing new markets. What you’re doing with these measures is lowering the fixed cost of switching markets and rerouting supply chains. There are costs associated with diversifying and you have to have very clear mechanisms to support such changes.

The third is that you want to accelerate diversification (see Figure 16). What India can do on this front is that you need to reduce dependence on any one single destination and you do that by expanding market access and moving into products with graded pricing power... products that have fewer substitutes in international markets, moving away from commodities. In this case when you’re talking about the capability agenda, what you’re doing is supplier development, quality infrastructure – not just physical infrastructure but also digital infrastructure. Your thinking should not just be in terms of a tariff response but in thinking about productivity gains and how you are going to accelerate diversification.

For India, the best way to protect its interests in this environment is keeping key links to the U.S. stable. This will give you the time and resources to making your export sector resilient to policy shocks and at the same time help you diversify into deeper production capabilities that then allow you to access new markets with new products more easily and with greater competitiveness.

SS: This has been a great conversation, thank you so much for your time and for sharing your expertise. I want to end this by asking you… For readers who are interested in learning more about economic growth, economic complexity, what are some texts or tools that you would recommend?

GGV: I would recommend Cesar Hidalgo’s latest book, The Infinite Alphabet (Figure 17). I think it’s a fascinating book, very well written. It goes into the idea of how knowledge diffuses in an economy.

The world actually works not because you have a few people who know a lot, but when you have a lot of people who know little things and how some organizations and countries take advantage of that helping knowledge diffuse and increase. It also talks about how knowledge is very difficult to grow but very easy to lose. It’s a very interesting book that goes into detail on economic complexity and is very easy to read.

III. Further Reading:

• Same Goal, Different Rules: India’s Deals with the EU and US by Ajay Srivastava, The India Forum [April 2, 2026]

• Middle East Conflict Complicates Outlook on Trump Tariff Anniversary by Shruti Srivastava, Bloomberg [April 1, 2026]

• Assessing India’s Trade Performance: Pathways to Strategic and Deeper Integration With Global Value Chains by Prerna Prabhakar, Fukunari Kimura, Ikumo Isono, Satoru Kumagai, Koichiro Kimura & Isamu Wakamatsu, Centre for Social and Economic Progress [March 17, 2026]

• Industrial Policy for Development: Approaches in the Twenty-First Century by Ana Fernandes & Tristan Reed, World Bank [March 17, 2026]

• The Trump-China trade wars: Five takeaways from US imports in 2025 by Chad P. Bown, Peterson Institute for International Economics [March 16, 2026]

• India’s 20 Years of GDP Misestimation: New Evidence by Abhishek Anand, Josh Felman & Arvind Subramanian, Peterson Institute for International Economics [March 2026]

• Eye on the Market Energy Paper: Fighting Words by Michael Cembalest, J.P. Morgan [March 2026]

• It Is About Time: Measurement, Challenges, and Policies for Asia by Asian Development Bank [March 2026]

• India has accepted gross asymmetry: Biswajit Dhar by T. K. Rajalakshmi, Frontline [February 23, 2026]

• India’s Government Must Defend Taxpayers, Not Foreign Investors by Jayati Ghosh & Diego Llumá, Project Syndicate [February 12, 2026]

• Non-Hegemony: Development in a fragmenting world order by Ilias Alami, Tom Chodor & Jack Taggart, Phenomenal World [February 12, 2026]

• Trump’s Dollar: The future of the international monetary system by Steffen Murau, Phenomenal World [February 6, 2026]

• Henry Farrell on The Most Important Foreign Policy Speech in Years by Ezra Klein, The New York Times [January 27, 2026]

• The Strong Will Suffer What They Must by Seva Gunitsky, Hegemon [January 21, 2026]

• Enhancing India’s Trade Competitiveness through Inclusive Liberalisation by Rajat Kathuria & Neha Gupta, ERIA Discussion Paper Series [January 8, 2026]

• Don’t be fooled — everything has changed for the global economy by Gita Gopinath, Financial Times [January 7, 2026]

• Brazil and the World System: An interview with Brazil’s Minister of Finance by Fernando Haddad (interviewed by Daniel Denvir), Phenomenal World [November 8, 2025]

• More Method than Madness: China’s Response to Trump’s New Tariff War by Minxin Pei, China Leadership Monitor [August 31, 2025]

• The Rise of the Economic Security State by Henry Farrell & Abraham Newman, Foreign Affairs [August 28, 2025]

• The Weaponized World Economy: Surviving the New Age of Economic Coercion by Henry Farrell & Abraham Newman, Foreign Affairs [August 19, 2025]

• India struggles to escape the Trump tariff trap by Alan Beattie, Financial Times [August 18, 2025]

• Tracking tariffs: Key moments in the US-China trade dispute by Spencer Feingold & Kimberley Botwright, World Economic Forum [June 25, 2025; updated: January 5, 2026]

• In the Name of “Rebalancing”: An Assault on Trade by Mona Ali, Transition Security Project [November 10, 2025]

• Impact of Trump Shock on Indian Economy: An Assessment by Rudrani Bhattacharya, Manish Gupta, Sudipto Mundle & Radhika Pandey, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy [June 5, 2025]

• “Make in India” relies on “Made in China” by Akhil Ramesh, Hinrich Foundation [May 13, 2025]

• Why is India Struggling With Manufacturing Competitiveness? by Prerna Prabhakar, Sanjay Kathuria & T.G. Srinivasan, Centre for Social and Economic Progress [May 8, 2025]

• How China aims to mitigate the economic impact of US tariffs by Goldman Sachs [May 6, 2025]

• How global trade is shifting amid rising US tariffs by Goldman Sachs [May 2, 2025]

• Convergence? Thoughts about the evolution of mainstream macroeconomics over the last 40 years by Olivier Blanchard, Peterson Institute for International Economics [May 2025]

• Nostalgia for Free Trade Is Not the Answer by Rune Møller Stahl, Jacobin [April 20, 2025]

• India must stand up to Donald Trump, the bully by Pratap Bhanu Mehta, Indian Express [April 5, 2025]

• Will Malignant Stupidity Kill the World Economy? by Paul Krugman [April 3, 2025]

• Eye on the Market: Redacted - Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day by Michael Cembalest, J.P. Morgan [April 2, 2025]

• The future of international economic institutions is up for grabs by Adam Tooze, Financial Times [February 3, 2025]

• Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare by Edward Fishman, Penguin Random House [February 2025]

• World Tariff Profiles 2025 by the World Trade Organization, the International Trade Centre & UN Trade and Development [2025]

• What Energy Transition Investors See in Trump’s Policy Agenda by Aniket Shah, Jefferies [November 20, 2024]

• Roadblocks to India’s manufacturing renaissance by Vasuki Shastrt, Hinrich Foundation [September 3, 2024]

• A New Economic Policy Playbook by Isabella Weber, Project Syndicate [March 13, 2023]

• The Economic Weapon: The Rise of Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War by Nicholas Mulder, Yale University Press [2022]

• Economic complexity theory and applications by César A. Hidalgo, Nature Reviews Physics [January 25, 2021]

• World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains by World Bank [2020]

• Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion by Henry Farrell & Abraham Newman, International Security [2019]

• Trump’s disruptions by Pratap Bhanu Mehta, The Indian Express [June 14, 2018]

• The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity by Ricardo Hausmann, César A. Hidalgo, Sebastián Bustos, Michele Coscia, Alexander Simoes & Muhammed A. Yildirim, MIT Press [2014]

• Is India’s Manufacturing Sector Moving Away From Cities? by Ejaz Ghani, Arti Grover Goswami & William R. Kerr, National Bureau of Economic Research [April 2012]

• Exports, Capabilities, and Industrial Policy in India by Jesus Felipe, Utsav Kumar & Arnelyn Abdon, Levy Economics Institute [November 2010]

• The building blocks of economic complexity by César A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences [June 30, 2009]

• The Past, Present and Future of Industrial Policy in India: Adapting to the Changing Domestic and International Environment by Ajit Singh, Initiative for Policy Dialogue [October 2008]

• Industrial Policy and Performance since 1980: Which Way Now? by R. Nagaraj, Economic and Political Weekly [August 30, 2003]

• Multilateralism: The Anatomy of an Institution by John Gerard Ruggie, International Organization [1992]

^[1] IMF’s World Economic Outlook was actually higher in January 2026 relative to October 2025.

^[2] At the time of the interview Gilberto was the Chief Economist at Datawheel. He is now my colleague at a think tank.

^[3] Prime Minister Carney’s speech got a lot of attention, including in the Indian media ecosystem. I’d like to direct Indialog readers to another interesting speech that came out a few weeks ago – Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s speech at Tsinghua University on April 13, 2026. Kaiser Kuo at Sinica provides some context to the speech and added an English translation (translated via Claude) on his Substack. From PM Sánchez’s speech: “There are those who insist on interpreting reality in zero-sum terms. On narrating the growth of some as a loss for the rest. Or on arguing that deepening certain relationships implies renouncing others… In my view, what is happening today is not a transfer of hegemonies. It is a multiplication of poles — not only of power, but also of prosperity. And this is wonderful news for Europe. Because for the first time in contemporary history, progress is germinating simultaneously in many places across the planet… The multipolarity I describe is not a hypothesis. It is not a wish either. It is already a reality. The new reality in which the world lives. And therefore we must accept it. We cannot change it. We can only choose between denying it or embracing it.”

• Rethinking how India adapts to extreme heat

“An estimated three-fourths of the country’s workforce, roughly 380 million people, are engaged in heat-exposed labor, spanning agriculture, construction, and a wide range of informal occupations underpinning about half of India’s GDP… The capacity to adapt remains deeply unequal: For instance, only about 8 percent of households currently have access to air conditioning, leaving the majority of the population to cope with rising temperatures through limited or ineffective means. This raises a more fundamental set of questions about how heat is understood, measured, and acted upon across science, policy, and planning… India is already living through substantial climate warming. Area-averaged annual anomalies in monthly maximum temperature rose by approximately 0.28°C per decade since 1980, and the mean anomaly for 2015–2024 reached 0.88°C relative to a 1980–1990 baseline—with 2025 the warmest year on record… This trend matters not just because averages are rising, but because heat extremes are increasing in frequency and becoming more consequential for health, labor, infrastructure, and food systems. The IPCC finds with high confidence that rising temperatures and more frequent hot days and heatwaves will increase heat-related mortality and put growing pressure on human well-being across Asia… The historical temperature record cannot be taken at face value as a planning baseline for Northern India. Observed trends over recent decades combine a greenhouse-driven signal with regional aerosol, irrigation, and land-use effects whose future trajectories differ from their recent past. Heat action plans, agricultural forecasts, labor protections, and financial instruments calibrated to historical averages risk systematic underestimation of the exposures populations will face within those instruments’ own planning horizons. A warming trend that has appeared modest over recent decades may not remain so.” Read more: Climate Adaptation in South Asia research cluster, Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability

• Solar infra helps India meet record 256GW power demand

“Riding on the growing contribution of solar energy to the power generation mix, India comfortably met the peak power demand of 256 gigawatts (GW) on Saturday, the highest ever recorded on a single day, amid soaring temperatures across the country. At the time of peak demand of 256.1 GW, reached at 3.38pm, solar contributed nearly 57 GW, or about 22 per cent of total generation. Data from Grid Controller of India showed that around 12.30 pm, electricity generation from solar plants and rooftop systems rose to about 81 GW, accounting for roughly one-third of the total generation of 242 GW, underscoring its growing significance in the power mix… While coal-fired plants continue to provide the baseload, officials said the contribution of non-fossil sources - including solar, wind, hydro and nuclear - has increased significantly… Santosh Sarangi, secretary in the ministry of new and renewable energy, said solar generation, including rooftop systems, has been rising rapidly and is playing an important role in meeting peak demand. "With higher installation of battery energy storage systems, it will also be able to meet the evening peak demand in future," he said.” Read more: Atul Mathur, Economic Times

• Why India must ramp up coal gasification as part of its energy strategy

“The ongoing conflict in West Asia and the larger energy shock it has created for economies around the world have exposed a harsh reality for India: That it must act on a war footing to convert domestically available raw materials into industrial fuels at scale, particularly to gasify coal, as China has done over the years. In fact, coal gasification is increasingly being considered as a strategy to overcome India’s energy reliance on external sources… India already has an edge, given its vast coal reserves of around 389 billion tonnes, part of which can be diverted away from traditional burning in thermal power plants. But despite such large coal reserves, India has lagged behind China when it comes to coal gasification. China uses the technology at scale, with estimates indicating production of roughly 80 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of syngas-related products… India, on the other hand, has only a handful of operational coal gasification projects… Te aim is to gasify 100 million tonnes (mt) of coal by 2030. In pursuit of that target, the National Coal Gasification Mission (NCGM) budget has been raised from INR 300 crore in FY26 to INR 3525 crore for the current financial year (FY27)… However, what is required is demand-side policies that would help pivot steelmaking from blast furnaces to the syngas-hungry direct reduced iron (DRI) process.” Read more: Sudheer Pal Singh, Business Standard

• China Has 1.4 billion Barrels Strategic Oil Inventory, India 21.4 million

“China has the largest strategic oil inventories of 1.4 billion barrels, much ahead of the US with 413 million barrels, as in December 2025. In contrast, India held a meagre 21.4 million barrels of crude oil stored in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve as of March 2025, as per the data of US Energy Information Administration… China does not report data on its oil inventories, so we estimated China’s inventories based on imports, exports, refining, and oil inventory data from third-party and official sources. For this analysis, both China’s government-held and commercial inventories were considered to be part of strategic oil inventories… According to the Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserve (ISPRL), India had 21.4 million barrels of crude oil stored in its SPR as of March 2025. India also had an additional 3 million barrels of crude oil stored at its Mangalore site for the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) that is not considered part of India’s strategic reserve. An agreement between ADNOC and ISPRL allows ADNOC to use the site for commercial storage as long as 50 per cent of capacity is available for ISPRL’s strategic use.” Read more: Sangeetha G, Deccan Chronicle

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Economy:

• India likely to close FY26 with gross FDI of more than $90 billion, says CEA Nageswaran

“Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran estimates gross Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Fiscal Year 2025-26 to exceed $90 billion. “FDI in April-February period exceeded $88 billion and there is one more month in the year. Going by this trend, our expectation is FY 26 is likely to close with over $90 billion with northward bias,” Nageswaran told businessline. If it happens, this will break the range of $70-80 billion or slightly more, recorded during last four years, he added. This could also mean that FDI in FY26 is expected to be 10 per cent higher than FY25… According to an RBI report, gross FDI witnessed strong growth, while net FDI showed improvement. During April-February period of FY26, FDI inflows remained higher than last year both in gross and net terms. In February, net FDI turned positive after remaining negative for six consecutive months, on account of higher gross inflows and lower repatriations. India’s gross inward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows increased robustly by 18.1 per cent to $88.3 billion during April-February period of FY26… Furthermore, “Singapore, the US, Mauritius, Japan, and the Netherlands were the major source countries of inward FDI to India, accounting for around three-fourth of the total inflows,” the report said. It also highlighted that India remains an attractive destination for greenfield FDI projects… During just concluded Budget session of Parliament, Minister of State in the Commerce & Industry, Jitin Prasada listed various reasons for strong FDI flow. As per United Nations Conference on Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) World Investment Report 2025, India moved up to 15th position among global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) recipients in 2024 from 16th position in 2023.” Read more: Shishir Sinha, The Hindu Businessline

• The Indian economy’s goldilocks scenario that wasn’t

“When the Union Budget was presented in February, a popular notion was that the Indian economy was witnessing a “rare goldilocks period”, as RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra put it. A cultural reference, goldilocks refers to an economy being exactly where policymakers would like it to be — sustained growth, low inflation, and low unemployment. Since then, the news has turned negative. First, India revised (with a new base year of 2022-23) how it calculates its gross domestic product (GDP) — the measure used to assess the size of any economy — and found that the old series (with 2011-12 as base year) was overestimating GDP. Then came the US’s war in Iran, and the further fall in the rupee’s exchange rate with the US dollar. Last week, Japan and the UK overtook India in terms of GDP… If one looks at the data from the old GDP series (as it provides data for past years), it becomes clear that — contrary to popular notion that India’s economy was doing very well — the truth is far more sobering… The two main takeaways are: One, CAGR of nominal GDP over the past 12 years (April 2014-March 2026) has been just above 10% each year. For perspective, CAGR over the past 22 years has been around 12.3%. So, India’s growth rate is decelerating over time — and this deceleration is getting worse. In the past 7 years, nominal GDP growth rate clocked just 9.5% annually. Two, in terms of real GDP — the variable that is more commonly talked about when one refers to India’s growth rate — India clocks a modest growth rate of just 6.2% per annum over the past 12 years. Again, CAGR over the past 22 years is higher than that over the past 12 years, suggesting that the growth momentum had weakened in the past 12 years.” Read more: Udit Mishra, Indian Express

• Looming cost pressures

“With the war in West Asia showing few signs of an early resolution, the economic outlook is turning increasingly uncertain. Crude oil prices have climbed back to $106-107 per barrel, pushing the cost of the Indian basket to around $120 per barrel. The resulting energy shock—among the sharpest on record—threatens to weigh on economies worldwide. For net energy importers such as India, the impact will be disproportionately severe: roughly 80% of crude oil and about half of gas consumption are met through imports, with oil alone accounting for nearly a quarter of the import bill… The pressure on the CAD is likely to be compounded by slowing exports, already hit by higher US tariffs and disruptions in West Asian markets. Merchandise exports are projected to grow by just 5-5.5% in FY27. Remittances, which saw strong inflows in FY25 and FY26, may remain subdued until conditions in the Gulf stabilise; the region accounts for nearly 38% of India’s total remittance inflows. Capital flows, too, are unlikely to offer much support in an environment marked by heightened risk and uncertainty… Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows have also been uneven. After several months of net outflows last year, there was a recovery in March, but volatility is likely to persist. Despite India’s appeal as a large consumer market, FDI may remain subdued until the macroeconomic environment stabilises. The combined effect of a widening CAD and tepid capital inflows raises the possibility of the balance of payments slipping into deficit for a third consecutive year… Any increase in retail fuel prices—which seems inevitable after the Assembly election results on May 4 if the war persists—would have broader second-round effects, pushing up costs across the economy and potentially putting the Reserve Bank of India’s 6.5% GDP growth projection at risk.” Read more: Financial Express

• Oil shock 2026: Milder than the 1970s but reshaping India’s energy outlook

“The blockade of the Persian Gulf will likely run for a while. Let’s assume that the price of oil will stabilise at $160 a barrel, roughly a doubling compared with pre-war conditions. The short-term manifestations are visible. The Indian economy faces a decline in inward remittances, a contraction in merchandise exports, and an expanded import bill for energy. What about a more strategic view, looking into 2027 and beyond?… The 1970s provide us with the reference point. The world experienced big crude oil price jumps in 1973 and 1979… The share of oil and gas in the Indian energy mix expanded from 13 per cent in the 1970s to 31 per cent today, an increase of 139 per cent. Oil intensity in India has stagnated at about 63 grams of oil per dollar of GDP. The magnitude of the price disruption is different. The 1970s featured a 12-fold price increase, from $2.9 to $35 a barrel. Brent is at $105. For 2026, let’s assume the current environment involves a two-fold increase, from $80 to $160… A higher oil price operates as a consumption tax. Income shifts from importing economies like India to exporting economies… A lot of the projects in West Asia will be done by global firms, using Indian workers. Remittance flows from Indian workers will do well… Indian firms will do well by trying to obtain revenues from the coming engineering boom in the West Asia, and from the global boom in renewables and defence.” Read more: Ajay Shah, Business Standard

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Foreign Policy & Security:

• Korea earns. India pays. Who dictates?

“Recently, a day before South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s aircraft touched down at Palam, the foreign ministry held its customary pre-visit briefing at South Block. While briefing the reporters, Secretary (East) P Kumaran made an unusual disclosure: “Bilateral trade is close to $27 billion, but it is quite unbalanced. Our exports are in the range of about $6.5 billion, while Korea’s is about $21.4 billion. So there is a need to rebalance the CEPA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement).” The sentence was deliberate and it wasn’t a diplomatic deviation. It was the government publicly naming an asymmetry that had gone diplomatically unspoken for 16 years… India’s exports to South Korea plummeted to $5.82 billion in 2024-25, as against $8 billion in 2021-22. Korean exports to India surged to $21.06 billion over the same time. The trade deficit, at $15.2 billion in 2024-25, has roughly tripled since the 2010 CEPA came into force… The roughly $50-billion bilateral target Modi and Lee announced is not new. Moon Jae-in and Modi set the same goal in 2019. What is new is Delhi’s public acknowledgement that hitting that number without fixing the ratio would simply enlarge the chasm… At the heart of the outrage stand the Korean blue-chip subsidiaries whose Indian operations now dwarf their parents in perceived value and cash-generation power. For example, LG Electronics India reported revenue of Rs 24,366 crore and a net profit of Rs 2,203 crore last year, up 46 percent year-on-year. Royalty payments to the South Korean parent reached Rs 454.61 crore… Even Japanese major Suzuki, through its Maruti Suzuki India avatar, has come under parallel attack for similar preferential treatment. Long accused of royalty structures that siphon significant portions of profit, the message from Indian auto captains is clear: when foreign giants, Korean or Japanese, enjoy duty arbitrage, technology-transfer loopholes and policy sweeteners, domestic firms bleed competitiveness.” Read more: Prabhu Chawla, New Indian Express

• Could Russian missiles help India counter its arch-rival’s Chinese weapons?

“India has reportedly signed a deal to buy Russian missiles that target support aircraft as its arch-rival Pakistan and China continue to integrate their aerial weapons profiles. Russia has cleared the export of around 300 R-37M ultra-long-range air-to-air missiles in a US$1.2 billion deal, according to media reports. Malaysia-based news platform Defence Security Asia said deliveries of the missiles could begin within 12 to 18 months. India is also developing its own Astra Mk 2 and Mk 3 missiles, which are expected to be ready to use around the same time… The missile can travel at six times the speed of sound and is designed to be launched from Russian Su-30MKI fighters, a mainstay of the Indian Air Force. Shounak Set, a research fellow with the South Asia programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said the R-37M could provide a “significant operational edge”. Russia has used the R-37M extensively in the war with Ukraine, as its range and hypersonic speed made any target difficult to evade, he said… “In a South Asian context, the R-37M missile shifts the focus from fighter jets to networks and can act as a force multiplier during short high-intensity conflicts, provided it is integrated with the appropriate array of radars, sensors and aircraft.” Last May, Indian and Pakistani forces fought a brief war over Kashmir, in which at least one Indian jet was shot down by a Chinese-made J-10C fighter.” Read more: Seong Hyeon Choi, South China Morning Post

• India’s Press Note 3 Gamble: Opening the FDI Door to China

“On March 10, 2026, India’s Union Cabinet approved amendments to Press Note 3, a regulation that mandated government approval on all foreign direct investment (FDI) from countries sharing a land border with India… The move was in the offing for a while, and was described as a “calibrated” one by India’s commerce minister earlier this year, aimed toward easing norms on investments from China. This amendment to Press Note 3 is not, therefore, a wholesale liberalization. But even calibrated shifts deserve scrutiny, particularly when they involve a country that has expanded its commercial presence in India at an extraordinary pace, all with a negligible investment footprint… The intellectual scaffolding for this decision was erected well before India’s Union Cabinet met. The 2023–2024 Economic Survey made a pointed argument that there were two ways India could benefit from the “China plus one” strategy that global companies were adopting: (i) integrating into China’s supply chain through trade, or (ii) attracting FDI from Chinese firms… The government’s case for liberalizing Press Note 3 rests on several interlocking assumptions, each of which warrants further examination… The first is that easing restrictions on minority, non-controlling Chinese stakes will unlock meaningful capital inflows from global funds into Indian start-ups and deep-technology firms. This is plausible in a narrow sense… The second assumption is that Chinese FDI will bring technology transfer, domestic value addition, and integration into global value chains. This assumption has its limits… The third assumption is that this move will not exacerbate the massive India–China trade deficit. Here, skepticism is warranted. India’s import bill from China is anchored in electronics, machinery, organic chemicals, and materials that are “difficult to substitute quickly”.” Read more: Konark Bhandari, Carnegie India

• ‘We agreed to stop buying oil from Iran, Russia… tariffs’: RSS’s Madhav expresses surprise at strain in India-US ties

“RSS leader and former BJP national general secretary has expressed surprise at the strain in India-US relations despite what he desired as New Delhi having agreed to a range of American demands — from tariffs to oil sourcing decisions. Questioning where India had fallen short in meeting American expectations, Madhav, speaking at a panel discussion in the US on Thursday, said, “We agreed to stop buying oil from Iran and Russia, facing so much criticism from the Opposition. We agreed to 50% tariffs.. In the new trade deal also, we agreed to 18% tariffs.” At the Hudson Institute in Washington, where RSS general secretary Dattatreya Hosabale also delivered a lecture, Madhav flagged anxiety within the Indian diaspora over remarks such as “hell hole” and “laptop-wielding charlatans”. While cautioning against reading the current phase as a breakdown, Madhav warned against complacency. “One may say it is a passing phase. (But) countries do not have the luxury to take four years as a passing phase,” he said… On the economic front, Madhav said the relationship had been hit, pointing to what he described as net negative FDI flows from the US and tensions over tariffs… However, he identified the people-to-people connect as the most worrying aspect.” Read more: Deeptiman Tiwary, Indian Express

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People & Politics:

• The Kerala Consensus

“Home to 35 million people (larger than Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Denmark combined), it has long been admired and studied across the world as a model of human development for its high levels of education, health, and civic engagement, combined with low income inequality. Moreover, Kerala is a heterogenous society, with religious diversity—25 percent of the population is Muslim, 20 percent is Christian, and 55 percent is Hindu—and many different caste and ethnic communities. Kerala’s accomplishments are even more remarkable because India is one of the most unequal countries on earth, and income inequality has consistently been worsening over the last two decades. Across the country, more than 10 percent of the population is below the Indian government’s poverty line; in Kerala, it’s less than 1 percent… This year it announced that it had eliminated the “extreme poverty” of the 64,006 most vulnerable families, including those who are homeless, lack assets, or have lost their main income earner through illness or death… How did a society segregated by caste, class, and religion become an egalitarian community? The answer has to do with food. During the Second World War, a rice famine threatened the region. Much of the rice consumed in Kerala was imported from Burma, which had been conquered by the Japanese. In Bengal, the British created famine conditions by hoarding rice and diverting grain for its war effort, causing the deaths of 3 million people. In Kerala, members of the newly formed Communist Party of India mobilized mass agitations across the region to prevent hoarding by speculators, establish local grain banks, and distribute rice through a rationing system that stretched into every village… Once in government, the Communists championed land reforms. They were not entirely successful in seizing and redistributing land, but they enforced existing federal laws to limit the size of landholdings and ensured tenants’ rights by registering sharecroppers.” Read more: Kushanava Choudhury, Dissent Magazine

• India’s delimitation battles are costing its poorest voters

“With Lok Sabha seats frozen to 1971 Census numbers, India has moved far from the principle of one person, one vote. Today, an MP in Bihar represents 3.1 million people, a Kerala MP only 1.75 million. The same vote cast in Bihar carries less weight than in Kerala. What are the consequences of moving away from the principle? Fertility does not fall because of family planning programmes. It falls with increases in income and female education, and with decreases in infant, child and maternal mortality rates. These long-run development outcomes happened earlier in the richer southern and western states. Poorer regions and states saw fertility fall later. As a result, the poor are underrepresented in Parliament, because poorer Indians disproportionately live in states that are developing more slowly. Richer southern states contribute more tax revenue than they receive, and the poorer northern states receive more than they contribute… The poorer, mostly northern states accepted the other side of the bargain for five decades. They lose seats relative to their population, but the revenue transfers cushioned the loss. Yet the groups bearing this cost within these states —the poor, the young, the Muslims, the SCs and STs whose fertility fell last — are not represented in campaigns against the freeze. Politicians in the north have been content with the revenue-for-representation trade-off. Apportioning seats strictly to current population numbers, once we have a Census, without other changes, shifts political power northward, while fiscal centralisation keeps economic power in Delhi. Southern states lose both political power and, as a consequence, their share of revenue. The freeze is not a flaw in the system. It is the system.” Read more: Shruti Rajagopalan, Times of India

• The crisis of urban electoral disenfranchisement

“The former of the Constitution, Dr. B. R. Ambedkar, while presenting the Constitution, stated: “From one person, one vote, it should to one person, one economic unit.” However, this spirit has not materialised and the divide among people has widened… It may sound uncomfortable, but the fact of the matter is that over the last few decades, the urban population has been subject to systematic disenfranchisement. The debate over the recent Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in contemporary times serves to reinforce and further substantiate the marginalisation and continuing disenfranchisement of urban voters… Most of those living in slums and informal settlements are also among the disenfranchised. It is no great surprise that, according to the World Bank, around 40% of India’s urban population currently lives in slums. Another major challenge to the right to adult franchise is the compromised secrecy of the electoral process. In the current electronic voting machine system, the booth-wise revelation of votes poses a serious challenge to the confidential nature of the franchise… Why will SIR hit the urban poor the most? Dalits, marginalised sections, and ethnic and religious minorities, apart from the economically poor and unorganised sector workers, were among the groups with the highest rates of deletion in urban India - a process that is still ongoing. This represents a dual burden for these sections: on one hand, they are unable to get themselves registered as voters, and on the other, those who were already registered are now facing a high incidence of deletions.” Read more: Tikender Singh Panwar, The Hindu

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Tech:

• Spacetech startups spot promise in defence apps; it’s road of tough choices

“Indian spacetech startups are shifting focus from purely commercial use cases to defence-led applications. Increasing geopolitical tensions and slow enterprise adoption are making them pivot to government and defence contracts. But in doing so, founders say they are being forced to make tough choices on which countries to work with and which ones to avoid. Founders and investors told ET that startups are simply following demand. Defence offers clearer budgets, faster procurement, and immediate revenue unlike commercial markets, which require scaling constellations. That takes time. Companies have repositioned their technology and started research and development catering to newer use cases… Bengaluru-based Digantara Industries, which began with space debris tracking, has expanded into surveillance and intelligence applications. “Today, around 80% of our revenue comes from government and defence, with commercial only a small portion,” said founder Anirudh Sharma, adding that this started happening during the Russia-Ukraine war and continued with Operation Sindoor as demand for tracking space assets surged… For PierSight, the shift is less about product and more about customers willing to pay early. Defence clients engage even with one satellite capacity, while commercial customers wait for full-scale deployment or constellations, said founder Gaurav Seth. Pixxel has also evolved from a purely environmental-focused satellite startup and now serves defence customers. Its hyperspectral imaging capabilities allow camouflage detection, battle damage assessment and detection of illegal mining and soil disturbances, which can signal unauthorised activity in remote area.” Read more: Puran Choudhary, Economic Times

Chart of the week:

Western sanctions have diverted some oil flows to China and India (y-axis: million barrels)

Source: Kpler via Financial Times

Bonus:

• Whither A Republic’s Scientific Temper

““Scientific temper” has never been just another term for the Indian republic. Enshrined in the Indian constitution through the 42nd amendment in 1976 and popularised before that in India by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru as an intellectual orientation and a civic ethos, scientific temper was imagined as a moral infrastructure for democratic life and a hopeful bulwark against dogma, obscurantism, and the inertia of inherited inequalities. Today, however, it rarely evokes the ethical urgency that it once carried. It merely lingers as a vaguely pedagogical trope, invoked occasionally in textbooks and science day speeches…For Nehru, scientific temper involved science as a civilisational ethos that promised to get rid of superstition, dogma, and caste-bound thinking from the Indian society… Yet, Nehru’s project was also profoundly statist. His speeches at the Indian Science Congress sessions repeatedly linked scientific temper with national planning, institution-building, and state-led modernisation… The wanton blurring of science and mythology by way of public speeches claiming ancient Indian origins of plastic surgery or interplanetary travel reveals how scientific temper has been strategically evacuated of content and repurposed for cultural nationalism. This appropriation performs an insidious manoeuvre, subsuming science into a nativist historiography that prizes symbolic assertion over empirical accountability… In the age of algorithmic governance, scientific temper must extend its analytic range and interrogate the infrastructures that shape and circulate it.” Read more: Rishabh Kachroo, Public Understanding of Science blog

Watch/listen:

• China’s Tech Grip Dents India’s Goals | The Big Take Asia podcast host Oanh Ha in conversation with Alisha Sachdev | Bloomberg

• How Assam's political map was changed to BJP's advantage | Scroll India

• India to Purchase Fertilizer at Nearly Double Pre-War Price

“India, the world’s top importer of urea, has agreed to buy the nitrogen-based fertilizer at sharply higher prices than in a previous tender as the Middle East conflict disrupts supplies and pushes global benchmarks higher. Indian Potash Ltd., which imports the crop nutrient for the government, will secure 1.5 million tons for delivery on the west coast at $935 per ton, while another 1 million tons will be delivered on the east coast at $959 per ton, according to people familiar with the matter. The offers are almost 90% higher than what India agreed to pay in a tender before the start of the conflict, said the people, who asked not to be named due to the commercial sensitivity of the information… A fertilizer ministry spokesperson didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking comment… The South Asian nation’s urea production relies heavily on natural gas, much of it from the Middle East and used to make ammonia, a key feedstock for the fertilizer. Supply disruptions following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced some regional producers to idle plants last month. Indian authorities are now in talks with major producers and exporters to secure direct shipments of nitrogen-based and phosphatic fertilizers. Global urea prices have surged since the war began, with nearly 45% of global supply moving through the Persian Gulf, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.” Read more: Pratik Parija and Siddhartha Singh, Bloomberg

• Criticality for India’s PFBR

“India’s 500 MWe Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) has achieved first criticality (start of controlled fission chain reaction) after meeting all the stipulations of the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB), which had issued clearance after a rigorous review of safety of the plant systems. This marks “a historic step in providing long-term energy security and advancing indigenous nuclear technology capabilities,” according to a Science Ministry press release. The technology development and design of PFBR, a sodium-cooled fast reactor, was indigenously done by the Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR), an R&D Centre of the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE). It was built & commissioned by Bharatiya Nabhikiya Vidyut Nigam Ltd (BHAVINI), a Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) under the DAE… With the achievement of first criticality, India moves closer to realising its three-stage nuclear power programme. Fast breeder reactors (FBRs) represents stage two and forms the vital bridge between the current fleet of pressurised heavy water reactors (stage one) and the future deployment of thorium-based reactors (stage three), leveraging India’s abundant thorium resources for long-term clean energy generation… capabilities in nuclear fuel cycle technologies, advanced materials, reactor physics and large-scale engineering.” Read more: Nuclear Engineering International

• Indian LNG importers scoop up spot shipments after prices recede

“India’s liquefied natural gas importers have accelerated purchases from the spot market, taking advantage of a recent dip in prices, as the country looks to ease a supply crunch triggered by the war in West Asia. Bharat Petroleum Corp., Gail India Ltd. and Gujarat State Petroleum Corp. bought shipments for delivery between April and June at below $16 per million British thermal units, according to traders with knowledge of the matter… The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on the world’s largest LNG export plant in Qatar, have disrupted a fifth of the world’s supply of the super-chilled fuel. India is among the hardest-hit consumers, with LNG deliveries down 14% compared with the same time last year on a 30-day moving average, ship data shows. The latest move comes after spot LNG prices fell to the lowest level in over a month. Prices more than doubled after the war began, rising to roughly $25 per million Btu and forcing Indian buyers to curb purchases and reduce supplies to industrial customers. Still, prices remain about 50% higher than pre-war levels.” Read more: The Hindu Businessline

• Defying The Law It Must Uphold—Wildlife Board’s Decisions Violate Wildlife Act & Supreme Court Orders

“In January 2021, two Protected Areas in the Andaman & Nicobar Islands—Galathea Bay Wildlife Sanctuary and the Megapode Sanctuary—were denotified (here and here) to make way for a mega infrastructure project on Great Nicobar Island… The Standing Committee of the National Board for Wildlife (SC-NBWL), which recommended the denotifications, does not have statutory authority to de-notify Protected Areas. A 13 November 2000 Supreme Court order prohibits any dereservation or denotification of forest land, wildlife sanctuaries, or national parks without the Court’s prior approval. In responses to right-to-information (RTI) queries filed by the first author with the ministry of environment, forests and climate change (MoEFCC) said on 7 November 2025 that “no information is available in this regard”, indicating that no such approval was obtained… A closer examination of the committee’s records—minutes of 58 meetings, along with responses obtained through a series of RTIs filed with the MoEFCC—indicate that the functioning of the SC-NBWL departs from its statutory mandate and established conservation framework… Most approvals for diversions granted by the SC‑NBWL violate the 1972 WPA, as we reported in the first part of the investigation.” Read more: Prakriti Srivastava And Prerna Singh Bindra, Article 14

• Humid heat emerging as India’s most dangerous climate threat, with Kerala at the frontline, shows new study

“A recent study published in the journal Climate Dynamics has offered the clearest explanation yet of how the threat of moist heat, a combination of high temperature and high humidity that interferes with the body’s ability to cool itself, is unfolding across India, especially Kerala. Led by Akshay Deoras at the University of Reading in the UK, the research draws on more than 80 years of weather data to show how the southwest monsoon itself governs the timing and geography of moist heatwaves. “Our research shows for the first time that the monsoon is the key driver of where and when this deadly risk develops,” Deoras said… Kerala, with its long coastline, dense vegetation and monsoon driven climate, has always lived with humidity. But the baseline is shifting. Warmer days are now accompanied by warmer nights, reducing the body’s ability to recover. Urban areas are retaining heat for longer… The new study places Kerala within a larger national pattern shaped by the internal rhythms of the monsoon… For communities that depend on outdoor labour, the implications are immediate. Fishworkers returning from sea report intense fatigue even during early hours. Construction workers in urban areas describe conditions where dehydration sets in rapidly despite frequent breaks.” Read more: K A Shaji, Down to Earth

• Amara Raja plans to begin bulk production of EV cells in 2027

“A manufacturing ecosystem for lithium-ion cells is slowly coming up in India, but electric vehicle makers should not expect an immediate cost windfall, according to Vikram Gourineni, executive director at Amara Raja Energy & Mobility. Locally produced cells will carry a minimum 15% price premiums over imports in the near term, as it takes time to create a meaningful upstream ecosystem from raw materials to components that China spent two decades building, Gourineni told ET. Until domestic cell makers achieve a scale of 8-10 GWh and a supporting supply chain develops around them, the economics simply will not work in the favour of EV makers, he said. Amara Raja is targeting 2027 for its first bulk production of lithium-ion cells, becoming the second company after Ola Electric to commence local cell production… The company will take a graduated approach to scaling. Cell production will begin this year at a megawatt-hour scale, with commercial samples supplied to Indian customers for qualification… In a significant strategic pivot, Amara Raja has revised its capacity allocation across the planned 16 GWh, moving from a largely mobility-focused plan to an equal split between mobility and energy storage solutions (ESS).” Read more: Shally Mohile, Economic Times

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Economy:

• India slips to 6th in GDP ranking for now; to reach 4th by FY28

“A downward revision in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) following the base-tear revision and a sharp depreciation of the rupee have proved to be a slippage for India’s position in global ranking. The country has slipped to sixth rank in 2025 (FY26) and 2026 (FY27), falling behind the UK after claiming the fifth position for three straight years, showed the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest data. At current prices, India’s GDP is estimated to be $3.92 trillion in 2025 (FY26) and $4.15 trillion in 2026 (FY27)… The slippage follows the government’s announcement that India had become the fourth-largest economy. The IMF in its October 2026 update had a more optimistic projection for India, in which the country was seen overtaking Japan in FY27 and did not fall behind the UK in recent years. The projections have been revised downwards as India’s revamped GDP, which saw the base year updated from 2011-12 to 2022-23, led to a smaller economy due to a correction in overestimation… The downward revision is evident across years, with India’s GDP estimates in the April update consistently lower than those in October — for instance, the 2027 projection has been cut to $4.58 trillion from $4.96 trillion.” Read more: Payal Bhattacharya and Rupanjal Chauhan, Mint

• Maggi to Maruti, war upends production schedules, retail prices

“Apart from the fuel supply and price shock, the West Asia war has impacted a wide range of items from popular fast-moving consumer items such as instant noodles, juice, milk packs, beverages to automotive components for the country’s largest carmaker. While constrained supply and higher prices of packaging materials have led to a slower offtake at many production units of these FMCG firms, energy conservation efforts at some of these plants have resulted in underutilised capacity… Higher packaging costs and issues with supply of plastic caps and bottles have brought trouble for the beverages industry as well. Key players in the mineral water bottle space have hiked prices for distributors and resellers… As companies attempt to recalibrate pricing of their products, many FMCG makers are also opting for reduction in grammage of their products, known more popularly as ‘shrinkflation’… The Ministry of Heavy Industries has also urged ‌companies to ⁠shift ⁠factory operations from oil-based fuels to electricity and to use recycled aluminium or alternative materials as shortages and costs rise, according to a March 25 advisory reported by Reuters… Price hikes have also been attempted by manufacturers of white goods such as TV sets and air conditioners, which had earlier seen a bump-up in consumption demand after a sharp reduction in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate from 28% to 18% in September 2025.” Read more: Aanchal Magazine, Indian Express

• India’s exports to FTA partners fall for third straight quarter: NITI Aayog data

“Amid India’s agressive push for global trade integration, the existing free trade agreements (FTA) are not translating to higher exports, as a NITI Aayog report on Monday showed that India’s exports to FTA partners contracted by 7% year-on-year during the October-December quarter of the last financial year. The exports to FTA partners had slipped by 9% during the first quarter of FY26 and 7% during the second quarter. India’s trade performance with FTA countries assumes significance as New Delhi’s trade has deepened with preferential trading partners. The share of trade with FTA partners has increased significantly from 4.6% in 2006 to 28.8% in 2024, indicating a more than six-fold rise, the NITI Aayog Trade Watch quarterly report showed. “India’s exports with its FTA partner countries in !3 FY26 stood at $40.26 billion, reflecting a decline of 7% y-o-y, indicating some moderation in export performance across key partner countries. In contrast, total imports from FTA partners increased by 6% y-o-y, reaching $70.98 billion during the quarter,” it said.” Read more: Ravi Dutta Mishra, Indian Express

• India’s fertiliser output falls to a five-year low in March

“Fertiliser production in India fell to a five-year low in March, reflecting input shortages triggered by the ongoing war in West Asia, even as the combined index of eight core industries (popularly called core sector index) contracted by 0.4% on an annual basis, the weakest reading since August 2024 when it shrank 1.5%. The data, released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on Monday, showed that if fertilisers were excluded from the index—their weight is just 2.63%—the overall index would have remained flat instead of contracting. The March contraction in the index was driven by four sectors: fertilisers, crude oil, coal and electricity. Fertiliser output plunged 24.6% from a year earlier, by far the sharpest fall among the eight industries. In absolute terms, the fertiliser production index came in at 95.7 in March 2026, the lowest this value has been since April 2021, when it came in at 88.3… Natural gas is both fuel and feedstock for fertiliser plants. Its supplies had to be reduced to maintain no disruption in PNG (Piped Natural Gas) and CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) supplies for cooking and automobiles. When read with the fact that the March production data shows a fall of about 25%, largely in sync with the temporary 30% reduction in natural gas supplies for fertiliser plants, an enhancement in gas supplies in April should help revive production.” Read more: Sreedev Krishnakumar, Hindustan Times

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Foreign Policy & Security:

• India must draw a red line on U.S. unilateral sanctions

“The dust — nuclear and otherwise — has yet to settle on how the United States-Israel war against Iran will ultimately end, but its impact on India’s growth projections is evident… India is by no means the only country thus affected, but as the world’s most populous nation, it is bound to feel the effects more acutely. Given the little attention that the U.S. has paid to India’s economic concerns, it is surprising that the Narendra Modi government continues to pay heed to U.S. unilateral sanctions amid the war. This month, as temporary waivers on many of those sanctions come up for renewal, it is time for New Delhi to unequivocally denounce them and declare that it will no longer abide by them. A cursory list of U.S. sanctions with which India has partially or fully complied is both illustrative and eye-opening. Since May 2019, India has not purchased any Iranian or Venezuelan oil following U.S. President Donal Trump’s demand for ‘zeroing out’… There is little evidence that yielding to unilateral U.S. sanctions curbs its appetite, as India’s experience since 2019 shows; it leads to additional demands for compliance… Had India not complied with sanctions against the Chabahar port, built rail and road infrastructure in Iran, and not curtailed its plans for the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) through Iran’s Bandar Abbas, it may have had connectivity in place that could have reduced its dependence on imports coming through the Strait of Hormuz today. Moreover, India’s compliance with U.S. international sanctions has further weakened the rules-based international order and the UN’s multilateral mandate.” Read more: Suhasini Haidar, The Hindu

• India to defend its case in the US Section 301 probes this week

“India will submit its defence early this week in the two US Trade Representative (USTR) Section 301 investigations, which New Delhi believes are “factually baseless”, sources said. The government is set to argue that no Indian policies in the targeted areas were designed to, or did, harm US commercial interests in its bid to come clean in the investigation and avoid additional tariffs and other penalties… On March 11, 2026, the USTR launched a probe into structural excess capacity especially targeting manufacturing sectors where India and other countries covered in the probe maintain a trade surplus. These include specifically steel, automotive products, apparel/footwear, electrical equipment and pharmaceuticals. The US alleged these policies displace US domestic production… “India’s defense is likely to focus on the legal requirements of specificity and determination under Section 301, with New Delhi likely to argue that the USTR has not mentioned specific policies or procedural inactions that demonstrably harm US commercial interests. In the investigation on excess capacity, merely having a trade surplus is not evidence of irreparable injury,” the source said. While concerns on use of forced-labour imports is a genuine one, but the probe against India is misguided and without any factual basis, the source added.” Read more: Amiti Sen, The Hindu Businessline

• India’s Oil Security Strategy: Structural Vulnerabilities and Strategic Choices

“India is a highly oil-dependent state, making it vulnerable to global price shocks. Recent developments, including U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, U.S. tariffs on countries trading with Iran, and the escalation of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, have revealed critical gaps in India’s oil security strategy… Faced with sudden disruptions to its oil imports, India has four options: return to purchasing Russian oil; diversify beyond the Strait of Hormuz; enhance domestic strategic reserves; and develop a long-term oil security strategy, including measures for energy transition… India is primarily dependent on five countries for oil: Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the United States. These present distinct advantages such as discounted prices, short voyage durations, oil-grade suitability, and long-term supply contracts and investments… India must implement a renewed energy security strategy to better address such geopolitical and economic disruptions… While these measures are critical, India lacks a distinct oil security strategy that will enable a gradual shift to renewable energy to meet domestic demand. Dedicated efforts must address several priorities—expanding reserves and SPR facilities, permitting private and foreign company participation in Indian reserves, and enabling long-term supply contracts to reduce price volatility.” Read more: Vrinda Sahai, Carnegie India

• Why China is building villages near LAC

“On March 26, China’s State Council announced the creation of a new county-equivalent to a district-level administrative unit in the Chinese political-administrative system — in Xinjiang, called Cenling. Its creation is the result of administrative restructuring of the Kargilik county (Yecheng county, in Chinese) in the western half of Aksai Chin under the Kashgar prefecture. India’s Ministry of External Affairs waited more than two weeks before responding to questions from the media to say that it “categorically rejected any mischievous attempts by the Chinese side to assign fictitious names to places which form part of the territory of India.” New Delhi’s official statement was perhaps a little more strongly worded than its response in January 2025 following a similar creation, in December 2024, of two new counties, He’an and Hekang, in the Hotan prefecture in the eastern half of Aksai Chin… The formal announcement of the creation of the Cenling county is the culmination of a year-long preparation to create new villages and townships, including the new county seat, Xinhua town… The forced settlement of nomadic populations as well as the influx of the Han from other parts of China in newly constituted administrative units, including xiaokang cun - newly-settled or rejuvenated villages - along the LAC have several long-term implications for India… While the Indian government has responded to China’s development of xiaokang villages with it own Vibrant Villages Programme, it needs to do a better job of responding to Chinese administrative changes on occupied Indian territory than mere rhetoric.” Read more: Devendra Kumar and Jabin T. Jacob, The Tribune

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People & Politics:

• Labor Unrest Serves a Warning to India’s Investors

“India has long looked away from the tinder-box that is industrial labor relations. That’s because its factories have mostly been peaceful, despite enormous levels of inequality. This week, however, violent protests broke out in a Delhi suburb over poor working conditions, ending that serenity. The many companies that have invested in the satellite city of Noida — including Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Microsoft Corp., as well as manufacturing giants like Samsung Electronics Co. — will worry that labor relations are finally breaking down… The immediate provocation for workers’ anger in Noida, which is in UP, was news that the Haryana government had hiked minimum wages there by 35% to $160 a month. Protestors complained to the media that those who worked in UP, in contrast, had their pay increased over the past decade at half the speed of Haryana or Delhi. Meanwhile, the cost of living spiked upwards — driven most recently by the scarcity of cooking gas following the Iran war… Officials needed to act quickly. UP, India’s most populous state but also among its poorest, long had a reputation for anarchy; Adityanath, since he took over as chief minister in 2017, has focused on repairing that image, believing that would lure investors… State officials somehow managed to make the message even worse than it was. In an effort to downplay the protests, they claimed that it was a plot by Pakistan-based terrorists. Few will believe that theory. If that’s the default reaction from the Indian establishment when anything goes wrong, then it has seriously misjudged what international investors want to hear… Workers aren’t asking for too much. The labor codes can be made fair if they applied equally; they need to be easy to implement, allow for the ability to hire and fire — but also ensure secure workplaces and some form of accountability for employers.” Read more: Mihir Sharma, Bloomberg

• Residential Segregation and Unequal Access to Local Public Services in India: Evidence from 1.5m Neighborhoods

“Residential segregation of marginalized groups is a well-established driver of persistent inequality in wealthy countries. Segregated communities tend to have worse access to employment networks, public services, and social capital, and face more entrenched stereotypes in the broader population… In this descriptive paper, the authors employ a novel dataset to reveal settlement and segregation patterns of marginalized groups across Indian cities and villages, and the relationship between these settlement patterns and access to public services. They focus on the segregation of members of Scheduled Castes (SCs), often called Dalits or (previously) Untouchables, and of Muslims… To conduct their analysis, the authors link three administrative datasets: India’s Population Census (2011), the Socioeconomic and Caste Census (2012), and the Economic Census (2013), covering 63% of India’s population. Together these allow neighborhood-level description of demographics, infrastructure access (water, sewerage, electricity), and the presence of public and private schools and medical facilities… Establishing these baseline facts is a necessary first step toward causal work… Muslims and SCs exhibit notably high levels of residential segregation. By way of international comparison, their segregation levels fall slightly below those of Black Americans and non-white people in England and Wales but exceed those of minority groups in almost every other country for which comparable data exists… Muslims are relatively more segregated in cities than in rural areas compared with SCs; relatedly, SC urban segregation has marginally declined.” Read more: Anjali Adukia, Sam Asher, Kritarth Jha, Paul Novosad, and Brandon Tan, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics

• Millions in India stripped of vote before critical state election, as government seeks to ‘purify’ electoral roll

“Millions of people in the Indian state of West Bengal have been stripped of their vote ahead of a critical state election this week, after a controversial electoral revision described by critics as a “bloodless political genocide” and mass disenfranchisement of minorities. In West Bengal, a total of 9.1 million names have been deleted from the register, more than 10% of the electorate. While many were dead or duplicates, about 2.7 million people have challenged their expulsions, but still been removed… The divisive exercise by the central Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) government to “purify” the electoral roll – in the words of home minister Amit Shah – has led to a chorus of fury. The drawing up of a new electoral register has been carried out at unprecedented speed, ahead of the West Bengal state elections which will begin on Thursday… According to experts and organisations, Muslims and other religious minorities have been disproportionately expunged from the electoral roll in West Bengal, leading to allegations of deliberate targeting and persecution. “As per our research, religion has been the biggest differentiator,” said Sabir Ahamed, who leads Sabar institute which has been closely monitoring and documenting the cases based on official data… In some Muslim-majority constituencies, almost half the voters have been deleted, including those who have documents to show they are born and bred Indian citizens and either they, or their parents, were on the 2002 voter roll, the cut off point for voter eligibility.” Read more: Hannah Ellis-Petersen and Aakash Hassan, The Guardian

• Noida violence signals failure of Labour Codes

“The ferocity and the suddenness of the recent workers protests in Noida took many by surprise. Agitated industrial workers took to the streets in leaderless throngs, overturning and burning police SUVs, blocking traffic and destroying public property. This scale and militancy of industrial protests have not been seen in years… A war in the Persian Gulf, thousands of miles away, made the simmering discontent boil over. The sudden shortage of domestic gas and the spike in prices of alternative fuel and food items brought these folks to the end of their tether. The immediate trigger was a recent 35% hike in minimum wages in Haryana. The UP government’s response was heavy-handed. More than 300 workers were arrested and many beaten up. Blame for the violence was heaped on ‘external instigators’ and ‘Pakistani handlers operating through WhatsApp groups’… These flashes of industrial action show the Union’s government’s long-term legislative solution of annulling 29 labour laws and creating 4 Labour Codes in their place, is not working… The broad-brush arrangement worked out was -- while workers should have access to a minimum wage, basic social and occupational security and health assistance, the legal tools that supported unionization, industrial action, recourse to labour courts and other enforcement measures should be minimized and discouraged… What we are therefore now witnessing is spontaneous, raw and violent protests. There is no organised trade union leadership, and collective bargaining has been stamped out. In its place workers are resorting to collective action hoping for instant results.” Read more: Gurbir Singh, New Indian Express

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Tech:

• New digital rules risk diluting Supreme Court safeguards

“Over the past month, several internet users have received notifications from X or Instagram that some of their posts, or even complete accounts, have been censored and blocked. Facebook pages with millions of followers have been banned. It’s not just users. Supabase, a service developers use for building apps, found itself blocked in India, without notice… In March 2015, the Supreme Court delivered what remains the foundational verdict on online speech in this country. In Shreya Singhal v. Union of India, the court struck down the breathtakingly overbroad section 66A of the IT Act, which had been used to jail people for Facebook posts. But the case did something equally important that gets less attention. The court strengthened the safe harbour provision under section 79, which protects platforms from liability for what users say online… Crucially, the court said that the affected user, if identifiable, needed to be informed and given a hearing. In the eleven years since the judgment, these protections have been dismantled, and a digital censorship infrastructure has emerged. First, amendments to the IT Rules in 2021 expanded the scope of section 79, bringing digital news outlets under a provision that doesn’t regulate them… Two, the home ministry’s Sahyog portal functions, without parliamentary sanction, as a hotline from govt to platforms for takedown orders under Section 79… Three, the amendments to IT Rules in Feb 2026 compressed the compliance window for blocking orders from 36 to three hours, the shortest in the world. News reports suggest a further reduction to one hour… Four, the architecture has widened laterally: more govt agencies now have the power to block speech under section 69A.” Read more: Apar Gupta and Nikhil Pahwa, Internet Freedom Foundation

• How India is funding Silicon Valley’s rise

“Silicon Valley’s earnings calls are already answering the most important question about artificial intelligence: where the money ends up. There’s an undeniable sense of triumph in India’s tech ecosystem right now, but we might be celebrating a digital victory we haven’t actually won. If you look across the country, the physical transformation is staggering. We are investing massive capital in hyper-scale data centre parks in Navi Mumbai. Legacy IT giants are weaving AI into enterprise networks and digital public infrastructure. The government has stepped in to subsidise tens of thousands of GPUs (graphics processing units) for startups. We are doing everything right on the hardware front. But beneath the ribbon-cutting and the applause lies an uncomfortable economic reality: India’s much-hyped AI boom is directly funding Silicon Valley. In effect, we have signed up for a “Token Tax”. Every single time a developer in Bengaluru uses an AI coding assistant, or an e-commerce app personalises a shopping feed, or a local bank automates a customer query in Hindi, a micro-payment leaves the country. We are pouring concrete, laying the fibre-optic cables, and buying the servers. But the actual intelligence — the cognitive engine running on top of all that infrastructure — remains foreign-owned.” Read more: Nishant Sahdev, The Hindu Businessline

Chart of the week:

Strategic oil inventories in select countries (as of December 2025)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Bonus:

• Review of ‘A History of India’s Green Revolution: Reign of Technocracy’

“Do scholars need another book about the Green Revolution? In the past twenty-six years, books by Kristin L. Ahlberg (Transplanting the Great Society: Lyndon Johnson and Food for Peace, 2008), Nick Cullather (The Hungry World: America’s Cold War Battle Against Poverty in Asia, 2013), and Benjamin Robert Siegel (Hungry Nation: Food, Famine, and the Making of Modern India, 2018) have documented how a postcolonial India went from famine to feast through a mix of already established methods (devoting more land to farming) as well as newer techniques, such as high-yielding variety (HYV) seeds… With so much great Green Revolution literature available to scholars, how does Prakash Kumar’s A History of India’s Green Revolution: Reign of Technocracy stand out? It does so by focusing on three particular Indian states: Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Tarai, which is now part of Uttarakhand… Building off his impressive 2012 publication, Indigo Plantations and Science in Colonial India, Kumar has connected and fleshed out the many decades of scientific research and technological improvements made in India (both pre- and postcolonial) and the work done by Indians themselves… In chapter 3, Kumar lays out how Independent India struggled with implementing genuine land reform campaigns. Despite national leaders like Jawaharlal Nehru and their interest in, even preference for, left-leaning economic planning, state and local leaders were often aligned with landowners who welcomed independence but not an overhaul of the society that they benefited from… Kumar concludes his excellent book by reminding his readers that while food was plentiful in post-Green Revolution India, poverty remained.” Read more: Marc Reyes, H-Environment

• Why nearly every farmer who grows these chile peppers is a woman

“It’s a searing hot day in Mattiyarenthal village, in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. In March, temperatures regularly touch highs from 95 F to 105 F. The sharp, pungent scent of chile peppers clings to the air. It’s just one of hundreds of villages in this area that grow this crop. Pandiamma is surrounded by the carpets of deep, cherry-shaped mundu, a distinctive variety of red chile grown in this region. The farmers sow seeds from October to November — monsoon season — and harvest the peppers from January until May, keeping a watchful eye over each batch as it lays out to dry for five to ten days. “Growing chile has always been a woman’s job,” Pandiamma says. That’s true not only for the thousands of chile farmers but for all farmers in the region. “More than 70% of agricultural activities in this region have always been carried out by women farmers,” says Vallal Kannan, a program coordinator for Krishi Vigyan Kendra, a government-run agricultural center… The women farmers agree that in the chile pepper fields, the demanding nature of the work discourages men. You need to crouch over the chile plant, plucking each pod by hand, and then dry and sort it, they say. And the plant is seasonal, which means that most chile farmers will find themselves out of work after six months… In a good year, one kilo of top quality chiles — around 2.2 pounds — fetches a little over 300 rupees — the equivalent of about $3. During a good harvest season, the average woman farmer whose family owns an acre of land earns around $2,000 annually.” Read more: Kamala Thiagarajan, NPR

• India’s top solar state has renewable projects of about 60 GW awaiting transmission links

“India’s top solar energy-generating state of Rajasthan has clean energy projects of capacity amounting to ​about 60 gigawatt (GW) awaiting transmission links as planners struggle ‌to keep pace with a rapid build-out, a regulatory filing showed. The problem underscores a critical challenge for India in its effort to nearly double its ​non-fossil based power generation to 500 GW by 2030 ​as the systems carry electricity to other states from ⁠renewable‑rich regions such as Rajasthan… The western desert state has 179 GW of renewable energy potential, with more than 85% of ​projects clustered in its four districts of Barmer, Bikaner, Jaisalmer ​and Jodhpur, the April 10 filing showed… The issue was highlighted after electricity regulators told Saurya Urja Company of Rajasthan Ltd, which ​is developing a 400-megawatt solar park in Bikaner, ​it ⁠could withdraw its connectivity application and recover bank guarantees if needed. The ruling by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) came in response to challenges ⁠in ​planning transmission the company faced.” Read more: Sethuraman N R, Reuters

• Oil Shock Bringing India’s EV Transition to a Crossroads

“India’s electric mobility transition is no longer a linear story of climate ambition and technological progress. It now sits at the intersection of geopolitical oil disruptions, fiscal trade-offs, tax policy evolution, and electoral strategy… The sharp decline in crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a supply shock that extends beyond short-term price volatility. For India—one of the world’s largest oil importers—this disruption directly affects energy security, import bills, inflation dynamics, and fiscal balances… Crucially, this episode reinforces a long-standing strategic concern: India’s mobility system is heavily exposed to external shocks… Officially, petrol and diesel prices are fully deregulated in India (petrol was deregulated in June 2010, while diesel was deregulated in October 2014). This gives OMCs a free hand to make the retail prices of petrol and diesel cost-reflective, meaning that with the rise in crude oil import price, OMCs can hike the retail oil price to prevent their outright losses. However, the current surge in import prices has not yet translated into higher retail prices… According to ICICI Securities, OMCs are now facing a loss of about ₹13.50 per litre on the retail sale of diesel and ₹1 per litre on petrol… Skyrocketing oil prices raise the operating costs of ICE vehicles, which should significantly improve EV competitiveness. However, the transition does not seem automatic. With retail petrol and diesel prices maintained at the pre-crisis level despite elevated global oil prices, the operating cost advantage of EVs remains muted.” Read more: Shyamasis Das, Centre for Social and Economic Progress

• The Indo-Gangetic Plain’s heat crisis is a governance failure, not just a climate one

“In the summer of 2024, Uttar Pradesh did not just face a heatwave — it endured the longest stretch of extreme heat India had recorded since 2010. Temperatures across the state’s plains breached 40°C for an entire month… The science of heat stress in the Indo-Gangetic Plain is settled. What remains dangerously unsettled is the governance. Researchers, meteorologists, and public health experts have spent two decades generating data, projections, and warnings. Yet the institutional machinery designed to translate that knowledge into protection — Heat Action Plans, disaster relief funds, and early warning systems — continues to fail the people most exposed. India’s heat crisis is real; but the deeper crisis is political and administrative… The structural problem is that most Heat Action Plans in India lack vulnerability mapping — the identification of which communities, occupational groups, and geographies face the highest risk within a district… India’s disaster finance system operates through two principal channels: the State Disaster Response Fund (SDRF) and the National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF), constituted under the Disaster Management Act of 2005… The current notified list includes twelve categories — cyclone, drought, earthquake, flood, landslide, and others — but heatwave is absent… Heatwaves in the Indo-Gangetic Plain now kill more people annually than most notified disasters. The 15th Finance Commission’s refusal to add heat to the notified list reflects a fiscal calculus, not a scientific one.” Read more: Vikas Choudhary, Down to Earth

• ONGC floats $20 b global tender for deepwater rigs

“Oil and Natural Gas Corp is likely to spend as much as $18-20 billion to hire deep-water drilling rigs for what would be its biggest ever oil exploration programme, people familiar with the matter said. ONGC last month issued a tender for the rigs, as the state-run company seeks to step up hydrocarbon exploration as part of the government's Samudra Manthan mission that aims to boost the country's energy security. A dozen domestic and international drilling companies attended a pre-bid meeting that ONGC held in Mumbai on March 20, the people said… ONGC did not respond to an email seeking comment till press time Tuesday. In addition to working on the KG Basin block off the east coast, ONGC has also commenced ultra-deep-water drilling operations in the Andamans… The tender floated in February seeks bids from experienced offshore drilling contractors under an international competitive bidding process.” Read more: Kalpana Pathak, Economic Times

• Ecological debate over iron ore halts mining bid in tiger landscape

“After weeks of protests and hunger strikes by activists and concerned local residents, the Maharashtra government temporarily halted further action on the Lohardongri iron ore mining project in the Bramhapuri forest division of Chandrapur district, which had ecologists and environmentalists in a bind for months… What truly concerns residents is the environmental cost of the project, including a potential rise in negative interactions with tigers. Chandrapur district of Maharashtra is the epicentre of rising human–tiger interactions, often resulting in fatalities. Mongabay-India visited the conflict areas in late 2024 to report on this, and found that a staggering 111 human deaths from tiger attacks were reported in 2022–2023, with 59 deaths already recorded in 2023–2024. The latest official numbers are awaited… Another concern raised by environmentalists is the potential spike in infrastructure such as access roads and other associated facilities, along with increased heavy vehicle movement to facilitate open-cast mining… From an economic perspective, Pingle shares that the project makes little sense. Human–wildlife conflict already imposes a significant burden on the state, with compensation of about ₹25 lakh paid per human death. Any increase in conflict due to habitat disruption would further escalate these costs.” Read more: Arathi Menon, Mongabay India

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Economy:

• China’s Control Over Tech Is Threatening India’s Manufacturing Dreams

“Interviews with over a dozen insiders across India’s battery, EV and electronics manufacturing ecosystem — who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information — highlight how critical up-and-coming sectors are even more dependent on China now, despite billions of dollars in investment under the Make in India initiative… “China’s curbs on core manufacturing technologies aren’t India-specific but the effect on India is likely disproportionate,” said Michael Deng, geoeconomics technology analyst at Bloomberg Economics… Corporate India is starting to make its concerns known. Bhavish Aggarwal, founder of Ola Cell Technologies Pvt. Ltd., the country’s first operational cell factory, privately warned policymakers in recent months that scaling domestic cell production without proven technology could deepen losses as China continues to set global battery prices and Indian demand remains limited, people familiar with the conversations said… India has sought to temper its own skepticism of Chinese capital in targeted ways. While its tight investment screening rules continue to require government approval for capital from neighboring countries, New Delhi recently eased procedures in select strategic sectors like electronics components, semiconductors and rare earths manufacturing to allow smaller, carefully structured investments.” Read more: Alisha Sachdev, Bloomberg

• India’s exports in FY26 grow 4% to $860 billion; trade deficit widens by $25 billion

“India’s merchandise exports grew by over 4 per cent in the 2025-26 fiscal year, though the overall trade deficit widened by more than 26 per cent for the full year, according to data released by the Commerce Ministry on Wednesday. Despite the annual expansion of the gap, the trade deficit narrowed in March as both exports and imports saw a synchronised dip during the final month of the fiscal year… The country’s merchandise exports during April-March 2025-26 went up 1 per cent to $441.78 billion from $437.7 billion. Imports also increased to $774.98 billion during the period from $721.2 billion in 2024-25. Services exports are estimated at $418.31 billion in 2025-26, showing a growth of around 8 per cent… Due to the war involving the US, Israel and Iran, which began on February 28, India’s exports to West Asia fell 57.95 per cent in March, Agrawal said, adding that total imports from that region also declined by 51.64 per cent last month. Imports of crude oil and related products fell nearly 36 per cent year-on-year to $12.18 billion in March, while gold imports declined 31.6 per cent to $3.06 ‌billion… He said that export growth was driven by a diversified basket, including engineering goods, petroleum products, electronics, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, textiles, gems & jewellery, rice and marine products, strengthening India’s position in global value chains.” Read more: Shishir Sinha, The Hindu BusinessLine

• India’s unemployment rate edges up to 5.1% in March as urban joblessness rises

“India’s unemployment rate for people aged 15 years and above rose to 5.1% in March 2026 from 4.9% in the previous month, owing to a rise in joblessness in urban areas. The unemployment rate in urban areas rose to 6.8% in March from 6.6% the previous month, driven primarily by an increase in unemployment among both urban men and women, according to the latest Periodic Labour Force Survey Monthly Bulletin released by the statistics ministry on Wednesday… The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), conducted by the National Statistical Office under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, serves as India’s official benchmark for tracking workforce participation, employment trends and unemployment levels across the country. The survey methodology was modified in January 2025 to provide monthly and quarterly estimates of labour force indicators… According to the survey, the overall LFPR among people aged 15 years and above was estimated at 55.4% in March, a decline from 55.9% in February. In rural areas, the LFPR stood at 58.0% in March, down from 58.7% in February. The urban LFPR was estimated at 50.3% in March, marginally down from 50.4% in February, the survey said.” Read more: Subhash Narayan, Mint

• India’s Inflation Picks Up as Iran War Lifts Energy Costs

“India’s inflation edged up in March as the war in the Middle East lifted crude prices and squeezed gas supplies for key industries. The consumer price index rose 3.40% in March from a year earlier, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation said Monday, matching the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. It was 3.21% in February… The reading marks the first full month of data since the Iran war began, which has disrupted global fuel supplies and pushed prices sharply higher. India is among the economies most exposed to such shocks, importing about 90% of its crude oil and more than half of its liquefied petroleum gas… Concerns are also building over forecast of below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, adding pressure on farmers who are already facing higher input costs following the Middle East conflict. Data released Monday showed food prices — which account for about 37% of the consumer basket — rose 3.87% in March from a year earlier. The government and companies have so far absorbed the impact of higher crude prices, keeping pump prices unchanged. Still, elevated oil costs are beginning to filter through to some industries, Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said at a press conference last week. He projects inflation at 4.6% for the current financial year, above the midpoint of the central bank’s 2%-6% target range.” Read more: Anup Roy, Bloomberg

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Foreign Policy & Security:

• India, US and the limits of the Iran isolation strategy

“India’s silence on the Iran war has sparked an intense debate between those who accuse New Delhi of shirking its moral obligations and those who argue that condemning US-Israeli aggression would be an empty gesture. Missing from this debate is a more important question: What role did India play in the long-term isolation of Iran?… Isolating its adversaries has always been one of Washington’s preferred strategies… Historically, India opposed this strategy. It maintained the policy of abiding by only UN sanctions, and not those imposed unilaterally by the US, as articulated by former foreign minister Sushma Swaraj… This belief shaped India’s broader approach. As the largest country outside rival blocs, it has often acted as a safety valve, maintaining ties with isolated states, easing polarisation, and preventing them from drifting entirely into the orbit of America’s principal adversaries, once the USSR and now China… During a tense moment in 2008, when the US and Israel threatened to attack Iran, India issued a pre-emptive statement that such a military strike would be “unacceptable international behaviour” that would destabilise the entire region… In 2012, US pressure finally succeeded in forcing India to reduce its crude oil imports from Iran after much bickering, though it remained one of the largest purchasers of Iranian oil. In 2019, when President Trump launched the “maximum pressure” campaign after withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, India stopped imports of crude oil from Iran to preserve its strategic relationship with the US… If India wishes to play a role in stabilising West Asia in the future, its path lies not just in making principled statements or offering to mediate, but in a long-term strategy of deliberate economic integration with all major actors in the region.” Read more: Sandeep Bhardwaj, Times of India

• India’s China Strategy in an Uncertain Strategic Environment

“New Delhi’s efforts to stabilize ties with Beijing preceded the 2024 U.S. election. Nevertheless, Washington’s approach to India and China has only reinforced New Delhi’s rationale for re-engaging China. Fraught U.S.-India ties, combined with Trump’s evident desire for a deal with China, have likely created doubts in New Delhi about U.S. reliability and how Washington might respond in the event of an India-China crisis… Indian policymakers will hope that managing the border dispute and undertaking dialogue with China will ease pressure on Indian resources and strategic bandwidth, while also providing them greater diplomatic space—including in managing ties with Washington… Trump’s tariffs on India also strengthened another Indian motivation for stabilizing ties with China: the possibility of limited economic re-engagement. New Delhi has sought to reduce overdependence on the U.S. market by diversifying its export destinations—to include China… While those developments reinforce India’s strategic rivalry with China, Washington’s approach over the last year has complicated every element of New Delhi’s balancing strategy vis-à-vis Beijing: one, managing ties with Beijing; two, internal balancing or building capabilities; and three, external balancing through partnerships with like-minded countries…. Despite these complications, the intensity of India’s rivalry with China and the gap in capabilities between the two Asian giants mean that the United States will remain vital for India… Trump 2.0 has not altered the structural logic of India’s China policy, but it has complicated the environment in which that strategy operates.” Read more: Tanvi Madan, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

• India-US trade deal back in focus: Indian delegation to visit Washington next week for talks

“Months after India and the US announced an interim trade agreement that reduces tariffs on India to 18%, an official Indian delegation is set to travel to Washington next week for discussions with US authorities, a government source said on Wednesday. According to a PTI source, the visit is scheduled for next week. The agreement had originally been expected to be signed in March, but developments in the Donald Trump tariff regime following a ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States have changed the circumstances… Officials had earlier indicated that the deal would be concluded only after clarity emerges on the revised tariff structure in the United States… Amid these changes, a planned meeting between the chief negotiators from both sides was deferred last month. The two countries had been scheduled to meet in February to finalise the legal text of the agreement. At the time the framework was agreed, India enjoyed a relative advantage over competing nations. That edge has since narrowed, as all US trading partners are now subject to the same 10 per cent tariff. The upcoming talks will also be crucial in the context of two ongoing investigations initiated by the Office of the United States Trade Representative under Section 301. On March 12, the USTR launched a probe covering around 60 economies, including India and China.” Read more: Times of India

• Trump’s Hormuz blockade puts China, India in crosshairs as U.S. pressure on Iran spills over

“The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not only squeezing Iran but also ratcheting up pressure on two of its most consequential relationships in Asia — India and China… India, with its complicated ties with the U.S., is increasingly finding U.S. policy at odds with its economic interests — most acutely in the energy shock now rippling through its economy… Earlier this month, India resumed purchases of Iranian oil and gas after a seven-year hiatus, having secured safe passage for its ships through the strait from Tehran, under a temporary U.S. waiver. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, after a nearly 40-minute call with Trump on Tuesday, said the two leaders had a “useful exchange of views” on the Middle East conflict and that India “supports de-escalation and restoration of peace at the earliest.” Even if Washington carves out special provisions for India, they are unlikely to cover the full scale of New Delhi’s gas needs, said Arpit Chaturvedi, South Asia geopolitical risk advisor at consultancy Teneo… The odds for a sharp countermove from Beijing and New Delhi that could quickly sour their ties with the U.S. also remain low, analysts say… India, meanwhile, is likely to shift energy imports away from Iran once Washington’s waiver expires, turning instead to Russia, the U.S., Australia, and other suppliers, Chaturvedi said.” Read more: Anniek Bao, CNBC

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People & Politics:

• India’s Uttar Pradesh state raises workers’ wages amid protests over pay

“India’s northern state of Uttar Pradesh has raised workers’ minimum wages following days of protests in an industrial hub, government sources said, becoming ​the second state to do so in less than a week amid rising ‌costs fanned by the Iran war. Protesters in Noida - a suburb of the national capital that houses industrial units including that of South Korean technology giant Samsung Electronics had torched vehicles and pelted stones on Monday as ​they demanded higher pay, with police lobbing tear gas shells to quell the demonstrations… Around ​40,000 workers were part of the Noida protest, according to the Gautam Buddh Nagar police, which has lodged seven criminal cases related to the demonstrations. More than 300 people have been arrested, a police spokesperson told ​Reuters. The wage hike ordered this week will be applicable retrospectively from April 1, and will ​increase the pay of unskilled workers in Noida to roughly $147 per month from the current monthly pay of ‌about $121, ⁠government sources said… Sheetal Dixit, who works ​at an automobile company ⁠in Noida, said workers had heard about the revised minimum wages but termed them “unfair”. “We are not happy with the increased wages,” she told ​Reuters.” Read more: Saurabh Sharma and Anushree Fadnavis, Reuters

• Centre moots inter-State redistribution of Lok Sabha seats based on 2011 Census

“States that have stabilised their populations over past decades could see their share of representation in Parliament shrinking if proposals in the drafts of a Constitution Amendment Bill and a Delimitation Bill circulated by the Centre become law. The Budget Session is reconvening on Thursday to consider the Constitution (131st) Amendment Bill and the Delimitation Bill, which the government says are aimed at expediting the implementation of 33% reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and the State Assemblies. The Congress said the government was using women’s reservation as a facade to railroad inter-State redistribution of Lok Sabha seats without consultation, and ahead of the 2029 general election… The proposals emphatically seek to change the seat distribution - indeed, that is stated in the objects and reasons of the Constitutional Amendment Bill itself… The draft Delimitation Bill mandates that “it shall be the duty of the Commission to readjust, on the basis of the latest census figures, the allocation of seats in the House of the People to the States.” If these proposals are enacted, the Hindi heartland States will see their share of Lok Sabha seats rise from 38.1% to 43.1%, while the southern States will see theirs shrink from 24.3% to 20.7%.” Read more: Varghese K. George & Sobhana K. Nair, The Hindu

• A letter to Babasaheb Ambedkar: Those who sing paeans to you inflict wounds on your Constitution

“Dear Babasaheb, your life and thinking were deeply invested in larger ideas of equality, fraternity and a just society. But one most routinely go back to your contribution to the making of the Constitution, because, won’t these goals remain distant and vague if we were to isolate them from the distortions of the Constitution that you shaped? But your Constitution has become unrecognisable if not almost irrelevant amid bad practices and clever distortions. You were prescient when you warned that the Constitution would fail, not because it was not well crafted but because the people entrusted to work on it choose to make it a failure… Babasaheb, your followers associate the ambition of one person-one vote-one value with you and the Constitution. You were rightly concerned with expanding the ambit of democracy beyond the political; you warned that political democracy would be meaningless without social democracy. But we have managed to scuttle the basics themselves. If political democracy is constrained, legally and judicially reshaped to exclude, then the idea of social democracy will automatically become more distant and less relevant… So we went on quoting your statement that Article 32 is the heart and soul of the Constitution. Little did we know that sedition charges would overpower all other considerations and “bail, not jail” would become mere poetry… If the heart and soul of the Constitution can be robbed of its strength and starring role, we are not too far away from the time when nothing in the Constitution is treated as sacrosanct.” Read more: Suhas Palshikar, Indian Express

• ‘Those who twisted my speech were at fault, not me’: Judge who drew ire for remarks on Muslims retires

“Allahabad high court judge, justice Shekhar Kumar Yadav, whose incendiary remarks against Muslims two years ago led to the Opposition moving an impeachment notice against him, retired on Wednesday and said his words were twisted. In December 2024, justice Yadav addressed a gathering organised by the legal cell of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad within the Allahabad High Court Bar Association premises, and made a series of incendiary statements that targeted the Muslim community and invoked majoritarian themes. In his speech, he reportedly asserted that “India should function according to the wishes of the majority,” claimed “only a Hindu can make this country a ‘Vishwa Guru’,” and linked practices such as triple talaq and halala to societal backwardness, calling for their abolition under the proposed Uniform Civil Code (UCC). Video clips of the speech, which went viral on social media, show him allegedly using derogatory communal slurs… Fifty-five Opposition MPs gave an impeachment notice against justice Yadav to the Rajya Sabha on December 13, 2024 over his contentious speech. HT reported later that the Supreme Court was preparing to initiate an in-house inquiry into justice Yadav’s speech but dropped the plan after receiving a categorical letter from the Rajya Sabha secretariat that asserted exclusive jurisdiction over the matter.” Read more: Jitendra Sarin, Hindustan Times

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Tech:

• MeitY may let users, intermediaries join content-blocking hearings

“The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) is proposing to allow affected online users and internet intermediaries to participate in Inter-Departmental Committee (IDC) hearings, giving them a clearer opportunity to argue against content blocking orders, officials told The Economic Times. “In recent stakeholder consultations, some intermediaries have requested us to ensure the user is given a clear chance to represent and explain their rationale behind posting flagged content, if they choose to do so. It’s part of continuous efforts to make government processes more accessible,” according to an official who spoke to the Economic Times… The proposal follows draft amendments to the Information Technology (Intermediary Guidelines and Digital Media Ethics Code) Rules, 2021, which broaden regulatory oversight… However, the amendments now extend this oversight to all user posts related to news and current affairs. As a result, the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting (MIB) gains the authority to examine and potentially block news-related content posted by individual users, not just publishers.” Read more: Prabhanu Kumar Das, Medianama

• In Bengaluru’s water-stressed areas sit most of its data centres

“Every summer, Bengaluru goes back to doing what it knows too well — figuring out how to make its water last. The Bengaluru Water Supply and Sewerage Board (BWSSB) puts out its action plan, neighbourhoods brace for tighter days, and tankers begin to fill the gaps. But this time, the city is juggling an additional demand, one that doesn’t slow down when the taps do — its data centres, and the water they greedily consume. That issue now sits at the centre of Karnataka’s push to rewrite its data centre policy… Data centres are large facilities that house the servers, storage systems, and networking equipment that power everything from cloud computing to artificial intelligence. They run continuously, generate enormous heat, and require constant cooling, which is why water sits at the centre of their environmental footprint. Karnataka has 32 private data centres, of which 31 are in Bengaluru… The IT department, after repeated follow-ups, offered an estimate of roughly 4,000 kilolitres per day across all 32 facilities in the state. But the data was only an industry-wide approximation assembled through informal conversations with operators. Independent researchers put the consumption figure considerably higher than the government’s estimate. Shashank Palur, a hydrologist at WELL Labs, calculated that Bengaluru’s data centres consume approximately 20 million litres per day. The methodology is grounded in publicly available data: one megawatt of data centre capacity requires approximately 26 million litres of water per year. According to the IT department, 18 of Karnataka’s 32 centres alone account for 292.27 MW.” Read more: Shivani Kava, The News Minute

Watch/listen:

• What happened to the JNU students who challenged Modi? | Scroll

• How Archaeology Became a Public Debate | Talk by Sowmiya Ashok | Manthan India

• The lessons of past oil crises have not been fully learnt

“Major geopolitical disruptions in West Asia — the 1973 Arab-Israeli war and the 1979 Iranian Revolution — sent tremors through global energy markets. Crude prices surged from $1.5/barrel in 1970 to $35/barrel by the decade’s end… Supply disruptions and soaring import bills forced a rethink of energy policy. The idea was simple: Conserve oil, or avoid using it where alternatives exist… This movement towards conservation was short-lived. The 1980s brought major domestic oil discoveries like Mumbai High. Domestic production rose sharply and India was able to reduce its import dependence to about 30 per cent — a level it has never reached again. Global oil prices softened, the sense of crisis faded… Amidst this complacency, the Gulf War in 1991 came as a major shock… What was missing, however, was a renewed push toward demand restraint or fuel substitution… Fast forward to 2025, and India’s oil consumption has expanded nearly tenfold since the 1970s — rising from about 22 to roughly 240 MMTPA… The real concern lies elsewhere. Import dependence is now at its highest level — close to 90 per cent, nearly double what it was in the 1980s… The lessons from the previous oil shocks have been absorbed only piecemeal. Alternatives are slowly emerging across sectors, but the larger victory would be to bend the consumption curve before dependence deepens further.” Read more: Duttatreya Das and Rohit Chandra, Indian Express

• India delays coal flexibility plan as solar power curbs rise, document shows

“India has pushed back by a year its plan for coal-fired power plants to lower output ‌when solar generation is high, as regulators work out how to compensate for the higher costs of retrofitting entailed, documents reviewed by Reuters show. Analysts say lack of flexible generation of coal power as India expands renewable capacity threatens to waste green investments, swell compensation ​costs and boost emissions from greater coal use that could otherwise have been avoided… Solar generators told to cut output as ​India’s coal plants could not ramp down could get compensation of as much as $76 million for the eight months ​ended December, energy think-tank Ember estimates, a cost that will be passed on to consumers… Retrofitting coal plants would swell tariffs ​by as little as 0.28 rupees to 0.60 rupees per kilowatt-hour, versus 5.76 rupees to 6.04 rupees for battery storage, making ‌flexible ⁠coal at least 10 times cheaper, the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) said at the meeting.” Read more: Sudarshan Varadhan, Reuters

• India’s CO2 emissions in 2025 grew at slowest rate in two decades

“India’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions grew by 0.5% in the second half of 2025 and by just 0.7% in the year as a whole, the slowest rate in more than two decades. This is a sharp slowdown from the growth of 4-11% in the preceding four years and marks the lowest rate of increase since 2001, excluding the impact of Covid in 2020… Beneath the overall rise of just 0.7% in 2025, there were divergent trends in India’s key emitting sectors, with some seeing rapid rises in CO2 and others in historic decline. This is shown in the figure below, which compares year-on-year changes in emissions during the first and second half of 2025 with the average for 2021-23. Specifically, emissions fell by 3.8% year-on-year in the power sector, after the first drop in coal-power generation – outside Covid – since 1973. Oil products were more or less flat… Across the sectors, the reductions and weak growth in fossil-fuel consumption eased India’s vulnerability to the recent price and supply disruptions taking place in the wake of the attacks on Iran by the US and Israel, as well as Iran’s subsequent retaliation. Notably, India’s fossil-fuel imports were disproportionately affected by falling demand overall. For example, consumption of imported coal at power plants fell by 20% in 2025.” Read more: Lauri Myllyvirta and Anubha Aggarwal, CarbonBrief

• Strategic oil reserves at 2/3rds of capacity, minister tells Parl

“Answering a question on the total capacity of Strategic Petroleum Reserves currently available in the country and the quantity stored, Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas Suresh Gopi said the current reserves were 64 percent of the storage capacity… The government, through a Special Purpose Vehicle called Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserve Limited (ISPRL), has established Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) facilities with a total capacity of 5.33 Million Metric Tonnes (MMT) of crude oil at three locations in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, which can act as buffer for short-term supply shocks… In July 2021, he government had also approved the establishment of two additional commercial-cum-strategic petroleum reserve facilities with a total storage capacity of 6.5 MMT in Odisha and Karnataka… Currently, these enterprises import crude oil from 41 countries, including new suppliers like the US, Nigeria, Angola, Canada, Columbia, Brazil and Mexico in addition to traditional suppliers in the Middle East such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar.” Read more: Aditi Tandon, Tribune

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Economy:

• Indian asset managers dump government bonds at record pace on oil shock

“Mutual funds have sold Indian government bonds at a record pace in March so far, as the Iran war drove up oil prices, heightening inflation risks, ​pushing the rupee to record lows and prompting a broad selloff across the ‌debt market. This has led some asset managers to shift to short-duration corporate debt where they see greater value… Brent crude’s surge to near $120 per barrel has ​intensified inflation concerns and pushed the rupee to a record low beyond 93 ⁠per dollar, prompting investors to demand higher yields on both government and corporate bonds… Corporate bonds ​have become “more attractive from a risk-reward perspective”, said Basant Bafna, head of fixed income at ​Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India). Mutual funds’ selling of government bonds reflect heightened caution due to the Iran war, ‌alongside improving ⁠relative value in corporate bonds, Bafna said… Rajeev Radhakrishnan, ​CIO-fixed income at ⁠SBI Mutual Fund, the nation’s largest fund manager in terms of assets under management, said some investors may opt to switch to other asset categories in hybrid schemes.” Read more: Dharamraj Dhutia, Reuters

• Rupee Slide to 100 a ‘Virtual Certainty’ for Some Despite RBI

“India’s rupee may weaken to a record 100 per dollar or beyond if the Iran war drags on, with strategists warning that authorities’ efforts to slow its roughly 10% drop over the past year may only provide temporary relief… Already one of Asia’s worst performers against the dollar this year, the rupee’s slide has spurred the Reserve Bank of India to take one of its boldest steps in more than a decade, capping banks’ end-of-day positions in the onshore currency market at $100 million… But the price action on Monday highlighted the limits of such measures: after surging as much as 1.4% at the open on the curbs, the rupee reversed course to hit a fresh low of 95.125 later in the day. The market was closed on Tuesday. “100 per dollar is no longer a tail risk — it is a credible stress scenario if current conditions persist,” said Ahmed Azzam, head of financial market research at broker Equiti Group in Amman. “The latest measures look more like short-term stabilization tools than a structural solution.”… The rupee was already under pressure before the war, weighed down by widening external balances and capital outflows. The oil shock has compounded pressures for the world’s third-largest crude importer, while a potential drop in remittances from Indians in the Gulf may further dent inflows and sentiment.” Read more: Ruth Carson, Bloomberg

• An economic policy response to the West Asia crisis: Managing supply shock

“Supply shocks are notoriously difficult to respond to, as Covid taught us, because they simultaneously impinge on growth and drive up inflation, creating difficult policy trade-offs. How then should India respond in the current environment? The first thing to appreciate is the nature of this supply shock… Here, the adverse price shock is being compounded by a quantitative constraint on volumes of crude, gas and liquified petroleum gas (LPG)… First, there is a growing risk that economic activity will be impacted, resulting in a hit to activity much larger than the sticker price of crude and gas would suggest… Second, as we learnt in Covid, non-linearities quickly begin to emerge. If an establishment shuts down, and lets go of its workers, this process is often hard to reverse… For both these reasons, when quantitative constraints being to bind, the hit to economic activity can be much larger than that assumed from the terms-of-trade shock emanating from higher crude and gas prices… Policy therefore needs to respond at three levels. The immediate response has to be to keep the economy’s lights on as much as possible, in the wake of a potential energy shortage… The second phase must deal with the price fall-out… Finally, when the dust settles, on this shock it’s important to draw the right lessons. After the taper tantrum of 2013, India realise the value of buffers and frameworks to preserve macroeconomic stability… India must now adopt a similar risk-management mindset to guard against growth shocks.” Read more: Sajjid Chinoy, Business Standard

• Oracle cuts 12,000 jobs in India as part of broader global restructuring

“Mumbai-based Rohith (name changed on request), a senior cloud architect at Oracle, said he was informed of his layoff via an email sent around 6 am on Tuesday. He added that while employees had sensed impending cuts, notifications were delivered without any one-on-one communication from HR or managers. In a similar move, around 30,000 Oracle employees were laid off globally on Tuesday as part of a restructuring linked to its AI infrastructure push, particularly in data centres. In India, roughly 40% of the 30,000-strong workforce—about 12,000 employees—were impacted… In an internal communication, Oracle said the role eliminations were part of a broader organisational restructuring, adding that the day of notification would be employees’ last working day. It said affected staff would be eligible for severance benefits upon signing termination paperwork, in line with company policy… The layoffs come despite strong financial performance. In its Q3 FY26 results announced on March 10, Oracle reported revenue growth of 22% in USD terms and 18% in constant currency, taking total revenue to $17.2 billion. It also marked the first quarter in over 15 years where both organic total revenue and organic non-GAAP EPS grew at 20% or more in USD… In February 2026, the company said it planned to raise $50 billion through debt and equity, subsequently securing $30 billion via investment-grade bonds and mandatory convertible preferred stock.” Read more: The Hindu Businessline

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Foreign Policy & Security:

• After Modi: Political Leadership and the Future of Indian Foreign Policy

“By the time of India’s next national election in 2029, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be 78 years old. At present, it is unclear whether he will run for another term… Against this backdrop, this essay identifies two individuals from within Modi’s own party and from within the opposition as representing the next generation of India’s political leaders. They are Yogi Adityanath, who is a seasoned BJP leader and currently chief minister of Uttar Pradesh (India’s most populous state), and Rahul Gandhi, who is de facto leader of the Congress party and leader of the opposition in the lower house of parliament… Three factors broadly shape the foreign policy views of Adityanath and Gandhi. First, the overriding importance of economic development, political stability, and social advancement at the domestic level. The public statements of both leaders are focused mostly on domestic issues… Second, India’s national security in the face of regional rivals Pakistan and China looms large as another factor shaping the views of these two leaders. Both leaders have taken strong stances on national security issues, albeit with differing emphasis… Third, both leaders are nationalists motivated by a sense of Indian exceptionalism, again with different understandings of India’s place in the world… Based on the above analysis, one can characterize the worldview that Adityanath represents as hard-line Hindu nationalist and the worldview that Gandhi represents as civic nationalist. Both see India as exceptional, advocate firm responses to external adversaries, and prioritize socioeconomic development. However, they are fundamentally at odds in their views on what the ideal Indian polity is and how it should be achieved.” Read more: Rohan Mukherjee, National Bureau of Asian Research

• Prime Minister Modi put himself at the centre of India’s foreign policy. Now the joke is on him

“In recent weeks, there has been a proliferation of memes, videos and cartoons poking fun at the prime minister, particularly his overtly personalised approach to foreign policy, even as the government has taken down hundreds of social media posts and disabled the accounts of several users for sharing satirical content against it… The rise in humour targeting Modi’s foreign policy is easily explained by the war in West Asia, argued journalist G Sampath, who has been writing a satirical column for The Hindu since 2017. His most recent piece about India’s foreign policy and Modi’s “strategic use of hugs, medals, photo-ops” elicited considerable attention on social media. The conflict in West Asia was, in his assessment, making many Indians, who believed that the country’s global stature had risen under Modi, question the “Vishwaguru” narrative… Bharatiya Janata Party spokesperson RP Singh acknowledged that on social media his party appeared to be on the backfoot… In 2018, the Congress party had mocked the prime minister for “hugplomacy” – his supposed preference for hugging foreign dignitaries to establish familiarity. The criticism did not stick then and Modi came back to power with a bigger mandate in 2019. But Seema Chishti, editor of The Wire, which had one of its satirical videos on the prime minister taken down in recent weeks, argued that the ground had shifted since then. Drawing an analogy with floods, she said the consequences of Modi’s foreign policy were now becoming apparent to more Indians.” Read more: Anant Gupta, Scroll

• Is India-China tango on Beijing’s tune?

“During the farewell to outgoing Indian Ambassador to China Pradeep Kumar Rawat, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi highlighted that in the last few months India-China relations had “embarked on the right track of improvement and development”… While there has been an uptick in positive statements from Beijing about the benefits of India-China co-operation, this dance will only be possible to Beijing’s tune… Till October 2024, New Delhi’s narrative on a thaw was centred on resolving the border issue… Since October 2024, India’s approach has shifted toward building trust and celebrating the 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties. New Delhi has accepted Beijing’s assertion that people-to-people contact must resume… Despite Jaishankar’s October 2024 statement that “the disengagement process with China has been completed”, there has been no de-escalation on the border. In January, Chief of Army Staff General Upendra Dwivedi said that even though diplomatic and military engagements are helping in maintaining stability, “the Line of Actual Control (LAC) requires constant vigilance as both India and China continue to increase their presence along the border.” Around 60,00 troops are deployed on each side... Clearly, the border situation has not changed significantly since October 2024. Yet, New Delhi appears to have sidelined border resolution and de-escalation, instead toeing Beijing’s ‘people-to-people’ contact and ‘win-win co-operation’ narrative. Today, the trajectory of India-China ties appears to be largely dictated by Beijing.” Read more: Gunjan Singh, Deccan Herald

• Dubai’s Indian expatriates hunker down amid Gulf conflict

“Wealthy westerners may have paid exorbitant sums or chartered jets to flee the war in Gulf, but the region’s biggest expatriate population is making a different bet: the vast majority of Indians are staying put. For most of the nearly 10mn Indians working in the Gulf, daily drone and missile interceptions overhead are not enough of a reason to quit jobs which are far more lucrative than the ones they left behind on the subcontinent… “Pretty much everybody is anxious, but nobody is panicked,” said Yashwant Deshmukh, a Dubai-based media analyst from the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, who has lived in the United Arab Emirates for more than 15 years. “Of all the friends we have here in our social circle, not a single one has left.” Several Indians working in the Gulf said they were more worried about the risk to job security than personal safety… While wealthier Indians in the Gulf, as with their western counterparts, have a choice about staying, the options for those in manual jobs are more limited. Lower-income migrants “are choosing to stay in Gulf cities . . If they go home, they’ll have to start looking for jobs and it’s not clear whether they’re going to be able to get anything quickly, at least at the same income levels,” said Uday Chandra, a political scientist who studies south Asia.” Read more: Michael Scott, Andres Schipani and Simeon Kerr, Financial Times

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People & Politics:

• For 1st Time In 4 Decades, Young Men Are Withdrawing From Education

“By 2023, a 20- to 29-year-old graduate woman was earning as much as her male peers. When we look closely at these trends, there is both cause for celebration as well as for worry. Between 2017 and 2023, young women’s earnings increased at the rate of 1% per annum (after accounting for inflation). On the other hand, young men’s earnings have slowed down significantly, and in fact, between 2017 and 2023, average annual growth rate was -0.1% in real terms… The second surprising trend was the withdrawal of young men from education. This is the first time this is happening in the last 40 years that we have data for. Between 2017 and 2023, the share of young men in education has fallen from 38% to 34%… Finally, the large increases in Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) youth in ‘modern’ industries has been heartening to see. While other studies have also pointed towards this intergenerational mobility with SC/ST sons far less likely to be in the industries that their fathers were employed in… India’s growth has been associated with ‘jobless’ growth. Perhaps, this ‘jobless’ aspect may have mitigated somewhat given that employment creation, particularly for young women, has picked up in the last half-decade. But if you look closely at where this employment has been created, most of it has been in agriculture—a sector that contributes least to output and investment, and a sector associated with lowest earnings.” Read more: Karthik Madhavapeddi, IndiaSpend

• Maharashtra’s anti-conversion law, built on contested claims

“Maharashtra’s legislature has passed the Dharma Swatantrya Adhiniyam 2026—the Maharashtra Freedom of Religion Act—making the State the 13th in India to legislate on religious conversion. The BJP-led Mahayuti government pushed the Bill through despite strong objections from civil society groups and parts of the opposition… The law lays down a stringent procedural framework for conversion. A person wishing to convert must give 60 days’ notice to a designated district authority and obtain permission before the conversion takes place. After converting, the individual must register the change with the authority within 25 days; failure to do so will render the conversion null and void. If a blood relative of the person converting files a complaint alleging unlawful conversion, the police will be required to register an FIR and begin an investigation…The punishments are steep. Violations attract imprisonment of up to 10 years and a fine of up to Rs.7 lakh. All offences are cognisable and non-bailable. Where the person converted is a minor, a woman, a person of unsound mind, or a member of the Scheduled Castes or Scheduled Tribes, the punishment goes up to seven years’ imprisonment and a fine of Rs.5 lakh… When the Bill came up for discussion in the Assembly, the Maha Vikas Aghadi—the principal ppposition alliance—split along its own fault lines. Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena faction backed the Bill, saying it opposed forced conversion in any form. The Congress, NCP (Sharad Pawar), and the Samajwadi Party opposed it. The same pattern held in the Legislative Council.” Read more: Amey Tirodkar, Frontline

• To impeach the CEC is a troubling first

“The win-win phrase has no antonym, although the exact opposite would be the one in which both sides lose without anything to compensate for their losses. The impeachment motion by Opposition parties against the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) is one such example. It is a motion destined not to be carried. Yet its prime movers may not see the loss as a defeat. But can the CEC see their loss as his victory?… The troubling part is that these political parties treat the CEC as an opponent. That raises disturbing questions that both sides must answer. The move to impeach the CEC is a first in the history of an institution that is the vanguard of Indian electoral democracy and was genuinely hailed as its custodian… The aggressive style and the severity of the LOP’s attack were surprising, for never in recent memory had someone as eminent as the LOP targeted the poll body, questioning its integrity. But more surprising was the poll body’s obduracy in not providing a credible response to the doubts raised on its functioning and impartiality. Even as the attacks became bitter, the communication channels between the poll body and the Opposition seemed to choke.” Read more: Ashok Lavasa, Tribune

• How India’s farm sector could end up as a major casualty of the conflict in West Asia

“One sector that is likely to see major disruptions is agriculture. Rising energy prices drive up input costs for farmers directly but also through an increase in fertiliser prices… The net impact of the global rise in energy and fertiliser prices is an increase in input costs and thus lower farm profitability, unless inputs are further subsidised… West Asia is also an important destination for Indian agricultural exports such as Basmati rice and spices. India’s farm-produce exports were already showing weakness, having fallen in the last two years to $51.1 billion in 2024-25 from %53.1 billion in 2022-23. Earlier, they had dropped from $43.3 billion in 2013-14 to about $30-35 billion in 2019-20… It is likely that inflation will climb as a result of a rise in food and agricultural commodity prices. Some of these price increases may be explained by the ‘base effect.’ As many agricultural commodity prices underwent deflation over the past year or so, rising prices would seem like a dramatic change. This effect would normalise over time. However, any restrictions of agricultural trade - domestic and exports - will only make things worse… For Indian farmers, uncertainty is as much a result of the geopolitical situation as it is of shifts in New Delhi’s policies. While it may not be possible to insulate Indian farms from an external crisis created by a war, strengthening domestic policy structures to protect the livelihood of farmers is certainly possible.” Read more: Himanshu, Mint

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Tech:

• How India’s Ruling Party is Using AI to Boost Hate Speech in States Near Bangladesh

“The video posted by a state branch of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) showed Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma shooting an image of two men in Muslim skull caps. “Foreigner-free Assam”, read one caption across the video. “Why did you not go to Pakistan?” said another. One of the men in the photo that Sarma was portrayed as shooting was Gaurav Gogoi, a leader of the Indian National Congress (INC), the BJP’s main competitor in Assam for the state’s upcoming legislative elections next month… But the image of him in the video shared by BJP Assam, wearing a casual singlet with a skull cap, was not one of those occasions. Bellingcat has seen several dozen videos posted by the BJP that use generative artificial intelligence (AI) alongside anti-Muslim and anti-Bangladeshi messaging in the border states of Assam and West Bengal in December last year, ahead of legislative elections scheduled in both states for April. Bellingcat analysed 499 social media posts containing photos and videos shared on Facebook, Instagram and X by the BJP’s official accounts in the two states for this time period, finding 194 posts that appeared to meet the United Nations’ definition of hate speech: discriminating against persons or communities based on inherent characteristics such as religion and national origin. Of these, 31 (about one in six of the hateful posts) contained the obvious use of AI-generated imagery… It is important to note that as generative AI technology improves, it can be increasingly difficult to detect AI-generated imagery.” Read more: Pooja Chaudhuri, Bellingcat

• Within a year of getting powers, MHA agency issued 290 takedown notices a day on average for online content

“Within a year of being empowered to directly issue takedown notices for online content, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) issued an average of about 290 such notices every day, according to MHA data. On March 13, 2024, the Indian Cyber Crime Coordination Centre (I4C) was designated as the MHA’s agency to perform the functions under Section 79 (3) (b) of the Information Technology Act, 2000… Social media intermediary X had challenged this provision and the Sahyog portal, which enables police across the country to send such notices through a common platform, in the Karnataka High Court, but the petition was turned down by the court in 2025. The Hindu reported on March 29, 2025, that nearly a third of the 66 takedown notices sent to X by the I4C sought the removal of content about Union Ministers and Central government agencies… Besides the MHA, there are also other government departments empowered under the particular section to issue takedown notices… CERT-In, which functions under the provisions of Section 70B of the Information Technology Act, 2000, recorded 29.44 lakh cyber security incidents in 2025, the highest figure in the last five years. The number of such incidents was 20.41 lakh in 2024.” Read more: Vijaita Singh, The Hindu

• Meghalaya Govt Signs MoU With Starlink To Pilot Satcom Services

“The Meghalaya government has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Elon Musk-led Starlink to pilot satellite communications (satcom) services in the state’s remote areas. Under the partnership, the state government will work with the satcom operator to deploy the satellite broadband service in areas like healthcare, education, and agriculture… As per Economic Times, the pilot will test whether the technology can reliably deliver high-speed internet across the state before considering a wider rollout. This comes a month after the satcom operator signed a letter of intent (LoI) with the Gujarat government to enable satellite-based internet connectivity in the state’s remote and border areas. Prior to this in November 2025, Starlink also inked a pact with Maharashtra government to deploy satcom services for government institutions in the state. It is pertinent to note that Starlink has received clearance from IN-SPACe to kick start operations in India. It had received similar approvals from the telecom department and TRAI in 2025. However, the company is yet to start commercial services in the country as it has not been allocated satellite spectrum.” Read more: Inc42

Bonus:

• Cleared: How Assam demolished the homes of 20,000 families | Ahmer Khan and Tom Vaillant | The New Humanitarian

Watch/listen:

• Future of US-Israel & Iran war,complexities of Middle East, India’s position & changing global order | C. Raja Mohan in conversation with Shekhar Gupta | ThePrint

• Policy Responses to India’s LPG Supply Crisis

“India’s LPG shortage amid the current West Asian crisis stems from multiple vulnerabilities in the system. First, while the demand has doubled, 60 per cent of its demand is met by imports. Second, 90 per cent of the imports are routed through the Strait of Hormuz, which adds to the geopolitical vulnerability. Lastly, India has very limited storage capacity for LPG, which would have served as a buffer in times of crisis… In January 2026 alone, India imported 2.192 million tonnes of LPG and produced 1.158 million tonnes… India has taken a series of immediate measures to ease the LPG shortage. Given that around 85–87 per cent of India’s LPG consumption is in the domestic (household) sector, the government has prioritised LPG supplies to households over those to commercial and industrial consumers. However, this has led to a massive fuel shortage for these non-household segments across India… As expected, a thriving black market has emerged for LPG cylinders, where a domestic gas cylinder is being sold at Rs 2000-3000 per cylinder (as against the listed price of Rs 950), and a commercial cylinder is sold for Rs 6000 (against Rs 1800)… Permitting alternative fuel sources for commercial establishments has reduced some dependency on LPG as well. The government allowed commercial kitchens to use biomass, kerosene, and RDF pellets as temporary fuels.” Read more: Anupam Manur and Anisree Suresh, Takshashila Institution

• India Must Not Let Methane Slip Through the Cracks

“Methane is one of the most dangerous climate pollutants, responsible for about a third of the global warming we are experiencing today… More than 150 countries have joined the Global Methane Pledge to do just that. India has not. The government argues that joining could unfairly burden smallholder farmers, since much of India’s methane comes from livestock and rice farming. These farmers often lack the money and technology needed to cut emissions, and that concern is understandable. In any case, the goal of cutting 30 percent methane emissions by 2030 is a collective goal. It does not imply that India has to manage these emission cuts alone nor that it has do it from one sector. Therefore, this argument does not hold. Especially when it comes to coal. India’s coal sector releases about 2.8 million tonnes of methane into the atmosphere every year—around 2 percent of the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions… The problem is not feasibility, but rather a lack of ambition. Key stakeholders, including coal companies, government authorities, civil society, and academia are not coming together to reduce emissions from the coal sector. The result? Coal mine methane has become India’s climate blind spot.” Read more: Sandeep Pai and Felicia Ruiz, Outlook Business

• Open access solar set to drive next phase of India’s C&I growth

“India’s renewable energy transition has gathered remarkable momentum in recent years, driven not only by ambitious government policies but increasingly by corporate demand for clean power. At the centre of this shift lies the Open Access Solar model, a market-based mechanism that allows commercial and industrial (C&I) consumers to procure solar electricity directly from independent power producers, bypassing traditional distribution companies (discoms)… Within this expansion, the open access solar segment – which enables off-site renewable power supply to C&I consumers—has witnessed notable growth. According to industry estimates, India’s cumulative open access solar capacity reached approximately 27.9 GW by September 2025, after adding nearly 6.1 GW in the first nine months of the year, marking a 13% year-on-year increase from 2024… Despite its growth, the open access sector faces execution hurdles. Early 2025 data showed a temporary slowdown in installations, with quarterly additions dropping due to module shortages, transmission constraints, and delayed connectivity approvals. These challenges highlight the urgent need for stronger grid infrastructure, faster regulatory approvals, and streamlined connectivity processes to sustain growth in the segment.” Read more: Shreyas Gowda, PV Magazine

• India’s Energy Generation Capacity May More Than Double by 2036

“India’s maximum power demand is expected to reach 459 gigawatts by the end of the decade, accompanied by a dramatic growth in generation and storage capacity, according to the power ministry… India still relies on coal-generated electricity for about two thirds of its power consumption, a dependence it’s trying to ease by adding more renewables into the grid. This month, gas shortages caused by the war in the Middle East have shone a spotlight on the country’s vulnerability to fossil fuel shocks. Within ten years, India’s energy portfolio is expected to look very different, with clean installations rising to 70% of the total from 52% today. The projected 786 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel sources, including 509 of solar alone, would vastly surpass 315 gigawatts of coal capacity. A rise in installations would be matched by a large expansion of transmission infrastructure by the same year, costing 7.93 trillion rupees ($85.6 billion). The government is planning to accommodate 900 gigawatts of clean capacity, exceeding what it expects for 2036.” Read more: Rajesh Kumar Singh, Bloomberg

• India’s Reliance buys 5 million barrels of Iranian oil after US waiver, sources say

“India's Reliance Industries operator of the world’s biggest refining complex, has purchased 5 million ​barrels of Iranian crude, days after the U.S. temporarily removed sanctions on ‌the oil, three sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday. The Indian refiner bought the oil from the National Iranian Oil Co., two of the sources ​said. One of them said the crude was priced at a ​premium of about $7 a barrel to ICE Brent futures. It ⁠was not immediately clear when the oil would be delivered. Iranian oil, which ​in recent years has mainly been bought by Chinese independent refiners, ​is often rebranded as originating from another country… The deal marks India’s first purchase of Iranian oil since the world’s third-biggest oil importer and consumer halted imports from Iran in May 2019, months ​after Washington reimposed ​sanctions on ⁠Tehran… Other Asian refiners including Indian state firms are making checks to see if they can purchase the oil, several sources have said. However, Asia's top ⁠refiner ​Sinopec does not intend to buy Iranian oil, ​a senior executive at the Chinese state giant said on Monday.” Read more: Nidhi Verma and Siyu Liu, Reuters

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Economy:

• As War Disrupts India’s Gulf Ties, Economy Faces ‘New Broadside’

“Only a few weeks ago, the stars seemed to be aligning for India’s economy. India was one of the fastest-growing major economies, consistently outpacing its powerful neighbor, China… An underappreciated component of the momentum was India’s deepening ties to the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf. But that advantage is now turning into a liability. The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is a perfect storm for India’s economy… Last week, Goldman Sachs warned that India was facing slower growth, higher inflation and a weaker currency over the coming year, driven by rising energy prices, slowing exports to the United Arab Emirates and its neighbors and potentially lower remittances. The investment bank said India’s “positive growth story” was now facing a “new broadside.” India’s stock markets have fallen about 10 percent over the past month… Rathin Roy, an economist and dean at GITAM, a university in Hyderabad, said the crisis in the Gulf would force India to “watch its balance of payments very, very carefully.” Imports will become more expensive just as India’s exports are disrupted. India’s foreign-exchange reserves are strong now but could be cut in half within the year.” Read more: Alex Travelli, The New York Times

• Net assessment of India’s manufacturing sector

“The Second Advance Estimates (SAE) of annual GDP (gross domestic product) for 2026 under the new series with base year 2022-23 were released on 27 February 2026. A major update to the prevailing 2011-12 base year, the new data show faster manufacturing growth and rising but lower share of the sector in gross value added (GVA) as compared to the old series. This unsatisfactory trend demands a complete net assessment of India’s manufacturing sector, including strategic comparisons with best practices in other countries on a range of indicators to identify impactful pathways for policy development for the sector… In the four years of 2021-22 to 2024-25 following the Covid-19 pandemic, manufacturing value addition witnessed double-digit growth rates for two years and fell into negative territory in 2022-23 with an overall average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 6.3% for the period. While this is not low, it does not match the growth rate in overall GVA which remained steady following a sharp post-Covid recovery with an average growth pace of 7.9%… Assessing the data for other indicators such as share in GDP, share in employment, and share in exports, India’s manufacturing sector falls short as compared to key developing countries which have built notable manufacturing industries. A key concern is stagnant manufacturing volumes as depicted by the IIP (manufacturing) for sub-sectors.” Read more: Sharmila Kantha, Ideas for India

• India’s private sector growth hits 3-year low as Middle East war saps demand

“India’s private sector expanded at its weakest pace in over three years in March as price shocks from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran dampened domestic demand, yet international orders hit ​a record high, a survey showed on Tuesday. The data signals weakening activity in the ‌final month of the fiscal year for one of the world’s top-performing economies, and highlights the risks to growth in India and globally from the Middle East conflict… HSBC’s flash India ​Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, slumped to 56.5 this month, ⁠well below the median forecast of 59.0 in a Reuters poll which had expected little change ​from February’s final reading of 58.9… Manufacturing bore the brunt with its PMI sliding to a 4-1/2-year low of 53.8 from 56.9 as the Middle East conflict stoked market instability and consumer uncertainty, dragging ​factory output growth to its softest since August 2021… Inflationary pressures intensified sharply, with ‌input costs - ⁠oil, energy, food, aluminium, steel and chemicals - rising at their fastest pace since June 2022, while selling prices climbed to a seven-month high.” Read more: Reuters

• Singed by Iran fire, Rupee drops 108 paise in single session, worst fall in 4 years

“The rupee fell to a record low of 93.71 on Friday, dropping 108 paise from its previous close of 92.63, marking its sharpest single-day decline in four years, as fears of oil prices staying above $100 for longer intensified with the West Asia conflict widening to attacks on energy infrastructure in the region. Forecasters are now talking about the rupee breaching 95 levels in the next six months… There is also no end to FII sell-off in the equity market, with a net sell of approximately Rs 80,000 crore, which is more than $8.5 billion, from March 1 till yesterday… With energy supply disrupted and prices of oil and gas soaring, a weaker rupee adds to the pressure on inflation, which, at 3.2% in Feb, is currently within the tolerance zone. But economists are worried as a prolonged conflict will push up prices of a host of commodities, with a weak rupee further stoking inflation. Market players said that RBI has been intervening in the market to arrest a steep slide, but it has had limited impact… So far, 2025-26 is the worst financial year for the rupee in the last decade. The only other financial year in history when the rupee has depreciated more in absolute terms was 2008-09, when the rupee weakened by 1,058 paise against the US dollar.” Read more: Times of India

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Foreign Policy & Security:

• Modi Government’s Ill-Conceived Policy on West Asia Jeopardises India’s Interests and Credibility

“Previously, at the outbreak of war, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) had posted an official statement urging all sides to “exercise restraint, avoid escalation and prioritize safety of civilians” and advising “dialogue and diplomacy” to address underlying issues… Although this statement refrained from noting—let alone criticizing—the naked aggression on Iran by the United States (US) and Israel as well as the targeted assassination of the Iranian head of state, several Indian commentators helpfully parsed it as an astute diplomatic message that at once criticized the violation of international law and Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Gulf countries. The government was evidently a tad more aware of the infirmities of this stance… In a chronically unstable region, marked by multiple and intersecting lines of political and military rivalry among states and non-state actors as well as external powers, India’s ability to manage its diverse interests with a range of West Asian countries turned on two crucial axes: its overall credibility as a partner, and its willingness to stand by the “rules of the game” of international politics… Unfortunately, New Delhi has, by its acts of commission and omission, struck a blow at these foundational elements of its regional policy. Start with the most heedless act of commission: Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Israel just two days before the attack on Iran… This sharp tilt towards Israel and the US was also apparent in our acts of omission. Far from condemning the assassination of the Iranian supreme leader, New Delhi avoided even condoling his passing.” Read more: Srinath Raghavan, The India Forum

• Who will buy India’s weapons?

“After IT, BPO, and Pharma, the NDA has projected weapons manufacturing as India’s latest economic engine. It aims to develop an indigenous arms manufacturing sector to boost self-reliance in weaponry and grab a part of the over-$600 billion global arms and military services trade… To this end, in 2020, it introduced new localization requirements, barring foreign manufacturers from selling directly to India’s armed forces. They now need to tie up with Indian firms and make their products in India…First, it needs to be assessed whether the NDA’s assumption that transfer of technology through joint ventures can help India’s private sector muscle into the global weapons manufacturing trade is working… Second, as reporter Andrew Feinstein writes in The Shadow World: Inside The Global Arms Trade, bribery and the use of political connections have been integral to the global weapons trade…Apart from needing jobs, India is also prone to elite capture and a weakened rule of law. And so, will this domestic military-industrial complex create jobs and forex earnings, or will it drag India into the same quagmire that Feinstein described?… Here is what The Polis Project found: While India’s weapons manufacturing push focuses on acquiring advanced technologies and encouraging local production, it faces challenges as foreign OEMs are unwilling to share core technologies. This reluctance makes them partner with smaller Indian firms (rather than established ones), which are content to limit themselves to weapons assembly.” Read more: M. Rajshekhar, The Polis Project

• The Gulf war is now a global crisis: Russia, China emerge as winners

“The war between the US-Israel alliance and Iran is now into its third week and is escalating in scale and intensity. Israel is working on a script that it has long prepared and which follows lessons it has learned in the other conflicts it has been engaged in ever since its birth in 1948 as a sovereign nation implanted in the heart of Palestine… There is a sense of urgency driving the effort to neutralise Iran as a major actor in the region for which US military and economic support are critical. Benjamin Netanyahu’s success lies in convincing US President Donald Trump that the destruction of the Iranian revolutionary regime would be a quick and easy win and that a more pliant leadership could be installed in Tehran to follow the dictates of the US and Israel… Iran understands this playbook only too well and is responding with a well-crafted strategy of its own. The one country that has no strategic at all and no endgame to pursue in the US… India has a strategic partnership with Israel, which has emerged as a source of high technology and a security and defense partner. But it may now be time to question the price India is paying for Israel’s disregard of the serious undermining of India’s energy security, the risks to the safety of its nine million-strong diaspora in the Gulf, and the security challenges that are likely to follow from the long-term destabilisation of its western neighbourhood.” Read more: Shyam Saran, Business Standard

• US Official Calls Rules-based Order a ‘Gauzy Abstraction’, Recasts India Ties in Hard-nosed Terms

“US under secretary of war for policy Elbridge Colby dismissed the rules-based international order as a “gauzy abstraction” in New Delhi on Tuesday (March 24), the second senior Trump administration official this month to deliver pointed messaging about the terms of the India-US relationship in the Indian capital this month… The remarks came three weeks after US deputy secretary of state Christopher Landau, speaking at the Raisina Dialogue on March 5, said the US would not repeat “the same mistakes” it made with China two decades ago when dealing with India, warning that Washington would ensure any economic engagement remained “fair to our people”… The two episodes come against the backdrop of a turbulent bilateral relationship. In August 2025, the US imposed 50% tariffs on India, a 25% ‘reciprocal’ tariff compounded by an additional 25% ‘penalty’ tied to India’s continued purchases of Russian crude, among the highest levied on any US trading partner… Colby’s dismissal of the rules-based order, which the US-led West had established after the Second World War, was delivered at the close of a speech that repeatedly emphasised realism and interests. It marked a notable departure from the language that has consistently framed India-US engagement over the past two decades.” Read more: Devirupa Mitra, The Wire

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People & Politics:

• ‘The Voice of Hind Rajab’ Censored in India Amid Fears Theatrical Release ‘Would Break Up the India-Israel Relationship’

“The Indian theatrical release of Kaouther Ben Hania’s Oscar-nominated feature “The Voice of Hind Rajab,” which was planned for this month, is being blocked by the country’s Central Board of Film Certification (CBFC) for political reasons, according to the film’s local distributor. “The Voice of Hind Rajab” — which tells the story of a real 5-year-old Palestinian girl who was trapped inside a car attacked by Israeli forces in Gaza and later found dead — is being censored by the CBFC because “the film is very sensitive,” distributor Manoj Nandwana, who heads Mumbai-based Jai Viratra Entertainment, tells Variety. Nadawana said he screened “The Voice of Hind Rajab” for the CBFC in February, when he submitted the film for censorship approval, and was planning a March 6 Indian release “because we thought it was a good date ahead of the March 16 Oscars.” Instead, the film has not been cleared for release and he was told by a CBFC member that “if it gets released it would break up the India-Israel relationship,” Nadawana said… “I told them: the India-Israel relationship is so strong that it’s idiotic to think this movie will break it,” Nadawana added, further noting that “The Voice of Hind Rajab” has been released “in the U.S., U.K., Italy, France and many other countries that have a relationship with Israel.”… “But they want to censor it anyway,” the distributor said. The CBFC did not respond to a request for comment from Variety.” Read more: Nick Vivarelli, Variety

• Former CJI Ranjan Gogoi’s Rajya Sabha term concludes: 53% attendance, spoke in 1 debate, asked zero questions

“Ranjan Gogoi, former Chief Justice of India, completed his six-year term as a nominated member in the Upper House of Parliament on March 16… Rajya Sabha record showed Gogoi was absent — the attendance register was not signed as of Monday evening, as per the Digital Sansad portal. His overall attendance in his six-year tenure stood at 53%. The average for all members is 80%. The Sansad record showed he asked no questions; introduced no private member’s bills, and spoke in one debate. Gogoi was nominated to the Rajya Sabha just six months after his retirement after serving as the CJI for 13 months, superannuating after an illustrious career involving cases such as the Ayodhya Ram Mandir land dispute. He became the first ex-CJI to have been nominated to the Rajya Sabha, leading to some questions over propriety. He said his acceptance of the nomination was based on a need for the legislature and the judiciary to “meet at one point of time”… Up to 2021, the first year or so of his tenure, his attendance was barely around 10%. When asked about it in an NDTV interview at the time, he'd said he had informed the chairperson that “because of Covid (pandemic), on medical advice, I am not attending the session”. He had noted that as a nominated member, he was “not governed by any party”: “I go there at my choice, and I come out at my choice." Read more: Aarish Chhabra, Hindustan Times

• Law student says university wants him to delete post on SC NCERT row—‘ready to face action, court not god’

“The Tamil Nadu National Law University has allegedly asked a final-year law student to remove a Substack post criticising the Supreme Court, citing the institution’s “reputation” and the “best interest” of the university and the student. The move came in response to the 14 March post by the student, Rishi Kumar, in which he questioned the legality of the top court’s decision to ban an NCERT school textbook with a chapter referring to “corruption in the judiciary” and the blacklisting of three academics involved in drafting the chapter. The student has put up the university’s purported email on his Substack. “The data on judicial corruption in India is not hard to find. It is literally everywhere. I made a four page list of such news reports in 10 minutes,” he wrote in his post, adding that the “apotheosis of judiciary has to stop”. Kumar said he made it “unequivocally clear” that he would not comply with the email directing the “immediate takedown” of his personal Substack titled ‘The Supreme Court of India Has No Spine’, saying he was ready to face “disciplinary” action… In its response to ThePrint’s queries, Tamil Nadu National Law University said it “did not issue any directive or mandate requiring the student to take down the article”. “The communication referred to by the student was in the nature of a request and advisory, made in good faith,” it added.” Read more: Ruchi Bhattar, ThePrint

• Barbers shut doors amid caste conflict in Karnataka’s Ballari

“A caste conflict has sharply fractured social cohesion at Kolagallu village of Ballari taluk, with its ripple effects disrupting everyday life and pushing small livelihoods to the brink. For the past few weeks, all eight barber shops in the village have remained shut, following the friction between Kuruba, Valmiki and Madiga communities. What began as a localised dispute has now evolved into a deep social divide, with residents unwilling to engage with one another. Barbers, who serve all sections of society, “we are stuck in between. If we attend to customers from one community, it invites objections from the other”. Barbers said they decided to shut their businesses to avoid backlash from either side, and will reopen only after normalcy returns… Kolagallu has long been regarded as a caste-sensitive village. Incidents involving community clashes have earlier been reported, especially between Kuruba and Madiga groups. Police said, the current flare-up traces back to an altercation at a bar, in March first week, reportedly involving caste-based abuse. A case has since been registered at the Ballari Rural Police Station.” Read more: Kiran Balannanavar, The New Indian Express

Tech:

• Looking Beyond Individual Privacy: Limits of Personal Data Protection in the Face of New Harms

“India released its Digital Personal Data Protection Rules (‘Rules’) in November 2025, and is now poised for the enforcement of its Digital Personal Data Protection Act, 2023 (‘Act’). The fundamental basis of data protection laws (in India and elsewhere), including the Act, is premised on the idea of individual control over personal data enabled through the notion of ‘informed consent’… In view of the wide ranging forms of big data and the proliferation of algorithmic processing of data, this post investigates whether traditional data protection regimes are effective in tackling emerging concerns regarding privacy and data protection, with a focus on India’s data protection approach. Under the Indian Act, personal data are defined as “any data about an individual who is identifiable by or in relation to such data.”… Although this definition may be interpreted broadly, the scope seems to be restricted to data that identifies an individual. This may result in the negation of inferences possible through sophisticated and expansive forms of algorithmic data processing (including Big Data processes) and mass data collection, derived from mixed data sets containing both personal data (relating to an individual) and non-personal data (which might be in aggregate form)… Such processing of data can in turn reinforce biased or discriminatory profiling or decision-making, and thus invade privacy.” Read more: Sukriti and Palash Srivastava, IConnect

• India’s desi-GPS NAVIC is defunct; strategic capability lost

“India's strategic NAVIC (Navigation with Indian Constellation) series of satellites, designed, built and maintained by the national Space agency ISRO, are defunct. The NAVIC series of satellites is meant to provide Position, Navigation & Timing services for civilian and military users within India and 1,500 km beyond the country's borders. Theoretically, a bare minimum of four satellites is required for the functioning of NAVIC. At present, barely 3 of 11 NAVIC satellites are fulfilling their core purpose, publicly available information reveals… India faced GPS-denial (reduced GPS accuracy) during the 1999 war against Pakistan, which hindered the Indian military from deftly navigating the treacherous Himalayan region, and affected the ability to conduct precision strikes at will on enemy positions. Faced with this strategic vulnerability and foreign dependence, the Indian Government planned to set up its own alternative to the American GPS. America operates GPS, China operates Beidou, Europe operates Galileo, and Russia operates GLONASS. NAVIC was designed to be India's sovereign alternative to these services… Of the eight that were placed in space, five satellites suffered failures in critical components known as atomic clocks… In 2025, responding to a Right to Information(RTI) query, ISRO said that five(1A, 1C, 1D, 1E,1G) of eight IRNSS satellites suffered failure in all three on-board atomic clocks.” Read more: Sidharth MP, WION

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Bonus:

• Access Jawaharlal Nehru’s writings, speeches, etc., along with related documents, visual material and audios at The Nehru Archive | Fully searchable and can be freely downloaded | Project by The Jawaharlal Nehru Memorial Fund

Watch/listen:

• ‘A New Star Rises: India’s Potential and Promise’ | Fareed Zakaria delivers the OP Jindal Distinguished Lecture at the Watson School of International and Public Affairs, Brown University

• Why Are So Many Indian Workers Feeling Burnt Out? | CNA Insider

• Govt to bring solar ingots, wafers under ALMM from June 2028

“The Ministry of New & Renewable Energy (MNRE) said on Wednesday that it has expanded the ALMM Order to include ingots and wafers, which will take effect from June 1, 2028. Suitable grandfathering provisions have been built in to protect projects already in the pipeline… India’s Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) Order, 2019 is a quality-and-reliability framework that ensures solar equipment used in the country’s solar projects meet the domestic manufacturing standards. It applies for projects awarded through competitive bidding under Sec 63,Electricity Act,2003 and for net-metering or open-access projects… Sharing similar views, Prashant Mathur, CEO of Saatvik Green Energy, noted that the policy vindicates the foresight of companies that invested early in integrated, end-to-end domestic manufacturing… From June1, 2028 all projects must use ALMM-listed wafers including Net metering/ open access projects… Manufacturers seeking enlistment in ALMM List-III for wafers, must also have equivalent ingot manufacturing capacity, promoting upstream integration for ingots… This Order does not dilute or override any Domestic Content Requirement (DCR) provisions under the existing MNRE schemes.” Read more: The Hindu Businessline

• Ward-level plans bring climate action closer to communities

“On a February morning earlier this year, residents of Jakkur ward in north Bengaluru, Karnataka, trickled in at the open-air podium outside the Jakkur Post Office. The residents — young, old, students, retired professionals, informal workers, building representatives — paused at maps mounted on easels and walls, and interactive audio-visual displays… This gathering was for one of the five public consultations for climate action at five different wards under the Greater Bengaluru Authority (GBA), the apex body responsible for coordinating and planning the city’s overall development and activities… Bengaluru started preparing a climate action plan as a part of its membership in the C40 Cities network. Bengaluru Climate Action Plan (BCAP) was launched in 2023, making it one of the first few Indian cities to have a plan compliant with the Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories (GPC)… In 2025, the GBA became the first Indian municipality to pioneer the working of ward-level Climate Action Plans (WCAP). Besides gathering evidence from the ground-up, a core component of the Bengaluru WCAP pilot has been public consultations and identifying projects that improve liveability in the city… The Bengaluru WCAP experiment unfolds as the city faces a major governance transition and impending municipal elections later this year.” Read more: Mahima Jain, Mongabay India

• India’s 35 GW of renewables at risk of curtailment, warns Crisil Ratings

“More than 35 GW of renewable energy capacity in India could face grid curtailment risk in fiscal 2027 due to limited long-term transmission access, Crisil Ratings said in a newly released report. The risk stems from rapid capacity additions outpacing transmission infrastructure deployment… Solar-led capacity additions are increasing surplus daytime generation, raising evacuation constraints. Projects operating under temporary general network access (TGNA) accounted for 80% of total curtailment between April and December 2025 and saw 39% of capacity curtailed from November 2025 to February 2026… Projects with long-term general network access (LT GNA) benefit from dedicated transmission infrastructure, multi-year access, and priority scheduling, while TGNA projects typically lack firm connectivity and face higher curtailment risk… High curtailment levels can materially affect project performance. A 50% curtailment sustained over 12 months could reduce DSCR by up to 10 basis points and equity IRR by up to 150 basis points.” Read more: Uma Gupta, PV Magazine

• Mumbai Among World’s Top Ten Megacities With Unusual Temperatures Due To Climate Change Over Last Three Months

“Human-induced climate change caused 228 million people to experience 30 or more days of ‘risky heat days’ in a span of just three months – from December 2025 to February 2026, according to a scientific analysis published on March 18… Climate Central, an independent group of scientists and communicators who research and report on climate change and its impacts, examined the prevalence of risky heat days, temperature anomalies (warmer or cooler conditions than the 1991-2020 average) and changes in values of the Climate Shift Index (CSI) across the world from December 2025 to February 2026… The report lists Mumbai as one of the 10 megacities (among the 20 analysed in the report) across the world that witnessed “unusual temperatures that were strongly influenced by climate change”. Mumbai had a CSI level of 2 or higher for 17 days – suggesting that the city experienced unusual temperatures strongly influenced by climate change for 17 days in the three months… These findings come even as experts have already warned that India is going to be witnessing a particularly warm summer this year.” Read more: The Wire

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Economy:

• Rupee crashes 23 paise to close at record low of 92.63 against US dollar

“The rupee slumped 23 paise to close at a record low of 92.63 (provisional) against the US dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger greenback and sustained FII outflows. Elevated crude oil prices in global markets amid intensifying conflict in West Asia further dampened sentiments, forex traders said… The rupee logged its record intra-day low of 92.65 during the session. Earlier on Tuesday, the domestic hit its previous lowest intra-day level of 92.47 against the dollar before settling at an all-time low of 92.40… Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.05 per cent higher at 99.62. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading flat at USD 103.4 per barrel in futures trade. On the domestic equity market front, the Sensex settled higher by 633.29 points, or 0.83 per cent, to 76,704.13, while the Nifty also rose sharply by 196.65 points, or 0.83 per cent, to 23,777.80.” Read more: The Hindu Businessline

• Iran war threatens India’s ‘Goldilocks’ economy

“The US-Israeli war on Iran has exposed India’s vulnerability on multiple fronts, threatening the world’s fastest-expanding major economy’s “Goldilocks” combination of strong growth and low inflation… India depends on Gulf nations not only for oil and gas but for everything from flight connections to fertiliser. Nearly 10mn Indians work in the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries, sending home over $51bn a year in remittances, while the GCC is India’s biggest trading bloc and a major source of foreign investment… Prolonged conflict in the Gulf could disrupt energy supplies to India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, while widening its trade deficit and pushing up domestic prices… “Even if we have a very robust macro position in terms of high growth and low inflation, I do not think the financial buffers the economy currently has are as robust to deal with a shock like this,” said Dhiraj Nim, an India economist at ANZ Group… Kunal Kundu, India economist at Société Générale, estimated that a sustained post-conflict $10 increase in oil prices would widen India’s current account deficit, currently forecast to be around 1 per cent of GDP in the year ending March 2027, by about half a percentage point. It would also cut economic growth by 0.3 per cent, Kundu said.” Read more: Michael Stott and Chris Kay, Financial Times

• India’s Falling FX Buffer Prompts Calls for Softer Rupee Defense

“The Reserve Bank of India’s recent defense of the rupee is weighing on the nation’s foreign exchange reserves, prompting calls from some analysts to scale back future intervention. India’s forex assets, excluding gold, are now just enough to cover for 8.7 months of imports, the lowest in three years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg… The more the RBI intervenes, the lesser firepower it will be left with, which can lead to more problems if the ongoing crisis in the Middle East continues, said Indranil Pan, chief economist at Yes Bank Ltd… In recent weeks, the RBI has stepped up intervention in the currency market to shield the rupee, which is hovering near its record low of 92.4788 per dollar hit Friday…India needs a forex reserve buffer of at least $1 trillion to ensure robust intervention capacity, according to former RBI deputy governor Michael Patra. The RBI’s ammunition to support the rupee is lower after accounting for its outstanding dollar sales, with its forward book at $67.8 billion at the end of January.” Read more: Pratibha Vajpayee, Bloomberg

• State of Working India 2026: Youth in the Labour Market - Pathways from learning to earning

“India’s youth population, defined as those between the ages of 15 to 29, is the largest in the world. The 367 million people in this age group account for a third of the country’s working age population. The extent to which this large, increasingly educated and aspirational cohort is productively absorbed into the labour market will determine whether this massive, and continuing demographic dividend translates into an economic dividend. Whether this will materialise or not will depend on the education and skills of Indian youth and the opportunities available to them in the labour market… In the post-Covid period India’s employed population has increased from 490 million to 572 million, with employment rates rising from 71 to 74 percent for men and from 26 to 34 percent for women, between 2021-22 and 2023-24. But the majority of employment creation has been in agriculture. Of the 83 million jobs added between 2021-22 and 2023-24, 40 million have been in agriculture, with women accounting for a large share (38 million). The number of women in own-account self-employment has seen a nearly four-fold increase since 2017… The 15 to 29 year olds, India’s youth, number about 367 million and account for nearly a third of the working age population. Of them, 263 million are not in education and constitute the potential workforce… The share of young men in education fell from 38% in 2017 to 34% in late 2024, with a large share citing the need to support household incomes as reason for their withdrawal.” Read more: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University

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Foreign Policy & Security:

• India hails talks with Iran to open Strait of Hormuz

“India has hailed its direct talks with Iran as the most effective way to restart shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, after Donald Trump called on countries to send warships to help the US force open the critical waterway for energy markets…India’s foreign minister S Jaishankar told the FT that negotiations between New Delhi and Tehran which allowed for two Indian-flagged gas tankers to pass through the Strait on Saturday were an example of what diplomacy could bring. “I am at the moment engaged in talking to them and my talking has yielded some results,” he said in an interview. “This is ongoing. If it is yielding results for me, I would naturally continue to look at it.” “Certainly, from India’s perspective, it is better that we reason and we co-ordinate and we get a solution than we don’t,” he added. “So if that sort of allows other people to engage, I think the world is better off for it.”… France and Italy are among European countries that have opened talks with Tehran about a possible diplomatic solution that would allow for energy shipments to restart… “Each relationship frankly, in a way stands on its own merits,” he said when asked if European countries could ape India’s arrangement… Jaishankar said there was no “blanket arrangement” with Iran for Indian-flagged ships and that “every ship movement is an individual happening”… “These are still early days. We have many more ships there. So while this is a welcome development, there is continuing conversation because there is continued work on that,” he added.” Read more: Henry Foy, Financial Times

• India Sends Warships Near Gulf of Oman to Escort Its Fuel Ships

“India is sending additional warships to the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea to ensure the safe passage of its vessels in anticipation that Iran may allow more of its fuel tankers to exit the Strait of Hormuz, people familiar with the matter said. The Indian Navy is deploying over half a dozen warships, including logistics vessels to the area as a precautionary measure, the people said, asking not to be identified as the discussions are private… India secured the safe transit of two state-owned tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas in recent days and is negotiating with Iran for several more fuel ships to be allowed through… New Delhi hasn’t responded directly to US President Donald Trump’s demand that other countries send battleships to the strait to help ships pass through… India’s longstanding policy is to participate in international military operations under a United Nations mandate, rather than aligning with unilateral actions of individual countries. It’s not unusual for India to send warships to protect commercial vessels in conflict zones. In 2024, the navy deployed at least a dozen ships to the Arabian Sea following piracy attacks linked to Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen… There are 22 India-flagged vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf, including six LPG carriers, one ship carrying liquefied natural gas and four crude oil tankers, according to government officials.” Read more: Sudhi Ranjan Sen, Bloomberg

• Govt rejects USCIRF report calling for sanctions on RAW, RSS

“Govt “categorically” rejected as motivated and biased the characterisation of India in the latest US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) report that alleged deterioration of religious freedom in India and sought its designation as a country of particular concern. The report has also called for sanctions on Research & Analysis Wing and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh for their “responsibility and tolerance of severe violations of religious freedom by freezing those individuals’ or entities assets’ and/or barring their entry into US”… “For several years now, USCIRF had persisted in presenting a distorted and selective picture of India, relying on questionable sources and ideological narratives rather than objective facts. Such repeated misrepresentations only undermine the credibility of the commission itself,” said MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal… USCIRF is an independent, bipartisan US federal govt agency. It makes policy recommendations to the US president, secretary of state, and Congress and tracks the implementation of these recommendations.” Read more: Times of India

• Trump official Elbridge Colby’s visit this month to revive India-US defence ties

“Top US defence official Elbridge Colby is expected to visit India at the head of a US delegation towards the end of March to inject momentum into India-US defence relations after months of diplomatic tensions… Colby, who serves as Undersecretary of War for Policy, is widely seen as one of the key figures behind the making of US defence policy in Trump’s second term. This will be his first visit to India and follows closely on the heels of visits by senior US military officials including Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo and US Space Command chief General Stephen Whiting… The India-US defence partnership has continued to progress despite broader tensions that built up in the relationship over the course of 2025…. According to news reports, India will also consider procuring six additional P-8I maritime reconnaissance aircraft manufactured by US defence giant Boeing. The two sides will likely push forward efforts by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited and America’s General Electric for the co-production of GE F414 jet engines in India.” Read more: Shashank Mattoo, Hindustan Times

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People & Politics:

• Religion should act as a unifying force in society: UP CM Yogi Adityanath

“Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath on Monday said religion should act as a unifying force in society and warned against growing casteism. Addressing an event at Sire Mandir in Rajasthan’s Jalore district, Adityanath said that while the caste system was historically meant to organise society, casteism weakens the social fabric and divides the nation. He alleged that previous governments had pursued politics based on caste, region and language, which weakened the country and contributed to issues such as unrest in Kashmir, Naxalism and social conflicts… Targeting earlier governments, Adityanath said they often viewed India’s spiritual traditions as regressive. He described India as a unique civilisation shaped by the spiritual traditions of saints and sages, as well as the bravery of warriors and the hard work of farmers, artisans and labourers.” Read more: Hindustan Times

• West Asia Shock Ripples Through India’s Kitchens, Factories and Supply Chains

“The mood is tense in Malur Industrial Area. About 45 kilometres to the east of Bengaluru, it has a melange of small and medium industrial units. Walking through it, you will see firms making diverse products — laboratory glassware, farm equipment, steel products and plastics… Even as India worries about shortages of cooking gas, industries are starting to worry about something else — the raw materials that come from petroleum… Even in this cluster in Bengaluru, where four of the seven firms CarbonCopy spoke to run on electricity, apprehension is rising. “We run on electricity and, as of now, there are no issues with power supply,” said Naveen Paul D’Cunha, the director of Akshay Enterprises, a sheet metal fabricator. But he is starting to get worried. “If oil prices go up, so will paint prices,” he told CarbonCopy. “Until $110, paint prices might not be affected too much. But if it goes higher, the cost of paint will go up.” If that happens, firms like his will have to take those costs onto their margins — or pass them to customers, potentially losing sales… Given India’s low strategic reserves for LNG and LPG, the conflict’s knock-on effects were first felt by users of these two fuels. By March 7, gas agencies like Bharat Gas Agency in Delhi’s Amar Colony neighbourhood had been told to stop supplying gas for commercial purposes.” Read more: M. Rajshekhar, Paridhi Choudhary and Shaswata Kundu Chaudhuri, CarbonCopy

• Delhi court orders immediate release of 14 JNU students given bail last week

“A Delhi court on Sunday ordered the immediate release of 14 students who were granted bail on Friday in connection with the violence during Jawaharlal Nehru University Students’ Union (JNUSU) protests last week. Judicial Magistrate (First Class) Ravi of Patiala House Courts noted that the right to liberty needs to be balanced with legitimate interests of the state. The students were arrested on Thursday following violence near the main entrance of the university during a protest organised by the JNUSU from the campus to the ministry of education, demanding the vice-chancellor’s resignation over her alleged caste-related remarks in a recent podcast interview… While granting bail to the students, judicial magistrate Animesh Kumar had observed that while assaulting police personnel was a serious offence, the accused were students with their careers ahead of them… The counsels subsequently moved an application before court, seeking their immediate release without insisting on prior verification of their permanent address. Their counsels, led by advocate Abhik Chimni and Sidharth Ganeshan, argued that the accused could not be kept behind bars indefinitely only because the police machinery requires time to verify their sureties.” Read more: Arnabjit Sur, Hindustan Times

• LPG shortage forces four Atal Canteens to shut, city’s poor lose their subsidised Rs-5 meals

“On December 25, Chief Minister Rekha Gupta inaugurated the first Atal Canteen at Pratap Camp in Nehru Nagar in South Delhi, where people could get wholesome meals for lunch and dinner for just Rs 5. On Monday afternoon, this canteen was shut – put out of service by the war in West Asia and the ongoing crisis of cooking fuel. At least two other Atal Canteens – in Kalkaji and Anna Nagar near ITO – were also shut… Forty-five Atal Canteens were inaugurated on the birth anniversary of former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee last year. The government subsequently ramped up the number to 73 – and aims to have a total 100 such canteens across the city… P K Jha, principal director of the Delhi Urban Shelter Improvement Board (DUSIB), the organisation that is responsible for implementing the government’s welfare scheme, said that four Atal Canteens – the three visited by The Indian Express and a fourth one in R K Puram – were shut because the catering agency that operates them had run out of gas… Officials said 45,000 meals are served for lunch and dinner daily at the Atal Canteens around the city. The caterer responsible for running the four canteens that have been shut for the past two days said: “We need 7-8 cylinders of LPG every day. We have not been getting this supply now. We had applied for a PNG connection before the inauguration, but this has not happened yet.” Outside the Kalkaji canteen, 45-year-old Babar Ali said that after skipping three meals, he had finally spent Rs 300 to get a kg of LPG for his cylinder.” Read more: Drishti Jain, Indian Express

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Tech:

• India’s satellite navigation needs a reset

“INDIA’s indigenous satellite navigation system, called Navigation with Indian Constellation (NavIC), is gasping for breath in space. Just two years ago, the Ministry of Science and Technology had described it as “a magnificent gem in the crown of India’s technological prowess” and “a beacon of self-reliance, shining brightly in the world of satellite navigation”. With information trickling out of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) about the current state of its navigation satellites, NavIC has turned out to be a classic case of overpromising and underdelivering. The need for developing an Indian navigation system was felt in the wake of the 1999 Kargil war, during which the availability of signals from the US-operated GPS navigation system posed operational challenges. Although the Indian region is well-positioned to receive signals from GPS and other regional navigation satellite systems, it was considered prudent to develop an indigenous regional navigation system from the perspective of strategic autonomy… Overall, the commercial and public utilisation of NavIC has remained low. India’s mobile phone market currently has some 20 major brands and 700 phone models. In December 2025, Parliament was informed that more than 60 smartphone models from various manufacturers supported NavIC, but the total number of users with NavIC-enabled phones was not disclosed.” Read more: Dinesh C. Sharma, Tribune

• Parliamentary Panel Calls for Mandatory Platform-Led e-Shram Registration of Gig Workers

“The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Labour recommends “that all aggregators should mandatorily register gig workers on the e-Shram Portal, and engagement of such workers should be linked to this registration.“ The Centre previously encouraged gig and platform workers to self-register on the e-Shram portal to access social security benefits. MediaNama had reported that the lack of deadlines and limited awareness left many workers at risk of exclusion, placing the bulk of the registration responsibility on individuals rather than on e-commerce platforms… Earlier in January this year, it was reported that the progress on e-Shram registration has been uneven across states, with larger states like Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh seeing relatively higher enrolment of platform workers, while smaller states like Mizoram and Sikkim continue to lag significantly…The committee also acknowledged the fragmented nature of gig work, in which workers often switch platforms or work intermittently… Previous reports indicate that the labour codes—brought into effect in November 2025—mark the first time gig workers are formally included within India’s labour law framework. They also introduce a statutory requirement for aggregator platforms to contribute 1–2% of their annual turnover to a social security fund for gig workers.” Read more: Ann Mary Peter, Medianama

• India’s Top Bank Avoids Russian Oil Payments Despite U.S. Sanctions Waiver

“State Bank of India, the largest lender in the country, continues to shun processing payments for purchases of Russian oil despite the temporary U.S. waiver for India to buy Russia’s crude stashed in floating storage in Asia, sources with knowledge of the situation have told Bloomberg. State Bank of India (SBI) is unwilling to risk its reputation amid uncertainties about how long the waiver, currently for one month, would last… At the end of last year, after the major crude flow shake-up with the U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top producers and exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil, some Indian banks were already considering financing Russian oil trades that involve only non-sanctioned entities and sanctions-compliant pricing and payments… India, the world’s third-largest crude importer, depends on Middle East supply for about 60% of its imports, and the de facto halted tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has put severe pressure on its supplies. So the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) last week issued a general license to India for Indian refiners to buy Russian crude loaded on any vessel, including blocked vessels, on or before March 5, 2026, until April 4, 2026.” Read more: Charles Kennedy, OilPrice

• India, Bangladesh Urea Firms Shut Units as War Cuts LNG Flow

“Some urea producers in India and Bangladesh have shut down plants or moved up annual maintenance after Qatari supplies of liquefied natural gas, a key feedstock, were suspended due to the Iran war. Manufacturers, including top producer Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Ltd., have either halted some of their facilities or started routine upkeep, according to people familiar with the matter. Restarting a paused plant could take as long as a month, provided LNG supplies resume, they added, asking not to be named because the matter is private… Any long-drawn halt to LNG supplies could force India — the world’s top importer of urea — to ramp up purchases, pushing up global prices and hampering government efforts to trim its subsidy burden. Fertilizer demand peaks during the monsoon season that begins in June… The government has taken measures to ensure that at least 70% of the average LNG needs of fertilizer makers are met while the Middle East conflict snarls supply, a spokesperson for the fertilizer ministry said.” Read more: Pratik Parija and Arun Devnath, Bloomberg

• Carbon capture risks leading Indian steel down a technological dead end

“The ₹20,000 crore ($2.2 billion) of support for carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) for industry announced in the recent 2026 Union Budget risks leading India’s steel sector down a path towards high emissions and rising energy security risk. The track record of CCUS demonstrates it has no capacity to adequately reduce steelmaking emissions… CCUS is not a new technology. Its implementation has been attempted around the world for decades, with a lengthy track record of failure and underperformance. Even the International Energy Agency (IEA) — historically optimistic about CCUS — now views its role in decarbonisation as minimal… Sinking billions into supporting CCUS projects looks unlikely to be an efficient use of government funding. In the steel industry, CCUS has an even more underwhelming track record. The only commercial-scale CCUS plant in the steel sector is the Al Reyadah plant in the United Arab Emirates. This plant captures only abouut 25 percent of total emissions. In the 10 years since it opened, no other commercial-scale CCUS plants for steelmaking have been built.” Read more: Simon Nicholas, Economic Times

• Centre boosts Powergrid equity threshold to Rs 7,500 crore per subsidiary; move to support 500 GW non-fossil target by 2030

“The government has raised Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd’s (Powergird) equity investment ceiling in each subsidiary from Rs. 5,000 crore to Rs. 7,500 crore, in a move designed to bolster funding for large transmission projects and renewable energy evacuation. The cabinet committee on economic affairs (CCEA) chairs by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, approved the higher threshold under existing Maharana delegation guidelines, while retaining the overall cap of 15 percent of the company’s net worth… The higher limit expands Powergrid’s headroom to back capital-intensive transmission schemes, particularly ultra high voltage alternating current (UHVAC) and high voltage direct current (HVDC) corridors… Government officials said the additional financial flexibility will help Powergrid step up investment in transmission systems dedicated to evacuating renewable power, a critical enabler for India’s goal of 500 Gw of non-fossil capacity by 2030. Powergrid already handles the majority of inter-regional transfer capacity in the national grid and has facilitated the evacuation of over 110 GW of non-fossil energy, positioning it as a key player in the next leg of green capacity build-out.” Read more: Times of India

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Economy:

• India’s 20 years of GDP misestimation: New evidence

“This paper examines the GDP methodology introduced in January 2015, initially to the post 2011–12 numbers and later to the historical series. It explains why doubts about the GDP numbers arose, identifies the key methodological problems, and quantifies the bias they caused… The paper finds that after the 2015 methodology was introduced, correlations between GDP and key indicators that span sectors—exports, credit, taxes, electricity consumption, sales, and the index of industrial production — broke down or weakened… Why did this misestimation occur? The January 2015 methodology had two main problems: inappropriate data sources and inappropriate deflators. A large share of Gross Value Added (GVA) emanating from the informal sector was based on data from the formal sector, and a large share of GVA was deflated by indices that were driven not by the prices of the goods and services involved but rather by commodity prices, particularly oil prices… These methodological problems caused growth over the past two decades to be misestimated in both directions. Broadly, they caused growth for 2005–11 to be underestimated by about 1–1½ percentage points in the backcasting exercise; and caused subsequent growth to be overestimated by about 1½–2 percentage points. We estimate that from 2011 to 2023, the economy actually grew at 4–4½ percent on average instead of the 6 percent reported. Consequently, we find that instead of steady growth over the past two decades, there was a boom followed by slower but still robust growth.” Read more: Abhishek Anand, Josh Felman, and Arvind Subramanian, Peterson Institute for International Economics

• India Vows to Shield Energy Consumers From Iran War Fallout

“Indian officials pledged to protect consumers as the Iran conflict pushed oil prices above $100 and disrupted supplies, raising significant risks for the energy-importing economy. The country has enough oil reserves to weather the impact in the short run, government officials familiar with the matter said… With risks building, the government is monitoring the volatile situation to assess the implications for Asia’s third-largest economy and will consider measures to offset the impact if needed, the people familiar said… The world’s most populous nation, which imports nearly 90% of its oil, is highly exposed to rising prices. The central bank in 2025 estimated that a 10% rise in oil prices would push up inflation by about 30 basis points and trim economic growth by roughly 15 basis points, assuming the increase is fully passed on to consumers… Inflation has remained well within the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target for several months. However, analysts cautioned that the risks could build quickly. “The macro implications are wide-reaching, touching every aspect of the economy due to India’s extreme dependence on crude imports,” said Shumita Deveshwar, chief economist at GlobalData TS Lombard… India, the world’s third-largest LPG consumer, sources more than 90% of its imports from the Middle East. Much of that supply transits the Strait of Hormuz, which is now effectively closed to traffic, squeezing shipments of a fuel widely used for cooking across the country.” Read more: Swati Gupta and Shruti Srivastava, Bloomberg

• What the US and EU trade deals with India mean for the WTO

“If anything, trade agreements are increasingly multipolar, with no North Star, no central pillar, to ensure stability and predictability over chaos. The only multilateral trade body, the World Trade Organization (WTO), sits on the sidelines, openly questioning whether it has a role to fill in this new world order… Two recent agreements, involving three of the world’s four largest and most important economies and concluded outside the WTO, spell the challenges the WTO faces in reversing its slide in relevance. First came the agreement between the European Union (EU) and India on January 26. Just a few days later, on February 2, President Trump announced he had struck a deal with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the United States and India issued a joint statement with some details on February 6… In substance, it is difficult to provide a detailed comparison of the two agreements and an assessment of their implications because we do not have the final texts of the negotiated terms… As broad as the agreement appears to be from this summary, the EU clearly cut some corners and veered from its longstanding templates for FTAs to secure one with India. There is far less information available on the US-India deal, but it appears to be partial, tentative, and more free-form… There is no beating around the bush that the EU-India and US-India agreements, negotiated outside the WTO, undermine the foundations of the multilateral trading system.” Read more: Mark Linscott, Hinrich Foundation

• FPIs withdraw INR 21,000 cr in last 4 trading sessions amid West Asia conflict

“Foreign investors pulled out Rs 21,000 crore (around USD 2.3 billion) from Indian equities over the last four trading sessions amid deteriorating global risk sentiment triggered by the West Asia crisis. The latest sell-off comes after foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused Rs 22,615 crore into Indian equities in February, the highest monthly inflow in 17 months. Prior to that, FPIs had been net sellers for three consecutive months. They withdrew Rs 35,962 crore in January, Rs 22,611 crore in December, and Rs 3,765 crore in November, according to data from the depositories… Market experts attributed the pullout primarily to the rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia. The US and Israel launched a major attack on Iran on February 28 which killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering conflict in the region… Other factors contributing to the outflows include rupee depreciation beyond the 92-per-dollar level, elevated US Treasury yields drawing capital back to safe-haven assets, and mixed early outlook for Q4 FY26 corporate earnings, particularly margin pressures in the IT and consumption sectors, he added… Himanshu Srivastava, Principal Manager Research at Morningstar Investment Research India, noted that higher crude prices increase risks related to inflation, the current account deficit, and currency stability, which typically weigh on foreign investor sentiment toward emerging markets.” Read more: Outlook Business

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Foreign Policy & Security:

• A hush-hush visit last week lays groundwork for thaw in Delhi-Dhaka ties

“Within weeks of the new government assuming power in Dhaka, Bangladesh’s military intelligence chief Major General Mohammad Kaiser Rashid Chowdhury visited New Delhi and met with Parag Jain, chief of the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW), and others including Lieutenant General R.S. Raman, his Indian counterpart, in another step of normalisation of ties between the two countries… People familiar with the matter said Maj. Gen. Chowdhury met with the two officials and an understanding was reached about ensuring that neither country is used by individuals with interests “that are inimical to the other”, apart from opening channels of communication that were frozen for over 18 months… Since the ouster of the Sheikh Hasina-led government, a number of communication channels between India and Bangladesh were frozen, with conversations between the two countries largely routed through the offices of the National Security Advisers (NSA) until Rahman took office. Khalilur Rahman, former NSA of Bangladesh, remains in Tarique Rahman’s cabinet as Minister of Foreign Affairs, a sign of continuity in foreign policy under the new PM. Khalilur Rahman and India’s NSA Ajit Doval remained in touch throughout last year, even as political and economic ties between New Delhi and Dhaka soured under the interim regime led by Muhammad Yunus… India has in the last few months indicated its willingness to work with and normalise ties with Tarique Rahman’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).” Read more: Keshav Padmanabhan, ThePrint

• Iran-Israel War: Keep India out of Hormuz harm’s way

“Iran’s closure of the Hormuz Strait is a matter of critical importance to India, given that a significant portion of our oil and LNG is sourced from the Persian Gulf. An overwhelming majority of its hydrocarbon requirements are imported by sea - over 5 mn barrels of crude oil a day, accounting for more than 85% of domestic consumption… Prolonged instability in the Hormuz Strait will significantly impact availability of essential energy supplies across India’s industrial, commercial and domestic sectors. So, how should a responsible maritime nation safeguard its economic lifelines during periods of heightened instability? Protection of sea lines of communication (Slocs) has long been a foundational element of India’s maritime doctrine. Ability to safeguard these Slocs during periods of crisis is one of the fundamental tests of maritime power… Operation Sankalp, launched in 2019 to ensure the safety of Indian-flagged merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman after attacks on oil tankers, demonstrated that India possesses operational capability and institutional experience to safeguard its maritime trade routes when required… If India’s own maritime commerce were to require external protection in a theatre so closely linked to its national interests, it would raise uncomfortable questions about the extent to which India is prepared to shoulder responsibilities.” Read more: Karambir Singh, Economic Times

• The world must ensure Iran retains a functioning post-war state machinery

“Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid a highly publicised visit to Israel on February 25 and 26. His close and personal bond with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was on display, and a significant expansion of their multi-domain partnership was announced during the visit. On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale and unprovoked air and missile attack against Iran, killing Ayatollah Khamenie, Iran’s supreme leader, and several top clerical and state officials. In retrospect, the timing of the visit was unfortunate. Events had been building up to war with Iran for weeks… Was it that war was expected but that India put a wager on a swift Iranian defeat and its likely descent into American vassalage as in Mr Trump’s Venezuela model?… Why was there a reluctance to condemn the attack on Iran and the violation of its territorial integrity and sovereignty? There was not even a message of condolence on the death of Ayatollah Khamenei and it was only belatedly, on March 5, that the foreign secretary was dispatched to the Iranian embassy to sign the condolence book opened for the departed leader. Des this show that we are surprised by Iranian resilience in the face of a brutal campaign of death and destruction and that the state structures and authority remain in place? Are we beginning to hedge?” Read more: Shyam Saran, Business Standard

• Maritime chokepoints: India’s energy and trade vulnerabilities and strategic responses

“Despite rapid naval modernisation and increasingly active maritime diplomacy, India’s exposure to maritime chokepoints – narrow sea routes through which a very large share of the world’s trade and energy supplies move – remains deep and largely unavoidable… Research shows that when these routes are disrupted, the effects are felt quickly in everyday economic outcomes such as fuel prices, inflation, and government finances, especially in countries that depend heavily on imported energy. Non-State actors further amplify this vulnerability. Piracy, maritime crime, and militant activity do not need to close a strait completely to cause damage… A historical perspective shows that India’s vulnerability to maritime chokepoints has increased sharply over time. In the decades following independence, the Indian economy remained relatively inward-looking, with limited trade integration and modest energy imports. During the 1970s and 1980s, India’s trade openness remained below 20% of GDP (gross domestic product), and crude oil import dependence was around 30-35%. As a result, while maritime security was strategically relevant, it did not occupy a central place in macroeconomic policymaking. This situation changed decisively after economic liberalisation in the early 1990s… In the post-liberalisation era, however, this vulnerability has deepened structurally, transforming maritime chokepoints from peripheral strategic concerns into central determinants of India’s macroeconomic stability.” Read more: Srishti Gupta and Roshan Soni, Ideas for India

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People & Politics:

• Delhi water crisis: Troubled waters in city’s taps; 44% samples fail safety test

“A day in any Delhi household begins with an act of trust: turning on the tap. Millions of people assume that the water flowing out is safe. Other than daily washing and cleaning needs, this water fills bottles for schoolchildren, goes into morning tea, and is used in the food we eat (water purifiers are still not as ubiquitous as most people think they are). But a seven-day sampling exercise conducted by Hindustan Times at 18 complaint-prone locations suggests this trust may not always be warranted. Laboratory analysis found that nearly 44% of the samples violated basic microbiological safety standards… Laboratory analysis revealed that eight samples tested positive for total coliform or E. coli – indicators commonly associated with faecal contamination in drinking water… The problem appeared concentrated inside neighbourhood pipelines. West Delhi’s Rajouri Garden recorded the highest contamination levels, followed closely by Chilla village in east Delhi and DDA flats in Mayur Vihar Phase 3. In contrast, several pockets in south and central Delhi tested clean… Strikingly, three of these domestic samples did not meet even the threshold for “bathing water”… To be sure, none of the publicly accessible sources tested – a water vending machine at Connaught Place, a sweets shop in Kamla Nagar, a water cooler at Hindu Rao Hospital or a Delhi Jal Board (DJB) tanker in Chilla village – showed any microbial contamination.” Read more: Paras Singh, Jasjeev Gandhi, Jignasa Sinha, Hemani Bhandari, Gargi Shukla and Aaditya Khatwani, Hindustan Times

• Reliance Goes From Trump Foe to Friend With Refinery Pledge

“In one move, Reliance Industries Ltd. has reset its relationship with Donald Trump. Billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s conglomerate is in talks with America First Refining, with options ranging from an equity stake to offtake agreements or broader strategic partnerships, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified as the information is private… Although it didn’t name Reliance, Washington had last year accused India’s politically connected energy titans of war profiteering through purchases of discounted Russian crude. But on Tuesday, President Trump announced the Brownsville project, calling it “the FIRST new U.S. Oil Refinery in 50 YEARS” and thanking Reliance for its role… The recent developments follow a period of intensive engagement by the Reliance leadership, which helped secure the 30-day Russian oil purchase waiver and made progress on deals involving Venezuelan interests, the people said.” Read more: P R Sanjai and Rakesh Sharma, Bloomberg

• Chargesheeted by CBI, Former Odisha MP Quits BJD, Joins BJP Day Before Court Hearing

“Former Balasore MP and Biju Janata Dal (BJD) leader Rabindra Kumar Jena on Wednesday (March 11) formally joined the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Odisha. Jena joined the party along with his supporters, at the BJP’s state headquarters in Bhubaneswar, reported Hindustan Times. Notably, Jena joined the saffron party a day before a scheduled CBI court hearing on March 12, wherein the CBI has filed a chargesheet against Jena for his alleged involvement in the Seashore chit fund scam in Odisha… Earlier on Tuesday (March 10), Jena had resigned from BJD’s primary membership, citing “personal causes and circumstances” in his letter to party supremo Naveen Patnaik… The BJD had fielded his wife, Subasini Jena, the incumbent BJD MLA from Basta once again from the constituency in the 2024 Assembly elections. She had won by a margin of over 20,000 votes against Congress candidate Bijan Nayak… Jena said that while he held BJD supremo Patnaik in high regard. Jena said that a regional party could not survive without passing the baton to the next generation of leaders. Jena added that he had raised with the BJD leadership on multiple occasions, without result.” Read more: The Wire

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Tech:

• India targets chip design self-reliance, eyes Indian MNC talent

“India is working towards becoming independent in designing and producing sophisticated microchips under its semiconductor mission, while also attracting Indian professionals with chip-design experience at multinational companies (MNCs), NITI Aayog member Vijay Kumar Saraswat said… Saraswat also said that specific features and the incentive structure under the second phase of the India Semiconductor Mission announced in Union budget 2026 are being worked out… In the budget for 2026-27 the Centre announced a second tranche of sops under the mission, five years after rolling out the first INR 76,000-crore programme… India’s push to build domestic capabilities in semiconductors and critical minerals, which are vital for IT, clean energy and defense sectors, comes at a time tech is increasingly shaping industrial and military power in a deglobalizing world.” Read more: Gireesh Chandra Prasad, Mint

• India’s tech sovereignty is built on digital dependence

“India’s computing history is punctuated by moments of possibility, each representing a road not taken. What began as a genuine struggle for technological sovereignty has mutated into its inverse: a technological nationalism that celebrates the very forms of dependence it once sought to overcome. Silicon Valley’s relationship with India epitomizes this transformation. It draws talent from India’s skilled labor pool and treats the country as a captive market for its products, cloaking this dependency in the noble language of digital progress. India’s elite technocrats, in their single-minded search for technological solutions, did not recognize the depth of their own predicament… The grand designs of the early technocratic class have mutated into an endless parade of technological solutions to social problems, each more grandiose than the last. Over the past decade, the Indian state has launched scheme after scheme promising to harness digital technology to overcome every conceivable social and political challenge… While early computing initiatives at institutions like TIFR [Tata Institute of Fundamental Research] understood hardware development as the necessary foundation for genuine industrial growth, and while the Department of Electronics pursued a more strategic vision of leveraging software exports to build a hardware manufacturing base, today’s orthodoxy celebrates India’s supposed comparative advantage in software services while accepting permanent technological subordination in the hardware sector.” Read more: Dwaipayan Banerjee, Rest of World

Bonus:

• The Sunday morning broadcast that changed Indian democracy

“Every Sunday morning in 1987, India came to a standstill. Streets emptied. Shops closed. Families bathed and adorned their television sets with flowers before gathering – often with neighbours – to watch Ramayan, a televised retelling of the ancient Hindu epic. An estimated 80 million viewers tuned in weekly, making it the most-watched programme in Indian television history… We study Ramayan’s impacts, finding that exposure to the show caused strengthened Hindu religious identification, short-term increases in communal violence, and persistent electoral gains for the Bharatiya Janata Party, even though the Congress government aired it mainly to boost advertising revenue rather than for ideological reasons. How can one determine the causal impact of Ramayan? Our key insight is that television signals do not travel uniformly: hills and valleys create natural barriers that weaken reception in some areas, while others receive strong signals. This variation, driven by terrain and the timing of transmitter rollout rather than systematic differences across places, allows us to estimate the causal effect of exposure to Ramayan by comparing changes over time in places that had a stronger TV signal in 1987 when the show aired to places that had weaker or no signal… We show that exposure to religious media can shift religious identification, with cascading consequences across multiple domains – from personal choices to intergroup conflict to electoral politics to institutional change.” Read more: Dean Yang, Alessandro Saia, Akhila Kovvuri, Resuf Ahmed and Paul Brimble, VoxDev

Watch/listen:

• Shivshankar Menon Says India’s Silence on Iran War, Khamenei Killing ‘Inexplicable’, ‘Diminishes Us’ | Shivshankar Menon in conversation with Karan Thapar | The Wire

• India’s oil imports from Russia fell to 44-month low in January 2026, Gulf countries saw rising share

“India continued its strategy of reducing Russian oil imports and instead sourcing more from the Gulf countries and the U.S. in January 2026 as well, the latest official data shows, with Russia’s share in India’s oil imports falling to less than 20% for the first time since May 2022. However, events over the last week could render this strategy costly for India. A potential trade deal with the U.S. — allegedly the main reason for India reducing cheap Russian oil imports — is in limbo following the U.S. Supreme Court’s February 20 decision striking down that country’s reciprocal tariffs… An analysis of the latest preliminary data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry shows that India imported $1.98 billion worth of crude oil from Russia in January 2026, the month before India and the U.S. issued a joint statement about an interim trade agreement between the two countries. This was also the lowest in 44 months… While the Indian government has maintained that it decides on its energy sourcing based on independent strategic and energy security considerations, the U.S. administration has repeatedly linked the lowering of tariffs on Indian imports and the trade deal with India’s cutting down of oil imports from Russia and increasing them from the U.S… Even as it lowered oil supplies from Russia, India either retained supply levels from the Gulf countries or has increased them. About 16.6% of India’s oil imports in January 2026 came from Iraq, about the same level as a year earlier. The UAE accounted for another 10.4% of India’s oil imports in January 2025.” Read more: T. C. A. Sharad Raghavan, The Hindu

• India reduces gas supply to industries after Qatar outage, sources say

“Indian companies on Tuesday reduced natural gas supplies to industries in anticipation of tighter supply from ​the Middle East after top producer Qatar halted production, four ‌industry sources with knowledge of the matter said… India, the world’s fourth-largest buyer of LNG, relies ​heavily on the Middle East for its imports. Top LNG importer Petronet LNG ​Ltd has informed GAIL (India), the top gas marketing company, and other companies about lower supplies, two of the sources said. The South Asian nation is the top LNG ​client for Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and the second-largest buyer of ​Qatari LNG. GAIL and Indian Oil Corp informed customers of the gas supply cut ‌late ⁠on Monday, one of the sources said. The cuts range from 10% to 30%, two of the sources said. The cuts have been set at minimum lifting quantities that would shield the suppliers from any penalties ​from the customers based ​on contractual ⁠terms, the sources said… To make up for the LNG shortfall, companies including IOC, GAIL, Petronet LNG are planning to issue spot tenders, two of the sources said, ⁠although spot ​prices, freight, and insurance costs have surged.” Read more: Nidhi Verma, Reuters

• In Nicobar, ecology loses out, but who receives a windfall?

“Two years after the grant of environment and forest clearance, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands Integrated Development Corporation Limited (ANIIDCO), the proponent of the Great Nicobar Island mega infrastructure project, recently released minutes of a series of meetings held to discuss implementation of environmental conditions under which the project was cleared. As reported by the Hindustan Times, the “environment management plan for wildlife, compensatory afforestation, tribal welfare and conservation and mitigation measures during construction and operation of the (...) project will cost around ₹9162.22 crore”. This is money to be spent over 30 years, the execution period for the mega-project. The problem, however, lies in the fact that those getting this money are the very institutions — WII, ZSI and the ANFD — that facilitated the wildlife and environment clearances in the first place… WII that has never worked on sea turtles in these islands was allowed to sign away one of the world’s most important turtle nesting sites that it knows nothing about. They stand to now get funding to the tune of ₹768 crores for 30 years. At ₹25 crore per year, this is already 50% of the ₹52.32 crore allocated for the institute in the latest Union budget.” Read more: Pankaj Sekhsaria, Hindustan Times

• India expected to install about 42.5 GW of new solar capacity in 2026

“JMK Research expects India to add around 42.5 GW of new solar capacity in calendar year (CY) 2026. This is projected to include 32.5 GW of utility-scale solar, 8.5 GW of rooftop solar, and 1.5 GW from the off-grid segment. According to the analyst, India installed about 37.8 GW of solar capacity in CY2025, comprising roughly 28.6 GW of new utility-scale solar, up 54.6 % increase from 2024, and 7.9 GW of rooftop solar, up 72 % year on year. Off-grid additions stood at 1.35 GW, slightly down from 1.48 GW in 2024… The top five players by cumulative installations and pipeline capacity across utility-scale solar, wind, and hybrid segments are Adani (40.4 GW), ReNew (22.2 GW), NTPC (19.6 GW), JSW Energy (16.1 GW), and Greenko (15.1 GW). Among these leading developers, Adani, ReNew, NTPC, Tata Power, and Juniper Green have collectively installed around 5.61 GW of hybrid capacity as of December 2025… In Q4 2025, India added approximately 6.2 GW of utility-scale solar capacity, a 23 % decline from the previous quarter. The rooftop segment recorded about 2.1 GW of new installations, down 22 % quarter on quarter.” Read more: Uma Gupta, PV Magazine

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Economy:

• Indian IT holds just 1% of global tech value pools: BCG study

“India’s technology sector contributes 7% to the national GDP ($300 billion) and commands 17% of global IT services, and yet captures only 1% of high-growth global value pools such as semiconductors, hyperscalers, AI-first firms, and deep tech, a new BCG study said. Nearly 85% of the $8.5-$10 trillion global tech market lies outside IT services, GCCs, and BPOs, in IP-led and capital-intensive segments growing at 10%-20% annual growth rate, raising questions about whether services-led growth alone can support India’s $1 trillion tech ambition… However, where disruption is visible is in deal pricing. Clients are demanding steep discounts of up to 50% due to AI-productivity gains, Gupta said. However, such demands are unrealistic. BCG’s own research on GenAI in software development life cycles found about 15% productivity uplift at scale, with 20-25% in specific use cases like test generation… Another challenge faced by vendors is the uncertainty over pricing agentic AI. “How do we price an agent? Nobody knows that in the industry,” he said, adding that investments in AI agents and tokens create new cost structures that must be monetised.” Read more: Himanshi Lohchab, Economic Times

• India’s Rupee Advances Most in Asia as RBI Supports Currency

“India’s rupee advanced the most in Asia on Thursday as the central bank stepped in to shore up the currency after it weakened to a record low in the previous session. The currency gained as much as 0.7% to 91.5112 per dollar after the Reserve Bank of India sold the greenback in both offshore and onshore markets, according to people familiar with the developments… “The RBI has intervened on a day when other cues are also positive — crude has stabilized, equities are slightly positive, and dollar index has also eased,” said Dilip Parmar, currency analyst at HDFC Securities Ltd. In this backdrop, the RBI’s move will lead to hefty gains for the rupee, deterring speculators, he said… Thursday’s intervention is likely aimed at preventing outsized losses in the currency, which is still Asia’s worst performer so far this year, said Dhiraj Nim, forex strategist, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group… Oil extended gains as traders assessed the widening fallout from the US and Israeli war against Iran, with Brent climbing past $83 a barrel. Crude has added 12% over the first three days of the week. India imports nearly 5 million barrels a day, making it the world’s third-largest oil consumer and the RBI has assumed crude prices at $70 a barrel for the October—March period in its baseline projections.” Read more: Bhaskar Dutta and Pratigya Vajpayee, Bloomberg

• India’s structural exposure to oil price shock is very high, warns Moody’s Ratings

“Costly energy imports in the wake of the West Asia conflict would weaken the rupee, raise inflation, worsen the current account balance and complicate monetary policy as well as fiscal management if they lead to expanded subsidies to help offset the economic shock, warned Moody’s Ratings. The rating agency said India’s structural exposure to oil price shock is very high. It noted that India stands out among the large Asian economies that rely on crude and LNG from West Asia, with a high share of West Asian crude among total oil imports, and pressure from the US to cut its energy imports from Russia… In the case of an adverse scenario, the deviation in the real GDP growth and inflation from the baseline scenario will be -0.8 to -1.2 percentage points (ppts) and +1.2 to 1.8 ppts, respectively… Moody’s Ratings warned that the West Asia conflict poses substantial risk to the global economy, especially if it causes a prolonged dislocation in global energy markets, with the Strait of Hormuz a critical choke point.” Read more: The Hindu Businessline

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Foreign Policy & Security:

• US Won’t Allow India to Become Rival Like China, Official Says

“The US won’t give India the same kind of economic advantages it gave China, which allowed that country to emerge as a major competitor, Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said on Thursday, signaling Washington’s cautiousness in negotiations over a trade deal. While the US wants to work with India to unlock its “limitless potential,” India should understand that “we are not going to make the same mistakes with India that we made with China 20 years ago,” Landau said at the Raisina Dialogue, India’s flagship conference on geopolitics and geoeconomics… India has avoided taking sides in the widening conflict, as it finalizes a trade deal under negotiation since US President Donald Trumptook office. Washington last month cut tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50% after several rounds of talks… “It is in our interest and we think it is also in India’s interest to be partners,” said Landau. “We have many many win-win situations with India”.” Read more: Swati Gupta, Bloomberg

• GoPro used to recce Pahalgam before terror attack ‘traced to Chinese distributor’. NIA to approach China

“The GoPro Hero 12 Black camera allegedly used to carry out the recce of Kashmir’s Baisaran Valley was traced to a China-based distributor and was activated more than a year before the deadly Pahalgam terror attack, ThePrint has learnt. The National Investigation Agency (NIA) is now set to issue a Letter Rogatory as information regarding the camera’s activation, initial use, and commercial trail lies within the jurisdiction of China… The facts came to light during the investigation as various material objects and electronic devices connected to the conspiracy and execution of the attack were examined… “The said camera was supplied to AE Group International Limited, a distributor based in the People’s Republic of China; and the camera was activated on 30.01.2024 at Dongguan, People’s Republic of China,” the NIA submitted before the special court the response from the manufacturer. However, the central counter-terrorism agency has so far been unable to trace the camera’s end-user records or its transportation from China to Jammu and Kashmir. To establish the linkage and trace the records of camera users, it sought an order from the special NIA court in Jammu to send a formal, judicial request to Chinese authorities.” Read more: Mayank Kumar, ThePrint

• Iranian Warship IRIS ‘Lavan’ Has Been In Kochi Since Wednesday, Sources Say

“On the same day the US and Israel commenced their attacks on Iran, Tehran asked India that its IRIS Lavan warship that was in Mumbai for a training exercise be allowed to dock in Kochi, with New Delhi granting approval the next day, Indian government sources revealed on Friday (March 6). Iran in its “urgent” request had cited “technical issues” with the Lavan, the sources said days after a US submarine torpedoed the IRIS Dena frigate off Sri Lanka’s southern coast killing 87 people on board, adding that its crew of 183 persons are currently in Kochi after the vessel docked there on Wednesday… India responded to the Dena‘s sinking a day later, with the Navy issuing a press release that did not mention the US submarine attack and saying it despatched a marine patrol aircraft hours after the sinking. A training vessel was rerouted to the search area on Wednesday evening, it added… The Lavan was accompanied by another Iranian warship, the IRIS Bushehr, in travelling to Mumbai. Sri Lankan President Anura Dissanayake said late on Thursday that local authorities had decided to take control of the Bushehr after discussions with Iranian officials and the ship’s captain after one of its engines failed… India’s response to the Dena‘s sinking and its decision to allow the Lavanto dock at Kochi comes amid its relatively muted reaction to the US-Israeli attack on Iran. Its first official acknowledgment of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination came only on Thursday when foreign secretary Vikram Misri signed his condolence book at the Iranian mission in New Delhi.” Read more: The Wire

• From Dubai to Qatar: Fear reaches the diaspora amid West Asia crisis

“In recent days, multiple countries across West Asia have reported attacks, interceptions, or heightened security alerts. The countries affected include the UEA, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iraq, Jordan, and Iran. Together, these countries account for 23.55 per cent of non-resident Indians and Persons of Indian Origin living abroad. The UAE alone hosts around 10 per cent of the global Indian diaspora, followed by Saudi Arabia with 6.95 per cent and Kuwait with 2.8 per cent, making the unfolding situation a matter of grave concern for millions of Indian families… “There was slight panic among people following the drone attacks on the airport on Saturday. We have been hearing warning alarms at regular intervals. However, the government has neutralised all of those attacks so far. Apart from the panic, work is continuing as usual, and offices are functioning with full attendance. However, schools remain closed,” said Rajesh Mathew, a leader of Pravasi Welfare Kuwait… Indian industrialists in West Asia expressed that there is no reason to panic at this point. LuLu Group, the region’s leading full-line retailed operating over 280 stores across the Gulf Cooperation Council and led by Indian businessman Yusuff Ali M A assured uninterrupted supply and price stability across all markets… Long-term residents said that the shock stems largely from the rarity of such incidents in the country, with some saying they had never witnessed such events in decades of living in the UAE.” Read more: Georgie Koithara and Shine Jacob, Business Standard

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People & Politics:

• The great Indian local governance challenge

“India’s founding fathers famously disagreed on many policy issues. But most of them agreed on the need to build a strong centralised State. Fearful of fissiparous tendencies in a diverse country, they voted for a Constitution that empowered the Union government at the expense of the states, and virtually ignored local governments. India’s embrace of economic planning after Independence further centralised policymaking in the country… The reality of local governance has belied that constitutional promise. The third tier of governance still remains the weakest tier. Most state governments have been reluctant to devolve powers to local governments, especially in urban areas. Across Indian cities, unelected officials appointed by state governments enjoy greater powers than elected mayors. Local ward committees are largely defunct… A recent report on SFCs published by the urban watchdog, Janaagraha, shows that several states tend to set up SFCs long after the previous award period ends. Unlike in the case of the Union Finance Commission, most SFCs are appointed for a very short tenure (typically less than 12 months), lack dedicated technical staff, and remain ill-equipped to judge the evolving needs of city and village governments.” Read more: Pramit Bhattacharya, Hindustan Times

• As polls knock, why is Bengal’s SIR in a state of chaos with no end in sight?

“On Saturday, the Election Commission of India published the electoral roll for West Bengal three weeks after its original deadline to do so had lapsed. This list excluded over 61 lakh voters. But the special intensive revision is still not over in the state. The fate of 60 lakh voters hangs in the balance as they have been placed in a new “under adjudication” category… It is unclear how many of the 60 lakh voters, who the Election Commission has labelled as “under adjudication”, will be allowed to vote in the upcoming polls, if at all. At a news conference on Saturday, Manoj Kumar Agarwal, the chief electoral officer of West Bengal, simply said their “cases are not in our jurisdiction now”. Ordinarily, the state would have been gearing up for Assembly elections by now. But the Election Commission has not even announced the timeline for it so far… Activist-politician Yogendra Yadav agreed that concerns about lakhs of voters being declared doubtful were “understandable”. For this, he squarely blamed the Election Commission which, in his view, had carried out the SIR “in league with” the BJP.” Read more: Anant Gupta, Scroll

• Ladki Bahin drain forcing forest dept to fell teak: Ganesh Naik

“The state government’s flagship Ladki Bahin scheme, which has been draining the state’s coffers, may push the forest department to fell mature teak trees to generate funds to repay a loan it plans to take. This was stated by state forest minister Ganesh Naik in the legislative council on Friday, outlining options to raise money for his department. “Although schemes like Ladki Bahin are affecting the finances of various government departments, they will not be shut down. That’s why we have decided to monetise the department’s teakwood property worth ₹12,000 crore and use the funds to raise a ₹6,000-crore loan for the department’s expenditure,” Naik told legislators… BJP MLCs Parinay Phuke and Praveen Darekar, and Congress MLC Satej Patil expressed concern over attacks on humans living in villages in tiger reserves and in nearby villages. Members from various political parties demanded that steps be taken to prevent the man-animal conflict, which has intensified… In his reply, Naik said the state has financial constraints due to the burden of schemes like Ladki Bahin and hence the forest department has decided to monetise its own property. He said the Forest Development of Corporation of Maharashtra Limited (FDCM) has created teakwood tree properties across the state worth ₹12,000 crore. These trees are old enough to fell and the wood thus sold would help repay ₹6,000 crore the department plans to raise from financial institutions, Naik explained.” Read more: Saurabha Kulshreshtha, Hindustan Times

• Mumbai: Iron rod falls from Sewri-Worli bridge project, 23-year-old seriously injured

“Not even a fortnight since a man lost his life after a part of Metro Line 4’s slab collapsed on him in Mulund, a similar mishap has taken place at another infra project — the under-construction Sewri-Worli elevated connector. An iron rod fell from the site, this time injuring a 23-year-old man who was passing under the bridge near KEM Hospital on Friday night. Ganesh Vishnu Budhale was passing by KEM Hospital in Parel, when he was struck on the head by an iron rod that fell from the ongoing construction at the Sewri-Worli bridge overhead… Sunday mid-day contacted Budhale over the phone, who said, “I am in too much pain.” He remains under treatment at Gleneagles hospital in Parel. The FIR names the accused as Piraji Kamble, engineer in-charge at the construction site overseen by J Kumar Infraproject Pvt Ltd… Additionally, the authority said, “Upon receiving information, MMRDA’s executive engineer immediately visited the site. MMRDA will bear the entire cost of treatment”..” Read more: Madhulika Ram Kavattur, Mid-day

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Tech:

• India Signs the Pax Silica—A Counter to Pax Sinica?

“On the last day of the India AI Impact Summit—a high-powered international mega-event focused on A.I., now in its fourth iteration—India signed Pax Silica, a U.S.-led declaration seemingly focused on semiconductors. While India’s accession to the same was not entirely unforeseen, becoming a signatory nation this quickly was not on the cards either. In the original Pax Silica Declaration signed in December 2025, India was not a signatory or even a participatory country.. Accordingly, a few questions arise for consideration: What changed in the last two months, and why did India sign this declaration now, at the AI Impact Summit? What can India expect from the Pax Silica, and how can it make the most of it?.. First, the scope of Pax Silica was initially seen as convoluted. Indian popular media burnished the semiconductor-centric credentials of the declaration… The U.S. State Department, however, never strayed from the original message, that Pax Silica was always about AI, more than it is about semiconductors… The Pax Silica declaration comes at a moment when multipolarity is accelerating. Technological competition between China and the United States is intensifying and supply chains are increasingly being weaponized. The declaration is welcome at a time like this.” Read more: Konark Bhandari, Carnegie India

• The road to semiconductor self-reliance starts with simple chips

“Semiconductor chips are used by millions of Indian citizens every day: from cell phones and laptops all the way to data centre servers (which power email, social media and instant communication apps, among many other things), to the GPU servers needed for AI training and inference are powered by semiconductor chips… One thing is quite obvious: there is very little in the supply chain steps from before that India is currently capable of doing indigenously. The design of these chips, both for computation and storage, is mostly done outside India. Whatever design is being done within Indian borders is being done by multinational corporations, who hold the intellectual property for those designs… But it is not all doom and gloom. Given that we started late as a country in this area, in order to catch up, we should start doing the things that are not as capital-intensive, have smaller setup timelines, would create a large number of jobs and provide incentives to the ecosystem to grow. OSATs (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test), or facilities which are responsible for assembling together discrete components (e.g. all the components of the smartphone mentioned above to create a phone) into working products, are a step in the right direction.” Read more: Manu Awasthi, The Week

Bonus:

• Poisoned Wells: Examining the scale of DNS censorship in India — Explore 43,083 blocked domains and their censorship status across six ISPs. Filter by ISP, category, TLD, or search specific domains. Includes Tranco popularity rankings | Created by Karan Saini

Watch/listen:

• India's Choices In West Asia I Modi's Ties With Israel I Srinath Raghavan in conversation with Smita Sharma

• Why Adivasis displaced by one of India’s first thermal power plants depend on stolen electricity

“The village of Hansda’s childhood does not exist today because in the late 1950s, the Bihar government displaced its residents to set up the Chandrapura Thermal Power Station, now situated in Jharkhand’s Bokaro district. The power station is spread over 1,800 acres of land in Chandrapura, of which around 1,200 acres was acquired from locals… Today, Hansda lives in an informal settlement that bears the same name as his original home, and where many other displaced families were also resettled. But unlike the idyllic village surrounded with lush green fields that he remembers, present day Jhinjirguttu is a small settlement of makeshift houses covered in fly ash… Hansda noted that Adivasis who were displaced were not asked for informed consent, which would have entailed allowing them to first consider various options and weigh their risks… In many instances, he noted, the money was transferred from the company to the state government treasury, but not further to the displaced people… By 2017, the first set of thermal power units that were set up in the 1960s were retired. In February 2025, the corporation announced that it would set up a new 1600-MW supercritical thermal power plant in collaboration with Coal India in Chandrapura.” Read more: Nolina Minj, Scroll

• Indian States’ Electricity Transition (SET) 2026

“India’s electricity demand continues to rise rapidly, driven by sustained economic growth, urbanisation and the electrification of transport, industry and emerging digital infrastructure… The transition, however, is unfolding differently across states, shaped by variations in resource endowments, development pathways, and institutional capacities. While some states are already leading in renewable energy deployment and grid readiness, others are building momentum, presenting significant opportunities for accelerated progress through targeted, state-specific policy interventions… Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh and Kerala have showcased consistent leadership in the decarbonisation dimension of the SET 2026 and SET 2024 analysis, emerging as strong performers. Karnataka continued to lead, supported by relatively lower power sector emissions intensity and a renewable energy share of around 37% in its power procurement mix… Delhi and Haryana continued to perform strongly in terms of their preparedness and overall well-functioning power ecosystems. The states’ progress was supported by robust distributed solar adoption (76% and 73%, respectively, of total renewable installed capacity), alongside reliable power supply and relatively sound DISCOM performance…. Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan did well under market enablers, reflecting regulatory initiatives that accelerated renewable energy adoption. Their performance was supported by updated renewable energy policies, adoption of green tariffs and green open access mechanisms, and progress on solar-hour-aligned ToD tariffs.” Read more: Vibhuti Garg, Saloni Sachdeva Michael, Tanya Rana & Ruchita Shah, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

• The EU-India FTA: A stepping stone for sustainable industrial transformation?

“On 27 January 2026, after nearly two decades of negotiations, India and the European Union (EU) finally concluded a free trade agreement (FTA)… Beyond the FTA, the two blocs signed a Joint India-European Comprehensive Strategic Agenda setting out a broad framework for cooperation, including in areas such as sustainability, innovation, and defence. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), a carbon levy that took effect on 1 January 2026, was a key sticking point during the negotiations. While the brokered outcome reflects compromises from both sides, it does not include CBAM exemptions or flexibilities for Indian firms. However, the parties have agreed to cooperate on CBAM implementation and, beyond CBAM, have identified win-win opportunities to strengthen clean value chain integration… Strengthened EU-India bilateral cooperation should go beyond compliance with CBAM and other EU regulations and serve as a platform to address supply-side obstacles to decarbonising India’s rapidly growing, coal-dependent, heavy industries. Based on 2022 trade data, the World Bank estimates that India exported 7% of its total steel production to the EU, 4% of its aluminium, and 0.12% of its cement. Therefore, from a climate lens, the bigger challenge is establishing enabling conditions to decarbonise India’s hard-to-abate industries beyond the export component.” Read more: Colette van der Ven and Sanvid Tuljapurkar, CarbonCopy

• Suzlon to launch DevCo; signals shift beyond wind to solar & BESS

“Long identified as a wind turbine manufacturer, Suzlon Energy Ltd is looking to move beyond its core business by launching DevCo — a standalone project development vertical — that will anchor its ambitions across wind, solar and battery energy storage systems (BESS)… The DevCo unit will focus on identifying high-potential wind and hybrid sites 3-5 years in advance using proprietary resource data, securing land parcels, obtaining regulatory approvals and arranging grid connectivity through State and Central transmission utilities… The move signals a transition from order-led growth to pipeline-led planning. By incubating projects well before construction begins, Suzlon can engage customers early — typically after about 25 per cent of land aggregation is complete — allowing clients to enter at a pre-construction stage, lower their interest during construction (IDC) burden and accelerate financial closure… Strategically, DevCo enables Suzlon to participate more deeply in the value chain as India’s renewable energy market shifts toward hybrid and firm, dispatchable renewable energy (FDRE) solutions that combine wind, solar and storage.” Read more: Avinash Nair, The Hindu Businessline

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Economy:

• With new data sources and process upgrades, new GDP data set to capture the economy more accurately

“Over the last week, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has made public the reports of various sub-committees tasked with looking at specific ways to upgrade the national accounts data. These upgrades include better methodologies, and the inclusion of new data sets, such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST) data… The Sub-Committee on Methodological Improvements proposed several sector-wise improvements that have been implemented. For instance, for the non-financial private corporate sector, the currently-used 2011-12 series of data deals with companies that operate across sectors by allocating that entire company’s GVA to the sector in which the bulk of its activity is. The new series, the activity-wise revenue share for a company is being used to calculate the value added in each business activity. This will help capture all the activity in each sector… For households, the new series will use the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) and Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) on an annual basis instead of extrapolating data as was done in the 2011-12 series. This will mean that the household sector, which has a significant contribution to the economy, is directly estimated each year… The new series of national accounts data will also include new data sources and will use existing sources better. For example, GST data was so far being used in the quarterly accounts of GDP and GVA, and only for some sectors in the annual data.” Read more: T. C. A. Sharad Raghavan, The Hindu

• India May Buy Dollars for Reserves Should Rupee Gain, Citi Says

“India’s central bank is likely to start buying dollars to bolster its foreign-exchange reserves once the rupee strengthens to around 88—89 per dollar, according to Citigroup Inc.’s local markets head. “In the short-term, we see the rupee in a band of 90 to 91.25 per dollar,” Aditya Bagree, head of markets for India and the subcontinent, said in an interview in Mumbai. The currency closed 0.1% higher at 90.88 on Monday… The central bank sold dollars heavily in 2025 — a net $49.5 billion as per Nomura estimates — to support the rupee as it slid to record lows. Still, reserves have climbed to a record $725.7 billion, helped by a weaker greenback, a surge in gold and the RBI’s foreign-exchange swaps… Greater stability could channel more foreign flows into the nation’s bonds, which offer relatively attractive yields compared with regional peers, he said. The rupee was Asia’s worst performer in 2025, falling nearly 5% amid high US tariffs and record equity outflows… Recent tax changes and revised mandates for large investors like pension funds have curbed demand for long-tenor debt, widening the gap between short- and long-term yields, he said.” Read more: Bhaskar Dutta and Subhadip Sircar, Bloomberg

• NSE is said to invite banks to pitch for nearly Rs 23,000 crore IPO

“National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. has issued a request for proposals to investment banks, inviting them to pitch for roles on its long-awaited initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter. The exchange plans to select advisers by mid-March, according to some of the people, who asked not to be identified as the information is private. The company didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking comment… The move signals renewed momentum for what could rank among India’s largest-ever share sales. The IPO had been stalled for several years amid regulatory and legal challenges. The exchange operates the world’s busiest derivatives market by number of contracts traded. The planned share sale will be entirely an offer for sale, with existing shareholders expected to divest about 4% to 4.5% of the company’s equity, Bloomberg News has reported. Based on prices in the unlisted market, the IPO could raise approximately $2.5 billion ( Rs 22,700 crore).” Read more: Economic Times

• The Political Economy Behind India’s Burgeoning Middle Class

“As India marks its emergence as the world’s fourth-largest economy, the country’s ascent to upper middle-income status is likely to be influenced by a slew of interacting forces: political governance, institutional independence, and the rights of economic agents… The middle class is defined as a household earning between INR 5 lakh and INR 30 lakh annually and is projected to reach 715 million people by 2030 — an increase from 14 percent of the population in 2004-05 to 46 percent in 2030… Equally, a country the size of India can ill afford to neglect the economic wellbeing of its citizens at the bottom of the pyramid. The government bears a moral obligation to enforce the social contract through the sustained provision of welfare measures aimed at improving their living standards… Finally, the role of India’s private sector in bolstering the economy cannot be overstated. As India remains relatively well insulated from ongoing geopolitical gyrations, the timing could not be more propitious for the private sector to unleash its animal spirits and adopt a risk-on approach. There is only so much the public sector can achieve in stimulating investment and consumption without incurring the costs associated with crowding out.” Read more: Ullas Rao, Observer Research Foundation

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Foreign Policy & Security:

• How Trump is pushing India to hedge its geopolitical bets

“But now, even as it seeks to thrash out the detail of a trade deal with President Donald Trump’s administration, New Delhi is seeking to hedge its bets. The mercurial president has frayed nerves in Narendra Modi’s government through his trade brinkmanship and his warm relationship with its regional rival, Pakistan, and its military leader Asim Munir. India’s response has been to rapidly deepen its ties with “middle powers” — countries including Japan, Brazil and Canada — as well as the EU, with which the world’s most populous nation concluded a long-sought free trade accord last month… India has been weathering an ugly and public showdown with the White House for much of Trump’s second term, its exporters buckling under the 50 per cent tariff imposed at the end of August by Washington to force India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil… “Resilience” is a buzzword in New Delhi right now, as India looks to deepen ties with a range of so-called middle powers including Japan, Canada, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates and the EU in what analysts say is a direct response to the volatility of the US administration. In the process, the Modi government’s long-standing boast of being “friends with everybody” is being put to the test.” Read more: John Reed and Andres Schipani, Financial Times

• Ahead of Carney trip, Ottawa says India is no longer linked to violent crimes in Canada

“Marking a stark change from its concerns of recent years, the federal government now believes India is no longer linked to violent crimes in Canada, a senior official said Wednesday… “We have a very robust diplomatic engagement, including between national security advisers, and I think we can say we’re confident that that activity is not continuing,” one of the senior officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Wednesday. It’s a new tone that India — which continues to reject allegations its government is linked to violent crime in Canada — will welcome. But it clashes with the concerns from Sikh activists like Moninder Singh, a religious leader in British Columbia… On Wednesday, officials went further, stating previous concerns about active foreign interference and repression in Canada by agents linked to the Indian government no longer apply… The prime minister’s office, however, said in a subsequent statement that the government will continue to combat transnational repression, organized crime and criminal acts on Canadian soil. The statement did not retract the official’s remarks but noted respect for the law is key to Canada’s efforts with India.” Read more: Alex Ballingall, Toronto Star

• US slaps 126% tariff on solar firms, cites Adani not joining subsidy probe

“The US Department of Commerce has imposed a 126 per cent tariff on Indian solar products after two Adani Group companies, Mundra Solar Energy and Mundra Solar PV, withdrew from the investigation proceedings, a preliminary anti-subsidy investigation report reviewed by The Indian Express shows. The Adani Group companies were ‘mandatory respondents’ in the proceedings, and their non-cooperation triggered ‘Adverse Facts Available’ penalty, the toughest methodology used by the US Department of Commerce. The order dated February 20 has resulted in steep tariffs being slapped on the sector… The US Department of Commerce concluded that “Mundra Solar Energy and Mundra Solar PV shipped solar cells in ‘massive’ quantities during a relatively short period” and the companies benefited from the Advance Authorisation Program/Advance License Program, Duty Free Import Authorisation Scheme Program, Duty Drawback Program, and Export Promotion of Capital Goods Scheme… The document showed that the US Commerce Department initiated the countervailing duty (CVD) investigation on August 6 last year after it received a petition from Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade, a coalition of US solar manufacturers.” Read more: Pratyush Deep & Ravi Dutta Mishra, Indian Express

• Power and Purpose: Indian Foreign Policy 2025

“The contours of Indian foreign policy vis-à-vis the great powers have remained largely stable since the early 21st century: engage with the U.S. on common interests vis-à-vis China, and reassure Russia for legacy (mainly defence), bargaining, and geostrategic reasons. This framework was intended to hold for the foreseeable future, with strong calibration unnecessary until clear warning signs indicated its rupture. However, 2025 has greatly destabilized this framework and its assumptions… The U.S.-India strategic convergence also experienced significant dilution amid U.S. flexibility toward China and the inadequacy of India-U.S. strategic cooperation. Present ties are now bottlenecked by a growing set of divergences – from trade to leadership ties (equality vs subordination), sanctions on Russian oil, and India’s commercial choices regarding the same… In turn, Europe, Russia, and China’s disposition towards India also exhibited considerable continuity. With Brussels, relations have improved significantly, as seen in the India-EU summit in Jan 2026. With Russia, assurances have been reinforced despite decisions to reduce oil purchases. Meanwhile, India has continued its efforts to enhance ‘trust-building’ with China (initiated since 2023) and has worked toward further normalization of ties, based on the Depsang-Demchok disengagement agreement of Oct 2024.” Read more: Sidharth Raimedhi (Editor), Council for Strategic and Defense Research

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People & Politics:

• SC Allows Deployment of Judges From Odisha, Jharkhand to Clear Voter List Backlog in Bengal SIR

“In an unprecedented intervention, the Supreme Court on Tuesday (February 24) authorised the deployment of judicial officers from Odisha and Jharkhand to oversee the special intensive revision (SIR) in West Bengal. A bench comprising Chief Justice of India Surya Kant, Justice Joymalya Bagchi and Justice Vipul M. Pancholi expanded the judicial pool to include civil judges (senior and junior division) with at least three years of experience, alongside district and additional district judges. This decision follows the “trust deficit” between the state government and the Election Commission (EC) observed by the highest court… The court’s order addresses a critical resource shortage, noting that with only 250 local judicial officers, it would take 80 days to clear the backlog, well beyond the February 28 deadline… The court also clarified that Aadhaar cards, madhyamik (Class X) admit cards and pass certificates must be accepted if submitted by the February 14 cut-off… Hailing the order as a “decisive victory for Bengal”, the Trinamool Congress has termed it as a stinging rebuke to the EC.” Read more: Joydeep Sarkar, The Wire

• Shivraj bats for direct transfer of fertiliser subsidy to farmers, says it is possible

“Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has lent his weight to the long-debated proposal of transferring fertilizer subsidy directly to farmers’ bank accounts. Stating that it “can be done, it is possible,” he instructed officials to begin designing a functional mechanism for the transition… Highlighting that urea bag is available at ₹266/bag (of 45 kg) and that of Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) at ₹1,350/bag (of 50 kg), he asked the gathering of farmers, staff of ICAR and others, to guess the market rates of these fertilisers and went on to add that the Centre had paid over ₹1.70 lakh crore of subsidy to farmers to ensure they receive fertilisers at cheap rates… The minister pointed out that complaints were received from many quarters that farmers did not receive fertilisers despite so much of supplies and huge susbidy. At some places, the subsidised urea, meant for the farmers, also got diverted… According to an official study, it was found that 65 per cent of farmers in the country had purchased 5-7 bags of urea in the whole year during 2024-25. But, 163 districts out of 330 where fertiliser is used, were found to have consuming 22 lakh bags of urea or 1 lakh tonnes (lt) to 1.8 lt, each.” Read more: Prabhudutta Mishra, The Hindu BusinessLine

• ‘Accountability will be fixed, action taken’: Education Minister’s first response on NCERT textbook row

“Union education minister Dharmendra Pradhan on Thursday expressed regret over the NCERT textbook row, saying that “accountability will be fixed” for the incident. The remarks comes after the Supreme Court took strong objection to controversial portions in a Class 8 NCERT book, which included a chapter on “corruption in judiciary.” After the SC ordered a blanket ban on the textbook, Pradhan said that action would be taken against those involved in drafting the chapter on judicial corruption, PTI news agency reported… A day after taking suo motu cognisance of the portions in the social science textbook, the SC on Thursday said it expects the Centre to fix accountability. “We expect the government to issue takedown orders. The State will have to take that responsibility,” the court said… “They have fired the gunshot and the judiciary is bleeding today. The judges say their morale is down and people are talking about it,” the court noted. It emphasised that this would not remain confined to the students, and said that this would also be reaching the teachers and the parents. “It is a deep-rooted conspiracy to malign the judiciary,” the SC said.” Read more: Arya Mishra, Hindustan Times

• How budget fast fashion is taking small-town India by storm

“At a gleaming three-storey outlet of Reliance Trends in the town of Sangli in western India, Alka browses through a collection of Indian ethnic-wear kurtas in an array of vibrant colours. A geriatric care worker in her late 50s, she is looking for a design in a particular shade of baby pink with a dull gold paisley motif… Like most Indians, she has only ever hunted for white label bargains in street-side bazaars all her life. However, budget brands like Trends - run by Isha Ambani, heiress to the Reliance Industries retail empire founded by Asia’s richest man, Mukesh Ambani - and Tata’s Zudio are now offering goods at the same price point as the bazaar, but with a vastly improved shopping experience. In these outlets, most merchandise costs between $4 (£2.90) and $15… This explosion in the number of value-conscious yet aspirational consumers, especially in smaller towns, is driving extraordinary bottomline growth in the country’s organised fast-fashion industry, led by brands such as Max, Vishaal Mega Mart, Trends and Zudio… Consider these figures: in 2018, Zudio had merely seven stores across the country and clocked $12m in revenue. Westside was a much bigger brand, with 125 stores bringing in around $220m. Today, the tables have completely turned. Zudio’s seven stores have expanded to 765, with revenues crossing $1bn by the middle of 2025 - making it the only Indian clothing brand to hold that distinction.” Read more: Nikhil Inamdar, BBC

Tech:

• Money Talks as India Searches for Its Place in Global A.I.

“The event promised to be a global coming-out party for India’s artificial intelligence aspirations. The India A.I. Impact Summit has been a whirl of more than 300 exhibitors and 500 sessions, sprawled across 120 acres of New Delhi this week. The organizers expected 250,000 participants and visitors… This summit is the fourth in an annual series on A.I. that began at Bletchley Park in Britain in 2023, before moving to Seoul and then to Paris… India’s version is draped in announcements about business deals and billions in investment, as well as entrepreneurs touting clever fixes to real-world problems… Ashwini Vaishnaw, the cabinet minister in charge of India’s A.I. policy, said $200 billion worth of A.I. investment was expected in India, much of it flowing from abroad. The American A.I. company Anthropic, represented at the summit by its chief executive, Dario Amodei, announced a deal with Infosys, a giant among India’s first-generation tech firms. The two companies said they would integrate the services they offered to clients, such as regulatory compliance reporting and precision engineering… The American A.I. company Anthropic, represented at the summit by its chief executive, Dario Amodei, announced a deal with Infosys, a giant among India’s first-generation tech firms. The two companies said they would integrate the services they offered to clients, such as regulatory compliance reporting and precision engineering.” Read more: Alex Travelli and Hari Kumar, New York Times

• To Trade Coders for Legos, India Needs a Better Deal

“For a quarter-century, software services have been India’s calling card. No longer. The next 25 years belong to tokens — the Lego bricks of the artificial-intelligence era. As AI agents require quintillions of them to supplant human effort, India is pitching its tent there. But is that wise? New Delhi has offered a 20-year tax holiday to any foreign company setting up inference hubs — token factories that convert electrons into intelligence — to meet AI agents’ 24/7 workload. Given that these algorithms will be empowered to act autonomously, writing their own programs, where will this leave the country’s 6 million coders?… By promising cheap electrons, India has written itself into this energy-intensive vision of the AI future. Alphabet Inc., Microsoft Corp., and Amazon.com Inc. — the three largest Western cloud services providers — have all announced big plans for factories that will churn out tokens… But consider the problem from the point of view of fresh graduates. Ever since India burst onto the global software services scene with the Y2K scare, programming has been a vaunted career option… The software industry has strong linkages with domestic consumption and property demand in cities.” Read more: Andy Mukherjee, Bloomberg

• Why Claude Cowork is a math problem Indian IT can’t solve

“On February 4, the $300 billion Indian IT sector faced a moment of reckoning. The country’s benchmark IT stocks index slumped nearly 6%, reacting to Anthropic’s release of its Claude Cowork agentic plugin. The new plugins are designed to automate precisely the high-volume, repetitive knowledge work that has been the bread and butter of Indian IT: contract reviews, regulatory compliance tracking, and sales forecasting, among other things… This was the first concrete sign of AI’s long-feared threat to the industry, which makes for 10% of India’s GDP and directly employs 5 million people. Indian IT firms have been preparing for this eventuality. Still, experts who have observed the industry closely believe many of these companies and their services will soon become obsolete. AI won’t kill the entire sector, they said, but only the companies that innovate and adapt to AI quickly will thrive in the future… Typically, IT services companies rely on billable hours — charging clients for the amount of time spent on projects. With a smaller workforce and more AI, “the timelines of engagements will massively shrink further, impacting billing,” Yugal Joshi, partner at global research firm Everest Group, told Rest of World.” Read more: Ananya Bhattacharya, Rest of World

• Russia’s Crude Shipments Hold Steady While Flows to India Slump

“Russia’s crude shipments are holding steady even as pressures intensify on the country’s critical oil trade. China is once again the biggest buyer of Moscow’s barrels as its purchases rise while flows to India plunge to the lowest in more than three years… Deliveries of Russian crude into Indian ports continued to fall last month, dropping to about 1.12 million barrels a day from 1.2 million in December, to leave the January import figure at the lowest since November 2022… The hurdles facing exporters could soon get even higher, if India follows through on an apparent deal with the US, potentially imperiling the Kremlin’s war chest… The drop in flows to India has been offset by an increase in the amount being delivered to China. Tracking data show 1.65 million barrels a day of crude offloaded at Chinese ports in January. That’s the most since March 2024 and the second-highest monthly total since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The tankers seen idling near Oman in recent weeks have largely dispersed. Most have now headed to Indian ports after delays of as long as six weeks, while two have headed through the Strait of Malacca to China.” Read more: Julian Lee, Bloomberg

• India curtails 2.3 TWh of solar between May and December 2025

“India had to curtail 2.3 TWh of solar generation between late May and December 2025, including 0.9 TWh in October alone, according to a new report from energy think tank Ember. The report states that a combination of forecast error, low daytime demand due to unusually mild temperatures, and rising solar generation led to periods of daytime oversupply in 2025… “Weaker-than-forecast daytime demand coincided with continued solar expansion, resulting in periods where cumulative supply was higher than demand,” the report explains. “This was because enough coal capacity had to remain online to meet the evening demand, with the mismatch leading to grid security concerns.”… Ember’s report adds that transmission constraints are the largest cause of solar curtailment nationally, and represent the largest risk to new projects as they are not guaranteed to be compensated financially. The think tank estimates that affected solar generators received an estimated INR 5,750 million – INR 6,900 million ($63 million – $76 million) in compensation through emergency Tertiary Reserve Ancillary Service (TRAS) mechanisms.” Read more: Uma Gupta, PV Magazine

• New EU carbon tariff pushes India toward green steel

“Since emerging as the world’s No. 2 producer of steel eight years ago, India has ramped up its exports to Europe. By some estimates, upwards of 60% of the country’s steel exports now head to the European Union… The EU’s world-first carbon tariff — known as the carbon border adjustment mechanism — took effect this month, forcing companies in the bloc to pay levies on certain imports based on how much planet-warming pollution was emitted during their manufacturing. That means metal from Indian steelmakers — which rely heavily on coal — will come in at a much higher price in the EU… Coal dominates the steelmaking process in much of the world, and especially in India. The traditional method for producing the metal relies on a coal-fired blast furnace to refine iron ore into iron, which is then forged into steel in a basic oxygen furnace. That two-step process accounts for 43% of India’s steel output, according to a June report from Johns Hopkins University’s Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab… Some steelmakers in India have begun to build out the infrastructure for direct reduced iron, a cleaner method of making iron than relying on coal-burning blast furnaces. But in contrast to American or European DRI facilities, which typically use natural gas or hydrogen, Indian DRI plants often use coal as the input.” Read more: Alexander C. Kaufman, Canary Media

• Is Energy Becoming a Buyer’s Market? India Says Yes

“Among the world’s top energy consumers, no country is more price sensitive than India. Few are as vocal in airing their misery when costs surge. Currently, though, everyone in New Delhi feels rather relaxed. Ask government officials and industry executives, many are convinced oil, gas and coal have become a buyer’s market — perhaps for good. The sentiment echoes the reality of the market. Oil prices, for example, have fallen to about $65 a barrel, half the level they reached in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. And that’s in today’s money; in real terms, adjusted for inflation, oil is as cheap as it was in the mid-1980s. Coal and gas prices are also down significantly… “The good news is that there’s more, and more, and more energy coming into the global market,” Hardeep Singh Puri, India’s top energy official, told me last week… Looking ahead, India is betting that the growth in Chinese demand for fossil fuels will slow dramatically in the next few years, and certainly from 2030, creating room for India to increase its own consumption of oil, gas and coal without straining the global commodity market.” Read more: Javier Blas, Bloomberg

• The copper crunch: How falling TCRCs threaten India’s refining viability

“The global collapse in Copper Treatment and Refining Charges (TCRCs) has sent shockwaves through India’s copper smelting sector, exposing critical vulnerabilities which threaten the economic viability of domestic refineries at a pivotal moment for the nation’s industrial ambitions. TCRCs—the fees charged to smelters for processing copper concentrate into refined metal have plummeted– dropping from $80-$90 per tonne in early 2024 to near-zero and negative territory by mid-2025 in some cases globally, which has forced Indian operators to pay for the privilege of processing ore… Mining interruptions in key copper-producing countries such as Peru, Panama, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, combined with Indonesia’s export ban on copper concentrates, have severely constrained ore availability… The impact on Indian copper smelters, heavily dependent on imported concentrates, has been intense. Companies face tightening margins as TCRCs shrink, undermining profitability and threatening their operational sustainability. The margin shrinkage also reflects India’s 90 per cent reliance on imported copper concentrate… The clean energy industry in India faces strategic risks as a result of this copper shortage. The nation’s aspirations for a clean energy transition depend on domestic refining capacity because copper is essential to renewable energy infrastructure, including high-voltage grids, electric vehicles, and solar systems.” Read more: Vikas Singh, Manufacturing Today

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Economy:

• Free Trade on Paper, Protection in Practice: How India’s Policy Interventions Hollow Out Trade Liberalisation

“Free trade agreements (FTA) are often justified as stepping stones toward broader trade liberalisation. By committing governments to phased tariff elimination, FTAs are presumed to weaken protectionist interests and pave the way for deeper integration through lower Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) barriers. A long literature, however, questions this optimism… This paper argues that the stepping-stone versus stumbling-block distinction understates a more fundamental problem. Once tariffs are phased out under an FTA, governments may preserve protection through instrument substitution — the strategic deployment of trade remedies, regulatory standards, and administrative controls that reproduce the effects of tariffs without formally violating treaty commitments… After nearly a decade of disengagement, India has re-entered the FTA landscape, signing or concluding agreements with the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Oman, and the European Union… Experience under earlier agreements reveals a recurring pattern in which tariff concessions are announced, implemented, and then quietly neutralised. India’s experience under the ASEAN-India Trade in Good Agreement (AITIGA) is illustrative. Although the agreement entered into force in January 2010 with commitments to eliminate tariffs on a wide range of intermediate inputs, India initiated anti-dumping investigations on 54 ASEAN-linked products between 2010 and 2024, imposing 80 product-country duties.” Read more: Abhishek Anand and Naveen Joseph Thomas, O P Jindal Global University

• Union Budget Insights

“The government continues on its fiscal consolidation path under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) framework, targeting a reduction in fiscal deficit while maintaining a focus on capital expenditure as a driver of medium-term growth. However, the current budget also reflects emerging pressures: revenue growth has slowed, tax buoyancy has weakened relative to nominal GDP, and revised estimates for FY 25-26 indicate lower than expected receipts and muted expenditure compared to initial projections… The last two years saw social sector expenditures reaching their lowest levels in FY 24-25, with their share in total expenditure and GDP remaining below even pre-pandemic levels. In fact, Centrally Sponsored Schemes (CSSs), once the Union government’s primary vehicle for welfare delivery, have seen their share in overall transfers and GDP decline over time, reflecting both fiscal consolidation pressures and shifts in how resources are channelled to states. At the same time, the recommendations of the Sixteenth Finance Commission (XVI FC) reshape the fiscal federal landscape for the coming five-year period… The Commission has also significantly increased the quantum of grants recommended for rural local governments (84 per cent) while those for urban local governments have increased nearly three-fold. This reflects a growing recognition of the current transition towards urbanisation and the role of local governments in delivering public services and infrastructure.” Read more: Sharad Pandey and Avani Kapur, Foundation for Responsive Governance

• India hands Apple a win by letting foreign firms fund equipment without tax risk

“India's government on Sunday handed a major win to Apple y allowing foreign companies to provide machines to their contract manufacturers in certain areas for five years without any tax risk. Apple has been growing in India in recent years as it diversifies beyond China. Counterpoint Research says iPhone’s share of the Indian market has doubled to 8% since 2022… Apple had been lobbying India’s government to modify its income tax laws to ensure the company is not taxed for ownership of the high-end iPhone machinery it provides to its contract manufacturers. In India, unlike China, Apple was concerned that if it paid for machines for its contract manufacturers, Indian law could consider that a so-called "business connection" and impose taxes on its iPhone sales profits… India on Sunday said that “to promote manufacturing of electronic goods for a contract manufacturer”, it is making certain law changes to ensure that mere ownership of machines by a foreign company does not lead to taxes on it… The move could prompt Apple and other companies to invest rapidly in the electronics manufacturing space by taking over initial expenses for pricey machines, reducing the initial cost burden on contract manufacturers they partner with.” Read more: Nikunj Ohri and Aditya Kalra, Reuters

• Business Growth and Innovation Can Boost India’s Productivity

“India’s productivity performance, measured by output per additional worker, has been uneven. Services have delivered strong productivity gains, benefiting from advances in adoption of digital technology and their integration into global value chains. Manufacturing, however, has seen only small productivity growth, while agriculture—still employing over 40 percent of the workforce—remains far less productive than other sectors… India’s unusually large share of very small firms is one reason manufacturing productivity has fallen behind. Nearly three quarters of factories employ fewer than five paid workers—almost double the US share… These challenges reduce India’s aggregate productivity. Many of these enterprises remain small for decades due to complex compliance requirements, rigid labor regulations, and product market rules that discourage growth… Another factor underlying India’s subdued manufacturing productivity is that business dynamism remains low. The frequency of new business creation and when firms close or exit a market is far lower than in economies such as Korea, Chile, or the United States… Further, a sizable share are zombie firms, which don’t generate enough earnings to cover their borrowing costs yet are continuing to absorb capital and labor.” Read more: Harald Finger and Nujin Suphaphiphat, IMF

• From the Budget, a message: India’s economy is still in search of a plan

“As the Finance Minister wrapped up her Budget speech, all I could think was: While there are schemes galore, where is the growth, where are the jobs? Two budgets ago, the FM announced Employment Linked Incentives — a Rs 2 lakh crore package promising 4.1 crore jobs. Cabinet approval took a year; the schemes became operational only in August 2025. We are still waiting for evidence of a single new job… The Production Linked Incentive scheme tells a similar story. Of Rs 1.97 lakh crore committed across 14 sectors, barely 12 per cent has been disbursed. Apple’s contract manufacturers absorbed three-quarters of mobile incentives; domestic players missed targets… Meanwhile, a CAG report revealed that under the Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana — Rs 10,000 crore spent on skilling one crore youth — 94.5 per cent of beneficiary bank accounts were invalid, blank, or dummy. Ninety lakh ghost accounts… The government thinks industrial policy works like providing gas cylinders — campaign mode, where you put up resources, implement once and announce it on television. But serious industrial policy is maintenance mode — persistent, iterative, demanding deep expertise over years. Centralisation in the PMO means policy is driven by generalist bureaucrats with neither the training nor the incentives to get it right.” Read more: Rohit Lamba, Indian Express

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Foreign Policy & Security:

• India Made Long Push With Trump Behind Scenes to Clinch US Deal

“In early September, shortly after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a chummy meeting with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in China, he dispatched his national security adviser to Washington to help smooth over fraying ties… Doval told Rubio that India wouldn’t be bullied by US President Donald Trump and his top aides, the people said, and would be willing to wait out his term, having faced other hostile US administrations in the past. But New Delhi wanted Trump and his aides to dial down their public criticism of India so they could get relations back on track, Doval said in the meeting… It wasn’t long after Doval’s meeting, which was previously unreported, that the first signs of an ease in tensions emerged. On Sept. 16, Trump called Modi on his birthday and praised him for doing a “tremendous job.” By the end of the year, the two leaders had spoken four more times on the phone as they inched toward a deal to bring down the tariffs… On Monday, Trump announced he’d reached a trade agreement with Modi that would reduce tariffs on India’s goods to 18%, lower than most of its peers in Asia. A punitive 25% duty that the US leader had slapped on India for buying Russian oil was also scrapped.” Read more: Sudhi Ranjan Sen, Dan Strumpf, and Shruti Srivastava, Bloomberg

• AMCA higher jet programme: Tata, L&T, Bharat Forge in fighter jet race; HAL out

“Three private sector companies have been shortlisted to develop and manufacture next generation fighter jets under the Advanced Multirole Combat Aircraft (AMCA) programme, with a final winner to be decided within the next three months. Sources said that after a scrutiny of technical bids by seven Indian entities, three companies — Tata Advanced Systems Limited, Larsen & Toubro and Bharat Forge — have been shortlisted, with the remaining companies like state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) out of the race… As per plans, the winner of the competition will work with the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) to produce five prototypes of AMCA. The ministry has allocated an indicative budget of INR15,000 crore for the prototype stage… This is arguably India’s biggest ever military research and development program. The new, fifth generation fighter jet is slated to become India’s mainstay aerial platform from the mid 2030s. After the development, 120 fighter jets are expected to be ordered in the first batch, with deliveries expected to start by 2035.” Read more: Manu Pubby, Economic Times

• Addressing Multidomain Nuclear Escalation Risk

“In June 2025 Ukraine launched an unprecedented attack deep within the Russian Federation. The covert operation ‘Spider Web’ involved the use of 117 uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) to target airfields across the country… Overall, the ongoing war—alongside the May 2025 India–Pakistan conflict and Israel’s June 2025 military operations in Iran—exhibits the rapidly evolving battlefield that is marked by convergence of technologies and the regular presence of multidomain operations that can cross from the historically predominant air, land and sea domains to the increasingly prominent cyber, outer space and information domains… Meanwhile, in South Asia, following the terrorist attacks near Pahalgam in Indian-controlled Kashmir in April 2025, AI-enabled disinformation could easily have spiralled into an extended conflict, with direct nuclear confrontation between India and Pakistan a possibility. In the aftermath of the attacks undertaken by India against alleged terrorist bases in Pakistan, there was a ‘carnival of sensationalism’, with artificially generated content driving false narratives of successes against strategic targets and captured territories broadcast on mainstream media outlets on both sides. The chief of India’s Defence Staff observed that the Indian military devoted substantial resources to countering these as part of the ‘non-contact and multi-domain’ conflict that ‘exemplifies the future of war’..” Read more: Wilfred Wan, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

• Canada Nears $3 Billion Uranium Deal With India, May Be Inked In March

“Canada and India are tantalizingly close to a 10-year multibillion dollar uranium supply deal that will likely be signed at a heads of state meeting in March, according to sources from both sides at the recently concluded India Energy Week, held in Goa, India, last week… Given its burgeoning economy, India is on a quest for secure uranium supplies as it expands its nuclear power footprint tenfold to 100 gigawatts by 2047, and both sides are looking to partner on that front… At the heart of the supply deal would be Canada’s Cameco Corporation, the world’s largest publicly traded uranium company, based in Saskatchewan province… While confirming talks on a deal involving uranium supplies, the Canadian delegation to India Energy Week also declined to provide specifics potentially involving Cameco, owing to commercial sensitivities. However, speaking at a fireside chat at the event on Wednesday, Canada’s minister of energy and natural resources Tim Hodgson, confirmed recent reports in the Indian media that prime minister Mark Carney would be meeting his counterpart Narendra Modi in Delhi in March to firm up various trade deals, including one on uranium supplies.” Read more: Gaurav Sharma, Forbes

• India Is Resigned to a New Status Quo With China

“It’s still mid-winter in the high Himalayas, along the disputed border between India and China. But in New Delhi and Beijing spring has come. Relations, which had been frozen since 20 Indian soldiers were killed in clashes in 2020, have begun to thaw. Bilateral diplomatic visits have resumed and the two militaries have begun meeting again. Most importantly, however, India has begun to re-evaluate China’s role as an economic partner… Capital will begin to cross the border again — and Chinese companies might even be allowed to bid for government contracts, no small thing in a country where the state sector drives much investment activity. This isn’t because China has retreated on the border issue. Far from it; if anything, it is India that has resigned itself to a new status quo, one in which it has lost several strategic advantages… Indian companies’ immediate need for China, however, is not as a destination for their products but as a supply-chain partner. Clothing manufacturers, for example, complain that they can’t produce the cloth they want because they can’t get the necessary equipment and chemicals… This is a fragile spring, however. A renewed flare-up on the border would bring winter back. And there are limits, as well, on how deep integration can possibly go while the Indian private sector sees China only as a source of inputs and not a destination for their goods.” Read more: Mihir Sharma, Bloomberg

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People & Politics:

• India’s largest far-right Hindu organization ends congressional lobbying campaign in U.S.

“India’s largest Hindu far-right organization, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), is no longer working with lobbyists in the U.S. after launching its first known lobbying campaign targeting members of Congress last January. Squire Patton Boggs, the firm that lobbied on behalf of the RSS, terminated the campaign weeks after a Prism investigation detailed the RSS’s lobbying activities, according to public disclosures. The firm also filed several amendments to its lobbying registration and quarterly reports that retroactively changed details about its client… he amended documents, which were filed on Dec. 23 and 29, replace the RSS with an individual named Vivek Sharma. Sharma, who is based in Acton, Massachusetts, is the executive chair of Cohance Lifesciences, a drug manufacturer with major operations in India and the U.S… On Nov. 12, Prism reported that Squire Patton Boggs received $330,000 in the first three quarters of 2025 to lobby officials in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives on behalf of the RSS. Public records indicate this was the first time the RSS hired lobbyists in the U.S. A review of congressional disclosure documents by Prism found that the RSS had not been identified as a foreign entity, despite the organization being based in India.” Read more: Biplob Kumar Das and Meghnad Bose, PRISM

• Why UGC guidelines cannot be caste-neutral, lawyer who fought for them explains

“Many upper-caste protestors opposing the University Grants Commission’s new guidelines against discrimination have demanded that the rules be made caste-neutral. But lawyer Disha Wadekar said there is no point to the regulations if they are made caste-neutral. “Then they will have to be gender neutral, they will have to be disabilities neutral, so everyone can file complaints against everyone,” Wadekar told Scroll in an interview on Friday… Wadekar pointed out that the UGC’s Redressal of Grievances of Students Regulations, 2023, which has also been mentioned in the 2026 guidelines, allow any student to file a complaint of victimisation. “So what is this uproar that ‘we don’t have a redressal’?” Regarding claims that the new rules could be misused, Wadekar said that misuse is a symptom of systemic failures in our criminal justice system. “This whole ‘misuse’ narrative about the atrocities act was also based on the fact that there are so many acquittals,” she said, pointing that similarly, in rape cases, only 25% cases reach conviction. “Does that mean that 75% of rape cases are false and are a misuse of the rape law?”.” Read more: Nolina Minj, Scroll

• 91-year-old Mahadalit woman cremated on road after access to cremation ground blocked in Bihar

“In a shocking incident, a 91-year-old Mahadalit woman was cremated in the middle of a road in Bihar’s Vaishali district after her family was prevented from reaching the cremation ground due to encroachment on the access path. Sources said the relatives were forced to perform the last rites on the road after some people had encroached on the land leading to the cremation ground… The incident occurred at Sondho Andhari Gachhi Chowk under Goroul police station limits in Vaishali district late on Thursday. The deceased was identified as Jhapi Devi, a resident of Sondho Vasudev village… It was alleged that local shopkeepers had been encroaching on the route for a long time. When the family attempted to move forward with the body, the shopkeepers stopped them… Taking serious note of the incident, Vaishali district magistrate Varsha Singh constituted a committee comprising the sub-divisional officer of Mahua, the deputy superintendent of police, and the block development officer of Goraul to inquire into the matter. It was stated that strict action would be taken against those found guilty after the investigation. Meanwhile, on the directive of the district magistrate, the payment of salaries of the block development officer, circle officer and station house officer of Goroul has been withheld.” Read more: Ramashankar, The New Indian Express

• Why Budget 2026 was never just about numbers, but also political calculations

“Budgets are never just about numbers. They’re political documents that reflect not only fiscal priorities but also political calculations. Budget 2026, presented against the backdrop of elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry, is no exception. While GoI has carefully avoided conspicuous election-oriented largesse, distribution and nature of its promises reveal a subtler strategy: using infrastructure, connectivity, and symbolic development to talk to voters in electorally-sensitive states… What ties these cases together is not generosity but selectivity. GoI has largely avoided direct fiscal transfers or welfare expansions that would strengthen states’ capacity to deliver services in the short term. Instead, it has favoured centrally branded capes - railways, corridors, industrial clusters - implemented through central ministries and PSUs… Decision to retain the 41% tax devolution ratio reinforces this pattern. While technically consistent with the Finance Commission’s recommendations, it does little to ease states’ fiscal pressures, especially amid rising welfare demands and constrained borrowing.” Read more: Gilles Verniers, Economic Times

Tech:

• What’s the potential cost of India’s US$100 billion bet on AI data centres?

“OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, announced plans for a 1-gigawatt (GW) AI data centre in September last year, followed by major AI-related investment announcements from technology giants Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta in the last quarter of 2025. Domestic conglomerates such as Reliance, Adani and the Tata Group are also joining the rush for data centres, which are centralised facilities that house servers and digital infrastructure, powering everything from AI tools such as ChatGPT and Claude to cloud services, video streaming and e-commerce platforms… What is more striking, however, is the timing - coming as other parts of the world reassess data centre expansion amid mounting resource and environmental constraints… As of October 2025, India had 153 data centres - up about 10 per cent over the past three years - with a combined capacity of 1.7GW. That capacity is expected to grow fivefold to 8GW by 2030, according to a Jefferies report… However, analysts caution that serious questions remain about the environmental and humanitarian costs of this growth. India already faces acute water stress and constraints on energy supply. Water use by data centres in the country is expected to more than double, from 150 billion litres in 2025 to 358 billion litres by 2030, according to insights from Mordor Intelligence.” Read more: Collin Furtado, Channel News Asia

• Alphabet Plots Big Expansion in India as US Restricts Visas

“Alphabet Inc. is plotting to dramatically expand its presence in India, with the possibility of taking millions of square feet in new office space in Bangalore, India’s tech hub. Google’s parent company has leased one office tower and purchased options on two others in Alembic City, a development in the Whitefield tech corridor, totaling 2.4 million square feet, according to people familiar with the deal… If it does take all of the space, the complex could accommodate as many as 20,000 additional staff, which could more than double the company’s footprint in India, said the people, asking not to be identified because the plans aren’t public. Alphabet currently employs around 14,000 in the country, out of a global workforce of roughly 190,000… US President Donald Trump’s visa restrictions have made it harder to bring foreign talent to America, prompting some companies to recruit more staff overseas. India has become an increasingly important place for US companies to hire, particularly in the race to dominate artificial intelligence… For US tech giants, India offers a strategic workaround to Washington’s tightening immigration regime. The Trump administration has moved to sharply hike the fees for H-1B work visas — potentially to $100,000 per application — making it harder for companies to bring Indian engineers to the US.” Read more: Saritha Rai and Christopher Palmeri, Bloomberg

• Economic Survey highlights a new vision for tech sovereignty in India

“The Economic Survey’s observations on compute and AI portend potentially significant developments in the upcoming Budget. First, it flags concerns raised by the Financial Times about off-balance-sheet leverage in global AI investments, alongside skepticism expressed by IBM’s CEO regarding the financial viability of large-scale data center expansion. Second, it highlights that the demands data centers place on water, energy, and finance may be difficult to reconcile with India’s economic and existential realities, where steady access to these basic amenities is still not universal. Taken together, these signals suggest that Budget 2026 is unlikely to offer subsidies or major outlays for data centers. This presents a unique opportunity for India to reimagine its conception of technological sovereignty… A reimagined conception of technological sovereignty for India must begin with trust. Businesses value certainty, even more so in a global environment marked by policy volatility and erratic decision-making. Singapore offers a useful illustration… India could orient itself in a similar direction. Doing so, however, requires resisting the temptation to dilute or reverse institutional and legal commitments once made.” Read more: Meghna Bal, Money Control

• Facebook India net jumps 28% in FY25

“Facebook India Online Services reported a 28.1% increase in net profit to Rs 647 crore for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, compared with Rs 505 crore in the previous year, according to the company’s financial data accessed by Tofler. Revenue from operations rose 25.0% to Rs 3,793 crore from Rs 3,035 crore a year earlier. Total income increased 25.2% to Rs 3,834 crore from Rs 3,064 crore. Total expenses for the year climbed 22.6% to Rs 2,881 crore, compared with Rs 2,350 crore in the previous fiscal. Employee benefit expenses jumped 36.3% to Rs 649 crore from Rs 476 crore… Gross advertising revenue increased by about 29%, rising from Rs 22,731 crore to Rs 29,392 crore. It paid royalty charges of Rs 23,247 crore, a nearly 30% increase compared with Rs 17,887 crore.” Read more: Economic Times

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• India and the true cost of coal | Financial Times Film

Bonus:

• Kabaddi, kabaddi, kabaddi—The story of Punjab’s bloody kabaddi

“Over 2,000 men covered in blankets squat, stand, and crowd around a turf, watching a circle-style kabaddi match in Punjab’s Moga district. Brand new tractors, which the winners will take home, are parked adjacent to the ground. Fourteen bare-chested players in Adidas shorts raid through the biting cold whispering “kabaddi-kabaddi”. But it is not the scorers who have the biggest responsibility of ensuring the game goes uninterrupted. The players are being closely watched over by policemen… The 16 December killing of kabaddi player and promoter Kanwar Digvijay Singh alias Rana Balachauria is the latest in a spate of murders dotting Punjab’s kabaddi-verse. It was the fourth murder linked to the kabaddi world in less than a year. Balachauria’s killers came to him with a selfie request and shot him point blank in police presence… Moga is the backyard of Davinder Bambiha—the slain gangster who first earned praise with his game and then instilled fear with his criminal acts. Police have traced the recent killings to the Bambiha gang… What is unfolding on Punjab’s kabaddi turfs is part of a larger shift in the state’s crime landscape. As the gang networks face increased pressure from police, investigators said, illicit money is being routed through hawala and betting apps. Extortion money too is entering the sport.” Read more: Samridhi Tewari, ThePrint

• India’s electrotech fast-track: where China built on coal, India is building on sun

“India is harnessing some of the cheapest solar in the world to power its industrial rise – bypassing an expensive, insecure, fossil-burning interlude. Where China and the West took the long road to the energy future, India is taking a shortcut. India’s shortcut has consequences, both at home and abroad. It offers a faster, cheaper route to growing electricity. It means greater energy sovereignty at an earlier stage of development… Over the last two decades, the cost of core electrotech like EVs, solar panels and batteries have plummeted. To put that in perspective, in 2004, when China crossed 1,500 kWh of electricity use per capita, coal generation was about ten times cheaper than nascent solar photovoltaics (PV). What followed was predictable: over the next decade, coal made up nearly 70% of the growth in China’s electricity generation. In contrast, as India crosses 1,500 kWh of electricity use per capita, now, solar-plus-storage costs around half as much as new coal plants… The energy revolution runs along two tracks. First, renewables coupled with battery storage are taking over electricity supply. Second, electricity is taking over energy demand; everything that can economically electrify will go electric, from transport to industry and buildings. On both fronts, India is achieving greater success at earlier stages of development… In the race to curb oil imports, India is already far ahead of where China was at the same stage of development. Road transport oil demand per capita is significantly lower, thanks first to smaller, lighter vehicles and now to the rise of electric vehicles (EVs).” Read more: Kingsmill Bond and Sumant Sinha, Ember

• Assessing India’s incentive scheme to enhance the battery manufacturing ecosystem

“India’s ambitious electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage targets have accelerated lithium battery demand, underscoring the strategic importance of lithium-ion cells, almost all of which India currently imports, primarily from China. To reduce this dependence, the Ministry of Heavy Industries (MHI) launched the Advanced Chemistry Cell Production Linked Incentive (ACC PLI) scheme in October 2021 to catalyse domestic cell manufacturing… The 50-gigawatt hours (GWh) ACC PLI tenders attracted strong interest from domestic players, with auctions heavily oversubscribed. Ola Electric, Reliance New Energy, Hyundai Global, and Rajesh Exports emerged as the selected beneficiaries. However, the initial 50GWh allocation remains incomplete after Hyundai Global Motor pulled out of its 20GWh allocation from the first tender. This prompted the MHI to re-tender 10GWh in the second auction, while reserving the remaining 10GWh for a future tender… As of October 2025, progress under the ACC PLI scheme has been limited. Only 2.8% (1.4GWh) of the targeted 50GWh capacity has been commissioned within the stipulated timeline, entirely by Ola Electric. However, this 1.4GWh, too, represents only a partial commissioning of Ola Electric’s awarded 20GWh capacity and is yet to meet the DVA requirements needed to qualify for incentive claims… Beneficiaries have also encountered major supply chain and implementation bottlenecks that have significantly delayed facility installation. India lacks a mature cell manufacturing ecosystem, including critical mineral refining and cell component production, which leaves the industry almost entirely dependent on imports from China.” Read more: JMK Research

• Govt unveils draft National Electricity Policy 2026 with focus on tariffs, discom health

“The government on Wednesday unveiled the draft National Electricity Policy, 2026, proposing strict norms for power tariff determination, a framework for sweeping structural reforms to improve the financial health of discoms, financing requirements, and suggestions on long-term generation and transmission planning, nearly two decades after it was first issued… Emphasising the role of state regulators for bringing tariff discipline, the policy has recommended that tariffs fully reflect costs without creating regulatory assets. On the longstanding issue of the delay in annual tariff revision, the ministry has suggested the tariff be linked to an appropriate index to enable automatic annual revisions if state regulators do not pass the order… Despite numerous government bailouts, discoms remain financially strained, creating the need for a more transparent, cost-reflective tariff structure, the ministry said… For renewable energy, the draft policy calls for enforcing consumption obligations an enable mechanisms such as virtual PPAs… State regulators have been advised to ensure parity between renewables and conventional power sources by 2030 to maintain grid stability.” Read more: Economic Times

• India Is Electrifying Faster Than China Using Cheap Green Tech

“China’s rapid electrification has been hailed as a miracle. By some measures, India is even further ahead. The nation is electrifying faster and using fewer fossil fuels per capita than China did when it was at similar levels of economic development, according to a new report from the think tank Ember… Even as it boosts green electricity, India continues to rely heavily on fossil fuels. The government is considering new plans that would double India’s coal power capacity by 2047, and the country’s oil consumption growth was set to outpace China’s last year. But the South Asian economy’s coal and oil consumption per capita is a fraction of what China’s was at similar income levels. In absolute terms, India’s fossil fuel consumption is growing at slower rates than China’s today… In India, 5% of all new car sales in 2024 were electric. The country’s per-capita consumption of oil for road transport is 60% lower than when China hit that milestone. As a result, Bond says that India’s peak road-oil consumption per person will likely never reach Chinese levels… With the US and Europe continuing to add exclusions for Chinese-linked electrotech, countries like India will have an incentive to invest in their own manufacturing capacity.” Read more: Akshat Rathi, Bloomberg

• Inside the world’s largest renewable energy park – proof the green transition isn’t dead

“The ground is impossibly flat, white with salt, and largely uninhabited – a no man’s land where not even a cellphone signal can reach… Then, without warning, the horizon transforms. Rows of hulking electricity towers stretch into the distance, convoys of trucks carry turbine blades longer than plane wings, and a crop of solar panels rises from the marshy ground. This is Khavda, where India is building the world’s largest renewable energy project. Spanning 726 sq km – about seven times larger than the city of Paris – the Khavda Renewable Energy Park is expected to generate 30 gigawatts of power by combining solar and wind on the same site in western India… Most of the Khavda project is being developed by Adani Green Energy and represents a huge outlay for the wider Adani Group, which is also India’s largest importer of coal and operates some of the more controversial coal mining operations around the world… The constraint, Konda says, is not the pace of renewable construction, but how electricity is delivered once it is built, through a grid “built around thermal plants” which must now accommodate power that is variable by nature. At Khavda, that constraint is being addressed through engineering choices, beginning with combining solar and wind on a single site.” Read more: Stuti Mishra, Independent

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Economy:

• The ascent of India’s economy

“The goal set by Narendra Modi, the prime minister, of being a developed economy by 2047, the centennial of independence, has seemed far off. The world’s most populous country has remained peripheral to the global economy. But it is now showing remarkable promise. All the more so, given the headwinds it faces. In August Donald Trump, America’s president, singled India out for a tariff of 50%, combining a 25% “reciprocal” levy with a further 25% as punishment for buying heavily discounted Russian crude oil. Private-sector investment is sluggish. Foreign investors have been selling out of India’s highly valued stockmarket… Yet a combination of three things—luck, macroeconomic policy and structural reform—is reason for optimism, in both the short and long term. In the year to the third quarter, gdp grew by 8.2%, much faster than expected… A programme of fiscal consolidation has cut the budget deficit from 9.2% of gdp in fiscal 2021 (when it was bloated by pandemic spending) towards a target of 4.4% for fiscal 2026. Excluding interest payments, the deficit will be only around 0.9% of gdp… Even so, at the budget the government may reveal it has hit its 4.5% target. It will switch to a more forgiving goal, based on the ratio of debt to gdp. It aims to reduce this to 50% by 2031, from around 56% today. The Reserve Bank of India (rbi), too, has shifted its stance. Sanjay Malhotra, the governor since December 2024, has been readier than his predecessor to let the rupee depreciate.” Read more: The Economist

• What will it take to unlock export-led growth for India?

“Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget on Sunday. The budget is being presented in the backdrop of headwinds from US’s 50% tariff on Indian exports and promised tailwinds from the Indo-EU Free Trade Agreement. These developments raise a larger question about the Indian economy: the importance of exports, both overall and product-specific, for India’s economic growth… A comparison of compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of GDP, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and export of goods and services show that GDP growth was the highest in the period between 2000-01 to 2010-11 if one were to compare long-term growth… Export growth could not retain its momentum in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and overall growth and investment have been subdued too despite the push in government capex in the last few years. The short point is, unless exports rediscover their mojo, private investment or overall growth will not rise sustainably… The long-term growth numbers shown above do not have more recent export numbers. Quarterly numbers on goods exports show that merchandise exports have recovered after what can be termed as a lost decade between the 2008 crisis and the pandemic.” Read more: Roshan Kishore, Hindustan Times

• India seeks to boost manufacturing, hit $1.3 trln in exports through deregulation, sources say

“India will seek to triple the nation’s exports by 2035 by boosting manufacturing through structural changes rather than with hefty spending, according to two government officials. In Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third such attempt, the South Asian nation is prioritising manufacturing in 15 sectors, including high-end semiconductors, metals and the labour-intensive leather industry, aiming to lift India’s growth and boost annual goods exports to $1.3 trillion, they said… “In past years, several government initiatives to boost manufacturing growth have led to modest, incremental progress at best. What is needed is a bold, focused and cohesive strategy to drive transformative change,” according to a government official involved in drafting the policy. The government will spend about 100 billion rupees ($1 billion) to build infrastructure for about 30 manufacturing hubs across the targeted sectors while providing grants of $218 million for advanced areas such as chips and energy storage, said the officials, who asked not to be named because they were not authorised to speak to media… The new structure, called the National Manufacturing Mission, was announced in the budget last year but details were not disclosed. Details could be announced in the budget on February 1, but that will be decided closer to the date, the officials said… It will oversee the building of manufacturing hubs for the 15 sectors, and work with state governments to assure steady and cheap electricity supplies for such units, the sources said.” Read more: Nikunj Ohri and Sarita Chaganti Singh, Reuters

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Foreign Policy & Security:

• Deep Learning From Operation Sindoor: Five Takeaways From a Four-Day War

“Tensions between India and Pakistan — two countries that President Donald Trump claimed had been fighting for 1,500 years — escalated rapidly over a few days in May 2025. On May 7–10, the two countries fought an 88-hour war after India accused Pakistan of orchestrating a gruesome terrorist attack in April that killed 26 civilians… In the aftermath of the conflict, analysts noted some basic takeaways. India was willing to cross new lines, take on more risk, and — following lessons from Ukraine and the Middle East — conduct air and missile strikes on targets deep inside its adversary’s territory. New Delhi also seemed to underestimate Islamabad’s capabilities and resolve, which reportedly resulted in some loss of assets even while India asserted it too downed several Pakistani assets… As has been argued in these pages, India’s brief but consequential war with Pakistan — known as Operation Sindoor — may turn out to be a crucible for longer-term Indian strategic and operational thinking. In the weeks and months since the war, five distinct lessons have emerged. First, New Delhi believes it can fight a conventional war below the nuclear threshold. Second, it has developed a preference for “non-contact” warfare. Third, the Indian military has identified — and is beginning to remedy — gaps in its capabilities. Fourth, New Delhi has reassessed the nature of the China-Pakistan threat. Finally, India reaffirmed its strategic ties with Russia.” Read more: Sameer Lalwani, Shailender Arya, and David Brostoff, War on the Rocks

• 5 questions India should ask before deciding on Trump’s Board of Peace

“Peace initiatives usually arrive gift-wrapped in lofty language. Trump’s Board of Peace (BoP) for Gaza has arrived with a bill – a $1bn price tag for permanence, surprising global leaders and seasoned diplomats. A far distance from UN Security Council Resolution 2803 of Nov 2025, where members had authorised a BoP to oversee Gaza’s postwar transition. The resolution had imposed clear limits - end date of Dec 31, 2026, unless renewed, and requested six-monthly reporting to UNSC… But what Trump announced is a permanent fixture, the BoP charter emerging as the core issue… It reads less like a Gaza mandate, more like a roving instrument: portable across theatres, unbounded in time, and heavily dependent on its chair, Trump. The optics are corrosive. Especially the “pay-to-stay” provision that ties permanence beyond a single term to a $1bn contribution. This risks turning a peace mechanism of burden-sharing into an entry fee. It begins to resemble a private club rather than a public international body… India has direct stakes in West Asian stability, from energy and diaspora welfare to shipping routes and investment flows. A credible path to reconstruction is in India’s interest. But precedents travel, and a peace model built on invitation-only membership, pay-to-stay permanence, and personalised authority is not in India’s long-term interest.” Read more: Syed Akbaruddin, Times of India

• NDS confirms the Trumpian playbook

“In the wake of the National Security Strategy (NSS) document issued by the US White House on December 25, 2025, came the National Defense Strategy (NDS) document released by the US Department of War on January 23, 2026. The NDS elaborates a roadmap to implement the NSS, though it has some new points of emphasis, some notable elaborations of key objectives and several glaring omissions which reflect altered priorities or impulsive, personality-driven initiatives… The NDS reaffirms the NSS priorities to homeland security and the overarching importance of hemispheric security, with the US exercising hegemonic control over its western hemisphere, ranging from the Arctic in the north (including Greenland) to the southern tip of Latin America. Curiously, Antarctica is not mentioned, though its strategic importance is self-evident. One wonders why. The next priority reflects the NSS in focussing on the Indo-Pacific. However, there is a more detailed description of the posture towards China but no reference to other key partners and allies such as Japan, Australia and India and the role of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)… Taken together, these articulations in the NDS can hardly be reassuring to Taiwan and US allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific. To the extent that a shared concern over the expansion of Chinese power in the Indo-Pacific was a significant component in the perceived strategic convergence between India and the US over the past 25 years, the emerging and more positive equation between the US and China will necessitate significant readjustments in our foreign policy posture.” Read more: Shyam Saran, The Tribune

• Beijing’s view of China–India relations

“While there is much discourse on the China–India relationship in New Delhi, such debates are rarely heard in Beijing. Hence, a visit to Beijing last month to discuss China’s role in South Asia was revealing… Beijing tends to see China–India relations through the prism of its more consequential relationship with the US. One interlocutor said the “changing logic of the US–India relationship” (a reference to the recent deterioration in relations between New Delhi and Washington) presented an “opportunity” to improve China–India relations. New Delhi does not see its relations with Beijing and Washington in such zero-sum terms. Interestingly, Washington embraces the idea of an India–China–US triangle, and the Pentagon’s most recent annual report on China refers to Beijing’s efforts to “capitalize on decreased tension” with New Delhi to “prevent the deepening of U.S.-India ties”… Most surprising was that my Chinese counterparts felt differences between the countries had deeper philosophical roots… India now faces a superpower that is both its leading economic partner and its most significant security threat. Navigating this challenge will require a far more comprehensive, whole-of-government approach than employed so far.” Read more: Chietigj Bajpaee, The Interpreter

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People & Politics:

• Blocked By Modi Govt for 14 Months, US SEC Wants Federal Court to Serve Summons on Adani Via Email

“After India challenged its authority to issue summonses, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has moved a federal court to bypass diplomatic channels and allow service on Gautam Adani and Sagar Adani via their US counsel and email. “The SEC does not expect service to be completed through the Hague Convention,” the agency declared in a motion filed Wednesday (January 21) before the US District Court for the Eastern District of New York, effectively abandoning the treaty-based route it has pursued since February 2025. The move marks a shift in the agency’s 14-month effort to formally notify the Indian billionaires of charges stemming from a $750 million bond offering that raised approximately $175 million from US investors. It also signals that nearly a year of back-and-forth with India’s Ministry of Law and Justice has reached a dead end… On December 14, 2025, the SEC received letters from the Indian Ministry of Law and Justice, dated November 4, citing a new and unexpected objection. These letters were also attached as exhibits to the motion… This was the second time India’s Ministry of Law and Justice had refused to serve the documents. The first rejection came in April 2025, citing missing seals and signatures that the SEC said were not required under the Hague Convention.” Read more: Devirupa Mitra, The Wire

• The US Is Losing Top Tech Talent to India in the Wake of Trump’s H-1B Chaos

“The Trump administration has pushed a sweeping policy agenda intended to hinder immigration. This has included a move in September to increase the fees on H-1B visa applications to $100,000 apiece, a staggering tenfold hike, along with other changes that have made the program less desirable to employers. Foreign-born residents are facing increasing hostility from Washington, regardless of their legal status. For many, the long-term viability of a career in Silicon Valley seems less certain than ever… Days after President Donald Trump’s announcement about the H-1B program, Bahl pledged support for students and professionals facing visa uncertainty. Through his venture fund, Titan Capital, he offered financial backing, mentorship and a bridge to India’s thriving tech ecosystem. His inbox was immediately flooded with more than 60 startup proposals from US-based founders…India is much more prepared to take advantage of an influx in talent than it was when Bahl returned home. Its infrastructure is more robust and capital more abundant; tech and AI-fueled startups are making striking public-market debuts, and entrepreneurs are bolder in ambition and global in their outlook… To bypass the US immigration system, some global corporations that once relied on visas to hire Indian engineers in the US are hiring them in India instead.” Read more: Saritha Rai, Bloomberg

• The odd thing about Modi’s mojo

“Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, was humbled in 2024. His party lost its national majority and had to start ruling in coalition. Policymaking looked listless for most of the next 12 months… Yet adversity, and the need to satisfy his coalition partners, seem to have made Mr Modi more pragmatic. Though he still indulges in divisive rhetoric, he has taken fewer actions to goad or bully India’s Muslims since his electoral setback. Instead, he has concentrated on economic reforms, which should help the country maintain its zippy growth rate… Mr Modi seems to recognise that keeping growth high will require more work. In the past few months his government has unveiled bankruptcy reforms, which should shorten drawn-out disputes, and simplifications to India’s bewildering national value-added tax, under which a bag of popcorn could attract one of three different rates… Yet as America grows increasingly protectionist and erratic, India’s reformist turn deserves praise. Mr Modi could have responded to his setback at the ballot box, or to Mr Trump’s tariffs, in a much less constructive manner. Indians seem to have recognised that building a whizzier economy is the best way to gain global clout.” Read more: The Economist

• Noida is like many modern Indian cities. It has a broken system

“Grief, rage and despair are the usual responses to a tragedy. Personal loss often gives way to collective outrage against systemic lapses, and this emotion often turns into despair and cynicism. The establishment response, too, is formulaic… Now, a young man has drowned in a pool of water in a city touted as a modern urban settlement. There was no reason for the water to have accumulated at the site of the tragedy. On a foggy night, his car went out of control and fell into the pool because a railing was broken. There was no reason for him to drown in the swamp except that a crude, ill-prepared system did not know how to save a person crying desperately for help… A familiar thread runs through the tragedies at the Delhi coaching centre, Indore and Noida — the lack of responsiveness and accountability. The system, it seems, is a mute witness to its own culpability. When officials say they will “fix” responsibility, they only mean they will “shift” accountability as they did in the coaching centre case, where an SUV driver was arrested for causing water to flood the basement. Unresponsiveness and lack of accountability are not the only problems. A large part of the shortcomings is structural. Scant regard for routine administration is a feature of governance today. The focus on development and “concrete” achievements has become an important part of assessing the performance of administrators. As a result, they tend to neglect routine work. Proper maintenance of records, time-bound disposal of files and periodic inspection of subordinate offices by supervisory officers receive low priority from an administration obsessed with “showcasing” achievements.” Read more: Ashok Lavasa, Indian Express

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Tech:

• India should consider age-based limits for social media, chief economic adviser says

“India’s chief economic adviser called on the government to set age-based limits on access to social media apps to counter “digital addiction”, cautioning against use of platforms by children in the largest user market for Meta and YouTube. A shift in India would align with a growing global trend. Australia last year became the first nation to enforce a social media ban for children under 16. France’s National Assembly on Monday backed legislation to ban children under 15 from social media and Britain, Denmark and Greece are studying the issue… “Policies on age-based access limits may be considered, as younger users are more vulnerable to compulsive use and harmful content,” the adviser, V. Anantha Nageswaran, wrote in the survey. “Platforms should be made responsible for enforcing age verification and age-appropriate defaults,” he added… The recommendations of the adviser are not binding on the Indian government, but are typically considered seriously in policy deliberations by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration… Cheap telecom data plans in recent years have increased usage of social media apps. Among the youth who use a smartphone, over half reported using digital platforms for education, and around 75 per cent use them for social media, the survey report said. “Digital addiction negatively affects academic performance and workplace productivity due to distractions, ‘sleep debt’, and reduced focus,” Nageswaran said.” Read more: Manoj Kumar and Munsif Vengattil, Reuters

• Death of an Indian tech worker

“Somwanshi was a star student from a small village in the farm-dotted countryside. Nine months prior, he’d landed a coveted job at Ola Krutrim, an artificial intelligence startup worth $1 billion. He was among the ranks of India’s globally renowned tech industry, which is estimated to be worth around $280 billion and employs more than 5 million people. The industry runs the spectrum from top-end firms like Krutrim to massive consulting and outsourcing companies. Getting a job at Krutrim was a big deal for Somwanshi and his community. Banners went up in his village, congratulating him. He sent funds from his first paycheck to his parents, who built a small temple on their land in gratitude for their son’s good fortune… But something has gone awry in the industry Somwanshi was entering. Eighty-three percent of India’s tech workers suffer from burnout, according to one recent survey. One in four clocks over 70 hours a week… Some of India’s tech leaders, meanwhile, are advocating 70-hour and even 90-hour workweeks, instead of the national legal maximum of 48. Tech workers paint a picture of mounting anxiety. From junior software engineers to senior project managers, workers at firms across the industry told Rest of World they were buckling under the burden of deadlines. They had little time for themselves or their families, and worried about layoffs. Most said they feared conditions would only worsen with the rise of AI… Employees and union leaders point to a series of suicides among tech workers as further evidence of a workforce in distress. Suicides are linked to multiple factors and can’t be traced to a single cause — but the cases have added to the sense of crisis within the industry. A Rest of World analysis of local news articles found 227 reported cases of suicides among Indian tech workers between 2017 and 2025.” Read more: Parth MN, Rest of World

• Climate action in a fractured world: Trends for 2026

“Carbon dioxide concentrations hit a record high in 2025. The planet neared the 1.5 Celsius warming threshold, causing extreme heatwaves, floods, droughts and wildlife globally. Biodiversity loss, of course, continued unabated… Today, as the world fragments again, what lies in store for global biodiversity and the world’s fight against climate change? The answer to that question, as team CarbonCopy concluded, lies in how the tussle between six emergent processes — some good, some bad — plays out… In effect, much of the developed world is decoupling from climate action. With that, as COP29 AND COP30 have shown, funds for adaptation and mitigation have been hard to raise. Spigots financing climate change activism are drying up as well… Even as these trends roil the world, renewable energy continues to get cheaper. In 2024, solar photovoltaics were 41% cheaper than their nearest fossil fuel alternative. At 53%, onshore wind projects were even cheaper. As energy storage projects — like BESS or Pumped Storage — added scale, old concerns about the unpredictability of renewable energy are easing as well… 2025 was not a good year for the Earth… In 2025, scientists reported that humanity has breached seven of the nine planetary boundaries — including climate change and ocean acidification — pushing the Earth’s life‑support systems into dangerous uncharted territory.” Read more: M. Rajshekhar and Archana Chaudhary, CarbonCopy

• Indian oil refiners see opportunity in Donald Trump’s Venezuela action

“Washington’s intervention to depose Maduro and take control of Venezuela’s energy resources has opened the door for Indian refiners to regain access to the world’s largest crude reserves, which they had largely stopped buying because of US sanctions… Indian refiners, including Reliance Industries, controlled by Asia’s richest man Mukesh Ambani, were major buyers of Venezuelan crude in the past, before Trump tightened sanctions on Maduro’s regime in 2019… Caracas has long looked to India as a destination for its energy exports. Venezuela’s heavy crude sells at a cheaper rate than the international Brent benchmark due to its lower quality, making it especially appealing to some Indian refiners as they seek to diversify supply and replace discounted Russian oil… After Maduro’s extradition to New York, India’s government said “recent developments in Venezuela are a matter of deep concern”, but has otherwise remained muted.” Read more: Andres Schipani, Krishn Kaushik, and Chris Kay, Financial Times

• India’s power distribution utilities post ₹2,701 crore net profit as State DisComs trim losses by 80%

“Reversing several years of losses since unbundling and corporatisation of State electricity boards, India’s power distribution utilities — namely, Distribution Companies (DisComs) and power departments — posted a net profit or positive profit after tax (PAT), primarily led by State-run DisComs trimming their losses by approximately 80% from FY 2023 to FY 2025, a senior official in the Power Ministry told The Hindu. “One of the main reasons behind this [the overall industry being in net profits] is that the State DisComs’ after-tax losses have come down sharply in these three years, by about 80%,” they stated.. Officials also expressed confidence that the Electricity Amendment Bill (2026), set to be tabled in Parliament during this Budget Session, would further help spur the trend toward profitability… The Ministry further held that distribution utilities have also accrued an improved show across all performance indicators. The Aggregate Technical and Commercial (AT&C) losses, which is an indicator of losses because of technical inefficiencies, theft, billing inefficiencies, and commercial losses combined, has reduced to 15.04% in FY 2024-25 from 22.62% in FY 2013-14.” Read more: Saptaparno Ghosh, The Hindu

• Why Maharashtra’s solar pump scheme is grabbing attention globally

“As governments search for ways to make irrigation cleaner, cheaper and less risky, one question remains unanswered: Can a model designed in one State travel to others? The pressures are similar everywhere — agriculture dependent on erratic power and costly diesel; distribution companies burdened by subsidies; and farmers in need of reliable daytime water without a bill they fear. Any scalable solution must address all three. Maharashtra’s solar pump programme is among the clearest attempts to do so. What began as a way to stabilise irrigation and reduce farm power subsidies has evolved into a structured model that other states — and even other countries — are now adapting. Under the Magel Tyala Saur Krishi Pump Yojana (MTSKPY), Maharashtra set out to install five lakh solar pumps over five years. The PM-KUSUM scheme (Component B) added another 2.75 lakh sanctioned systems. Together, these pumps — expected to be largely in place this year — are projected to irrigate about 10.45 lakh hectares and save roughly INR4,980 crore annually in avoided subsidies… Decentralised solar irrigation organised along these lines offers a credible, scalable path forward for governments tackling water stress, energy inefficiency and farm income risk.” Read more: Dilip Chenoy, The Hindu BusinessLine

• Systems-level repurposing of coal assets: Insights from South Africa, India, and the United States

“Coal based power accounts for nearly 35 % of all electricity production globally, making it the largest source of electricity among fuels. Burning coal to produce electricity and heat also represents the single largest source of greenhouse gas emissions. However, if the world is to meet global climate targets, its dependence on coal must sharply decline… Yet, studies also show that this type of sharp reduction in coal production and use could leave millions of people and communities around the world stranded, by leading to job losses and decreased local revenues. This is a justice issue, but also a political economy issue, requiring interventions in order to ensure that workers and communities support the much-needed clean energy transition… [W]hile the above studies make significant contributions, they do not provide empirical detail regarding the current status of coal value chain repurposing efforts in major coal producing countries such as India, South Africa, and the United States (US)… We define systems-level coal value chain repurposing as the transformation of two or more components of the coal value chain – such as coal mines, power plants, rail networks, trucking, and port terminals – into new industrial applications. This approach involves considering the value chain as a whole to generate new interlinked opportunities and applications that span the various elements of the value chain.” Read more: Sandeep Pai, Joey James, Deeksha Pande, Jennifer Broadhurst, Savannah Carr-Wilson, and Jackson Ewing, The Electricity Journal

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Economy:

• Flows before growth - this time is different for INR

“What is different for the Indian Rupee this cycle has been a drying up of foreign capital inflows. Importantly this is happening despite strong reported real GDP growth, low and contained inflation, and a current account deficit within historical comfort levels… More crucially, India’s net direct investment position has swung from a US$40bn inflow a couple of years back to essentially zero today, creating a hole in India’s balance of payments which must be filled in other ways.. Our analysis that shows one important contributor to Indian Rupee weakness has been the strong IPO market in India, with rising exits from PE/VC funds taking profits on existing investments, while also reflected in increasing gross FDI repatriation… Indications from public estimates and corroborated by our own bottom-up compilation suggests IPO issuance could rise to between US$20-25bn in 2026 from US$20bn last year, and with sale of shares by existing investors (so-called “offer-for-sale”) likely to remain elevated… The Indian Rupee has endured a difficult and more volatile spell over the past 18-24 months, with USD/INR rising sharply towards the 88 handle in Feb 2025, before aggressive RBI intervention and a change in the FX flow dynamics brought it down towards the 84 handle in May 2025.” Read more: Michael Wan, MUFG

• India’s central bank proposes linking BRICS’ digital currencies, sources say

“India's central bank has proposed that BRICS countries link their official digital currencies to make cross-border trade and tourism payments easier, two sources said, which could reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar as geopolitical tensions rise. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has recommended to the government that a proposal connecting the central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) be included on the agenda for the 2026 BRICS summit, the sources said. They requested anonymity because they were not authorised to speak publicly… The initiative could irritate the U.S., which has warned against any moves to bypass the dollar… The RBI, India’s central government and the central bank of Brazil did not respond to emails seeking comment. The People’s Bank of China said it had no information to share on the subject in response to a Reuters request for comment; the South African and Russian central banks declined to comment… The RBI’s proposal builds on a 2025 declaration at a BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, which pushed for interoperability between members’ payment systems to make cross-border transactions more efficient… While none of the BRICS members have fully launched their digital currencies, all five main members have been running pilot projects.” Read more: Jaspreet Kalra and Nikunj Ohri, Reuters

• Where can you find new jobs today?

“If we were to call 2021 and 2022 as statistically dream years of hiring, the period since has not been that bad either. January 2023 began with 2,72,000 active job openings, and 2024 opened at 2,65,000. Then 2025 started string with a promising 3,10,000 active talent demand. But January 2026 has opened with the second lowest active talent demand since Jan 2021 — 2,00,000 openings… Along with a record low start of active openings, 2026 is also showing sings of being an expensive year for enterprises to hold and expand talent. The recently announced labour code reforms are a great start to formalising and strengthening and securing the workforce in the long term. However, the new salary structure amendments have hit enterprises at a not-so-appropriate time in the market. The top five IT service companies have already, between them, declared about INR5,000 crore increase in salary costs… For the one crore-plus fresh talent that will graduate into the job market later this year, there just aren’t enough jobs getting added.” Read more: Kamal Karanth, The Hindu Businessline

• Why growth isn’t saving the rupee despite low inflation, modest CAD

“Last year was not a good one for the Indian rupee. It weakened steadily, even against a soft US dollar, ending 2025 as Asia’s worst-performing currency. Some argue that the rupee’s slide will be a blessing in disguise, giving long-struggling exporters a much needed boost. Perhaps it will. But before taking comfort, it is worth asking a more fundamental question: Why is the rupee falling in the first place? The puzzle is sharpened by the apparent strength of the Indian economy. Growth remains brisk, and inflation has fallen to multi-decade lows… Ordinarily, such performance would attract foreign capital, as investors chase returns, lifting the currency in the process… What makes the decline more striking is the modest current account deficit (CAD) — around 1 percent of GDP in April-September 2025. A weakening rupee suggests that even financing so small a gap has become difficult. The reason lies in persistent imbalance: Demand for rupees has lagged supply, reflecting pressures on both the trade and capital accounts. Merchandise imports averaged about $62 billion a month in 2025, far exceeding imports of roughly $37 billion and leaving a $25 billion trade deficit… Normally, such a shortfall would be easy to finance — if capital inflows were behaving as they usually do. Last year, they were anything but normal. In 2025, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew about $19 billion from Indian equities on a net basis — the worst outflow on record.” Read more: Rajeswari Sengupta, Business Standard

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Foreign Policy & Security:

• Russia-India ‘win-win’ labour deal sparks concerns over migrant workers’ rights and safety

“Undeterred by reports of scores of Indians in Russia being forcibly drafted into the Ukraine war – some of whom have died – Mr Rakesh Shah still wants to travel to Russia to work in construction, underlining the risks Indian workers are willing to take for employment… He feels a little reassured by a yet-to-be operationalised mobility agreement signed between India and Russia in December 2025 that should enable the Indian authorities to track who is going to Russia… During Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closely watched visit to India in December 2025, the two countries agreed to ease the movement of Indian workers to Russia. They also pledged to increase bilateral trade. The agreements with Russia “will open up new avenues for collaboration between the two countries”, said Ministry of External Affairs spokesman Randhir Jaiswal, in response to a question from The Straits Times at a Jan 9 briefing… The deal has brought into focus India’s push for labour mobility deals amid concerns that there are not enough safeguards to protect blue-collar Indian workers, most of whom are less educated and vulnerable to exploitation, going overseas for work… In the absence of extensive efforts from the Indian government, the possibility of more Indian workers being deceived or incentivised into joining Russia’s war effort remains very real. There do not appear to be clear frameworks for the rescue of those who might fall into this trap.” Read more: Nirmala Ganapathy and Kalicharan Veera Singam, The Straits Times

• A Long Time Coming: Europe and India have discovered a strategic partnership

“The relationship between Europe and India is on the cusp of change. Later this month, in a historic first, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will serve as guest of honor, a position reserved for India’s top partners, at the country’s Republic Day ceremony. At the subsequent EU-India summit, the two sides are likely to sign a long-elusive free trade agreement (FTA) and an expansive security and defense partnership… For some observers this momentum is the result of the rocky relationships that Europe and India have with the United States. In a world of fractured alliances and partnerships, Europe and India need each other like never before. But the groundwork for their current ties was laid over the last decade. Structural factors such as competition with China, and India’s policy of diversification that led it to focus on ties with the West, have brought them closer and raised bilateral ambitions… Indian interlocutors interviewed for this piece argued that their efforts started being reciprocated only after certain leadership changes in Europe. Germany, following the departure of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, is seen as one prominent example. But a shift in the European Commission is arguably the most important change. As an Indian official noted, “India had always reached out to the EU”, but the ground “only really shifted under von der Leyen”. Geopolitical changes also played a role.” Read more: Garima Mohan, German Marshall Fund

• The post-order moment, for India and the world

“Trump’s personality may be an aberration, but his policies are a high point, if not a culmination, of a US trend in the making for some time. The US is abandoning the international system it created because it no longer finds it useful… The post-War order is behind us because its creators no longer need it, and the once-excluded new powers have no love for it. We are in a transition with the debris of a broken system, in the uncertainty that follows the end of anything… How we see the future order depends on our time-frame. More than the debate on a bipolar or a multipolar world, or the likely winner of great power competition, it is more important to focus on the forces shaping the world… The greatest challenge will be to avoid extrapolating past assumptions and choices into the future. Now, focusing on the drivers of the future matters as much, if not more, than simply managing relationships. Disruptions inevitably extract short term costs. For India, preparing for the future order — and help shape it — will require, first, rapid accretion to domestic capacities and social cohesion that impart strength and resilience, as also reframing traditional relationships and diversifying partnerships to mitigate risks and build influence.” Read more: Jawed Ashraf, Hindustan Times

• India’s turbulent involvement in Iran’s Chabahar port all but collapses

“India’s decade-old, turbulent involvement in developing Iran’s Chabahar port has all but collapsed after US President Donald Trump said on January 12 that any country doing business with the Persian Gulf nation will face a 25 percent tariff “on any and all business being done with the United States of America.” To be sure, the United States crippled India’s strategic play be reimposing sanctions on the port from September 29, 2025. However, based on details provided by India on how it planned to “wind down all activities at the Port of Chabahar, including at the Shahid Beheshti terminal or any other related facilities,” the Office of Foreign Assets Controls (OFAC) under the US Department of the Treasury has granted a six-month exemption from sanctions. The current waiver came into effect on October 29, 2025, and is valid until April 26 this year… Around the time the government sanctioned funds ahead of signing the long-term 10-year deal in May 2024 to run the Shahid Beheshti terminal at Chabahar Port, it was known that the US would reimpose sanctions on the port.” Read more: P. Manoj, Economic Times

People & Politics:

• Cash-for-votes allegations surface across Mumbai, MMR ahead of civic polls

“Just before civic body elections across Mumbai and the wider Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) region, political parties appear to be pulling out all stops to sway voters, with allegations of cash distribution surfacing from multiple neighbourhoods. In one such incident, a resident of New Panvel said two men, estimated to be between 25 and 30 years old, entered a gated high-rise community and went door to door carrying envelopes filled with cash. “I was at home when the doorbell rang,” the resident told India Today TV. “When I opened the door, two men stood there. They took my husband’s name and said they had come to hand over money for the local civic body voting scheduled for January 15.”… She later learnt from a neighbour that the envelopes being distributed contained Rs 2,000 for each household. Similar reports have emerged from other parts of the MMR region and from at least one area in Mumbai city. In another incident shared with India Today TV, residents of a plush high-rise in central Mumbai said party workers attempted to distribute cash-filled envelopes containing Rs 5,000, though most residents turned them away.” Read more: Divyesh Singh, India Today

• Why does Delhi monopolise major sporting events even as pollution and player welfare are always genuine concerns?

“There were a bunch of conclusions to draw from the horror week at India Open badminton where Delhi’s hosting cred ended up shredded. Whether Delhi ought to host the World Championships in August and subsequent editions of the Super 750 event (it’s the second tier below the top-most Super 1000s) is one of the many intractable questions. India has delivered successful sporting events in the past, including the 2009 Badminton World Championships in Hyderabad and the Commonwealth Games in 2010, where the Siri Fort finale helped the Indian contingent leapfrog England to second place in the medal tally on the back of folks for Saina Nehwal and Jwala Gutta-Ashwini Ponappa, and cross the 100 mark… A constant criticism of Delhi as a venue, even before the air quality plunged startlingly, has also ben due to how it denies other legitimate contenders, the real badminton hubs Hyderabad and Bengaluru, a chance to host big events.” Read more: Shivani Naik, Indian Express

• In the gig economy, law and labour are at odds

“On New Year’s Eve, a planned strike by platform and gig workers across the country reopened an ongoing debate about the conditions of platform work in India. At the heart of this debate is a very simple issue: What is the correct way of understanding the relationship between online platforms (such as Uber, Ola, Blinkit, Zomato, and so on) and their workers? The reason why this is important is because labour laws — not just in India, but across the world — are based on a simple premise: The employer and the worker are not equally powerful parties when it comes to setting the terms and conditions of a work relationship… Across the world, platform companies have attempted to evade their obligations under labour law by classifying their relationship with their workers as simply “contractual”, and not as employment relationships. It is no coincidence that Indian platform companies call their workers “delivery partners” instead of “employees”: They do so because they can then claim that the labour law framework does not apply to them… It is the platform that — through the app — sets the terms and conditions of the work (including remuneration), decides who can access the platform (and on what conditions), conducts surveillance, and also has the unilateral power to remove a worker off the platform. All of this, it may be noted, is opaque and non-transparent, as platforms resist any attempts at disclosure by citing competition law and protection of trade secrets.” Read more: Gautam Bhatia, Hindustan Times

• New ‘PM Research Chair’ scheme to bring 120 global Indian scientists back to IITs

“A “Prime Minister Research Chair (PMRC)” scheme to attract top Indian-origin researchers and scientists is in the works, with a proposal to engage 120 research fellows and research chairs over five years. The IIT Council — the apex coordination body of the IITs — was informed of this at its last meeting. An official in the Education Ministry presented the proposal on the Prime Minister Research Chair scheme to “attract and engage global talent of Indian origin” – at the IIT council meeting in August last year, going by the minutes of the meeting, which were released on Monday. The scheme aims to attract top Indian-origin researchers and scientists to “strengthen India’s higher education and research ecosystem,” according to the minutes.” Read more: Abhinaya Harigovind, Indian Express

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Tech:

• Despite Trump’s tariffs, Tesla doubles auto component sourcing from India to $4–4.5 billion

“Tesla Inc. significantly expanded its engagement with Indian auto component manufacturers in calendar year 2025, sourcing parts worth an estimated $4–4.5 billion from the country—nearly double the value procured a year earlier—according to people familiar with the matter. The sharp scale-up came even as US President Donald Trump imposed steep tariffs on a range of Indian exports, creating fresh trade friction between the two countries… Tesla’s procurement from India has risen rapidly over the past three years—from about $1 billion in 2023 to nearly $2 billion in 2024—before accelerating sharply in 2025. Industry executives said India has emerged as one of Tesla’s “fastest-growing” sourcing bases outside North America… Spokespersons of the aforementioned companies could not be reached for comment owing to non-disclosure agreements with Tesla. However, people aware of the development said Tesla steadily expanded both the scale and complexity of components sourced from India during the year. The procurement basket spans wiring harnesses, forged and cast parts, gearboxes, electric motors, suspension systems, sheet metal assemblies, powertrain modules, bearings and advanced electronic components, as per well-informed sources.” Read more: Avishek Banerjee, Fortune India

• Indian Govt. Delicenses Half of 6 GHz Band for Wi-Fi Despite Opposition From Telecom Operators

“The Department of Telecommunications (DoT) has delicensed half of the spectrum in the 6 GHz band for Wi-Fi networks. This band covers a smaller network area, but offers faster speeds and lower latency, making it a viable option for cloud-based gaming or virtual reality (VR) headsets that require high-speed connectivity… According to the official gazette notification, the use of the 6 GHz frequency band, specifically 5925–6425 MHz, is prohibited on oil platforms and for indoor operations in vehicles such as cars and trains, as well as boats, drones, unmanned aerial systems, and aircraft, except when aircraft are flying above 10,000 feet. Generally, the commercial flying altitude for aircraft ranges from 15,000 to 42,000 feet, depending on the aircraft’s size and the distance between destinations… Industry groups such as the Wi-Fi Alliance argue that governments should allocate this band to Wi-Fi, citing chronic bandwidth shortages and congestion in existing Wi-Fi spectrum, particularly in densely populated areas. Current Wi-Fi operates in unlicensed bands shared with other technologies, such as Bluetooth and remote-controlled devices, which limits performance. These bands cannot reliably support high-throughput, low-latency use cases that the 6 GHz spectrum can.” Read more: Azdhan, Medianama

• India EV market hits 2.3 million sales in 2025, policy support, festive demand drive adoption

“India's electric vehicle (EV) market crossed a major milestone in 2025, with total EV sales reaching 2.3 million units, accounting for 8 per cent of all new vehicle registrations, according to the Annual Report: India EV Market 2025 prepared by the India Energy Storage Alliance (IESA) based on Vahan Portal data… India's broader automobile market recorded 28.2 million vehicle registrations in 2025, with two-wheelers remaining dominant, accounting for over 20 million units (72 per cent of total sales). Passenger four-wheelers crossed 4.4 million units, while tractors and agricultural vehicles exceeded 1.06 million units, reflecting broadly stable demand across segments. The report noted that overall vehicle sales growth remained broadly stable across Q1-Q3, followed by a festive-led acceleration in Q4, aided by GST benefits and year-end consumer demand. Electric two-wheelers continued to anchor EV adoption, with 1.28 million units sold, representing 57 per cent of total EV sales. Electric three-wheelers (L3 and L5 combined) followed with 0.8 million units, or 35 per cent share, while electric four-wheelers recorded 1.75 lakh units.” Read more: Economic Times

• Reliance Halts Cell-Making Plans After Failed Bid for China Tech

“Reliance Industries Ltd. has paused plans to make lithium-ion battery cells in India after failing to secure Chinese technology, said people familiar with the matter, reflecting how even the country’s most powerful businesses are struggling to build out an independent clean-energy supply chain. The Mukesh Ambani-led oil-to-telecoms conglomerate, which had aimed to begin cell manufacturing this year, had been in discussions with a Chinese lithium iron phosphate supplier Xiamen Hithium Energy Storage Technology Co. to license cell technology, according to the people who did not want to be identified as the information is not public. Those talks stalled after the Chinese company withdrew from the proposed partnership amid Beijing’s curbs on overseas technology transfers in key sectors, the people said… A Reliance spokesperson denied that there has been any change in the company’s renewable energy plans, which include a battery gigafactory it previously said would start operating in 2026… Reliance’s internal teams have concluded that proceeding without access to proven Chinese cell technology would significantly raise costs and execution risks, particularly as global markets are already grappling with excess battery capacity, said the people familiar with the discussions.” Read more: Alisha Sachdev, Bloomberg

• Fiscal Support for Electric Vehicles in India: Incentives, CO₂ Abatement, and Policy Trade-offs

“The government’s push towards vehicle electrification in recent years has been driven by the need to reduce emissions from the road transportation sector. Central and state governments have been offering incentives to bridge the cost differential between electric vehicles (EVs) and conventional Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles… The study finds that for the same level of incentives, an electric two-wheeled vehicle is able to avoid nearly twice as much CO2 emissions compared to an electric passenger car. This gap arises due to the higher magnitude of the electric car incentive and the limited emission advantage of an electric car over its conventional counterpart on account of the former’s below-par energy economy…. Mitigation of one tonne of CO2 through electrification of passenger cars costs the government significantly more than through clean electricity generation from residential RTS or offshore wind. However, the support per unit of CO2 abated offered to green hydrogen as a replacement of grey hydrogen is at par with electric passenger cars… It is important to consider here that the climate benefit from EV incentives is lower due to the high carbon burden of India’s grid electricity, where fossil fuels account for almost 75% of the generation.” Read more: Shyamasis Das and Tarandeep Kaur, Centre for Social and Economic Progress

• Discoms selling green power at lower than cost price on exchanges; growing crisis threatens green energy trajectory

“A deluge of solar power and rules binding electricity distributors to purchase it are prompting distress sales on India’s electricity exchanges, trade data showed. Discoms sitting on excess power often sell it on exchanges at a loss, as the alternative would be to receive nothing, given the weak demand during solar hours. On the country’s largest exchange, Indian Energy Exchange, prices during peak solar time recently crashed to as low as INR 0.50 per unit, while long-term contract typically lock discoms into paying between INR 2 and INR 3.50 per unit… The crisis has prompted the industry to seek solutions. Four people familiar with the matter said distributors are now calling for a slowdown in the growth of green energy and more flexibility in mandatory purchase targets. The issue gains significance since India’s short-term electricity market is now a INR 1 trillion industry, with exchanges handling 175 billion units of power annually.” Read more: Rituraj Baruah, Mint

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Economy:

• Risks Remain Elevated for India Investors, Warns Former Adviser

“India’s former chief economic adviser is skeptical of the 7.4% growth estimate for this fiscal year through March. “We should be cautious about both the level and direction in which India’s economy is headed,” Arvind Subramanian told me this morning in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “It would be very odd for capital to be fleeing a country where growth, at 7.4%, is so much greater than anywhere in the world,” he said, flagging the disconnect… Subramanian advised lowering expectations for next year’s (fiscal 2027) growth. “If at the end of the year, the growth numbers are similar to where they were this year, I think India should consider itself both lucky and a job well done”.” Read more: Menaka Doshi and Baiju Kalesh, Bloomberg

• India’s Economic Resilience: Navigating Economic Growth

“India’s growth story in recent years has been predominantly fueled by public capital expenditure on infrastructure, which has cushioned the economy against external shocks. Government spending on roads, railways, and urban development has accelerated, with the FY26 Union Budget allocating ₹11.21 lakh crore for infrastructure—3.1% of GDP… Yet, private investment remains subdued, often described as “shy.” Gross fixed capital formation has shown green shoots but lags behind public efforts. Corporate capex, while recovering, is constrained by global uncertainties and a preference for deleveraging over expansion. Data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) indicate that private corporate investment growth slipped to 0.7% of GDP in early 2025, down from 1.3% in FY24-25. This hesitation stems from uneven demand recovery, particularly in rural areas, and external trade pressures… The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has adopted a hawkish stance amid persistent uncertainties, and later cutting the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.25% in December 2025—the fifth reduction in 2025, totalling 125 bps. This relatively hawkish moment reflects caution over potential inflation from tariffs and supply disruptions. Though one may expect further room for policy rate cuts with CPI figures in November 2025 with only 0.71 percent, the RBI MPCprojected CPI at 2.0% for FY26.” Read more: Lekha Chakraborty, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy

• India needs to import more capital and export fewer workers

“India is still reporting world-beating economic growth but no longer getting any love for it. Flows of foreign money into the country have dried up, suggesting outsiders believe that the reported GDP growth rate of over 8 per cent masks underlying weaknesses. Most strikingly, corporate revenue normally grows (or shrinks) with the economy — in any country. But last year corporate revenue growth for listed companies in India decelerated to barely half the GDP growth rate… Among the leading signs of weakness: India is losing more people and attracting a lot less money than it used to. This decade, a net total of 675,000 people emigrated each year, up from 325,000 in the 2010s. Only Pakistan, Bangladesh and Ukraine have seen a larger exodus while China is haemorrhaging people at the same pace as it did in the last decade, 300,000 a year… Employment growth continues to be weak; even at the famed Indian Institutes of Technology, 38 per cent graduated without a single job offer from a campus recruiter in 2024… Asian economies that have sustained rapid growth — such as China and Vietnam more recently — saw net foreign direct investment surge above 4 per cent of GDP during their boom phases. That figure never surpassed 1.5 per cent in India, and it is now just 0.1 per cent. Over the past decade, India dropped in the rankings for net FDI/GDP, from 12th to 19th among the 25 largest emerging countries.” Read more: Ruchir Sharma, Financial Times

• Gen Z, millennials in India believe finding jobs will be tough in 2026: LinkedIn study

“A majority of Gen Z and millennials in India believe that it will be more challenging for them to find jobs in 2026, as their ambition for a career change faces the new pressures of uncertainty and unpreparedness, LinkedIn reported on Thursday. According to data exclusively shared by the professional platform with The Hindu, as job search gets challenging, India’s younger professionals are seeking clarity and transparency to streamline career growth.. Some 80% of Gen Z and 75% of millennials say it will be more challenging to find a job this year, LinkedIn found… However, 77% of Gen Z and 71% of millennials also said it was hard to find reliable advice and guidance to help in the job-seeking process, LinkedIn said. “They [job seekers] sought clarity from recruiters on what they could’ve done better,” LinkedIn reported based on its recent research… As per another data set released by LinkedIn, some 84% of professionals feel unprepared to find a new job, although 72% said they were actively seeking a new role in 2026.” Read more: Mini Tejaswi, The Hindu

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Foreign Policy & Security:

• Beyond Optics: India’s New Strategic-Commercial Linkages

“America’s volatile foreign policy is forcing India to revisit its own priorities. Domestically, the Modi government seems intent to move faster on domestic reforms to buttress growth that is ordinarily fueled by commercial ties with the United States… Despite recurring difficulties, the United States is India’s indispensable economic partner. America is India’s largest export destination for both goods and IT services; the largest source of remittances; and, while “official” totals for inward foreign investment place the United States as the third-largest source, this is significantly distorted by Indian and third country investors taking advantage of India’s favorable tax treaties with Singapore and Mauritius… Helpfully, the “flash” of India’s engagements with American adversaries is overshadowed in “substance” with the quality of its agreements with America’s friends and allies. Some agreements pre-date President Trump’s return to office, but the pace of concluding agreements is accelerating. Look no further than comparing the outcomes of Prime Minister Modi’s late 2025 engagements with Japan and Philippines versus that of Russia.” Read more: Richard Rossow, Center for Strategic and International Studies

• Turmoil in Tehran and its geopolitical aftershocks

“Iran once again stands at the epicentre of a geopolitical storm, navigating what may be its most perilous convergence of crises since the 1979 revolution. The Islamic Republic is no longer merely managing dissent — it faces a systemic uprising fuelled by economic suffocation and the erosion of its strategic deterrence… The State’s response follows a familiar pattern of mass arrests, internet blackouts, and lethal force. Yet repression today carries higher stakes. The population is younger, less ideological, and openly sceptical of leaders who invoke foreign conspiracies while daily survival grows increasingly precarious… For India, the turmoil in Iran poses immediate and multi-layered risks despite limited direct economic exposure. The main concern is an escalation involving the US or Israel, which could disrupt maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — leading to spikes in global oil prices, increased shipping and insurance costs, and higher inflation and fiscal pressures in India… For India, sitting on the fence is no longer tenable. New Delhi must act now — shaping outcomes, not reacting to them — or risk waking up to a reordered neighbourhood where energy lifelines are severed, strategic investments lie abandoned, and instability spirals beyond control.” Read more: Ausaf Sayeed, Hindustan Times

• Trump’s India Envoy Offers Hope Amid a Strained Relationship

“Sergio Gor, a close ally of President Trump, began his role as the United States ambassador to India on Monday, promising to help resolve differences that have badly strained ties between the two nations. “Real friends can disagree, but always resolve their differences in the end,” Mr. Gor said in a speech to hundreds of embassy staff members, emphasizing Mr. Trump’s “great friendship” with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Such sentiments may have rung hollow to Indian officials, who in recent months have been trying to rebuild the bilateral relationship after a series of blows by Mr. Trump that has left them confused about American objectives… Mr. Gor, 39, previously served as Mr. Trump’s head of presidential personnel appointments. Before that, he helped lead a publishing venture that produced Mr. Trump’s books… His closeness to Mr. Trump could help New Delhi troubleshoot the relationship at a time when it is struggling to get its message to the president’s inner circle. But Mr. Gor also comes with complications that have made Indian officials cautious: He has an additional role as a special envoy to South and Central Asia, which includes India’s rival Pakistan.” Read more: Mujib Mashal, New York Times

• US companies hit by anti-Indian racism as Donald Trump restricts foreign worker visas

“After a video of a wrecked FedEx lorry circulated on X just before Christmas, dozens of commenters quickly blamed the pile-up on the Indian heritage of the logistics company’s chief executive. “Stop the fucking Indian takeover of our great American companies,” read one post… FedEx is one of a growing number of US businesses that have faced a surge of anti-Indian racism amid the Trump administration’s efforts to restrict foreign skilled labour. The non-profit Center for the Study of Organized Hate has tracked what executive director Raqib Naik dubbed “co-ordinated campaigns” to harass Indian American entrepreneurs who received loans from the Small Business Administration, a government agency… Accusations that FedEx chief executive Raj Subramaniam has been laying off white American workers and replacing them with Indian workers — which the company denies — have been amplified by rightwing commentators, including Andrew Torba, founder of social media platform Gab… Experts tracking anti-Indian rhetoric online say vitriol surged after President Donald Trump announced revisions to the H-1B visa programme in September.” Read more: Taylor Nicole Rogers, Financial Times

• Is hiring lobby firms common in diplomacy?

“The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) faced uncomfortable questions this week as filings with the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) showed that the Indian Embassy in Washington used an American lobby firm for unconventional tasks normally done by diplomats… For the last few years, the Embassy had focused on three agencies: Republican Party-linked BGR Government Affairs, Democrat Party-linked Cornerstone Government Affairs, and the African American caucus-linked Williams Group (terminated in 2025). In 2025, after the swearing-in of U.S. President Donald Trump, the Embassy hired three more, including two closely linked to Trump associates — SHW LLC headed by former Trump spokesperson and campaign strategist Jason Miller, and Mercury Public Affairs, where White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles was earlier co-chair. SHW LLC was contracted for $1.8 million (₹16 crore) or $1,50,000 a month… To a detailed questionnaire sent by The Hindu, the Indian Embassy spokesperson said that “it is a standard practice for embassies, private and business organisations in the U.S. to hire the services of lobbyists and consultants to augment outreach.” The MEA and the Embassy, however, did not explain why the tasks of diplomats to set up key meetings were outsourced, or why the calls on May 10 were made. Also unanswered is the question of how effective such firms are. India and the U.S. have conflicting narratives over Operation Sindoor.” Read more: Suhasini Haidar, The Hindu

• Chinese Communist Party delegation in India meet BJP officials

“A six-member delegation from the International Liaison Department (ILD) of the Communist Party of China (CPC), led by Vice Minister Sun Haiyan, is currently visiting New Delhi for high-level party-to-party engagements. In the past as well, such conversations have happened, but this is the first such party-to-party conversation since what is seen as a “thaw” in India, China ties. Historical records show intermittent party-level contacts between the CPC and the BJP dating back to the late 2000s, including visits by BJP delegations to China and reciprocal meetings in India… This visit comes amid a noticeable thaw in India-China relations, which had been strained for years by border tensions, including the deadly 2020 Galwan Valley clash… 2025 was full of high-level engagements between the 2 countries. EAM Dr S Jaishankar, NSA Ajit Doval, Defence minister Rajnath Singh & PM Modi has visited China for SCO meets & Summit. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has visited India for key talks.” Read more: Siddhant Sibbal, Wion News

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People & Politics:

• Assam’s nowhere people: 24 hours to leave India, tossed back and forth across Bangladesh border

“In the last eight months, Taher Ali, a peasant from Assam’s Nagaon district has been forced out of India and into the no man’s land abutting Bangladesh not once – but three times. Twice, he was sent back by Bangladesh border officials, Hasan Ali, a 31-year-old vegetable vendor, told Scroll. Taher Ali is a “declared foreigner”, someone who has failed to prove that he is an Indian citizen before the state’s foreigners tribunals even though he has lived his entire life in Assam. The tribunals are quasi-judicial bodies that have stripped thousands of Assam’s residents of their citizenship, many times through ex-parte orders that were passed without hearing the accused – as was the case with Taher Ali… Since November, the state government has issued orders to 22 declared foreigners to “remove themselves” from the country “within 24 hours”, leaving families with no opportunity to move court. But with Bangladesh refusing to allow them in, people like Taher Ali are trapped in a vicious cycle of “push-backs” and returns… Scroll contacted the Border Security Force spokesperson and the Union ministry of home affairs, asking if declared foreigners expelled under the 1950 law were repeatedly pushed into Bangladesh, and if their nationality had been verified before. The story will be updated if they respond.” Read more: Rokibuz Zaman, Scroll

• When I signed up to make deliveries on Zomato, Blinkit and Swiggy for a day

“For three days last week, I signed up as a delivery worker, navigating Delhi’s traffic and architecture of India’s gig' economy. My experience of working for a day each across Zomato, Blinkit and Swiggy platforms laid bare a grim reality: India’s convenience economy runs on the backs of delivery workers, and the costs — financial, physical, psychological — are theirs alone to carry. The numbers were stark. Across three days, I rode 105 km on a TVS 125 cc scooter to complete more than 20 deliveries and clocked over 15 years of work. Total earnings: Rs 782. After fuel costs of Rs 250, I was left with Rs 532, or roughly Rs 34 per hour — well below minimum wage standards in most formal sectors — without accounting for vehicle maintenance, phone bills, or the physical toll of spending hours navigating Delhi’s roads, waiting for orders and lugging heavy loads up buildings… At Rs 355 at the end of six deliveries, Zomato yielded the most earnings, followed by Blinkit at Rs 313.27 (11 deliveries), while Swiggy bought in just Rs 114 (6 deliveries) — a figure diminished by the platform’s penalty system that docks Rs 30 every time a worker turns down an order.” Read more: Soumyarendra Barik, Indian Express

• Sambhal court orders FIR against former CO Anuj Chaudhary, others in 2024 violence case

“A local court in Uttar Pradesh’s Sambhal district has ordered the registration of a criminal case against more than a dozen police personnel, including senior officers, over their alleged role in a shooting incident during the November 2024 violence near the Shahi Jama Masjid. Those named include Anuj Chaudhary, the then Circle Officer of Sambhal, and Anuj Tomar, the then Station House Officer of Sambhal Kotwali… Chief Judicial Magistrate Vibhanshu Sudhir issued the order on January 9 after hearing a petition filed by Yameen, a resident of the Khaggu Sarai Anjuman area, under Section 173 (4) of the Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita (BNSS). The BNSS section empowers individual to seek judicial intervention when the police fail to act… In his petition, Mr. Yameen alleged that his son Alam was shot by policemen during the unrest on November 24, 2024. “Alam had stepped out to sell rusk and biscuits when he was caught in the violence and suffered three bullet injuries,” the petition said. Advocate Qamar Hussain, counsel representing Mr. Yameen, said the petitioner told the court that out of fear, he took his son to neighbouring districts for treatment, but was refused admission.” Read more: Mayank Kumar, The Hindu

• Goa SIR: Former Navy Chief asked to show more papers

“Former Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Arun Prakash, and his wife received notices from the Election Commission of India (ECI) asking them to submit additional documents to establish them as registered electors during the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Goa. The Admiral, a decorated war veteran and a Vir Chakra awardee, who settled in Goa after retirement, has been marked under the “unmapped” category. “My wife and I have been asked to appear before ECI officials on two separate dates, and we shall comply with their request. The language of the notice is quite complicated and difficult to understand,” Adm Prakash told The Indian Express… In a post on X on Sunday, the Admiral said, “I neither need nor have ever asked for any special privileges since retirement 20 years ago. My wife and I had filled the SIR forms as required and were pleased to see our names figured in the Goa Draft Electoral Roll 2026 on the EC website. We will, however, comply with EC notices.” He said a booth-level officer (BLO) visited them thrice and could have sought additional information, pointing out that SIR forms should be revised if they are not “evoking” required information… Sanjay Goel, Goa’s Chief Electoral Officer (CEO), did not respond to requests for a comment.” Read more: Pavneet Singh Chadha, Indian Express

• Equality is not the enemy of growth – oligarchy is

“If one were to read public debates in India on economic equality, one might be forgiven for associating equality with four sins. First, what matters, apparently, is poverty reduction, not inequality — inequality is dismissed as a distraction. Second, equality is portrayed as the enemy of entrepreneurship. Third, it is assumed to entail greater bureaucratic control by the state. Finally, talk of equality is cast as resentful, socialist levelling down… But what is striking about these associations is the absence of even a rudimentary understanding of why, quite apart from any intrinsic appeal, there are compelling pragmatic reasons to take equality seriously, precisely to achieve the very objectives that inequality is said to advance… First, the claim that poverty reduction and equality are rivals is a laughable piece of mystification. High inequality can directly undermine poverty reduction by weakening the growth elasticity of poverty… Second, the relationship between equality and entrepreneurship is far more complex than is usually acknowledged. Under some conditions, inequality might spur growth, but this relationship is contingent and fragile… Third, equality does not logically entail bureaucratic micromanagement. Indeed, high inequality often requires more discretionary state power, not less: Subsidies to capital, regulatory forbearance for large firms, selective tax enforcement, and ad-hoc bailouts… Finally, the charge of resentful levelling down misunderstands the direction of causality. Egalitarian policies are not about pulling the top down, but about preventing inequality from corroding the social and economic conditions necessary for sustained prosperity.” Read more: Pratap Bhanu Mehta, Indian Express

Tech:

• Can India catch up with the US, Taiwan and China in the global chip race?

“In October, a small electronics manufacturer in the western Indian state of Gujarat shipped its first batch of chip modules to a client in California. Kaynes Semicon, together with Japanese and Malaysian technology partners, assembled the chips in a new factory funded with incentives under Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s $10bn semiconductor push announced in 2021… The upcoming foundry in Gujarat is a collaboration between India’s Tata Group, one of the largest conglomerates in the country, and Taiwan’s Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC), which is assisting with the plant’s construction and technology transfer… Even if delayed, the project marks a pivotal moment for India, which has seen multiple attempts to build a commercial fab stall in the past… The upcoming projects in India – both the foundry and the ATP units – will primarily focus on legacy, or mature, chips sized between 28nm and 110nm. While these chips are not at the cutting-edge of semiconductor technology, they account for the bulk of global demand, with applications across cars, industrial equipment and consumer electronics.” Read more: Aggam Walia, Al Jazeera

• ‘Natgrid’, the search engine of digital authoritarianism

“NATGRID was first publicly announced on December 23, 2009, in a speech by the Home Minister. The constitutional question that arose immediately was not whether the state may ever conduct surveillance, but on whether a project of this magnitude could operate without a statutory framework and independent oversight… For years, NATGRID’s constant delays led people to believe it was ‘vaporware’. A project that existed on paper but did not actually work as a massive search engine for tracking citizens that was only announced to calm public anger after the 26/11 attacks. Well, it is now becoming a reality that can no longer be ignored… The legality of intelligence programmes that lack any clear statutory foundation or meaningful oversight has not been squarely adjudicated, despite multiple pending cases. In place of scrutiny, we have a martial public temper fanned by political rhetoric and cultural moulding, including mainstream cinema, that treats questioning the security establishment as heresy. The result is a near silence about accountability for acts of terrorism such as the New Delhi bombing of November 10, 2025, and the heartbreaking loss of 15 lives. Is it impolite to ask whether there was an “intelligence failure” even with NATGRID in place?” Read more: Apar Gupta, The Hindu

• No ‘AI toys’, think big: Inside PM Modi’s closed-door meeting with startups ahead of IndiaAI Impact Summit

“In the run-up to the IndiaAI Impact Summit in February, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a closed-door meeting with AI startups at his Lok Kalyan Marg residence, bringing together companies approved to develop foundational models under the IndiaAI Mission. The interaction, attended by IT minister Ashwini Vaishnaw, minister of state Jitin Prasada and MeitY secretary S Krishnan, was described by participants as informal, wide-ranging and detailed… Several said this was one of the first reviews Modi wanted to take up this year, underlining the priority being given to artificial intelligence. One message, sources said, came through repeatedly: India must think big. The Prime Minister reportedly was clear that AI will have a transformative impact globally and that India should aim to lead rather than settle for limited demonstrations… Multiple sources said Modi reportedly also spoke at length about AI safety and trust, flagging the growing challenge of verifying the source and truth of AI-generated content. Among the ideas discussed was the use of watermarking for AI-generated text, images and outputs to improve credibility and traceability.” Read more: Bhavya Dilipkumar and Aihik Sur, Moneycontrol

• AI Adoption Journey for Population Scale

“The question is: where does AI add value? For which user, in which workflow, with what measurable improvement, and with what accountability when it is wrong? Shankar Maruwada, CEO and co-founder of the EkStep Foundation, argues that “adoption is proving harder than invention, especially for general-purpose technologies, as it once was for electricity. As a result, AI adoption remains on the sidelines.” A pilot operates in a controlled environment, but production does not. What appears tractable in a limited trial must, in reality, contend with a range of operational and organizational complexities, including data flows, legacy systems, workforce turnover, competing incentives, procurement requirements, and compliance constraints… The absence of shared institutional vocabulary and governance frameworks further impedes adoption. Differences in definitions of core terms such as use case, impact, or benchmark between technology builders, operators, and regulators can contribute to miscommunication, procurement delays, and unclear decision criteria… If AI adoption is a systems problem, then the right mental model is diffusion, not invention alone. Jeffrey Ding uses the phrase “diffusion capacity” and defines it as the ability “to spread and adopt innovations… across productive processes.” That is the frame most AI programs need.” Read more: Shalini Kapoor and Tanvi Lall, Carnegie India

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Bonus:

• Drop in single-screen cinemas, uneven multiplex growth shrink scope for movie-goers

“The decline of single-screen cinemas and the concentration of multiplexes in the top metros are narrowing options for India’s movie-goers and hurting box office collections of films, according to experts. Single-screen cinemas that dominated the country’s theatrical landscape a decade ago, have shrunk to about 6,500 properties in 2025 from 9,500, hit by rising real estate prices and the availability of content on streaming platforms, according to experts… According to a report by The Multiplex Association of India (MAI), prepared by EY, out of 19,000 postal zones in the country, 16,350 have no cinema screens. The number of screens has fallen from 7.6 per million population in 2018 to 6.8 in 2024. Of India’s population of 1.4 billion, less than 150 million (10%) are estimated to attend a movie in theatres in a year… Closure of single screens has essentially meant that a lot of people who earlier had access to movie theatres, don’t anymore.” Read more: Lata Jha, Mint

Watch/listen:

• Ram Guha Speaks: Gadgil and His Fight for India and Western Ghats | The News Minute

• Humans of the yamuna: Delhi’s divers and boatmen at Nigambodh Ghat risk their lives daily | People’s Archive of Rural India

“It should be apparent that the historical and cultural trajectories of India and China are different, and the particularities of our respective civilisations are only dimly understood by the people of the two countries, including by scholars.” - Shyam Saran, How China Sees India and the World, 228.

“A fact that confounds me now, when I think back on it, is that for most of my life China was for me a vast, uniform blankness. The huge space that hovered above India on maps might just as well have been marked: ‘Here be dragons’… Thinking back, it seems to me that my blankness in relation to China was not the result of a lack of curiosity, or opportunity, or anything circumstantial. I am convinced that it was the product of an inner barrier that has been implanted in the minds of not just Indians but also Americans, Europeans and many other people across the world, through certain patterns of global history. And as the years go by and China’s shadow lengthens upon the world, these barriers are clearly hardening, especially in India and the United States.” - Amitav Ghosh, Smoke and Ashes: A Writer’s Journey Through Opium’s Hidden Histories, 1-3.

Given India’s China challenge, it behooves us to read more about, and better understand, our neighbour. I have arranged the recommendations alphabetically and included a variety of reads that touch on China’s bureaucracy, climate politics, energy goals, ties with India and the United States respectively, and more. If you find any value in this post, please do share it with your friends and colleagues. On to the recommendations —

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• “A frustrating role reversal is undermining America,” The Washington Post, November 10, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/11/10/china-xi-jinping-asean-apec-asia/.

• “Beijing insiders’ plan how to play Donald Trump,” The Economist, November 11, 2025, https://www.economist.com/international/2025/11/11/beijing-insiders-plan-to-play-donald-trump.

• Alexander C. Kaufman, “China moves to supercharge green hydrogen as US pulls back,” Canary Media, October 28, 2025, https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/hydrogen/china-policy-boost-green-industry.

• Anika Patel, “Interview: How ‘mid-level bureaucrats’ are helping to shape Chinese climate policy,” Carbon Brief, December 9, 2025, https://www.carbonbrief.org/interview-how-mid-level-bureaucrats-are-helping-to-shape-chinese-climate-policy/.

• Camille Boullenois, Malcolm Black and Daniel H. Rosen, “Was Made in China 2025 Successful?” Rhodium Group, May 5, 2025, https://rhg.com/research/was-made-in-china-2025-successful/.

• China Power Team, “Measuring China’s Manufacturing Might” ChinaPower Project, CSIS, Updated November 25, 2025, https://chinapower.csis.org/tracker/china-manufacturing/.

• Dan Wang, “2025 Letter,” January 1, 2026, https://danwang.co/2025-letter/.

• Fanny Potkin, “How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips,” Reuters, December 17, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manhattan-project-rival-west-ai-chips-2025-12-17/.

• Gerard DiPoppo, “Changing Course in a Storm: China’s Economy in the Trade War,” China Leadership Monitor 85, August 31, 2025, https://www.prcleader.org/post/changing-course-in-a-storm-china-s-economy-in-the-trade-war.

• Hannah Miao, “Tiger Moms Battle for the Hottest Ticket in China: a Tour of a Factory Floor,” The Wall Street Journal, January 3, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/travel/the-hardest-reservation-in-china-is-a-factory-tour-3df0d4cc.

• Kaiser Kuo, “The Great Reckoning: What the West Should Learn from China,” The Ideas Letter, October 16, 2025, https://www.theideasletter.org/essay/the-great-reckoning/.

• Khushboo Razdan, “Rubio swaps hawk for diplomat in year-end pivot on China,” South China Morning Post, Updated December 20, 2025, https://www.scmp.com/news/us/diplomacy/article/3337142/rubio-swaps-hawk-diplomat-year-end-pivot-china.

• Muyi Yang, Biqing Yang, Sam Butler-Sloss, Euan Graham, Xunpeng Shi, and Richard Black, “China Energy Transition Review 2025,” Ember, September 9, 2025, https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/china-energy-transition-review-2025/.

• Ryan Fedasiuk, “In Search of a China Strategy,” The American Enterprise Institute, December 15, 2025, https://theamericanenterprise.com/in-search-of-a-china-strategy/.

• Seaver Wang, Ted Nordhaus, and Vijaya Ramachandran, “Greenwashing With Chinese Characteristics,” The Ecomodernist, The Breakthrough Institute, December 12, 2025.

The Ecomodernist

Greenwashing With Chinese Characteristics

By Seaver Wang, Ted Nordhaus, and Vijaya Ramachandran…

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5 months ago · 95 likes · 1 comment

• Tiarna and Sokol, “The changing face of China’s underground club scene,” Dazed, December 5, 2025, https://www.dazeddigital.com/art-photography/article/69234/1/photography-changing-face-china-underground-club-scene-sokol-nightlife.

• Weijian Shan, “Unraveling China’s Productivity Paradox,” Gavekal Research, November 6, 2025, https://research.gavekal.com/article/unraveling-chinas-productivity-paradox/.

• William C. Kirby, “Engineering China: Birth of the Developmental State, 1928-37,” in The Pacific in the Age of Early Industrialization, ed. Kenneth Pomeranz (London: Routledge, 2009).

• Yoko Kubota, “14-Hour Shifts and $1 a Delivery—but China’s Army of Gig Workers Keeps Growing,” The Wall Street Journal, December 20, 2025, https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/14-hour-shifts-and-1-a-deliverybut-chinas-army-of-gig-workers-keeps-growing-81ce58e4.

• Zheng Xiaoqiong (trans. Eleanor Goodman), “The Makers of Modern China,” Equator, December 10, 2025, https://www.equator.org/articles/the-makers-of-modern-china.

• Zongyuan Zoe Liu, “China’s Long Economic War: How Beijing Builds Leverage for Indefinite Competition,” Foreign Affairs, December 16, 2025, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-long-economic-war-zongyuan-zoe-liu.

Note: Readers will see that most of the recommendations above are from non-Chinese sources. My unfamiliarity with the language is a challenge. To get insights from Chinese sources, I usually refer to the following newsletters and websites:

• The China Global South Project by Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden

  ChinaTalk

  Deep coverage of technology, China, and US policy. We feature original analysis alongside interviews with leading thinkers and policymakers.

  By Jordan Schneider

Tracking People's Daily

This blog primarily offers a breakdown of the weekday editions of the People's Daily.

By Manoj Kewalramani

Sinica

Podcasts, columns, and essays about current affairs in China

By Kaiser Y Kuo

• The Wire China by David Barboza

• China Open Source Observatory by the Council on Foreign Relations

Subscribe now

• In the driving seat to beat pollution, build industry

“Delhi’s air pollution crisis is reminding us that the shift towards full electric mobility at scale for India is not just desirable, but an immediate imperative… Over the past decade, India has made early strides in EV manufacturing — battery innovation, and the development of affordable electric two- and three-wheelers. But the pace of global change has accelerated dramatically. China has used electric mobility as a springboard for industrial dominance, controlling major parts of the global EV supply chain… India cannot afford to be a spectator in this race. If we do not aggressively scale electrification across all vehicle segments, we risk losing not only domestic markets but also the opportunity to become a global export hub… A clear regulatory mandate for 100% electric two- and three-wheeler sales by 2030 will send an unambiguous signal to industry… Towards this, we need to ensure that our Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency norms are in pace with global advancements… A major barrier to EV adoption, especially in urban India, is not price or performance, but access to reliable charging at home and at work… India urgently needs a national right to charge, a legal framework that guarantees EV buyers the ability to install charging points in their parking spaces, subject only to basic electrical and safety norms.” Read more: Ashok Jhunjhunwala, Hindustan Times

• Delhi’s Worst Air in Years Fuels Anger in Test for Modi’s Party

“India’s capital recorded its worst pollution in nearly a decade this winter, sparking rare public protests and criticism of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party over its handling of the air quality emergency. In November and December, when pollution in New Delhi typically peaks, the air quality index was above 300 on 88% of days, according to Bloomberg calculations based on official data. That’s the highest percentage since at least 2017… The worsening air quality this season has been an early test for Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party in its first year governing the capital after nearly two decades… Lawmakers failed to prioritize a discussion on pollution during the recent parliament session which ended about two weeks ago… Delhi Chief Minister Rekha Gupta has blamed the previous administration for failing to do enough to tackle poor air quality. She’s said her government needs at least 27 months to deliver results… The pollution crisis has sparked visible public anger this year, with residents staging rare protests against pollution in the capital.” Read more: Swati Gupta and Shinjini Datta, Bloomberg

• Record clean energy deployment drives historic decline in coal generation

“India’s power sector is experiencing rapid change as renewable energy deployment accelerates year after year. India added 41 GW of renewable energy in the first eleven months of 2025, already making a record for capacity additions during a full year, and raising the share of renewables to 40% of the country’s installed capacity… Despite the rapid acceleration of renewable energy, the government intends to add 100 GW of new coal-based capacity over the next seven years. However, India’s existing and under-construction coal fleet is already exceeding the coal capacity requirement projected by multiple resource adequacy assessments for 2030… Sustaining annual clean energy additions of around 50 GW, as required to meet the government’s 500 GW non-fossil capacity target by 2030, is sufficient to absorb incremental electricity demand over the remainder of the decade, based on the Central Electricity Authority’s (CEA) projection of power demand and supply.” Read more: Manojkumar N, Medha Mary Mathew, and Lauri Myllyvirta, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air

• India probe finds Tata Steel, JSW Steel, SAIL breached antitrust law, regulatory order shows

“India's competition watchdog has found market leaders Tata Steel, JSW Steel, state-run SAIL and 25 other firms breached antitrust law by colluding on steel selling prices, a confidential document shows, putting the companies and their executives at risk of hefty fines. The Competition Commission of India (CCI) has also held 56 top executives, including JSW’s billionaire Managing Director Sajjan Jindal, Tata Steel CEO T.V. Narendran and four former SAIL chairpersons, liable for price collusion over varying periods of time between 2015 and 2023, according to a CCI order dated October 6, which has not been made public and is being reported for the first time… The CCI investigation - the most high-profile case involving the steel industry - started in 2021 after a group of builders alleged in a criminal case brought to a state court that nine companies were collectively restricting the supply of steel and increasing prices… The CCI investigation has “found the conduct of the parties to be in contravention” of Indian antitrust law and “certain individuals have also been held liable,” the order stated.” Read more: Aditya Kalra and Neha Arora, Reuters

• Tata Power Renewable Energy to invest iNR 6,675 crore in India’s 10GW ingot & wafer plant in Nellore, Andhra Pradesh

“Tata Power Renewable Energy (TPREL) will set up a greenfield 10 GW ingot and wafer manufacturing plant - the largest in the country - with an investment of INR 6,675 crore at Nellore, Andhra Pradesh. Ingots and wafers are key raw materials used in production of semiconductor chips, solar cells and modules… The project is in line with the Centre’s policy to promote domestic manufacturing of solar equipment to reduce dependence on China for critical components… Andhra Pradesh will also allot TPREL a site for developing a captive 200 MW plant to supply the facility with green energy. Access to green energy was the key differentiator for the project, a senior government official told ET… Nellore is emerging as a hub for solar manufacturing, with leading manufacturers - including Premier Energies, Websol and Voltsun - planning projects there.” Read more: Nidhi Sharma, Economic Times

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Economy:

• Electronics component scheme scales up with Rs 41,863-crore approvals; projects spread across 8 states

“The government has cleared 22 new proposals under the Electronics Component Manufacturing Scheme (ECMS) involving Rs 41,863 crore in investment, with projected production of Rs 2.58 lakh crore and 33,791 direct jobs, marking the largest tranche of approvals under the scheme so far, the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology announced on January 2… The newly approved projects span 11 target segment products with applications across mobile phones, telecom, consumer electronics, automotive, strategic electronics and IT hardware… Unlike earlier batches that were concentrated in a few states, the latest approvals are spread across eight states — Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan… The scheme has seen strong industry response, with the ministry earlier disclosing that it had received 249 applications involving proposed investments of Rs 1.15 lakh crore, nearly double the scheme’s original investment target of Rs 59,350 crore.” Read more: Aryaman Gupta, Moneycontrol

• Changes in the World Bank’s measurement of poverty in India

“The World Bank uses either consumption or income surveys for a country to estimate how much a household would need to spend in order to afford a minimum standard of living, as well as the number of households who are below the poverty line… The Bank traditionally used India’s Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CES) in estimations of poverty. However after conducting a survey in 2011-12, the Indian government conducted no new household survey for over a decade. In this period, the World Bank used estimates from older CESs for years up to 2011, and the Consumer Pyramid Household Surveys from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy between 2012 and 2021 to generate consumption aggregates for Indian households. India’s National Statistics Office conducted a new Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) between August 2022 and July 2023. The Bank’s June 2025 update uses the data from this survey… One of the biggest changes in the new HCES was in the way reference periods were used… India’s Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) records data on all domestic consumption of households and is used by the Bank. But not all household expenditure is welfare-enhancing.” Read more: Abhishek Waghmare, Data For India

• Financial Stability Report: Macrofinancial Risks

“Domestic economic activity remained robust despite an unfavourable global backdrop. The real gross domestic product (GDP) growth surprised on the upside in both Q1:2025-26 and Q2:2025-26 at 7.8 per cent and 8.2 per cent, respectively, supported by strong private consumption and public investment… Another potential source of vulnerability is the growth of private credit. From a simple intermediation chain - where investors put money into a private credit fund or business development company (BDC) that then lends to businesses – the system has evolved in recent years into more complex chains that now include more leveraged institutions like banks and insurers. Since they are private in nature and unregulated, there is considerable opacity regarding the size and riskiness of the private credit industry… FPIs remained net sellers of Indian equities cumulatively for the fifth year in a row as India has been a relative underperformer vis-à-vis EM peers in terms of risk-adjusted dollar returns during the last two years. However, India has performed better over a longer-term horizon.” Read more: Reserve Bank of India

• Andhra Pradesh corners 25.3% of FY26 investments

“Reflecting an uptick in sentiment, fresh investments plans unveiled in the first nine months of 2025-26 (FY26) have risen 11.5 percent to INR 26.62 trillion, with the private sector accounting for nearly 90 percent of this tally, according to a Bank of Baroda report on the investment climate. Over a quarter of these investments are planned in Andhra Pradesh, which has emerged as the biggest magnet for new investment proposals so far this year, followed by Odisha, which has secured 13.1 percent of planned outlays… A significant chunk of these investments, worth INR 10 trillion, were announced in the just-concluded October-December 2025 quarter, marking a 16.2 percent increase on a quarter to quarter basis… About half of the new investments in the first nine months of this fiscal are in the infrastructure sector, led by electricity that accounted for 22.6 percent of outlays, most of it in the renewable energy space.” Read more: Himanshi Bhardwaj, Business Standard

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Foreign Policy & Security:

• Why India-US bilateral trade arrangement is taking so long to conclude

“Why has India not yet concluded a bilateral trade deal with the United States (US), even as the two countries have quickly signed agreements with other countries?… Two main reasons: One, most countries that have concluded rapid trade deals with the US depend heavily on Washington for their security. India does not. Two, the US-India trade talks go far beyond trade and extend into strategic and policy areas of interest to Washington. These two factors make the negotiations complex and explain why a deal is taking longer than many expect… Washington is pushing India to reshape key domestic policies to suit US interests — ranging from regulation and technology to energy and geopolitics… On trade access, India has shown flexibility. It is willing to eliminate tariffs on nearly 95 percent of US industrial exports and lower duties on products such as almonds, apples and avocados. Yet Washington continues to push for unrestricted access for dairy and genetically-modified crops, including corn and soy-beans — an issue deeply sensitive in India due to environmental, political and social concerns… India has already made many concessions. It should avoid offering more before an agreement is reaching — otherwise, these will be absorbed and followed by new demands.” Read more: Ajay Srivastava, Business Standard

• Indian Embassy hired Trump aide’s firm for talks on trade, bilateral ties during Operation Sindoor

“The Indian Embassy in Washington reached out to three senior officials of the Trump administration on May 10, 2025, the day a ceasefire following Operation Sindoor was announced. It approached White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Ricky Gill at the National Security Council to discuss “media coverage” of the conflict, says a filing by a U.S. lobby firm with the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ). While the filing, including 60 entries made in December 2025 on the DoJ’s Foreign Agent Registration Act (FARA) website doesn’t divulge whether the calls were made before or after the ceasefire, they indicate close interaction on the day… The Filings by U.S. lobby firm SHW LLC raised eyebrows amongst diplomats in Delhi as the firm also claimed that it set up meetings for several Indian officials- from External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, to Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, Dy NSA Pavan Kapoor and even Indian Ambassador Vinay Kwatra with top Trump administration officials over the past year… While the Embassy has always contracted 2-3 lobbyists at a time, to consult them on working with the Democrat and Republican parties, this is the first time a lobby firm has been asked to set up meetings with US officials, as also to schedule calls with government officials.” Read more: Suhasini Haidar, The Hindu

• What Good is Great Power Status for India?

“New Delhi’s foreign policy ambitions are often couched in high-sounding, cryptic language. But, evidently, it increasingly envisions a world order dominated by a few great powers, including itself. The issue has come to the forefront in the last few months owing to the US President Donald Trump’s bullying tactics in the ongoing Indo-US trade dispute. The squabble has pushed New Delhi to proclaim its quest to become a great power all the more loudly… Although India is better positioned than most countries to stake a claim to become a pole in a multipolar world, it is not preordained to do so. The pursuit of great power status is a choice. And one that India does not need to make. Great power status would likely end up costing the country more than it would be worth. To become a pole is economically pricey, diplomatically challenging, and will place India at the frontline of geopolitical power competition… Rather than promote multipolarity, its best bet may be to lead a collective charge against polarity altogether. To do so requires boldness of vision and shedding the infatuation with the doctrine of realpolitik.” Read more: Sandeep Bhardwaj, The India Forum

• ‘Bizarre’: New Delhi on Wang Yi claim that Beijing mediated between India, Pakistan

“Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said on Tuesday “tensions between India and Pakistan” were among issues “mediated” by Beijing this year, a claim that went against New Delhi’s assertion that a conflict in May ended following talks between Indian and Pakistani military officials. Wang made the claim while speaking at the “Symposium on the International Situation and China’s Foreign Relations” in Beijing… There was no reaction from Indian officials to Wang’s remarks, though people familiar with the matter said China played no role in the cessation of hostilities between India and Pakistan in May… “The claim by the Chinese side is bizarre,” one of the people cited above said. The people reiterated that talks between senior military officials of India and Pakistan alone led to the understanding to end military actions on May 10… China’s role in the conflict between India and Pakistan in May has come under scrutiny, with numerous reports suggesting that Beijing provided real-time surveillance and other assistance to Islamabad. Chinese-origin weapon systems, including combat jets, missiles and radars, also played a key role in the conflict.” Read more: Rezaul H. Laskar, Hindustan Times

People & Politics:

• Discriminatory social norms and early childhood development

“Child malnutrition is a pressing issue in India, with nearly one-third of children under five classified as stunted—a condition that reflects chronic undernutrition and has far-reaching consequences for human capital development. These outcomes are not uniformly distributed: persistent inequalities in child health outcomes exist along lines of caste and religion, reinforcing cycles of disadvantage… While the role of socioeconomic factors in shaping child health disparities is well-studied, there is less clarity on the extent to which these differences can be attributed to structural and historical factors… To what extent do caste-based mechanisms, shaped by geographic patterns, contribute to child health inequalities, particularly in terms of childhood stunting? To address this, we draw on data from the National Family Health Survey-2015-16 (NFHS-IV) for India, and begin by providing a detailed description of the extent and geographical pattern of caste-based gaps in stunting. Our analysis reveals that the gap in child heights is evident across all age profiles (0–60 months) and remains roughly constant at around 0.40 standard deviation units (relative to the world reference median) in favor of UC-Hindu children.” Read more: Ashwini Deshpande and Rajesh Ramachandran, Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organisation

• How ECI’s dubious software branded 3.66 crore voters in West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh as suspects

“The untested software deployed by the Election Commission of India (ECI) without written instructions, protocols and manuals, red-flagged 1.31 crore voters in West Bengal and 2.35 crore voters in Madhya Pradesh as suspicious, putting their voting rights in jeopardy… Crores of other voters were earmarked as suspicious across 10 other states that are undergoing voter reregistration as part of ECI’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR), independent sources confirmed… The Reporters’ Collective accessed the suspect list summary of two states, which were drawn up in the first half of December. Data from these records are being made public for the first time. The ECI has kept such details for all 12 states undergoing the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter rolls locked away from public scrutiny… Detailed tests were not carried out in each state to verify the quality of this digitisation – whether computers could read these records and match them with voters’ inputs properly or not. This likely led to software misidentifying voters as suspicious, a senior ECI official in the state confirmed to The Reporters’ Collective. ECI’s regulations require that whenever doubts are raised about a voter’s rights, these are resolved by a ground verification and a formal hearing by election officials at the constituency level.” Read more: Ayushi Kar and Nitin Sethi, The Reporters’ Collective

• ‘Govt doesn’t understand civil society’: Climate activist Harjeet Singh after ED raid

“Two days after the Enforcement Directorate accused Satat Sampada Private Limited of misusing foreign funds to influence government policies and undermine India’s energy security, its director and climate activist Harjeet Singh has denied all the allegations against him and his outfit. Singh was arrested and later granted bail in an excise case on Tuesday after the ED claimed to have found “excess liquor” at his home in Ghaziabad during searches… The agency alleged that the company had received Rs 6 crore in foreign funds from international NGOs such as Climate Action Network and STAND.EARTH since 2021. It also claimed the funds “were actually intended to promote the agenda of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty within India”… A climate activist for over 25 years, he rejected the ED’s allegation that he influenced government decision-making. “I have never worked with the government,” he said, adding that the government had failed to understand civil society’s position on climate change.” Read more: Shivnarayan Rajpurohit, Newslaundry

• Questions over Gram Sabha records for Vedanta’s Sijimali Bauxite project in Odisha

“On December 8, 2023, a Friday infused with the chill of early winter, Pabitra Naik received word that a police battalion was headed towards his village. Like many others in Bundel, located in the verdant Sijimali hills of southern Odisha, the 35-year-old fled into the forests. A bauxite mine had been proposed nearby, and police often detained anyone who vocally opposed it, Pabitra said… The next day, their phones buzzed with calls and messages. Local media had reported that the district administration had “successfully” conducted Gram Sabhas (village councils) across 10 villages, including Bundel… “There was no notice of a Gram Sabha, and no one in the village attended it. Only the women were in the village, and they told us that the police had brought people from Kashipur who were holding posters. Police and officials clicked photographs and videos,” Pabitra said. Documents obtained from the district administration through the Right to Information Act show that these Gram Sabhas—whose approvals are mandatory under law to grant mining permissions—had “unanimously consented” to the diversion of large tracts of forest land for the proposed bauxite mine. The documents also show that Pabitra participated in the Bundel Gram Sabha and consented to the project. Pabitra saw his signature for the first time in mid-2025 when this reporter showed him the “official Gram Sabha resolution”.” Read more: Mahmodul Hassan, Frontline

• Cults of personality pervade all levels of Indian politics

“Placing personality at the centre of politics is not new in India. Supporters of Indira Gandhi, an autocratic prime minister, famously conflated her with the nation itself, claiming that “India is Indira and Indira is India.” But Mr Modi’s party has perfected the art. And other politicians are catching on. Supporters of Subrahmaniam Jaishankar, the foreign minister, promote their man on social media as a no-nonsense negotiator with lasers shooting from his eyes. Nitin Gadkari, the minister for roads, is projected as the only thing standing between a national infrastructure buildout and a return to bullock carts on rutted tracks… Such behaviour is not restricted to the bjp and its allies. In states run by the opposition, the local satrap is usually as inescapable as Mr Modi is in the rest of the country. In West Bengal it is impossible to get away from Mamata Banerjee, the chief minister, whose image is plastered across walls and public spaces with a devotion usually reserved for Bengali mothers… With 1.45bn people, 28 states, vast economic disparities and weak public services, India is too complex to be run by a handful of well-recognised individuals, no matter how energetic or gifted they might be. Personality politics comes at the cost of building up institutions and state capacity that can survive bad leaders and incompetent officials.” Read more: The Economist

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Tech:

• Move over, Malaysia? India’s emerging OSAT sector claims price parity in legacy packaging

“India’s first wave of OSAT facilities is moving from capacity announcements to competitive positioning, with some domestic players now benchmarking themselves against established backend hubs rather than solely against local peers. Gujarat-based Suchi Semicon has indicated that it has reached price parity with established OSAT providers in Southeast Asia, while acknowledging that China’s high-volume manufacturing still offers lower costs. “Excluding China, we are highly competitive on pricing,” said Shetal Mehta, director of Suchi Semicon. “Compared with Malaysia, Singapore, and even Taiwan, several customers have told us they find our pricing attractive and are keen to move forward.”… Suchi’s initial OSAT manufacturing focused on SOIC packaging. The facility, which began processing wafers from December 2024, is currently operating at what the company describes as low-volume manufacturing and qualification levels… When asked about pricing competitiveness against OSAT providers in Malaysia and Vietnam, Mehta pointed to both operational and policy factors… The company did not quantify the relative contribution of structural cost advantages versus government support. Mehta also acknowledged that China’s backend ecosystem remains more cost-competitive.” Read more: Aby Thomas, DigiTimes

• Hyderabad start-ups test and intergrate mini-satellite in Ahmedabad, ship to Sriharikota for ISRO PSLV launch

“Two Hyderabad-based space tech start-ups — TakeMe2Space and EON Space Labs — have completed testing and integration of a 14-kilogram Earth observation satellite and a miniature space telescope in Ahmedabad and shipped the payload to Sriharikota for launch later this month. The satellite, which will be placed in low Earth orbit at around 500-kilometre altitude, is designed to beam back data for both commercial and defence purposes throughout its projected three-five year lifespan… The satellite and telescope gear will now join around 18 other co-passenger payloads on ISRO’s PSLV mission… MOI-1 is the start-up’s first satellite from TakeMe2Space’s planned constellation for an orbital data centre. EON Space Labs, with its space telescope MIRA — developed to meet NASA-equivalent standards for thermal-vacuum testing — is the electro-optics partner.” Read more: Avinash Nair, The Hindu BusinessLine

Bonus:

• Tangible hope

“This is a truly fascinating time to be an educator, particularly in India. During the past year, in India, the first batch of universities that adopted the new, four-year undergraduate programme under the National Education Policy 2020 scheme (I belong to one such university) welcomed its first-ever fourth year. India continued a string of rapid strides in technological development in the international arena. And worldwide, large language model-driven AI tools challenged every aspect of education as we know it, with widespread disruption in Indian institutions at all levels. Unusually for Indian university education, this final year has the option of an original research thesis. This has been a practice that has been followed at a handful of elite institutions such as IITs and IISERs for a while now, but now, for the first time, all universities in the country adopting the NEP are asked to implement this option… Slowly but inexorably, AI has shown the capacity for pushing students up the cognitive ladder. In the coming years, they will no longer be graded on the capacity for retrieving information, but on curation, critique, debate and interpretation.” Read more: Somak Raychaudhury, The Telegraph

• Repository of sessions from the Emerging Markets Conference 2025

Watch/listen:

• What India’s Economy Looks Like in 2026 | Neelkanth Mishra in conversation with Sameer Shetty | Open Dialogue by Axis Bank

• A Call for an Indian Political Theory | Lecture by Yogendra Yadav | JNU Lecture Series

This edition includes some of the more interesting and informative articles and reports I read this year (not necessarily published in 2025). Thematically, this post focuses on India. This is the first in a series of three posts. The second edition will consists of recommendations of works that focus on China, and the third edition will include texts that looks at climate- and energy-related issues.

This list includes works on the disinformation machinery in Indian politics, reports on the state of manufacturing competitiveness in India, an article on human-tiger conflicts in Maharashtra, the state of and possibilities within the India-EU relationship, a technical report on energy storage in India and more. Hopefully this has something for everyone.

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I have arranged the recommendations alphabetically and annotated the list in parts, highlighting key data points. Please do share this edition of Indialog with your friends and colleagues. On to the recommendations —

• Amogh Dhar Sharma, “Political Finance and Patronage Behind Disinformation: Evidence from India’s Election Campaigns,” International Journal of Communication 19 (2025): 2342–60.

Note: Sharma draws on a decade-long research project and extensive fieldwork to better understand the ‘disinformation machinery’ in Indian politics. He notes that “political disinformation has become a technologically sophisticated, professionally driven enterprise” (2343). This machinery consists of “political consulting firms, pollsters, public relations experts, advertising agencies, data analysts, social media influencers, and digital media volunteers affiliated with political parties” as well as “elusive social media “trolls” who engage in covert online activities” (2344).

• Anirudh Suri, The Missing Pieces in India’s AI Puzzle: Talent, Data, and R&D (New Delhi: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace India, 2025).

• Avantika Goswami and Trishant Dev, Towards a New Green World: Clean Tech Manufacturing in India (New Delhi: Centre for Science and Environment, 2025).

Note: Goswami and Dev have authored an excellent report outlining the structural challenges that bedevil Global South actors - how do you decarbonise while “simultaneously undergoing structural industrialisation”? (9). The four barriers include: i) prohibitive finance and subsidy asymmetries, ii) subordinate positioning in global value chains, iii) restrictive global trade and technology regimes, and iv) divergent national strategies that illustrate the trade-offs (case studies include production of electric vehicles in China, resource nationalism in Indonesia, solar manufacturing in India, and auto assembly in Mexico). The report is chockfull of insightful graphics (for instance, see Fig. 1).

• Bhavesh Mittal, Kevin Russell, and Rajat Dhawan, India’s Future Arenas: Engines of Growth and Dynamism (Mumbai: McKinsey & Company, July 2025).

Note: The McKinsey team set out to identify ‘transformative’ sectors which could “experience significant growth, technological advancements, and sustained investment dynamics” (2). They found 18 such ‘arenas’ of which nine are ones where “Indian companies could attain disproportionate growth through distinctly Indian capabilities” and the remaining nine are ‘national’ arenas “that could advance long-term strategic interests and fuel growth in a uniquely India-specific context” (2; see Fig. 2 & 3).

• Christopher Clary, Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025 (Washington DC: Stimson Centre, 2025).

Note: Possibly the most detailed paper on the 4-day India-Pakistan conflict. As Clary notes, the conflict represented a number of military firsts including the use of Indian cruise missiles on Pakistan, the use of Pakistani conventionally armed short-range ballistic missiles on India, and extensive drone warfare.

• Jaideep Hardikar, “A fateful triangle: tigers, humans and development,” People’s Archive of Rural India, August 25, 2025.

Note: A searing read on bloody human-tiger conflict in the eastern Vidarbha region of Maharashtra. Hardikar provides insight into what happens when a growing human population, with its varied socio-economic needs, has to live next to a rising number of wild cats and other animals. A must-read.

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• James Crabtree, Pivot to Europe: India’s back-up plan in Trump’s world (European Council on Foreign Relations, 2025).

• Maansi Verma, “Agenda Control in the Indian Parliament and the Impact on Its Oversight Function: Analysis and Evidence,” Socio-Legal Review 18, no. 1 (2022): 23–50.

• Neelanjan Sircar and Rahul Verma, “What Does the 2024 National Election Reveal About India?” Indian Politics & Policy 5, no. 1 (Summer 2025).

• Nikit Abhyankar, Umed Paliwal, Sambit Basu & Himanshu Chawla, Strategic Pathways for Energy Storage in India through 2032 (Berkeley: India Energy and Climate Center [IECC], 2025).

Note: This report unpacks key aspects of energy storage in India including required capacity, optimal locations, duration, technologies, costs, and the policy environment. Some key findings and data points include: i) India will need 61 GW/218 GWh of energy storage by 2030 and 97 GW/362 GWh by 2032 to ensure grid reliability (III), ii) co-locating storage with solar is cost-effective, and iii) additional coal capacity isn’t needed if storage is deployed (see Fig. 4).

• Prerna Prabhakar, Sanjay Kathuria, and T. G. Srinivasan, “Why Is India Struggling with Manufacturing Competitiveness?,” Working Paper, Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP), May 8, 2025.

Note: The authors examine the core issues that “prevent India from attaining manufacturing competitiveness” (9). Interestingly, some of the policy prescriptions the authors put forth have been actioned by the Central and some State Governments, including changes in labor laws, R&D focused initiatives, and the re-examination of Quality Control Orders.

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• PRS Legislative Research, “Vital Stats: Profile of the 18th Lok Sabha,” PRS, June 5, 2024.

Note: Key datapoints from this report - i) 41 parties were elected to the 18th Lok Sabha (compared to 36 in the 17th Lok Sabha), ii) 52% of newly-elected Members of Parliament (MPs) are first-timers in Lok Sabha, iii) average age of MPs in the 18th Lok Sabha is 56 years, iv) 74 MPs (14%) in the 18th Lok Sabha are women, v) 78% of the MPs in the 18th Lok Sabha have completed at least undergraduate education, and vi) the most common professions among the elected MPs include agriculture and social work.

• Satish Deshpande, “Caste and Castelessness: Towards a Biography of the ‘General Category’,” Economic and Political Weekly 48, no. 15 (April 13, 2013): 32–39.

• Shoumitro Chatterjee, Kala Krishna, Kalyani Padmakumar & Yingyan Zhao, “No Country for Dying Firms: Evidence from India,” NBER Working Paper No. 33830, National Bureau of Economic Research, 2025.

Note: Barriers to exit “can stifle firm creation and dampen economic dynamism” and India has high exit costs; the authors point out that “manufacturing in India has one of the lowest firm exit rates in the world” (1-2; see Fig. 5). These barriers “reduce [firm] entry, misallocate resources, and create a long right tail in the age distribution of firms” (2). What does this look like in real terms? The authors find that the voluntary closure of a firm takes approximately 4.3 years of which “2.8 years are spent alone on obtaining clearances and security refunds from various government departments like Income Tax, Provident Fund, Goods and Services Tax, etc” (7).

• Suhasini Haidar, “A year of dissipating promises for Indian foreign policy,” The Hindu (December 26, 2025).

Note: If you want to read one article that covers the profound challenges that Indian foreign policymakers had to grapple with in 2025, this is it.

• Swati Verma, Tech Transfers through FDI in India: Mode, Extent and Prospects (New Delhi: Institute for Studies in Industrial Development [ISID], 2020).

• Varun Aggarwal et al, State of Industry R&D in India 2024 (New Delhi: Foundation for Advancing Science and Technology, India, 2024).

Note: The authors identified six industry sectors (i) aerospace and defence, ii) automobile and components, iii) chemicals, iv) energy, v) pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and life sciences, and vi) software and services) and studied the R&D intensity of 20 firms within each sector (see Fig. 6). Of these chosen firms, 10 were Indian and 10 were global (based on market cap). The authors find that “Indian firms lag behind their global counterparts in most input and output parameters of R&D studied" (20).

• World Bank and Asian Development Bank, Cities as Growth Hubs: Knowledge Framework (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025).

Note: In 2022, 37% of Indians lived in urban areas. By 2050, this figure will rise to an estimated 50% (1). If India is to achieve its economic goals, cities will play a fundamental role; however the challenge is that while megacities, mid-to-large and small cities face similar challenges, “there are differences between these cities in terms of scale, governance structures, and growth drivers” (8). Given that there can be no ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach to urban growth hubs (see Fig. 7), the authors propose the ‘Urban Growth Hub Knowledge Framework.’

• World Bank, India: An Industrializing Economy in Transition, World Bank Country Study (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1989).

Note: Reading this 1989 World Bank report on the Indian economy makes for an interesting exercise. To restructure and reorient industrial growth, the report recommended specific measures to promote exports, coordinated measures to relax government controls on firm-level decision making, phasing out of direct import controls, and the creation of new tariff structures (205).